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Why the forward line matters

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Moti

Brownlow Medallist
Mar 4, 2001
15,120
12,580
Melbourne
AFL Club
North Melbourne
Usually BF is a place for quick reactions and thoughts but wanted to do a longer version as I get more frustrated with this side. Today's focus is the forward line and why it is causing so many issues.

To help identify some of the issues, I am going to use some NFL examples. The key point I want to make is how the current structure and personnel is creating issues for the entire ground.

In the NFL, having top wide receivers that can positively take advantage of the deep ball has a greater influence on the total offence than just the odd touchdown run. By having dangerous WR the opposition must look at having their safety deeper to help protect the corner back if the WR manages to get the jump on them. Having the safety deeper means that the intermediate area of the field is less congested and the quarterback can then have more options for passing routes, and also running routes.

While the space can give more options, it has another benefit. It reduces the difficulty percentage as less congestion means throws can be less precise. The opposite is true though. Having no deep threat means that the opposition can congest the short to intermediate area making any throw more difficult and prone to greater error or turnovers.

Switching to the Roos, we have a similar problem. As we have no real deep threats, in this case the ability to take contested marks, teams can setup knowing that we are unlikely to be effective in the air and thus can be more aggressive in setting up for the counter attack. This is also helped by two other areas. As we are ineffective in the air, we have to turn to the ground to make it work. We don’t have any good small forwards and we don’t have an effective ground game inside 50. This again means that you can be more aggressive with your matchups and positioning.

So what now? Well, we get back to the QB with the accurate arm. I don’t have to tell anyone here the problem with trusting our team to thread the needle. We have the 4th quarter of the Dees game to show the effect when it does happen. We have the other 15 quarters to show what happens when it doesn’t.

Can we get a better ground game? The answer is we should get better but we don’t have A or B grade small forwards so any improvement will be minor. For this, Curtis is more a hybrid medium forward.

So that leaves the air. Larkey and Darling require some luck to win battles in the air so how do we improve? The answer is another forward who has influence in the air. Teakle did it last year, Charlie can do it as can Maley. This is the key move if we want to influence opposition sides being less aggressive and more conservative, like we are. This is a very short and simple overview but it highlights how simple positional decisions affect more than just the area they inhabit.
 
Usually BF is a place for quick reactions and thoughts but wanted to do a longer version as I get more frustrated with this side. Today's focus is the forward line and why it is causing so many issues.

To help identify some of the issues, I am going to use some NFL examples. The key point I want to make is how the current structure and personnel is creating issues for the entire ground.

In the NFL, having top wide receivers that can positively take advantage of the deep ball has a greater influence on the total offence than just the odd touchdown run. By having dangerous WR the opposition must look at having their safety deeper to help protect the corner back if the WR manages to get the jump on them. Having the safety deeper means that the intermediate area of the field is less congested and the quarterback can then have more options for passing routes, and also running routes.

While the space can give more options, it has another benefit. It reduces the difficulty percentage as less congestion means throws can be less precise. The opposite is true though. Having no deep threat means that the opposition can congest the short to intermediate area making any throw more difficult and prone to greater error or turnovers.

Switching to the Roos, we have a similar problem. As we have no real deep threats, in this case the ability to take contested marks, teams can setup knowing that we are unlikely to be effective in the air and thus can be more aggressive in setting up for the counter attack. This is also helped by two other areas. As we are ineffective in the air, we have to turn to the ground to make it work. We don’t have any good small forwards and we don’t have an effective ground game inside 50. This again means that you can be more aggressive with your matchups and positioning.

So what now? Well, we get back to the QB with the accurate arm. I don’t have to tell anyone here the problem with trusting our team to thread the needle. We have the 4th quarter of the Dees game to show the effect when it does happen. We have the other 15 quarters to show what happens when it doesn’t.

Can we get a better ground game? The answer is we should get better but we don’t have A or B grade small forwards so any improvement will be minor. For this, Curtis is more a hybrid medium forward.

So that leaves the air. Larkey and Darling require some luck to win battles in the air so how do we improve? The answer is another forward who has influence in the air. Teakle did it last year, Charlie can do it as can Maley. This is the key move if we want to influence opposition sides being less aggressive and more conservative, like we are. This is a very short and simple overview but it highlights how simple positional decisions affect more than just the area they inhabit.
Great post. I get it.

I'm a huge NFL/NCAAF fan so I get your references.

I immediately thought of Chom while reading this and then Maley, as you pointed out. Either or both could make this happen.

Let's see what they come up with during the week. With Arch coming back in maybe Chom can go forward. I'd pick Maley also and 'manage' JD.

Hopefully of some change in this area next week. You know what they say regarding the definition of insanity.
 

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I like the post, but how does it account for every I50 being to a pack that contains Larkey, Darling and either PC or Zurhar? I don’t see many leads for these tough I50 kicks, just kick it to the pack and hope we get a free kick.

It doesn't, as this could be 5 pages if I was to go through the entire forward line structure. Non-leading is a big issue and we seem to really suck at opening up space. Again, this is also an area that allows opposition teams to be more aggressive than conservative because we are so predictable. We need a mix of players and methods of play but we seem to have most players doing all styles regardless of their skillset.
 
The problem starts when you have pc and zurhaar playing as quasi medium talls.


Makes bringing in an extra third tall redundant as we then really only have one small forward to pressure

This is correct in theory, but the reality, we don't have small forwards to bring pressure anyway. Funnily enough, Chom was really good at chasing when playing forward. It has been almost absent from his entire defensive career.
 
Someone posted stats comparing K Pickett and Mahony to show that they were similar.
What that didn't show was that opposition teams played a kind of cover two on Pickett and Mahony was almost playing loose man in the forward line.
Cameron at bears gets the same kind of cover but he can still beat it.
Getting a fast, agile, highly skilled small forward should have been a priority since LT left.

2023 Draft
4 Zane Duursma North Melbourne Gippsland Power Talent League Free Agency Compensation pick (McKay)
5 Nick Watson Hawthorn


Nick Watson is your Round 3 Superhero of the Week.

BGZ in vfl
 
Maybe Clarko can give a call to Dermie and give the lads lessons on leading patterns, making space for you our forwards and decoy leads.
I think Chom will learn more from JD because Chom leads at the ball, like JD, not to the side or the pocket like Larkey.

Small crumbing forwards...what are they? Wasn't there one that some draft watcher were calling generational but you couldn't draft a 170cm player at #2 or #3.
 

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Why the forward line matters


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