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Analysis Where to from here?

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dazbroncos said:
Congrats... after 10 years and 10 attempts..

You got one right.

Welcome back by the way. I figured this would really draw you back here

Go Catters
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Was holding my breath until finals. Unfortunately the way the list has been built, the combination of the home ground, fixture doesn't tell us the real story until September.

10 years and 10 attempts and I got one right, did I just miss 9 straight flags or something in an alternate universe? We've been right all along.
 

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So Scott needs to get back to basics to stay on as coach, teach the lads how to stick a tackle and pressure the ball carrier, move the ball quickly and if players don't want that get rid of them, Selwood to step down as captain as we can no longer guarantee a game every week, seek out offers for Blitz, Tuohy, Bews Kolo, dalhaus, Sav, Narkle, Constable, Evans, Clark, Atkins delist Hendo Rohan Higgins Jenkins.

I would rather play with new kids getting belted each week than the same same who aren't up to it in finals.
 
Well, the years of going into a season thinking that we are an actual chance to win the flag is gone.
The window is just slammed closed.
Looking to the future we are in big strife.
As much as I love Jeremy Cameron as a player.... Clearly if we had a time machine we would go back and use the draft picks on youth.
Because we went all in to win a flag.... and I think as a fan base that we would happily take just 1 more flag after 2011 and accept our demise after that.
The issue is that Scott just hasn't been the man to deliver it (but this isn't about Scott, so I will stick more to our future than the past).

The reality is that we have basically the worst group of youngsters in the comp, no first-round draft pick & a bunch of older players who are not gonna get us a flag + they'll all be gone in the next couple of years.

As I said... I think we'd cop it all just for that 1 more flag... But It never came.

Only people with blind faith think we will be ok going forward.

My advice.... Get used to losing games and not being a flag threat :(
 
Our game plan is a relatively successful one but it is a low ceiling game plan.

If executed well (and allowed by the oppo to execute well) it wins games, but it rarely gives exceptionally good performances. It has no higher gears.

Come finals you at the very least need the threat of that higher gear. And to have that you need a game plan that has a bit of spice in it, it needs to risk losing in order to possibly have that "really good" game.

Also our midfield has no A graders. Danger maybe.
 
Not a big poster on here but thought I’d put my 2 cents in after having to sit through a pretty disappointing evening last night.
Don’t think we have to overreact and retire half the team after this year considering the injuries to very important players(O’Connor, Parfitt, Stewart), who are among a handful in their prime at the moment that we simply couldn’t afford to lose. We also came against a red hot Melbourne who were primed while we looked like half the team were carrying niggling injuries, which isn’t surprising considering we played deep into October last year while they had an extra month of pre-season not making finals at all. Sometimes going deep year in year out catches up with teams, like Richmond this year.
My hope is to go in a bit of a Sydney path, they topped up veteran players in 2013-2015 time period chasing a premiership, ultimately falling short. They then kept veteran leadership rather than tossing out anyone over the age of 28 that some rebuilding clubs do and began developing young players around them. They are now are in a very good position I think going forward and never bottomed out for a long period.
I hope Jenkins, Henderson retire/delisted, Chook will leave along with maybe Narkle, Clark and Fort if he asks for a trade. Higgins might hang the boots up as well, although I felt he looked okay last night compared to the rest of our team. Pick up some young talent in the draft and start playing the kids on our list, not saying they have to start in the midfield but give them a crack on the wing or half forward, stop playing Dahlhaus who’s cooked and see what we’ve got.
Also would look to get some new blood into our coaching ranks whether it’s senior or assistants, I love Boris/Scarlett and the rest but I feel like it’s time we got in some outside influences rather than the constant status quo of the ‘boys club’. They should go elsewhere and get new ideas rather than having the one plan no matter the situation, it’d help their development as coaches and our on field performance.

In summary I don’t think it’s doom and gloom, if we tinker with some young talent around our veterans we already have on the list and make a few philosophical changes we can be alright. Personally would love to watch some young talent develop as well, we probably won’t be in flag contention for a while but watching a competitive team that I can watch talent grow in must be better than what I had to sit through last night
 
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Things I'd like to see next season:

- A sports psychologist be added into the support staff. There's something going on upstairs in several of our players that needs to be nutted out. Amazing how blokes like Guthrie, Duncan and Menegola can look like world-beaters during the H&A season, yet turn to water in the finals.
- Fresh faces in the coaches box. Blokes like Matthew Knights have gone way past their used-by dates. Probably Scott as well. Need fresh faces and voices, and new ideas.
- Have a selection and rotation policy where no-one plays more than 20 games during the season. Also have a selection rule where at least half a dozen players need to be aged 23 or under. This means we're forced to play blokes like Jarvis, Clark, Constable (if those two are still with us next year), Kreuger, De Koning, Stephens, Brownless, Jarvis, Evans and Holmes a lot more during the year.
- Feels like I say this every year and it's like flogging a dead horse, but select players based on form rather than reputation. If you have a ruckman in the VFL averaging 20 possessions and 30 hitouts a game over a few weeks, play him in the seniors if the AFL ruckmen aren't performing. Competition for spots should be something we aim for, rather than having a few blokes who just coast through games knowing regardless of form they won't be dropped.
 
Gavin Excell said:
That is now very clear.
Unfortunately I doubt the board has the stomach to make the hard call
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Who in their right mind would want to take on Geelong with CS having one more year on his contract?
No win situation.
CS will keep the spot at least 2022, as he should.
We ran out of legs and luck this year.
 
The definition of stupidity is doing the same thing and expecting a different result, we are now at that point.
 

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The scary thing is that with an even run with injury, we could very easily be back in this exact same position next year.

Can someone pull me up if I say ‘just happy to bank the points’ when we grind out a 3 goal win over North in Geelong next year.

I am going to try very hard to follow next year with a detached cynicism. Every year they suck me back in…
 
Looked so far away but as we've seen many times from this club and others a few changes can make a big difference so I'll stay as optimistic as I can and look forward to seeing what changes we can make to style and personell for next season.
Whilst I don't always agree with the changes we make I enjoy the discussion, anticipation and emotion it brings each week and year good and bad
 
winty said:
Things I'd like to see next season:

- A sports psychologist be added into the support staff. There's something going on upstairs in several of our players that needs to be nutted out. Amazing how blokes like Guthrie, Duncan and Menegola can look like world-beaters during the H&A season, yet turn to water in the finals.
- Fresh faces in the coaches box. Blokes like Matthew Knights have gone way past their used-by dates. Probably Scott as well. Need fresh faces and voices, and new ideas.
- Have a selection and rotation policy where no-one plays more than 20 games during the season. Also have a selection rule where at least half a dozen players need to be aged 23 or under. This means we're forced to play blokes like Jarvis, Clark, Constable (if those two are still with us next year), Kreuger, De Koning, Stephens, Brownless, Jarvis, Evans and Holmes a lot more during the year.
- Feels like I say this every year and it's like flogging a dead horse, but select players based on form rather than reputation. If you have a ruckman in the VFL averaging 20 possessions and 30 hitouts a game over a few weeks, play him in the seniors if the AFL ruckmen aren't performing. Competition for spots should be something we aim for, rather than having a few blokes who just coast through games knowing regardless of form they won't be dropped.
Click to expand...

Admirable suggestions - winty for CEO/President
 

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Down at K Park said:
I can’t see us doing anything except doubling down on this dumpster fire. Scott is too arrogant to admit it won’t work.
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In fairness they kinda have to.
We aren't going to be able to change the dramatically change the game style/structure over a single pre-season and we won't get our hands on any significant draft currency so best way forward for next season would be much of the same unfortunately.
Save draft currency, look to build on that over the following few seasons (maybe look at trading out some with value) and look to start giving kids some more responsibility (Holmes playing 20 games in the midfield next year, Clarke every game off half back, SDK/Freddie playing 12+ games etc etc).
But next year will be more of the same because there really isn't an alternative.
 
Mad_Hatter said:
In fairness they kinda have to.
We aren't going to be able to change the dramatically change the game style/structure over a single pre-season and we won't get our hands on any significant draft currency so best way forward for next season would be much of the same unfortunately.
Save draft currency, look to build on that over the following few seasons (maybe look at trading out some with value) and look to start giving kids some more responsibility (Holmes playing 20 games in the midfield next year, Clarke every game off half back, SDK/Freddie playing 12+ games etc etc).
But next year will be more of the same because there really isn't an alternative.
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Of course they can have a drastic change in the game plan.
It may not be successful but it can happen.
It would happen if a new coach came.
 
My guess is that Chris Scott will be retained for one more year. Geelong will drop and may just scrape through to finish in the top eight, if not miss out altogether. From there, the club and Chris will part ways. We'll miss finals for consecutive years in 23-24.

As for the list, I think drastic calls will have to be made over the next couple of off-seasons.

Selwood is cooked. He's been an absolute warrior, but the curtain has almost come down on his career. He needs to relinquish the captaincy and focus on his own game. Next year will be his last season and he's not guaranteed to get a game each week.

Danger isn't far behind Selwood. His best footy is well and truly behind him. That elusive premiership he craves will not materialise. He has a couple of seasons left at best. Neither he, nor Selwood had a hope of competing with the best midfield duo in the comp in Petracca and Oliver.

The rest if the midfield brigade are solid, without being stars. As much as I love some of the performances that C.Guthrie and Duncan have strung together over the past decade, they're not stars who will turn a game on its head. They're just solid, consistent contributors, who will struggle with Danger and Selwood's demise.

We've struggled in the ruck for a decade and I cannot see that changing any time soon. Stanley tries, but he's just not up to competing against the best in the business. He's had his pants absolutely pulled down against Gawn - twice in a month. Alas, he's concerningly still our best option.

Up forward, Tom Hawkins continues to defy the odds. We know that he and Cameron are a formidable duo if they're getting sufficient feed from the midfield. However, I forsee a lot of frustration for Tom as his final couple of seasons will be reminiscent of Richo's at the Tigers.

We've got all kids of problems in defence. Tom Stewart is obviously a star. O'Connor is solid. Henry has put in some very solid performances, as well. But our keys are where the problem is. Blitz has the athleticism but not the strength to go with the gorillas. Hendo has fought back admirably, but now looks slow and cooked again, and Kolo is a crab.

Most concerning of all, though, is the state of our youth. We have a poor draft hand with our ability to now replenish the list looking hamstrung for some time. As much as I love what Jezza's brought to the club, ultimately, his inclusion was to be the missing piece for a flag, an elusive flag at that. It was a risk we took, and it failed. But hey, that's footy. Flags are bloody hard to win...
 
One thing that is very clear to me is that our midfield needs its biggest overhaul in years, a complete facelift needed. Get rid of Rohan and have Danger play as a permanent forward, Selwood has to find a new role otherwise rip up that 1-year extension, he can’t play in midfield anymore, or at least have a very reduced % of time in there next year.

Play Narkle, Parfitt, Constable in midfield, play Clark on a wing with Smith on the other, rotating with Menegola. Guthrie, Duncan & Selwood can roll through the middle when needed.
 
Poetic Justice said:
Of course they can have a drastic change in the game plan.
It may not be successful but it can happen.
It would happen if a new coach came.
Click to expand...

Unless they go into rebuild mode next year (and with our draft currency and rookie situation would be dumb) they cannot dramatically change the game style over a pre-season for a core group of veteran players who have played a specific way for 5-8 years.
It's not as simple as many believe it is, it's a completely different way of thinking and way of preparing. Would have to change every single system we have (centre bounce setups, between the arc setups, forward stoppage setups, defensive 50 setups, fat side setups, transitional setups, intercept setups, momentum changing setups etc etc etc).
Simply cannot do that over a single pre-season. It took Bomber over 5 years to build a style with a young group of players, and even then he wasn't CHANGING the style than creating one (so a bit easier since you aren't changing inherent style).

Hence why so many of us see very little hope for the short/medium term. Not much will change, not much can change.
 
The Unforgiven said:
Up forward, Tom Hawkins continues to defy the odds. We know that he and Cameron are a formidable duo if they're getting sufficient feed from the midfield. However, I forsee a lot of frustration for Tom as his final couple of seasons will be reminiscent of Richo's at the Tigers
Click to expand...

Not sure I agree with this - I reckon Tom will still be one of the most dominant forwards of the game for the next 2 years.

And he won't finish on a wing.
 
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