Opinion Where are we at?

[Reality Check!]

With all this talk going around about trying to get pick 5 off the Saints yet still recruiting a proven 27 year old ruckman with a history of injury I think it's about time we started asking this.

Worsfold has publicly stated that he thinks our list is very good, but he hasn't laid out any expectations as to where we should be heading next year.

It's arguable about whether Essendon's 2015 season was representative of how they rank in the competition. At the start of the year we beat Hawthorn and came close to rolling a very good Sydney teamon their home turf in round one. Supporters might point to the fact that the new WADA challenge derailed our season, but honestly I thought there were some bad signs in our narrow win over Carlton and a dismal effort against Collingwood early on.

We made finals the previous year and came imo should have beaten North who progressed to the preliminary.

North again showed this year they were capable of beating top sides come finals and in our matches against them I never felt we were far off their pace, albeit they were better than us on both occassions.

Our 2 A graders are in the latter half of their seasons, referring to Jobe and Goddard (arguable about whether you should throw Heppell in that class, but he had another solid year). Jobe struggled with injury and Goddard played like he was bigger than the club sometimes.

Below that Hooker and Hurlely were exceptional. Baguley and Hibberd were decent. Stanton was his usual hard working self. Hocking, Colyer, Bellchambers went missing through injury and the last 2 looked very ordinary when they played at times. We missed Myers and Zaharakis was terrible.

There are questions over our mosquito fleet. None of them bar Z Merrett have shown anything that makes me think this guy is going to be something special in the future. Having said that I like the look of Smack, J Merrett, Laverde and Kavanaghas being solid contributors to our future. The jury is still out on Daniher. A lot of talk is made about is progression as FF and how he is tracking with goals, but for mine he still needs to work on fundamentals to build into a 60-70 goal kicker which I'm not confident he will achieve.

Then there are the older guys like Cooney who could be good but just doesn't seem to care. Gwilt was OK but not getting faster and Dempsey isn't a premiership player let's be honest.

If I could sub some guys into that 2015 West Coast team to take on the Hawks, it would be Jobe, Goddard, Heppell, Hurley, Hooker, Baguely, Hibberd, Hocking, Myers and Z Merrett. Plus Cooney, Bellchambers, Colyer and Hocking if they were on form. .
If Leunberger played to his best he could match Nic Nat.

The problem is I can't see any of the players below them taking any spot in that West Coast side. I've only listed 16 and I put a question mark over at least 7 of them going into next season.

So where are we at?

* edit forgot winderlich had retired

 

[Kakkle]

Then there are the older guys like Cooney who could be good but just doesn't seem to care. Love Winderlich but I don't know how his legs will hold up over the next year, Gwilt was OK but not getting faster and Dempsey isn't a premiership player let's be honest.

This is the best sentence on the whole website.

 

[Kakkle]

If I could sub some guys into that 2015 West Coast team to take on the Hawks, it would be Jobe, Goddard, Heppell, Hurley, Hooker, Baguely, Hibberd, Hocking, Myers and Z Merrett. Plus Cooney, Bellchambers, Colyer, Hocking and Winderlich if they were on form.
If Leunberger played to his best he could match Nic Nat.

Followed closely by this.

 

[BOMBERS 4 LIFE!!!!]

 

[Cristiano Ronaldo]

Bombers 4 Life, you are becoming one of my favorite posters

 

[hurlygurdy]

With all this talk going around about trying to get pick 5 off the Saints yet still recruiting a proven 27 year old ruckman with a history of injury I think it's about time we started asking this.

Worsfold has publicly stated that he thinks our list is very good, but he hasn't laid out any expectations as to where we should be heading next year.

It's arguable about whether Essendon's 2015 season was representative of how they rank in the competition. At the start of the year we beat Hawthorn and came close to rolling a very good Sydney teamon their home turf in round one. Supporters might point to the fact that the new WADA challenge derailed our season, but honestly I thought there were some bad signs in our narrow win over Carlton and a dismal effort against Collingwood early on.

We made finals the previous year and came imo should have beaten North who progressed to the preliminary.

North again showed this year they were capable of beating top sides come finals and in our matches against them I never felt we were far off their pace, albeit they were better than us on both occassions.

Our 2 A graders are in the latter half of their seasons, referring to Jobe and Goddard (arguable about whether you should throw Heppell in that class, but he had another solid year). Jobe struggled with injury and Goddard played like he was bigger than the club sometimes.

Below that Hooker and Hurlely were exceptional. Baguley and Hibberd were decent. Stanton was his usual hard working self. Hocking, Colyer, Bellchambers went missing through injury and the last 2 looked very ordinary when they played at times. We missed Myers and Zaharakis was terrible.

There are questions over our mosquito fleet. None of them bar Z Merrett have shown anything that makes me think this guy is going to be something special in the future. Having said that I like the look of Smack, J Merrett, Laverde and Kavanaghas being solid contributors to our future. The jury is still out on Daniher. A lot of talk is made about is progression as FF and how he is tracking with goals, but for mine he still needs to work on fundamentals to build into a 60-70 goal kicker which I'm not confident he will achieve.

Then there are the older guys like Cooney who could be good but just doesn't seem to care. Gwilt was OK but not getting faster and Dempsey isn't a premiership player let's be honest.

If I could sub some guys into that 2015 West Coast team to take on the Hawks, it would be Jobe, Goddard, Heppell, Hurley, Hooker, Baguely, Hibberd, Hocking, Myers and Z Merrett. Plus Cooney, Bellchambers, Colyer and Hocking if they were on form. .
If Leunberger played to his best he could match Nic Nat.

The problem is I can't see any of the players below them taking any spot in that West Coast side. I've only listed 16 and I put a question mark over at least 7 of them going into next season.

So where are we at?

* edit forgot winderlich had retired

Honestly, you probably need to try again... Maybe not at 2am

 

[MarkG]

Here are the facts.....

We made finals in 2014 and could/should have beaten North.

We started 2015 like a house on fire (beating Hawthorn).

2015 fell away mainly from playing TBC while injured, losing Myers and a procession of other injuries to key players.

We played a backwards and sideways 100% defensive game plan that did not work. Our forwards missed goals (lots of them) and dropped confidence.

We played our fringe players and recruits and got a taste of their capability.

Our VFL team played with confidence.

In 2016, we will have 25% of our best players back fresh and injury free.

We have found Laverde, Langford, Fantasia, Edwards, McKernan, McKenna.

We have a premiership winning coach that believes in a running offensive team, which will only help the forwards.

We have a weaker draw based on our finishing position.

We have some nice draft picks.

Prediction - top 8.

 

[eth-dog]

We're around the 9-12 area IMO. With an easier draw this season we may make the top 8 but I doubt it. Need to fix the forward line balance.

 

[Bombers36]

We're around the 9-12 area IMO. With an easier draw this season we may make the top 8 but I doubt it. Need to fix the forward line balance.

Agree with this. We'll knock off a few good sides in 2016 but forward line is the worry. Defense is great and midfield pretty good also. It's the forward line that needs tweaking

 

[MarkG]

We're around the 9-12 area IMO. With an easier draw this season we may make the top 8 but I doubt it. Need to fix the forward line balance.

McKernan could have a break out year on the forward line. He improved out of sight in 2015 when being given a genuine chance at AFL. He kicks straight and is high energy and aggressive at the ball. And a nice mark.

 

[eth-dog]

McKernan could have a break out year on the forward line. He improved out in 2015 when being given a genuine chance at AFL. He kicks straight and is high energy and aggressive at the ball. And a nice mark.

It's more than a one-player fix. The whole strategy was dysfunctional. The players there were extremely talented and coachable but it never showed anything.

 

[MarkG]

It's more than a one-player fix. The whole strategy was dysfunctional. The players there were extremely talented and coachable but it never showed anything.

They improved out of sight in kast 3 games of 2015. New game plan. Awesome to see Pies so pissed off.

 

[CBombers17]

Love Hirdy, was in no way comfortable with the line coaches integrated plan direction.

Come up with a game style and everyone works together please.

We have good tallent with obvious weaknesses.

I'm expecting inconsistancy in 2016 but with some games where it clicks to show us where we are headed in the next 5 years.

 

[blitzer]

I disagree with some of the individual statements in OP but I'm just going to focus on the overall theme which is where we are at.

Overall I'd say we are in a rebuild phase. That doesn't mean we will be stuck to the bottom forever but it means we need to bring in some new blood, move on a few older types and make use of trades/free agency and of course most importantly the draft to freshen up our list - i'd say we are looking at least another year minimum and probably two before we are really final contenders. I won't say its impossible for us to make finals next year but we would need a dream run on and off field. Hopefully we can pick up a lot of good types through the draft this year and next year to facilitate the process - we shall see how this trade period finishes but we certainly got off to a good start.

There are some guys on our list that have been better at various stages of their career and i can understand why people retain some hope that they will get back to their best but i think most of them won't get back to their best and perhaps not even close. This is including guys like Watson, Goddard, Hibberd, Dempsey etc. That said our top 10 players are still quite respectable and we have some good kids coming through but overall we have too few and not enough quality. If you want a good example look at our best and fairest from last year. Mckernan got in playing about 10 games (could have been 9) and they weren't all good (especially vs Goldstein lol) - if that's not a clear and undeniable sign about how weak the depth is in our list then i don't know what is.

The glaring issue that remains on our list is our forward line and forward structures. We never got a coherent structure that allowed us to move the ball in a way where we would be able to score reliably. Often our most successful games involved hacking the ball in there and scoring from ground level balls which was not exactly the systematic approach most of us are hoping for. Part of this issue is personnel in the forward line, part of it is not having highly skilled and hard working midfielders and part of it is just our overall structure and ball movement. This is the key onfield issue that Worsfold needs to find a way to address. For the record i firmly believe in Daniher and think he will end up becoming one of the best forwards in the comp and i think next year we will see signs of this but it will be the year after where he enters the elite category.

The one area on field where i am 100% confident we will be better in is the ruck. Our ruck situation was a ****ing joke this year. Playing an injured Bellchambers for half a season before playing a completely undersized Mckernan as primary ruck (when he should be forward/2nd ruck only). Not to mention Daniher regularly playing in the ruck (and not being any good in there - this can't have been helping his forward play either). We got decimated in that area all year. I think with Leuenberger and a fit Bellchambers we will now have some solid options to hold down that first ruck spot, we will have the option of playing Mckernan as forward/second ruck and we will be able to keep Daniher out of the ruck this will have huge flow on effects to our midfield and even forward line. I'm certain we will improve from last year in this area because last year was rubbish.

 

[kelvin_sheedy]

If we make it out of the bottom 6 it will be a miracle.

We are relying on perennially injured players to all have their best season and a guys like Daniher,Zerrett,Fanta,Laverde to rip apart the comp.

There is no effective game plan available with our midfield plodders. Goddard,Stanton,Zaka cant play with Jobe,Heppell,Myers.

A couple of clubs outside the 8 have strengthened with a grade talent.

Stranger things have happened but 6-8 wins is what we are looking at.

 

[hurlygurdy]

McKernan could have a break out year on the forward line. He improved out of sight in 2015 when being given a genuine chance at AFL. He kicks straight and is high energy and aggressive at the ball. And a nice mark.

I've not seen evidence that he is a nice Mark. I would have thought it was telling that almost all his goals so far have been crumbled or in space.

 

[MarkG]

A few young legs and enthusiasm in the team may inspire Jobe Watson. He is currently 20/1 to win the Brownlow. He was a non entity in 2015.

Previously Dons played injured players. Hoping they have had a long break and will come back fresh. TBC, Myers, Watson, Colyer, Zach etc.

 

[Gumby2Hurley]

Up until Ryder left, our midfield and defence was as good as North's and Richmond's imo. However our forward line is not finals quality. Agree with eth 9-12th.

Joey has had a new forward partner every year. I'm hoping HMckay slides to the 2nd round and we can snap him up.

 

[hurlygurdy]

Up until Ryder left, our midfield and defence was as good as North's and Richmond's imo. However our forward line is not finals quality. Agree with eth 9-12th.

Joey has had a new forward partner every year. I'm hoping HMckay slides to the 2nd round and we can snap him up.

I don't see it working, but they almost have to try hooker up forward with jd early in the season. If the likes of pears or Ashby can take the second kpd spot and not disgrace themselves then we can back our midfield to keep the ball up the right end of the ground. We can't afford to ignore the fact that hooker is an instant fix for a 5 year problem.
It looked bad late this season because our midfield was non existent. When at full strength, I think we have to at least give another player a shot at it.
Damn Carlisle

 

[footyfanatic09]

We're around the 9-12 area IMO. With an easier draw this season we may make the top 8 but I doubt it. Need to fix the forward line balance.

I'm not sure the balance is what needs fixing , it's more the mid delivery and fwd defensive hunger .
Having Tbc or Mckernan up there will help but getting Jobe , Myers , hocking ect back will make a real difference to the way the ball goes in the 50 .
I'd be very unhappy to miss the 8

 

[MightyDon]

I think our forward line looks worse when our engine room in the centre is all out injured, Watson, Hocking, Myers. These guys out this season (combined with ruck issues) has meant our outside run has had to do the the heavy lifting and the outside run and polish has often been lacking, forward entries haven't been great (often slow, predictable, bombed in high or on a fast break there's no one in the forward line to kick it too) and the ball has been coming back out far to easy, forward presser doesn't just come from the 6 guys in forward line, its a strong mid field pushing up and intercepting the rushed kicks out and getting repeat entries.

We lacked being able to throw Goddard or Watson or anyone else dangerous up there as they were either out injured or we just didn't have the depth in the mid field for them to play anywhere else. It should never be underestimated how important Hocking is in the mid field, even having him back for a couple games at the end of the season allowed others to get loose and some run from the young fellas.

 

[MarkG]

[QUOTE="MightyDon, post: 41602241, member: 121367"
We lacked being able to throw Goddard or Watson or anyone else dangerous up there as they were either out injured or we just didn't have the depth in the mid field for them to play anywhere else. It should never be underestimated how important Hocking is in the mid field, even having him back for a couple games at the end of the season allowed others to get loose and some run from the young fellas.[/QUOTE]
Re the top 8, the top few sides (Hawks, Fremantle, North, Swans) have an old playing list. Surely they can't go on forever. One or more of them must fall at some stage like the Cats this season.

We need to nurse our injured players more. One thing that Bart Cummings was famous for was training no 2 horses the same. He won Melbourne Cups with horses that had injuries right throughout their careers.

Hawks are masters at nursing guys like Rioli, Mitchell, Hodge etc.

No gut busting one in all in pre season for players that have had soundness issues, Hocking, Watson, Myers, TBC, Luey, Colyer, Zaka , Cooney etc. don't want to see Hocking do a groin in pre season.

Having so many injuries this season should give us more confidence bringing the next group of guys in given that they had the experience in 2015, eg, Fantasia, Langford etc. they won't let the side down while the other guys are resting or getting over a niggle.

Hopefully Worsfold will get the job done.

 

[Amazing Bombers]

7-10 with an easier draw.

 

[TheFrenchCut]

Tullamarine.

 

[Jade]

Where are we at?

We are on the precipice of the end of this complete and utter horseshit.

And then, finally, I can go to the footy and the worst thing I have to worry about is whether or not the team is shit.