Why are Australia favourites?

[gillo94]

Why are Aussies favourites when NZ have better batting depth and good bowling attack?

 

[Cleavy]

home ground advantage

 

[Art Vandelay_]

Why are Aussies favourites when NZ have better batting depth and good bowling attack?

Bolded is debatable given they beat us 9 down.

Quite a large % of the 6's their sloggers bludgeon wouldn't make the distance on the G. The MCG generally doesn't swing much or for very long and both Southee and Boult are best when it swings.

Lastly they may be undefeated but haven't played on Australian soil all summer.

 

[Scholz Supremacy]

They have a significant home ground advantage at the MCG. New Zealand have performed very well in this World Cup, but do they have the experience to win the whole thing? I wouldn't think so.

 

[ROOTA#6]

Because we have been a consistently better performed cricket nation over many many many years.

 

[Bradesmaen]

Bolded is debatable given they beat us 9 down.

Yet we made the total with 10 down and after our #11 and #7 put on almost 50.

Quite a large % of the 6's their sloggers bludgeon wouldn't make the distance on the G.

Exact same thing can be said about Warner, Finch, Maxwell and Piechuckner

 

[Art Vandelay_]

Yet we made the total with 10 down and after our #11 and #7 put on almost 50.
Exact same thing can be said about Warner, Finch, Maxwell and Piechuckner

Yep and it swung. Ball won't swing anywhere near as much at the G. Wouldn't expect us to only score 150 odd again this time.

The only advantage, only advantage they have over us is the spinner.

 

[FullyBigKPro]

Whats the OP on about?

SO much lulz.

Aussies to win in a canter.

 

[Bradesmaen]

Yep and it swung. Ball won't swing anywhere near as much at the G. Wouldn't expect us to only score 150 odd again this time.

The only advantage, only advantage they have over us is the spinner.

And the fact that they have a more stable batting line up. Guptill unlike Warner or Finch knows how to play a safe innings. He's not going bull at a gate, McCullum is doing that. Unfortunately both our batsman don't even share half a brain and are likely to get out one following the other quite often. Relies a lot on Smith and our out of form Captain and barely inform Allrounder.

 

[Art Vandelay_]

This is just going to descend into yet another Finch but more importantly given it's you, Warner bashing session. I'm out. Not arguing that with you at all.

 

[ROOTA#6]

Hey Bradesmaen what colour is the sky?

 

[Barry_Badrinath]

-Home ground advantage
-Almost identical form during WC
-Superior form leading into the WC

 

[TheDrop]

Piechuckner

I don't really think that works...

 

[Bradesmaen]

I don't really think that works...

I know, but its the best I could think of after a few beers. Creativity really struggles at that point.

 

[Bradesmaen]

Hey Bradesmaen what colour is the sky?

Depends on the time of day.

 

[Bomberboyokay]

I'm no sports psychologist, but New Zealand rarely play in high stakes matches with big public expectations. Sunday will be new territory for them.

 

[ep2018]

I'm no sports psychologist, but New Zealand rarely play in high stakes matches with big public expectations. Sunday will be new territory for them.

They chased 298 in a high pressure semi final.

 

[Rabbit of Caerbannog]

Why are Aussies favourites when NZ have better batting depth and good bowling attack?

Better batting depth? On what planet? In a position-by-position comparison, I'd only take their openers. Every other position (including batting depth at the tail) is either equal or a win for us.

Bowling is very close. Starc and Boult cancel each other out, but I'd take Johnson and Hazlewood over Southee and Henry. Vettori then swings the ledger back to the middle.

So we have a slightly better team on paper, home ground advantage and a history of success at World Cups. Not hard to see why we're favourite. NZ are good value (bookies have it about 70-30 to Australia). I think 60-40 is closer to the mark.

 

[Kyptastic]

I'm no sports psychologist, but New Zealand rarely play in high stakes matches with big public expectations. Sunday will be new territory for them.

You mean like Tuesday night?

 

[Moonwatcher]

I think that Australia's win being more recent (yes our memories are short) has an effect. Also New Zealand beat South Africa who had a poor tournament being beaten by India, Pakistan and then New Zealand whilst Australia beat India who were undefeated at that point and current world champions. Australia's semi win may (incorrectly) be seen as better.

 

[The Speaker]

Because no-one pays attention to New Zealand.

They were the best team leading into the WC, and the best team leading into the final, and yet they're not favourites.

 

[Moonwatcher]

Because no-one pays attention to New Zealand.

They were the best team leading into the WC, and the best team leading into the final, and yet they're not favourites.

We just don't get to see them play. Not everyone has Fox and not everyone can spend their time watching cricket from overseas.

 

[Moonwatcher]

Boult, Southee and Vettori that's 30 overs we are going to struggle to score off if they bring their A game.

 

[Moonwatcher]

They chased 298 in a high pressure semi final.

Would have been interesting if SA could have batted the full 50 overs. I think SA could have pushed 350 ie 280 + 70 runs from their final 7 overs. That would have been a daunting chase.

 

[lewigie]

Have people forgotten that Glenn McGrath once hit Dan Vettori for 6? We'll win based on that alone, even if it happened 10 years ago.