Which side fails to play in September?

[mighty_lions]

Well 11 goals.

AFL Tables - Gold Coast v Brisbane Lions - Sat, 26-Jul-2025 1:20 PM - Match Stats

Doesn’t change much though. Not many teams lose a round 21 game by 11 goals and salute later in the season. Even with ‘the most difficult draw in VFL/AFL history.’

Like I said, on demonstrated form they are a long way behind Adelaide and Geelong.

So, not 14 goals thanks

 

[Hawkk]

We’ve beaten Geelong twice and Adelaide I have no idea how we ended up losing

It was basically a mirror to how we lost against them a few weeks ago (did you watch that too?)

There have been 20 instances of premiers losing by more than what we have including Richmond in 2017

Not so late into the final series though - but you are correct.

This was their run into the finals series



The other point I made about teams with sub 120% is that they usually don’t have a dominate (140% plus team around them). Richmond had Adelaide at 136%, then a cluster of teams around 120-130%.

This year there could be three teams with 140% — Geelong, Adelaide and the Dogs. So you have these runaway club house leaders.

Do you want to compare the pair?

 

[Hawkk]

So, not 14 goals thanks

So, also probably not the most difficult draw of all time either, too…

 

[SA HAWK]

No doubting that. My argument is that on demonstrated form I have doubts they will.

It’s also why I’m not sold on our chances this year either — percentage, top 4 for attack and defence is a better indicator than wins and losses imo.

I think they have too many injuries and losing Joe was big.

They won from 5th last year not like they were ever dominant.

 

[mighty_lions]

So, also probably not the most difficult draw of all time either, too…

I agree 2013 hawks draw not the most difficult, Brisbane by far hardest, bit of a soft finish to the year with 2 of the biggest frauds to finish the year with though

 

[Hawkk]

I think they have too many injuries and losing Joe was big.

They won from 5th last year not like they were ever dominant.

This was the ladder last year



That’s a very even ladder with no standout performer with percentage. Which is very similar to all other times a sub 120% team has jagged a flag. That said, Brisbane did finish with a 121.9% percentage which was middle of the road for that finals series.

 

[Hawkk]

I agree 2013 hawks draw not the most difficult, Brisbane by far hardest, bit of a soft finish to the year with 2 of the biggest frauds to finish the year with though

We didn’t get Norff in Hobart, that’s for sure. Frauds or no frauds, that draw really saved your bacon and prevented an embarrassing late season fade away — had you lost that game, it’s highly possible that a loss next Sunday would see you finish ninth (not ideal given your record over the last decade against Hawthorn — some Queenslanders maybe unaware of that though)

Who knows, if this was 1999 Brisbane would have an ideal profile for a flag. But this season is not that sort of year. As for 2025, my money is on the Crows and Cats with the Dogs primed to make the run from outside the top 4.

 

[mighty_lions]

We didn’t get Norff in Hobart, that’s for sure. Frauds or no frauds, that draw really saved your bacon and prevented an embarrassing late season fade away — had you lost that game, it’s highly possible that a loss next Sunday would see you finish ninth.

Who knows, if this was 1999 Brisbane would have an ideal profile for a flag.

You have some strange takes, the hawthorn Adelaide game was nothing like the Brisbane Adelaide game, they kicked 5 straight last qtr from dubious decisions and we kicked 0.8 2 out on the full and 2 not making the distance in the last qtr that we dominated, nothing like your game

And you have some weird fixation on the draw To north Melbourne

 

[Hawkk]

You have some strange takes, the hawthorn Adelaide game was nothing like the Brisbane Adelaide game, they kicked 5 straight last qtr from dubious decisions and we kicked 0.8 2 out on the full and 2 not making the distance in the last qtr that we dominated, nothing like your game

Well that’s subjective.

And you have some weird fixation on the draw To north Melbourne

Because it mitigates the awful percentage (well the percentage leading up to the Fremantle game) which was the reason my quote was bumped. As an aside, Brisbane beating Fremantle — who also have a less than ideal profile — was fabulous for our finals chances so thank you.

It’s also great to see the Lions competitive and Queenslanders turning their backs on the Maroons and Reds and embracing the AFL. Thanks in no small part from a major Hawthorn connection — not just Fagan, Leigh Matthews and Luke Hodge but also Peter Knights, Andy Gowers and even Peter Schwab. If and when the Hawks drop out of the finals, of course I’ll barrack the Lions, they are basically a Hawthorn mini-me (especially against the Cats).

 

[Freomaniac]

Unreal teams need 15 wins to make finals, this year, that's a first I think. I thought 14 would be the requirement. And unreal 16 wins won't even get you a top 4 spot, last year it gave a team 2nd spot.

I can see the dockers get 9th with 15 wins and 8 defeats.

If that happens this season and that is possible, dockers are unlucky.

I don't think that record will be broken

 

[Hobbes]

Yes it is. I’m just fascinated to understand why this is the most difficult draw in history? Is it harder than Hawthorn’s 2013 which as I said featured back to back games against all seven finalists from 2012 in the first seven rounds including away games to Perth and Adelaide in the first five? That season also featured back up games against all sides that made the finals that year (and was a 19-3, 136% year).

These are the percentages after the home and away seasons in each of the last 25 premiers

Brisbane 121%
Collingwood 129%
Geelong 144%
Melbourne 130%
Richmond 129%
Richmond 113%
West Coast 121%
Richmond 118%
W Bulldogs 119%
Hawthorn 158%
Hawthorn 141%
Hawthorn 136%
Sydney 140%
Geelong 157%
Collingwood 141%
Geelong 127%
Hawthorn 131%
Geelong 152%
West Coast 120%
Sydney 116%
Port Adelaide 132%
Brisbane 121%
Brisbane 136%
Brisbane 127%
Essendon 159%

So percentage is usually a pretty good indicator. In the years where a sub 120% team won the flag, there was not a team with a 140% percentage - so they were disproportionately even or weak years. This year, potentially three finalists could have 140% percentages (Adelaide, Geelong, W Bulldogs with Collingwood, Hawthorn and the Gold Coast around 125%)

Weirdly, and I think uniquely among finals, percentage is a negative indicator for grand finals this century. Only 40% of grand final winners had the better percentage of the two teams.

Another negative indicator for grand finals is the last head-to-head match between the teams playing finals. This is also only 40%. There were a few consecutive years in the 2000s where the last head-to-head winner always lost.

Positive indicators for grand finals include:
Better win-loss in the minor round.
Home ground/home state
Better win/loss in the last five games of the minor round
Better win/loss in the last ten games of the minor round
Longer winning streak going into the finals.

 

[jakefooty23]

but my team did win a flag last year

Atleast you have an early pick to look forward to?

 

[kreuze_missile]

Weirdly, and I think uniquely among finals, percentage is a negative indicator for grand finals this century. Only 40% of grand final winners had the better percentage of the two teams.

Another negative indicator for grand finals is the last head-to-head match between the teams playing finals. This is also only 40%. There were a few consecutive years in the 2000s where the last head-to-head winner always lost.

Positive indicators for grand finals include:
Better win-loss in the minor round.
Home ground/home state
Better win/loss in the last five games of the minor round
Better win/loss in the last ten games of the minor round
Longer winning streak going into the finals.

Do you have any statistics on how doing the power stance affects grand final results?

 

[kirky]

You have some strange takes, the hawthorn Adelaide game was nothing like the Brisbane Adelaide game, they kicked 5 straight last qtr from dubious decisions and we kicked 0.8 2 out on the full and 2 not making the distance in the last qtr that we dominated, nothing like your game

And you have some weird fixation on the draw To north Melbourne

Can you point out the dubious decisions?

Think you need to look at the highlights -

Thiltorpe goal snap running away from Payne
Ben Keays mark and goal
Dawson big pack mark and goal
Rachele goal on the run from handball from Keays
Ben Keays a goal from a stoppage

Seriously, look at it again and get back to me with any dubious decision

 

[kirky]

Do you have any statistics on how doing the power stance affects grand final results?

View attachment 2397423

Probably a bit more credibility if you have actually made a GF this century - we are a quarter of the way into it.

 

[joe444]

Odd note: the premier most years is the team with the softest run home.

I do think the Hawks miss out. Lose to Brisbane, GC goes past them on points, Doggies go past them on percentage.

 

[crows dude]

It could come down to the very last game. Gold Coast win they are in the 8 with the loser of Freo and Bulldogs missing out. If Gold Coast lose to Essendon they are the ones to miss out

 

[Tall poppy Syndrome]

Hawks are in. If Dogs go past us it means they’ve beaten Freo in the last round who are over 15 per cent behind the Hawks right now.

 

[Tall poppy Syndrome]

Hawks are in. If Dogs go past us it means they’ve beaten Freo in the last round who are over 15 per cent behind the Hawks right now.

Actually make that 14 percent. Maths ain’t my strong suit.

 

[kreuze_missile]

Probably a bit more credibility if you have actually made a GF this century - we are a quarter of the way into it.

I’m not sure the power stance grand final and subsequent camp earned your lot any credibility whatsoever

 

[mighty_lions]

Can you point out the dubious decisions?

Think you need to look at the highlights -

Thiltorpe goal snap running away from Payne
Ben Keays mark and goal
Dawson big pack mark and goal
Rachele goal on the run from handball from Keays
Ben Keays a goal from a stoppage

Seriously, look at it again and get back to me with any dubious decision

It was over 2 months ago, I will look into for you, even if I’m wrong we should of won that game we won just about every statistics, from memory contested ball, uncontested ball, inside 50s we really did dominate the game except for that patch of 10 minutes where to your teams credit kicked 5 straight

 

[crows dude]

Hawks are in. If Dogs go past us it means they’ve beaten Freo in the last round who are over 15 per cent behind the Hawks right now.

Yeh they are in. Its one Gold Coast, Freo or Bulldogs that will miss out. Gold Coast win their last game then the loser of Freo and Dogs miss. If Gold Coast lose they will miss.

 

[raskolnikov]

Would be very Gold Coasty to miss the 8 now

Won't happen. We will send a skeleton team to the Gold Coast.

 

[_Mike_]

Would be very Gold Coasty to miss the 8 now

They’ve got Port and Essendon. It would have to be a forfeiture of those 2 games to miss

 

[raskolnikov]

Any way I do the ladder predictor, unless there is a major upset like Eagles beating the Bulldogs, St. Kilda beating GWS or us beating the Gold Coast ,next week between the Bulldogs and Freo is basically an elimination final.