Analysis Where to from here?

[PhatBoy]

U do realise that the Dees had their centre bounce midfield set up all wrong for about 15 minutes there.
Pretty easy centre clearances were there for the taking.
After that 15 minutes we didnt have another worth a pinch of sh__t.

As for the Ferrari... Where is this Ferrari u talk of??

At this moment, if every key forward in the league was fit, I would rank them:

1. hawkins
2. Franklin (debatable but when he was fit this year he was still exceptional)
3. McKay
4. Cameron
5. Tom Lynch
6. Josh Kennedy

I’d say having 2 players the quality of Hawkins and Cameron in one forward line when most teams don’t have ONE in the ballpark is close to a Ferrari

 

[PhatBoy]

Herein lies our big problem. When you are relying on Cam Guthrie to be carrying your midfield, you are in very big trouble.
No offense, terrific footballer but just like Marc Murphy, not really the type of footballer you want to be a leader of men.

Opposing teams would quite like to play against Cam. It is why he is allowed to waltz around at will and gather 30 disposals on a weekly basis.

Fair point. Further to what I said earlier about our attitude and not being willing to come out and bash and crash and hammer the other team physically, I find it even more strange that we don’t have that ferocious attitude given that all our main mids are big, hard bodies. Guthrie is hardly going to scare anyone shitless but he’s certainly not small, Menegola is quite strong, danger and Selwood are both hard bodies, even Duncan while not exactly the hulk, has a degree of strength about him - yet Parfitt of all of them is the one that seems to come out hunting the opposition.

 

[Herne Hill Hammer]

To be fair, we started competing in 2004.

Yes we did, but we'll never have a haul like that again in 2 drafts.

 

[Partridge]

1999 - got Mooney for Colbert, Joel Corey, Paul Chapman (with the pick we got for Mansfield), Cameron Ling, Corey Enright

2000 - got Josh Hunt for Carl Steinfort, Max Rooke (rookie), gave up pick 11 for Justin Murphy.

2001 - got Jimmy Bartel, James Kelly, Stevie J, Gary Ablett.

They were added to the likes of Scarlett, Harley, Milburn who were still a couple of years off hitting their prime. We'll never have a draft haul again like we did with 1999 and 2001.

We'd never get Chapman. For one thing the argument would be "you won't get a pick coming in as good as Mansfield, and oh yes, there's no guarantee that they'll make it". Which is EXACTLY the mindset displayed in here very very often.

 

[Biggy_Boy]

We'd never get Chapman. For one thing the argument would be "you won't get a pick coming in as good as Mansfield, and oh yes, there's no guarantee that they'll make it". Which is EXACTLY the mindset displayed in here very very often.

Pick 31 is a garbage pick. You won't get any quality there. If you're not getting picks in the top 5 it's not worth going to the draft.

 

[stevothedevo]

Instead of being 6 goals down and thinking we can still win. We should be six goals up and thinking we can still lose.

I went into Fridays prelim thinking that if we played well enough, we could win. Stupid thinking in hindsight but I'm certain I'm not alone. It's that line of thinking that may have drifted into the coaches box and players. So what I (and perhaps others) should've been thinking was, if we played well enough, there's a chance we'll still lose and lose badly. Is that loser speak or just facing reality?

Maybe a 2 fold problem. The 1st is our 3 premierships and recent outstanding H&A record leading us into a false sense. The other, Chris Scott

Chris Scott

Age

49

Ht

182cm

Wt

89kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

16.6

4star

K

11.2

4star

HB

5.4

4star

M

5.1

5star

T

1.6

4star

G

0.4

3star

No current season stats available

D

13.2

4star

K

10.2

4star

HB

3.0

3star

M

2.2

3star

T

2.8

5star

G

0.4

3star

hinted at a few years ago with Richmond. He said there not unbeatable unlike the teams from a decade or 2 ago. Hawthorn, Collingwood, Geelong, Brisbane and even StKilda had a sense of invincibility. You had to be at the top of your game to beat them and even that was no guarantee. These days there are no obvious stand outs. No ones 3 games clear on top so there doesn't seem to be a benchmark to pit against. There's no “kill the shark” moment or “if it bleeds we can kill it”.

But why isn't that affecting the others like it does Geelong? Are the 10 or so collective premierships in the coaches box doing enough to pass down a sense of dread while also instilling confidence?

It wasn't until 10mins into the 3rd quarter of the 2007 GF where I'd truly believed we had a chance at winning. 70pts up at that stage. Crazy to think that now, but that's the mindset most had back then. I reckon there were a few Demons on Friday night thinking the same thing. And that could be the difference.

I don't have any verifiable answers. Just thoughts and feelings. And I have enjoyed reading this particular thread. Carn the cats.

 

[Overhang]

Good point.
Does anyone else think that the arrival of Cameron maybe could have led to a totally different attitude to attack, ie. at the moment it seems ‘control the ball, move it methodically, and because we have two elite key forwards, through weight of numbers we will create chances for them because they are good.’
with those two guys there I think in hindsight we could have said ‘we’ve got these two elite forwards, let’s move it at breakneck speed and even if the delivery is not great they are both good enough to make use of that supply and kick big scores.’

I probably haven’t worded that well, I know what I’m trying to say but probably haven’t written it well

We actually tried it round 1 against Adelaide, it was one of our most exciting games for the year, we tried to exploit the new man on the mark rule to move the ball quicker with overlap run and using the angles. The result was all though it was attractive footy we lost the the wooden spooner and Scott was confess a few weeks later that they tweaked the gameplan after the game.

As iamevilejez pointed out that our weaknesses for fast ball movement outweigh the benefit of getting the ball in quickly to Cameron and Hawkins. The issue out of the top 8 sides is we have the least threatening small forwards and the most exploitable defense when the ball goes to ground in our B50. When you have the most 30+ year olds running around it doesn't make sense to have a game plan that relies on fast ball movement. The issue is that while it could be argued we are getting the most out of our list with our controlled ball movement it is proving time and time again to fall short at the pointy end of the season and I see no reason in 2022 we will be a better side than this year other than less injuries.

 

[Partridge]

Pick 31 is a garbage pick. You won't get any quality there. If you're not getting picks in the top 5 it's not worth going to the draft.

Very true. It's not like premiership teams are filled with guys taken after pick 31, I mean a quick look at only the last 5 years throws up the names of these potatoes (not even including rookie picks which would make it much bigger):

- Kamdyn McIntosh (31)
- Toby Nankervis (35)
- David Astbury (35)
- Tom Liberatore (41)
- Easton Wood (43)
- Caleb Daniel (46)
- Lachie Hunter (49)
- Jack Graham (53)
- Nathan Broad (67)
- Jeremy McGovern (74)

Reckon there's a handy player or two in there. Picks 35, 43, 67, and 74 gives you Astbury, Wood, Broad, and McGovern. I'd take that.

 

[poeyonline]

Did you experience the 07-11 era. Did you experience the decades before that? If you did and you feel like that then good luck to you.... and id ask you to never go near a competitive environment or comp as you will be stomped but you probably have a healthy way of looking at sport and life. You are far too level headed and sensible for a high intensity sport enviorment... that you can find a serenity for being a also ran , good luck for you.

For me Id say I'm different now than I was when I was younger. Then it was all about winning...and winning the big one. I still do care but its tempered now with a how we do it. I dont care about winning near as much week to week..when winning is all we chase and not how we win. It's a very different game these days.

Do you sit there and watch the game?... or just tune in for the result, and tick off the win and continue on in your cloud of enjoyment?

Im not being negative, I'm a bit jealous , I have never been able to do that , never been able to reduce the game to a mcdonalds type of full stomach, and not care about the quality of the meal. Not care about the nutrition. No care about the heartburn. Before our premierships I thought I could not care that much about anything other than winning, but now I find myself hardly willing to endure our games , and probably happy to just check the result at the end..and really not be that fussed about losing, as I feel like , a lot of the time, we have mostly already lost.

 

[poeyonline]

Lol, yes I'm 40 and have been a cats fan my whole life. I did say it wouldn't be a popular opinion. Ive watched almost every game for 30 years and enjoy wins where we play at our best much more than boring wins. Finals wins are more enjoyable, and of course gf wins are the most enjoyable, but I'm not going to beat up on the team and say the last decade was a waste like some. I just don't see it that way.

 

[And_ROOS]

U do realise that the Dees had their centre bounce midfield set up all wrong for about 15 minutes there.
Pretty easy centre clearances were there for the taking.
After that 15 minutes we didnt have another worth a pinch of sh__t.

As for the Ferrari... Where is this Ferrari u talk of??

We have the last two coleman medalists, we have enough quality mids and defenders, but this gamestyle wouldn't have been successful with any of the Premiers of the last 20 years besides the Hawks 3 peat.

 

[Gee Class Loco]

We have the last two coleman medalists, we have enough quality mids and defenders, but this gamestyle wouldn't have been successful with any of the Premiers of the last 20 years besides the Hawks 3 peat.

Quality mids are not A grade mids... Which we have ZERO.
Quality defenders. We have one of the BEST. But unfortunately Stewart was not playing.
Coleman medalists mean nothing. I went through the Great Gary Ablett era... Coleman Medalist mean very little to me.
As i've stated on more than one occasion.
This team is not a Ferrari. U needs more 1 or 2 A graders.
Some people who think that need to take off their patch. Yes and that includes my daughters and my wife.
Our boys are good but not great. Our team is very good but not great.
Cheers & Go Cats!

 

[Cataholic]

I'd be sounding Hodge out and trying to entice him into an assistant coaching role, though he's more than likely content with his tv career. A lot less stress for starters.

 

[Gee Class Loco]

At this moment, if every key forward in the league was fit, I would rank them:

1. hawkins
2. Franklin (debatable but when he was fit this year he was still exceptional)
3. McKay
4. Cameron
5. Tom Lynch
6. Josh Kennedy

I’d say having 2 players the quality of Hawkins and Cameron in one forward line when most teams don’t have ONE in the ballpark is close to a Ferrari

Ferrari's are famous for their engines.... as that is what makes them a Ferrari
How's our engine compare ?? Not one Superstar. Not one Star. Not one A grader.
That is why the Dees and Dogs are where they are.
The Great Dynasty teams have all had that engine room that made them Dynasty's.
I still remember when we had G.Ablett Snr, Barry Stoneham & Billy Brownless kicking bags.
Yep, and we won plenty of games except the last one.
Enough of the Ferrari comparison... It's just embarrassing for ENZO. lol

 

[Cataholic]

Ferrari's are famous for their engines.... as that is what makes them a Ferrari
How's our engine compare ?? Not one Superstar. Not one Star. Not one A grader.
That is why the Dees and Dogs are where they are.
The Great Dynasty teams have all had that engine room that made them Dynasty's.
I still remember when we had G.Ablett Snr, Barry Stoneham & Billy Brownless kicking bags.
Yep, and we won plenty of games except the last one.
Enough of the Ferrari comparison... It's just embarrassing for ENZO. lol

Lol.......completely unrelated discussion, but pre-game I likened them to the latest and shiniest GT, and us as a banged up, misfiring Torana.

Then we threw the clutch before the first corner.......

 

[iameviljez]

Pick 31 is a garbage pick. You won't get any quality there. If you're not getting picks in the top 5 it's not worth going to the draft.

2017 p31 is Bayley Fritsch, who has kicked 14 goals in his last four games and over 50 for the season.

 

[iameviljez]

We have the last two coleman medalists, we have enough quality mids and defenders, but this gamestyle wouldn't have been successful with any of the Premiers of the last 20 years besides the Hawks 3 peat.

Tall forwards great, but our defence is stocked with bit part players, our small forwards are bottom-four and our ruck division is league-worst.

 

[Biggy_Boy]

2017 p31 is Bayley Fritsch, who has kicked 14 goals in his last four games and over 50 for the season.

Yeah, but if we get a 30+ year old for pick 30 we know what they have done in the past, so it's good value even if they're broken down before they get to us and don't even last a season.

 

[Down at K Park]

Ferrari's are famous for their engines.... as that is what makes them a Ferrari
How's our engine compare ?? Not one Superstar. Not one Star. Not one A grader.
That is why the Dees and Dogs are where they are.
The Great Dynasty teams have all had that engine room that made them Dynasty's.
I still remember when we had G.Ablett Snr, Barry Stoneham & Billy Brownless kicking bags.
Yep, and we won plenty of games except the last one.
Enough of the Ferrari comparison... It's just embarrassing for ENZO. lol

Our midfield has a bunch of all australians. Sel and Danger multiple all australians. Maybe they aren't at that level now though. But to say we have no A graders is going too far. Guth was AA last year for example.

 

[catman2006]

Our midfield has a bunch of all australians. Sel and Danger multiple all australians. Maybe they aren't at that level now though. But to say we have no A graders is going too far. Guth was AA last year for example.

Our midfield lack pace, danger has lost a yard, Duncan Menegola and selsy aren't quick, Guth is average, Parfitt can on a burst be quick, but what all have in common is being very good at contested ball, really need to elevate Holmes to that mid group just for his breakaway speed.

 

[iameviljez]

Yeah, but if we get a 30+ year old for pick 30 we know what they have done in the past, so it's good value even if they're broken down before they get to us and don't even last a season.

Ohhh gotcha. Sorry I didn’t read the </s>

You and I don’t agree on that much on the club, but I think we are in furious agreement that giving up picks in the 30s for Steven, Higgins and Jenkins was awful business.

 

[iameviljez]

Our midfield has a bunch of all australians. Sel and Danger multiple all australians. Maybe they aren't at that level now though. But to say we have no A graders is going too far. Guth was AA last year for example.

Guthrie is a top-40 AA squad player but not an A-grade mid in the same way that Bont, Oliver and Petracca are.

 

[Gee Class Loco]

Our midfield has a bunch of all australians. Sel and Danger multiple all australians. Maybe they aren't at that level now though. But to say we have no A graders is going too far. Guth was AA last year for example.

Was or in fact Were are the words we need to understand.
They aren't even in that conversation anymore. Their time has passed when they are considered AA quality.
But i agree with you on Cam, he just was shadow of his 2020 year though. Through injury or whatever....
Cheers

 

[Stab Pass]

This is a few years old but I doubt the numbers are too different today. Basically your number 1 pick is pretty much guaranteed to get to 100 games and close to two out of three will get to 200. Your pick 40 or so means one chance in three of getting to 100 games and one in seven of getting to 200. Yep there are bargains to be had between pick 30 and 50 but half of those picks wont play more than 40 games.

 

[iameviljez]

This is a few years old but I doubt the numbers are too different today. Basically your number 1 pick is pretty much guaranteed to get to 100 games and close to two out of three will get to 200. Your pick 40 or so means one chance in three of getting to 100 games and one in seven of getting to 200. Yep there are bargains to be had between pick 30 and 50 but half of those picks wont play more than 40 games.

View attachment 1235265

The data is slightly flawed for the 200 game figure in particular as it will count players who haven’t been in the system long enough to play 200 games as well.