Why will Port beat Brisbane?

[RoosterWedgie]

Im posting the same topic (well reversed) in the Brisbane board but I need to know why you think you'll beat Brissy this week.
Im leading 2 tipping comps and am equal third in a national comp worth $50,000 so Im mulling very seriously over this and other close games this weeks.
Please give reasons.

 

[portly]

Brisbane are travelling for the second week in a row.

Brisbane are playing a better team.

 

[mic59]

Do we share if you win?

The main reason is the match is at Adelaide. Although I'm not sure how much help that is to you, you knew that already.
But seriously, Brisbane have not won over Port at Adelaide since 1998, which was nowhere near our best year. And our most recent Adelaide game against them we absolutely killed them. Forget that it was pre-season and they did not have Voss, holding the eventual day premiers to 3 goals says something. And for more recent events, I was not at the Adelaide game and I could just about smell the Lions soiling themselves as they played Adelaide in front of a packed Footy Park.
Take the lead-in games. Port Adelaide had a pretty insipid game against Carlton at Optus but since then have overcome the Crows at AAMI Stadium and the Eagles in the West. Both of those Port should have won by more, but my feeling was that they were never in trouble.
On the other hand, Brisbane's last 3 games have been the Bulldogs and West Coast at the Gabba and Geelong on their usual end-of-season downward spiral at Skilled Stadium.
Brisbanes' playmakers? Voss around the ground, Pike and Lappin to run from defence and Akermanis up forward. I'm not counting the fixed position players such as Brown, Leppitsch and Lynch as I don't believe they will have much of an affect on the result. Port have Carr or K.Cornes to to watch Voss and Akermanis and I would say Lappin and Pike will be more concerned with their opponents than usual.
Of course these would be Francou, N.Stevens and James. S.Burgoyne could also cause Matthews to place a tagger. If Brisbane are forced to tag more than 2 players I reckon their game plan has gone out of the window.
And finally, at least Montgomery will be back, very likely P.Burgoyne and Schofield too.

So for mine :

1. Home ground advantage

2. Tougher lead-in games

3. Port have the better taggers

4. Brisbane could be forced from their usual game

5. Port have good players coming back.

6. What Portly said

 

[Eago77]

MAte a tough one, perhaps go one team for the first two and the other for the big one. Maybe go Port in the Australia wide comp as most will go Brisbane if they are from interstate i would think which means if you get it right you will catch up one, if you get it wrong your screwed anyway. However if you pick Brisbane and win it is doubtful that you will catch up anything and if they lose again you wont catch up or lose ground and still be screwed.

Guess it depends how many you are behind the leader the nation wide one and how much you are infront of the others.

 

[RoosterWedgie]

Thanks guys, yeah Ive kidn of stuck with the philosophy all year long that when in doubt go for the home team.
Unfortunately the tips I put in for the National Comp also count towards the local one Im winning, Im actually 7 in front in another one so that's pretty well sewn up
Lets just say I'll buy ya a beer at Prossie in 2 weekends time if ya help me

 

[Wishinman]

I have heard that showers are forecasted for Saturday. Judging on the form Port have showed in the rain this year, will be a 6 goal win.
Cannot remember seeing Brisbane play in the wet this year.

 

[Zombie]

Port is going to come out and look to physically smash Brisbane, watch for Hardwick starting in the square.

Port are the better side as long as they can match Brisbane physically.

 

[Portia]

I would hope that Port would just try and get on with playing good footy, getting it well to Tredrea & Cornes, and making it hard for the Lions to run it through CHF with some good blocking.

 

[Eago77]

Originally posted by RoosterWedgie
Thanks guys, yeah Ive kidn of stuck with the philosophy all year long that when in doubt go for the home team.
Unfortunately the tips I put in for the National Comp also count towards the local one Im winning, Im actually 7 in front in another one so that's pretty well sewn up
Lets just say I'll buy ya a beer at Prossie in 2 weekends time if ya help me

We'll there goes my theory. How much behind are you in the national comp? Obviously the other local one where you are 7 up isn't really an issue, you could make that one interesting by going for all draws atleast give the guy in second a chance!!

 

[Port1978]

Port will win. We've got home ground advantage, & we've got a few good players coming back.

 

[Tredders#16]

Port coming into some form. Port getting good players back. Port playing atr home. Port to win.

Tredders#16

 

[Eago77]

Here are the past meetings (record):

Played 10 times in minor round: Port Adelaide 4 - Brisbane 4 - Draw 2
1997 - Rnd 5, Port Adelaide 10.13 (73) d Brisbane 10.11 (71) - Football Park
1997 - Rnd 20, Port Adelaide 13.15 (93) drew Brisbane 13.15 (93) - Gabba
1998 - Rnd 12, Port Adelaide 18.15 (123) drew Brisbane 18.15 (123) - Gabba
1999 - Rnd 3, Port Adelaide 15.13 (103) d Brisbane 11.14 (80) - Gabba
1999 - Rnd 18, Brisbane 17.16 (118) d Port Adelaide 9.12 (66) - Football Park
2000 - Rnd 4, Port Adelaide 23.11 (149) d Brisbane 15.16 (106) - Football Park
2000 - Rnd 16, Brisbane 18.12 (120) d Port Adelaide 7.11 (53) - Gabba
2001 - Rnd 1, Port Adelaide14.15 (99) d Brisbane 14.9 (93) - Football Park
2001 - Rnd 16, Brisbane 13.16 (94) d Port Adelaide 8.12 (60) - Gabba
2002 - Rnd 7, Brisbane 19.15 (129) d Port Adelaide 11.6 (72) - Gabba

Finals - Played 1 time: Port Adelaide 0 - Brisbane 1
2001 - 2nd QF Final, Brisbane 12.16 (88) d Port Adelaide 8.8 (56) - Gabba


As you can see lots of close games, two draws in 11 meetings, plus two more under 7 points the difference.

Also note the home team usually gets up.

Footy Park: Port lead 3-1
Gabba: Brisbane lead 4-1, with the 2 draws.
Total: Brisbane lead 5-4, with 2 draws.

All this may mean a small victory to Port if history shows us anything.

 

[Lady Lawrence]

Originally posted by Wishinman
I have heard that showers are forecasted for Saturday. Judging on the form Port have showed in the rain this year, will be a 6 goal win.
Cannot remember seeing Brisbane play in the wet this year.

Round 6 v Geelong - p!$$ed down, Brisbane by 57 points

 

[Eago77]

Originally posted by Lady Lawrence


Round 6 v Geelong - p!$$ed down, Brisbane by 57 points

Doubt that it will rain on the weekend, so far this week the weather down here has been fantastic.

BTW a Rd 6 home win against (an at the time sh*thouse) Geelong hardly would be the basis for any confidence in the wet/bad conditions.

 

[dreamkillers]

Originally posted by Lady Lawrence


Round 6 v Geelong - p!$$ed down, Brisbane by 57 points

But being in Brisbane it would not have come with the cold chill that prevails at footy park...........

and it looks like the weather bureau are having a bet each way with the forecast for Saturday.....

Min 9 Max 18
A shower or two, clearing in the afternoon.

 

[mic59]

In "Inside Football" the 11 scribes favour Brisbane 10-1. But the one to tip Port is Mal Brown, who leads with 115.

 

[Eago77]

Originally posted by mic59
In "Inside Football" the 11 scribes favour Brisbane 10-1. But the one to tip Port is Mal Brown, who leads with 115.

Everyone must be trying to tip the upset to catch him

 

[Portia]

Since Round 7 for Round 22

-Wakelin
-Kingsley
-P. Burgoyne

+S. Burgoyne
+Paxman
+K. Cornes

Looks not too bad.

 

[Eago77]

Originally posted by Porthos
Since Round 7 for Round 22

-Wakelin
-Kingsley
-P. Burgoyne

+S. Burgoyne
+Paxman
+K. Cornes

Looks not too bad.

Also French for Lade (who has been fairly average this year).

I don't think name wise we are much better off, however it isn't that much difference. I think it will come down to the home ground advantage which has been significant for most teams this year and also very relevant for these two teams in all the games they have played against each other.

Also, i have been thinking about the game a bit lately and believe we have the best guy (probably in the league) at getting the ball to our onballers (in Primus), one of the best at extracting the ball from stoppages (in Francou) and two of the best marking tall forwards in the leadue (in Tredrea & Cornes). Obviously Brisbane have their great onballers & some pretty good targets up forward as well but again the home crowd will be the difference.

 

[Portia]

I think our defense is better than in Round 7, especially when you remember to include French for Lade - a more accountable unit.

 

[Eago77]

Originally posted by Porthos
I think our defense is better than in Round 7, especially when you remember to include French for Lade - a more accountable unit.

That's a big call considering we've lost (perhaps) this year AA full back as well as Kingsley (who was named in the AA Squad half way through this year).

 

[Portia]

I think Paxman replaces Wakelin admirably, with quick thinking and experience making up for slightly less pace.

Kane Cornes for Kingsley is a pretty even trade, if Cornes can keep up last weeks work. Both players can be hit and miss.

Shaun Burgoyne for Peter Burgoyne. Shaun can play in defence very well, losing Peter plucks a bit out of our midfield depth.

French is more useful in defence than Lade ever has been.

This basically gives us greater versatility in defence, especially seeing as Guerra has also shown this year that he can play pretty well as a back pocket player. Also Poulton has really stood up and done well this year too.

 

[Eago77]

Originally posted by Porthos
I think Paxman replaces Wakelin admirably, with quick thinking and experience making up for slightly less pace.

Kane Cornes for Kingsley is a pretty even trade, if Cornes can keep up last weeks work. Both players can be hit and miss.

Shaun Burgoyne for Peter Burgoyne. Shaun can play in defence very well, losing Peter plucks a bit out of our midfield depth.

French is more useful in defence than Lade ever has been.

This basically gives us greater versatility in defence, especially seeing as Guerra has also shown this year that he can play pretty well as a back pocket player. Also Poulton has really stood up and done well this year too.

Still think our round 7 defence (in terms of names assuming that players like Mead, Bishop, Poults & Guerra play at the same level) would be better. I don't know if Paxman can quiet cover Wakelin on this years form and i think Kingsley is a better Backman than Cornes who normally tags. Junior Burger adds flexibilty granted as does French, but if i had to name a starting six backmen neither would be in it.

You'd probably go with :
Bishop, Paxman, Guerra
Hardwick, Mead, Poults
for this week, compared to Rd 7:
Bishop, Wakelin, Guerra
Hardwick, Mead, Kingsley.

Basically a straight swap of Wakes & Pax (slight loss IMO)
And means poults for a first choice of Kingsley (again a loss)
But we are probably a bit more flexible with the likes of French rather than Lade and Junior rather than Senior (however, would be nice to have both this week).

 

[Portia]

Originally posted by Eago77
Still think our round 7 defence (in terms of names assuming that players like Mead, Bishop, Poults & Guerra play at the same level) would be better. I don't know if Paxman can quiet cover Wakelin on this years form.

I reckon he can, and I guess we'll see.

and i think Kingsley is a better Backman than Cornes who normally tags.

I reckon they would be in a fairly similar role actually...Kingsley's forward-playing midfield opponents tend to take him deeper into the backline than he feels comfortable.

Junior Burger adds flexibilty granted as does French, but if i had to name a starting six backmen neither would be in it.

Sure, but they'd easily be ahead of Lade and Peter Burgoyne to fill a hole.

You'd probably go with :
Bishop, Paxman, Guerra
Hardwick, Mead, Poults

I'd probably have Wanganeen for Guerra, actually.

Basically a straight swap of Wakes & Pax (slight loss IMO)
And means poults for a first choice of Kingsley (again a loss)

Poults in this year form I reckon is equal with Kingsley in this year's form as far as being a defender.

But we are probably a bit more flexible with the likes of French rather than Lade and Junior rather than Senior (however, would be nice to have both this week).

Agreed.

Against Brisbane, who have a lot of valid forward options, its this versatility that we definitely need.

 

[kimp]

Originally posted by Zombie
Port is going to come out and look to physically smash Brisbane, watch for Hardwick starting in the square.

Port are the better side as long as they can match Brisbane physically.

That would play right into Brisbane's hands. I relaly hope that is the tactic employed. No one beats us in this kind of game. We have a backup ruckman if required (through suspension or injury) and backup defenders. Bring it on Port!