When will we contend again?

[TassieSaint]

Just a quick thread to judge the optimism/pessimism of Saints fans about the (near) future. When will we contend again? I would define contend for the purposes of this thread as being top 4 and a genuine premiership threat (i.e. not us in 2008)

This is more to judge where most supporters think we're at in terms of our immediate future, obviously as Melbourne have shown, despite the draft the AFL is not a cycle and we aren't assured a top 4 spot given a certain amount of time.

Also if Saints fans only could vote. I'm happy to hear opposition input that isn't a troll, but I'm more interested in where we see ourselves.

 

[L_W_P]

Voted 2016.

I think the next 2 drafts will be used to top up on KPP talent and they will take a couple of years to develop into big enough bodies to play 20+ games. Our backline and midfield will be fine, just a matter of getting our Stanley/Saad/Siposs based forward line a little more support.

Who knows with FA though? Roo, Kosi, Lenny, Fish and Milne could retire next year and we could go and grab (for example) Josh Kennedy x 2, Eddie Betts, Grant Birchall and Jarryd Roughead on million dollar deals to replace them. That would see us back up pretty quickly hahaha

 

[Squizz]

No idea TBH.

Riewoldt, Fisher, Hayes, Milne, Montagna to replace in (say) 2 seasons.

And Dal Santo, Dempster, Gram and Schneider in maybe 3 seasons.

Don't think any of them are going to be in career-best form in future years (albeit they may be able to maintain their performances at a good level).

Geez, that's going to be tough.

Not sure the same star power is coming through.

I can see a competitive team, but to challenge we'll need an extraordinary strike rate in the drafts ahead (either plucking stars with ordinary picks or nailing pretty much every pick).

 

[Mister E]

2016 for me based on previous teams

Saints 2004 very good and 2009 real contender

West Coast 2006 top two and 2011 top 4

Sydney 2006 " and 2012 top 4

Hawthorn 2008 and 2012

About 4-6 years to get up again

 

[Axcellence]

2013 or 2016-17. Next year is still a possibility if everything goes well at draft and trade table. After that, it's a long long breath as until draftees mature.

 

[Present Not Past]

I voted 2014. We will definitely be back into the finals by then after two seasons of a new coach and a rebuilding phase, and if you're in the finals you have a chance. Also, it will be the last chance for our veteran brigade to play for a flag. Scotty will have the team he wants by then and playing the style that he wants. He will be keen to taste success again as well. Sadly after then it could be a few more years before the young brigade is fully ready.

 

[hayes]

I think it's time to start looking at the future. Mentioned this a few times but I think the age gap between the core guys and the ones coming through is too big to contend.

So now it's about finding out who the next core will be. These are the guys I'm confident will make it:

Stanley
Steven
Siposs
Simpkin
Saad
Milera
Armo
Newnes
Cripps
Ledger
Seb
Markworth
Dunell

Throw in guys who have already arrived like Gilbert, Gwilt, Macca, Wilkes, Geary and a couple of maybes in Curren and Ferguson and we've got plenty to work with. The problem is most of them have played under 20 games so in a couple of years there might be some short term pain. Not sure how many A graders are in there but I'm not ready to put limitations on their potential yet.

Bit concerned about how good GC and especially GWS will be in a few years just quietly so we really can't afford to waste many picks at all including rookies.

To sum up I think it's at least three years til we contend. Enjoyed the run we had with this core but really excited to see where the next one will take us.

 

[Plugger35]

No reason we can't finish top 4 and contend again next year, it will depend on our older players still playing well, our younger players improving, how we go in the trade/draft periods and not getting too many injuries next year but we weren't too far off this year even with come crucial injuries, shit umpiring and adjusting to a new game plan.

Beyond that who knows but I think we will at least be competitive and around the top 8 mark. Watters is a pretty competitive coach that will demand success so I don't see us dropping away too much under him.

 

[stkildathunda]

I think it's time to start looking at the future. Mentioned this a few times but I think the age gap between the core guys and the ones coming through is too big to contend.

So now it's about finding out who the next core will be. These are the guys I'm confident will make it:

Stanley
Steven
Siposs
Simpkin
Saad
Milera
Armo
Newnes
Cripps
Ledger
Seb
Markworth
Dunell

Throw in guys who have already arrived like Gilbert, Gwilt, Macca, Wilkes, Geary and a couple of maybes in Curren and Ferguson and we've got plenty to work with. The problem is most of them have played under 20 games so in a couple of years there might be some short term pain. Not sure how many A graders are in there but I'm not ready to put limitations on their potential yet.

Bit concerned about how good GC and especially GWS will be in a few years just quietly so we really can't afford to waste many picks at all including rookies.

To sum up I think it's at least three years til we contend. Enjoyed the run we had with this core but really excited to see where the next one will take us.

That gap is why I reckon we will see few more mature aged guys traded in and possibly drafted. Pelchan/Watters have made mention of this alot that we have basically no players 25-29

 

[Baldur]

2013 or 2016-17. Next year is still a possibility if everything goes well at draft and trade table. After that, it's a long long breath as until draftees mature.

My position pretty much, if we do not grab another chance next year with our present crop of senior guys, then we will need to wait until the younger guys get around 25-26.

 

[FlyingSledghamer]

How can you really tell when we'll be premiership contenders again. Even if our team improves dramatically with the development of our youth. You cant factor in the improvement accross the board with the other teams. I can see GWS being a power house in a few years. Both the new teams have a plethora of talented youth. Teams like richmond north brisbane all look like there also ahead of us with quality youth. When our champs retire we could be in for another 1980's type era. This happens when youve been up the top of the ladder for the most part of the decade. I see us finishing anywhere between 5th-10th for the next 3 years n then then maybe a mini slide with the complete exodus of the remaining current champs. You just dont get the Cotchins n the Nic Nats for being around the mark for 10 years.

 

[SaintsSeptember]

How can you really tell when we'll be premiership contenders again. Even if our team improves dramatically with the development of our youth. You cant factor in the improvement accross the board with the other teams. I can see GWS being a power house in a few years. Both the new teams have a plethora of talented youth. Teams like richmond north brisbane all look like there also ahead of us with quality youth. When our champs retire we could be in for another 1980's type era. This happens when youve been up the top of the ladder for the most part of the decade. I see us finishing anywhere between 5th-10th for the next 3 years n then then maybe a mini slide with the complete exodus of the remaining current champs. You just dont get the Cotchins n the Nic Nats for being around the mark for 10 years.

Yeah.
We play games like dreamteam at the start of the season, using our prescient skills to pick which players will be guns and which will fizzle out.
We think Carlton will be contesting the flag at the end of 2012.
Dustin Martin was going to have a massive year, and Brock McLean was past it.
We looked on jealously as other teams drafted incredible young talent like Watts, Gysberts, and Palmer.

Players like Steven, McEvoy, Stanley, and Sippos have massive potential upsides, but we won't know until it happens.
Is Cotchin better than Selwood, or Swan?
Is Gysberts better than Geary?

 

[TassieSaint]

How can you really tell when we'll be premiership contenders again. Even if our team improves dramatically with the development of our youth. You cant factor in the improvement accross the board with the other teams. I can see GWS being a power house in a few years. Both the new teams have a plethora of talented youth. Teams like richmond north brisbane all look like there also ahead of us with quality youth. When our champs retire we could be in for another 1980's type era. This happens when youve been up the top of the ladder for the most part of the decade. I see us finishing anywhere between 5th-10th for the next 3 years n then then maybe a mini slide with the complete exodus of the remaining current champs. You just dont get the Cotchins n the Nic Nats for being around the mark for 10 years.

I get what your saying mate this threads more to see where our list is at in this boards opinion. The results seem to show 2 main camps, a smaller one thinking we can get back up next year mostly with our 09-10 core and a larger one thinking we'll need to stay down for a few years and wait for some new blokes to come through. Of course those blokes could never end up coming through, but success stories like Sydney Adelaide and West Coast should give us hope (not to mention Geelong, who have transitioned young blokes into the team really well whilst staying up).

For comparisons sake, have a look at Sydney. They were up for a long time from about 01 til 09 when they finished 12th. This year their main contributers have either been guys from 05/06 (O'Keefe, Bolton, Richards, Goodes, McVeigh), unwanted guys they picked up for not much (Kennedy, McGlynn, Mumford) and some rookies that have come through (Grundy, Jack). Lewis Jetta was pick 14, a pick they got for Darren Jolly.

Incidentally their pickups in that 09 off season were Jetta, Kennedy, McGlynn, Mumford, Sam Reid, Gary Rohan, Dennis-Lane and Mark Seaby. Emulating that 'rebuild' is no easy feat but it can be done, and in the Swans case it only took 1 year.

 

[aussierulesrules]

Depends on how we play our cards at the trade table and draft table in the next couple of months, as I said in the other thread (St Kilda List Management: De-Listments, Trades, Drafting & Free Agency). I genuinely believe that we have enough talent on the list that if we bring it into better balance in the next couple of months and fill the gaps we have well, we can shoot right back up the ladder again next year, if we continue to improve our disposal and tighten up our defence again, especially.

We finished with 12 wins this year and a % of 123. We lost 4 games by 8 points or less and another couple which were similarly close contests till the very end (Freo, and Sydney in Sydney). If we had just won the 4 we lost by 8 or less, we would have finished 4th. If we'd won all 6 of those extremely close games we would have finished top 2, from memory (all things being equal). We had the 5th best % in the comp and were the 4th highest scoring team. We also had some major injuries in areas that we had little depth in, which severely disrupted our structure, for sometimes weeks at a time and also had a shitload of 6 day breaks, including 3 in a row, which could have easily cost us the Richmond game.

So we were not that far off it and that was despite Scotty being in his 1st year of coaching an AFL team (which got off to a very slow start, after our very interrupted NAB Cup campaign- no game against Essendon and then 13 minute plus time-on quarters against WC, in Perth, the following week, in 36 deg heat) and not officially starting his job until the first day of trade week last year!

He will have learned a lot this year and will hopefully be able to go into next season more relaxed and less stressed than he probably did this year and he and Pelchan have now had ample time to assess our list and see where the imbalances are and which areas we badly need to target. If they are able to successfully plug the holes we have on the list, by maybe reducing the number of excessive options we have in other areas of it, it could make a hell of a difference to our team for next year and if other things go our way, we could be right back in the mix again.

We were extremely competitive against most of the best teams when we played relatively well this year and won 3 games convincingly against teams that were in either the top 2, or 4, at the time we played them, so the gap we need to bridge is not as much as many/most think. Almost all of our older "stars" would need to play close to their best for this to happen, though, that's for sure.

Roo would need his knee to continue to improve and he would need to have a year close to his best form and we'd need to have BJ re-sign and get back close to his best as well. Gilbert and Gram (if both retained) would also need to continue their improved form from the 2nd half of the season and we'd ideally need Fisher back for most games and back to his best across HB. Gwilt would also need to get back closer to his pre-reco best and we'd want Dal to get back closer to his best of 2011. Beau would also need to really step up and kick at least 35 goals. We'd also need a pretty decent run with injuries.

Above all we'd need to get our "mojo" from a couple of years back. I still think there were a lot of mental scars this year (that scared us off from winning some of those close games that we used to win), but if they are lessened again next year and we bring in some more fresh faces, who have enthusiasm and energy and no fear, then we could really start to believe again and not see opportunities as another chance to fail, but a chance to succeed.

A lot of "ifs" I realise, but I can definitely see how it could happen. If it doesn't, who knows when we'll be in serious contention again. Could be bloody ages!

 

[hayes]

I guess if we get a key defender or heaven forbid maybe even two and some hard calls are made we could probably give it another crack next year. That would solidify the defense, free up Fisher and Gwilt to make us even better offensively and the best part about that would be they're two of our better ball users instead of relying on someone like Geary or Gram kicking it. If we bring in Siposs and Dunell there's another two guys that are really good kicks of the ball and suddenly our biggest flaw might even become a strength.

Just get the feeling whenever I hear Watters speak he's looking more at 3-5 years away and I think the age gap is why. He pretty much let it slip in an interview at the start of the season that our next premiership side might be 3-5 years away and lately has spoken about trying to pump games into the younger players.

 

[aussierulesrules]

I guess if we get a key defender or heaven forbid maybe even two and some hard calls are made we could probably give it another crack next year. That would solidify the defense, free up Fisher and Gwilt to make us even better offensively and the best part about that would be they're two of our better ball users instead of relying on someone like Geary or Gram kicking it. If we bring in Siposs and Dunell there's another two guys that are really good kicks of the ball and suddenly our biggest flaw might even become a strength.

Exactly. There's no doubt in my mind that if we did some juggling of the list and made a couple of hard calls, we could pretty much instantly make our side significantly stronger and have it start playing to its strengths again. We cost ourselves so many games this year with our poor kicking (both around the ground and for goal) and through having gaping holes at FB and back-up ruck it wasn't funny.

Just improve those two aspects alone and we could be a 2-3 goal better side each week. We have the "assets" on our list to make this happen.

As for being in contention again in 3-5 years, that would put us in the firing line of GWS and GC and their young talent is going to be miles better than ours, I expect.

 

[It Was A Good Day]

I agree with Plugger..

Also, definitely need to draft/trade for another half decent key back and a ruck to support Big Boy

 

[aussierulesrules]

I agree with Plugger..

Also, need to draft/trade for another key back and a ruck to support Big Boy

I wonder if our recruiting/coaching staff have thought of that though?

 

[It Was A Good Day]

I wonder if our recruiting/coaching staff have thought of that though?

 

[FlyingSledghamer]

I get what your saying mate this threads more to see where our list is at in this boards opinion. The results seem to show 2 main camps, a smaller one thinking we can get back up next year mostly with our 09-10 core and a larger one thinking we'll need to stay down for a few years and wait for some new blokes to come through. Of course those blokes could never end up coming through, but success stories like Sydney Adelaide and West Coast should give us hope (not to mention Geelong, who have transitioned young blokes into the team really well whilst staying up).

For comparisons sake, have a look at Sydney. They were up for a long time from about 01 til 09 when they finished 12th. This year their main contributers have either been guys from 05/06 (O'Keefe, Bolton, Richards, Goodes, McVeigh), unwanted guys they picked up for not much (Kennedy, McGlynn, Mumford) and some rookies that have come through (Grundy, Jack). Lewis Jetta was pick 14, a pick they got for Darren Jolly.

Incidentally their pickups in that 09 off season were Jetta, Kennedy, McGlynn, Mumford, Sam Reid, Gary Rohan, Dennis-Lane and Mark Seaby. Emulating that 'rebuild' is no easy feat but it can be done, and in the Swans case it only took 1 year.

Its a good discussion Tassie. Quite relevant. You could say were at some kind of a cross road right now and the direction of the club will be revealed by the actions it takes in the next 2 months in regards to list management.

Sydney is an ideal example of smart recruiting as you pointed out in 09. So it will be interesting to see where that leaves them in the next few years. They won't win the premiership this year though.

As to the question of when we will be contenders again in regards to our list. We have got so many holes in the list right now that we need to fix, and then there's going to be this big exodus of champion players coming up in the next few years. There is no answer to the question.... Its too far away.

 

[Axcellence]

I wonder if our recruiting/coaching staff have thought of that though?

I think they were quite deliberate last year in letting Dawson go without a replacement and and not getting a replacement for Gardiner

 

[aussierulesrules]

I think they were quite deliberate last year in letting Dawson go without a replacement and and not getting a replacement for Gardiner

That was top shelf list management, wasn't it! Probably only cost us 4 or 5 games, so no biggie.

 

[aussierulesrules]

As I said earlier in the other thread (where this question really ought to be), I like him and was hoping we'd draft him years ago, when I first heard about him (a year or two before he first got drafted). If we think he would be good enough to play pretty much permanently forward and also pinch hit in the ruck, when Mac needs a rest, then I would be willing to entertain the idea of trading someone for him. I didn't see them play much last year (or this), but I heard he had a really good year last year, and he looked a class above, when he was playing for Casey, against Sandy, a couple of months ago.

We could do a lot worse than get him. The other one I like the sound of is Hickey, from GC, so it would probably depend on who is better suited to playing forward for most of the game and how "expensive" they are. I'd imagine Martin would be the better option up forward, while Hickey would be the better option in the ruck eventually, being taller. I take it Melbourne are looking to trade Martin now that they have Mitch Clark (as well as Jamar), so would rather get something for Martin while he still has good currency, which I think is pretty smart.

As I have said plenty previously, we have way too many options for certain spots at the moment and as much as I don't particularly want to lose anyone from our list, I feel it is imperative that we do trade one or two to bring our list into better balance, unless we want to continue to slide down the ladder.

 

[TassieSaint]

Oops, mods could you please put my last post in the list management thread!

Fixed - K

 

[aussierulesrules]

After seeing Sydney continue to do so well with their "old timers" like Adam Goodes (32), Jude Bolton (32), Ryan O'Keefe (31 and in career best form), Rhys Shaw (30), Mattner (30), Ted Richards (AA team for the first time at 29), Roberts Thompson (29), Malceski (28), Pike (28), McVeigh (27), it makes me even more confident that we don't have to just "drop right away", like almost everyone seems to think we have to.

They have 5 in their current team who are listed at 30 or older, whereas next year we are likely to have 4 in our best 22 who are (Hayes (33), Milne (33), Fisher (31), Riewoldt (30 for the whole 2013 season).

We then have 5 who are likely to be in our best team who will be 29 (Dal, Dempster, Gram, Joey, Schneider), but I don't see any of them as severely "battered and bruised" and about to drop off in form any time soon (except maybe Schneider, but he is probably close to borderline anyway and hardly played this year anyway). In fact, we could confidently expect better seasons from Dal, Gram (who seems to be on the way up again, after apparently overcoming his groin problems and getting his thumping kick back) and Schneider (who's season this year was virtually a write off), as well as from Fisher and hopefully Riewoldt (who reckons his knee was on the improve in the 2nd half of the season, after new treatment from Europe), from the previous group.

After that there is Goddard (if he stays) who will be 28 and Gwilt, Gilbert, Ray and Wilkes, who all turn 27, and again, we could be confident of just about all of them having better seasons than they did this year, if we were back in contention and really had something to play for again.

After that we have the likes of Armo, Mac, Geary, Saad, Steven, Siposs, Stanley, Simpkin, Cripps, Milera and whoever we pick up this year through trading and drafting (hopefully someone for FB and back-up ruck). If we didn't lose anyone from that list, that is 24 who could easily be in our best 22 and who can all play (plus or minus any trades we do) and then we'll have the extra depth from the likes of Newnes, Ross, Dunell, Ledger, Markworth, Kosi, CJ, maybe Blake, Curren and whoever else we pick up this year.

Considering we won 12 games this year, had the 5th best % in the comp, kicked the 4th highest score (points for) for the season and lost 4 other games by 8 points or less (and two more that we were mighty close in and could have gone either way (Freo, and Sydney in Sydney), I expect that unless we go bezerk at trade week and trade away about 4 of those I mentioned above (who would be in our best 22) for 4 who won't play much, if at all, next year, then there is no reason we couldn't contend again next season if we improve in the areas that let us down badly this year and have a few other things go our way (like a good draw, which we are quite likely to have, after missing the finals this year).

Even though a lot of them are "getting on", we just have too much talent still to just be assuming we're going to drop away and to give up on contending again any time soon. If half our team was about to retire at the end of next season (as some on the main board seem to think they will!), then I would say sure, lets rebuild properly and "get lots of games into the kids", but the fact is that maybe only Hayes and Milne from that group might retire at the end of next season, so we still have a fair bit of time to gradually transition the younger ones into the side.

We may end up lacking a bit of "elite talent", if we don't drop right down and have a really poor year or two and get a bunch of very high draft picks, but the good thing in our favour now is that free agency is upon us and we will have a lot of cap space available once a couple of them retire (and especially if Goddard leaves), so we will be in a position to go hard for "elite" talent through free agency in the next few years. Remember how much getting Gehrig and Hamill at one time helped us about 10 years ago.

Sydney have shown that you don't have to "bottom out" in a big way, in order to regenerate your list and stay in contention (apparently they have only missed the finals twice in the past 15 years or something!).