Which game would have the biggest impact or butterfly effect on AFL history if the result was changed?

[coldlunch]

what happened: 2021 Grand Final in Perth. Melbourne defeat the Bulldogs and Perth's Mayor Basil Zempilas absolutely bottles the medal ceremony by forgetting to let the winning coach speak, drawing such intense criticism that his Seven and AFL commitments are not renewed for the following season, clearing space for a tilt firstly at state politics and the WA Liberal leadership, before leading the coalition back to power at the 2028 Federal Election with a mandate to sever ties from the Commonwealth and replace the head of state with Queen Gina.

what could have been: Dogs win and Luke Beveridge quietly reminds Basil pre-ceremony to "take a seat, dickhead", avoiding controversy and securing Zempilas' 20-year extension with the Seven Network.

 

[Lingsface]

Sheed missing the goal and Collingwood winning would of been interesting, Buckley would still be coach and it would be interesting to see what path that took.

 

[Mr Meow]

Sheed missing the goal and Collingwood winning would of been interesting, Buckley would still be coach and it would be interesting to see what path that took.

I know this is cheating, but imagine swapping the result of every Collingwood final that was decided by a goal or less in the AFL era. They've come out on the losing end of those in big finals so often, before completely swinging it around in 2023.

 

[iameviljez]

Footscray winning the 1924 VFA Grand Final.

Had they lost it would have been Williamstown taking on Essendon.

Would the Seagulls be in the AFL today? What colours would West Coast have?

Would Footscray still be let in ahead of North Melbourne?

Not only that, but in the ensuing match vs Essendon, it turns out that Essendon took bribes to "play dead".

 

[iameviljez]

Sheed missing the goal and Collingwood winning would of been interesting, Buckley would still be coach and it would be interesting to see what path that took.

Simpson would have lost his job a year or two earlier as well.

 

[emuboy]

With scores level, Collingwood score the winning behind in the dying seconds of the 1966 Grand Final to defeat St Kilda by 1 point.

Would St Kilda still be in the AFL today, with a record of zero premierships in 129 years?

 

[Rozee2Butters]

What if Fraser Gehrig didn't kick his 100th goal of the season in the 2004 PF? Saints had all the momentum up until that point and then the fans stormed the oval to celebrate. Allowed Port to compose themselves and eventually go onto win the game and the flag.

More recently and one I'm interested to see unfold, what if Sicily didn't hit the post against Port in the 2024 SF? Would have been two straight sets exits in a row for Port. Would Koch have still gone ahead with the succession plan, or would Ken have moved on by now?

 

[terrybull]

Not only that, but in the ensuing match vs Essendon, it turns out that Essendon took bribes to "play dead".

Yes

And the VFL probably wanted Footscray and no interest in Williamstown, I suppose the VFA vs VFL game would not had happened.

 

[Mr Meow]

What if Fraser Gehrig didn't kick his 100th goal of the season in the 2004 PF? Saints had all the momentum up until that point and then the fans stormed the oval to celebrate. Allowed Port to compose themselves and eventually go onto win the game and the flag.

More recently and one I'm interested to see unfold, what if Sicily didn't hit the post against Port in the 2024 SF? Would have been two straight sets exits in a row for Port. Would Koch have still gone ahead with the succession plan, or would Ken have moved on by now?

There is an alternative timeline where Port lose that one, Williams gets sacked, Grant Thomas leads a St Kilda dynasty 2004-2006, Port poach young Hinkley prior to 2007 - he starts their dynasty '07-'10 (including a 119 point drubbing of the Williams-lead Cats in '07) before Scott takes over for a Port run that reflects Geelong's '11-'25. Geelong are still hanging onto Williams, despite coaching for decades without a flag. Port are the "power"house team of the 21st century.

 

[Handsuper47]

Probably not the biggest impact, but let's say 1998. Richmond managed to finish 8th instead of 9th. They would have had to play North Melbourne, Melbourne and Adelaide.. all of whom they beat that same year (even beating Adelaide in Adelaide). Could they have gone the distance?

 

[Mr Meow]

Probably not the biggest impact, but let's say 1998. Richmond managed to finish 8th instead of 9th. They would have had to play North Melbourne, Melbourne and Adelaide.. all of whom they beat that same year (even beating Adelaide in Adelaide). Could they have gone the distance?

Yes. Yes they could've.

 

[Lavender Bushranger]

Some people are just posting 'what if' type of shit. But I think the intention of the OP is to discuss the ones that would likely would have had a significant ripple effect and altered the history books far beyond just the result of the individual game.

To be fair to this thread though, there are some great call outs amongst the rest of the dipshittery.


I'd like to nominate the 2005 Prelim between St Kilda and Sydney.

What would footy look like in 2025 had Paul Roos never coached a flag? The ultra defence that he pretty much pioneered would never have become a thing. It would have gone down in history as a failed experiment. That type of footy remains entrenched in the modern game.
If Sydney didn't win that night, it's probable that Paul Roos just drifts off into the sunset after a few years as yet another failed coach. There'd probably be no Ross Lyon either. Roos would never have gone to Melbourne, and not been the catalyst for change that led to their flag (for those that believe he was).

The reason I call out the prelim instead of the GF, is because on the flipside of the coin would have been the possibility that Grant Thomas becomes a premiership coach.

The soccer style manager may have become the new way. The coach/CEO approach may have become the trend. If Thomas became a premiership coach, that would have potentially changed the entire landscape around football clubs in terms of their structures and how they operate.

 

[Simche]

1970 Grand Final by far:

Carlton lead a rousing second half comeback utilising a new style of aggressively handballing, playing on from marks and quickly running in waves but sadly fall agonisingly short after a few steadying soft free kicks to Peter Mckenna let the Pies kick away.

Collingwood win their first flag since 1958 and go on to dominate the 70s.

Carlton dismayed at their sides capitulation to their rivals Richmond and Collingwood in consecutive years sack Ron Barassi having determined that he simply cannot get them to another flag without both playing and coaching. With it only being 5 years since his acrimonious departure from Melbourne, Ron struggles to get another job in coaching and joins the media.

Carlton sink back into the mediocrity that led to a 21 year premiership drought prior to Ron's arrival.

The hard running handball game is declared a fad with sides through the 70s and even into the 80s employing a positionally static long kicking and high marking game style.

 

[Freomaniac]

Rnd 9 1990 Jason Dunstall goes down with facial injury. Doesn't return till late in the season. I project that had piggy played the entire season we would 4peated.

Also keep in mind.... He was stuck on 1256 goals.

If it was a betting money on it, he plays every Hawks game in 1990, he would end up breaking that Gordon Coventry goals record of 1299 goals before plugger did

 

[sabso]

If Peter Hudson had kicked that 151st goal in 1971, and not done his knee in his first game the following year, he could have played for Hawthorn straight through to 1977 or even past it, and likely smashed coventrys record. Hawthorn prob would have won several more flags in the 70s as well.

 

[PerthBoy86]

If GWS had won the 16 and 23 prelims - as they were primed to do - they could have well had 2 premierships. Wouldve gone in faves against both the Swans and Lions imo. Their fanbase may have jumped from 10,000 to a whopping 15,000 or so. Nah but seriously it wouldve boosted them quite a bit.

 

[PerthBoy86]

We've won 2 gfs by a combined total of 6 points - one goal. 6 points separating us from a mere 2 premierships - same as the Crows - and 4.

 

[Running Dog]

If the Dogs had beaten Adelaide in the 1997 preliminary final we would have beaten St Kilda in the grand final and never lost another game for the next ten years. Which would have been boring for everyone, so we would have looked for other lucrative opportunities, finally settling on becoming an entertainment act, like the Harlem Globetrotters. That would have been a springboard for the formation of the Australian Lingerie Football League.

 

[Lavender Bushranger]

We've won 2 gfs by a combined total of 6 points - one goal. 6 points separating us from a mere 2 premierships - same as the Crows - and 4.

It's crazy isn't it.

I find it to be one of life's strange peculiarities that sporting results (particularly in Australian sport for some reason) can be so close and often be decided by things out of the control of either team - yet the difference between glory and failure are so vast.

American sport generally celebrates the achievement of the 'loser' I find. Don't get me wrong, the winner gets the glory and the runner up is generally forgotten - but they aren't often ridiculed and perceived as utter failures like they are in footy.

Paul Roos and Worsfold are very interesting in this regard. 1 or 2 points decided whether they were champion coaches, deadset losers or legends. It's such a fine line.

I mean Longmire wins 1, and loses a few - and it's the losses that he's remembered for.

 

[iameviljez]

Could they have gone the distance?

No.

 

[PerthBoy86]

It's crazy isn't it.

I find it to be one of life's strange peculiarities that sporting results (particularly in Australian sport for some reason) can be so close and often be decided by things out of the control of either team - yet the difference between glory and failure are so vast.

American sport generally celebrates the achievement of the 'loser' I find. Don't get me wrong, the winner gets the glory and the runner up is generally forgotten - but they aren't often ridiculed and perceived as utter failures like they are in footy.

Paul Roos and Worsfold are very interesting in this regard. 1 or 2 points decided whether they were champion coaches, deadset losers or legends. It's such a fine line.

I mean Longmire wins 1, and loses a few - and it's the losses that he's remembered for.

That's true. Feel we actually out too much emphasise on premierships when deciding the success or failure of teams or players.

The St Kilda side of 09-10 was arguably stronger than the Eagles or Swans of the mid 00s, but can't really compare them. Like in reality they were a Scarlett toepoke and a Milne bounce away from having won two premierships. Could have been remembered as one of the strongest teams of the 00s, but instead they're forgotten about. Ross Lyon likewise is criticised for his dour defensive gamestyle - justifiably at times - but with some luck he'd be a 3 time premiership coach and be in the same conversation as Matthews, Clarkson, Scott, Hardwick. Gary Ablett Senior is definitely no less great because he never won a flag, he did everything humanly possibly to try to get the Cats over the line in 89.

 

[Cyclonus]

Phil Walsh isn't murdered, Danger doesn't leave, Crows end up with at least one flag.

 

[iameviljez]

American sport generally celebrates the achievement of the 'loser' I find. Don't get me wrong, the winner gets the glory and the runner up is generally forgotten - but they aren't often ridiculed and perceived as utter failures like they are in footy.

I think this is very much a hangover from the old VFL days where there were only 12 clubs in the comp, and, especially as footy got professional, five of those didn't have the resources to seriously compete (Melbourne, StKilda, Footscray, South Melbourne and Geelong, plus North barring a Barassi blip).

Hence, if you were a good player at a well-resourced club, it would be reasonable to expect that you'd win a flag at some point in your life.

Now we are in a different, and more competitive, era - our definitions of "success" and "failure" haven't really caught up.

 

[iameviljez]

Like in reality they were a Scarlett toepoke and a Milne bounce away from having won two premierships.

It wasn't just those two things, either. There was one point in the second quarter where we drew level and I had to pinch myself that we somehow weren't five goals down. We were played absolutely off the park at points in that game and StKilda just couldn't put us away.

 

[PerthBoy86]

It wasn't just those two things, either. There was one point in the second quarter where we drew level and I had to pinch myself that we somehow weren't five goals down. We were played absolutely off the park at points in that game and StKilda just couldn't put us away.

Yes it truly feels St Kilda are cursed. They were leading at 3 quarter time in 1971, 1997, 2009 and I believe we either leading or level in 2010. Got as close to winning as possible only to be cruelly thrashed in the replay. How they still have so many loyal supporters I don't know.