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Player Watch Will Hayes

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Any kid outside the top ten who cracks it for a game or two in his first season has had a decent first year, (in my opinion). It's how they come back, prep and go next year, then you can really start to see if they are on the right trajectory.
Yep, I look forward to seeing how he goes with another pre-season under his belt. He's had a taste of playing with the big boys, which can only be a positive in his development.
 
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Any kid outside the top ten who cracks it for a game or two in his first season has had a decent first year, (in my opinion). It's how they come back, prep and go next year, then you can really start to see if they are on the right trajectory.
Will is very lightly framed, so he's probably exhausted after his first season.
He's got plenty to offer - speed, pressure, tackling, goal kicking, footy smarts.
He'll be so much better with another preseason under his belt.
 

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nodding yes GIF
 
Congrats to Will Hayes.

Interesting timing by the club. Announce good news to distract us from no news in trade week. Has happened during the year for other reasons. Very strategic by the club.
Maybe they just wanted to make sure they kept him. Would not be surprised to hear that other clubs had been sniffing around him.
 

Sometimes a highlights package doesn’t have that many highlights.

But not our Will! Can’t wait to see him again in 2026.
 

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Sometimes a highlights package doesn’t have that many highlights.

But not our Will! Can’t wait to see him again in 2026.
It’s a journey to get to the same level, but the way he plays at VFL does remind me of Zac Bailey. If he can build the same size and not lose the running power in the process he’s one that I think can do something at senior level. It’s such a shame that he tired as well because a few extra games into him would have been a big bonus.
 
Any kid outside the top ten who cracks it for a game or two in his first season has had a decent first year, (in my opinion). It's how they come back, prep and go next year, then you can really start to see if they are on the right trajectory.
I understand why its a common belief, kids picked later often need more time, but i think the stats tell a different story.

Real truth is while more of the early picks play season one the later picks who end up good also play just as early.

Using your thought that 2 games for a player outside the top ten equals a decent season is a low mark

67 players from the 2024 national draft as 18 year olds

19 played 10 or more games
9 played between 5-9 games
7 played 3-4 games

So if you played 2 games 34 of 67 of you peers played more.

Of the 19 who played 10 or more
7 came from picks 1-10
5 came from 11-20
7 games from pick 21 +

AFL doesn't wait, its brutal, if you want to be good be good early. Not many who aren't end good in the long run.

Having said that I have hopes for Will but only 2 games in your 1st season is a bit of a negative to me.
 
I understand why its a common belief, kids picked later often need more time, but i think the stats tell a different story.

Real truth is while more of the early picks play season one the later picks who end up good also play just as early.

Using your thought that 2 games for a player outside the top ten equals a decent season is a low mark

67 players from the 2024 national draft as 18 year olds

19 played 10 or more games
9 played between 5-9 games
7 played 3-4 games

So if you played 2 games 34 of 67 of you peers played more.

Of the 19 who played 10 or more
7 came from picks 1-10
5 came from 11-20
7 games from pick 21 +

AFL doesn't wait, its brutal, if you want to be good be good early. Not many who aren't end good in the long run.

Having said that I have hopes for Will but only 2 games in your 1st season is a bit of a negative to me.

Be interesting if you took out KPP/Ruckmen from that list what it changes too, smalls have much less time to impact
 
Be interesting if you took out KPP/Ruckmen from that list what it changes too, smalls have much less time to impact
Have done that in the past. Rucks tend to be outliers but KPP still tend to play early if they are going to be good
 
I understand why its a common belief, kids picked later often need more time, but i think the stats tell a different story.

Real truth is while more of the early picks play season one the later picks who end up good also play just as early.

Using your thought that 2 games for a player outside the top ten equals a decent season is a low mark

67 players from the 2024 national draft as 18 year olds

19 played 10 or more games
9 played between 5-9 games
7 played 3-4 games

So if you played 2 games 34 of 67 of you peers played more.

Of the 19 who played 10 or more
7 came from picks 1-10
5 came from 11-20
7 games from pick 21 +

AFL doesn't wait, its brutal, if you want to be good be good early. Not many who aren't end good in the long run.

Having said that I have hopes for Will but only 2 games in your 1st season is a bit of a negative to me.
Thinking Think GIF by Rodney Dangerfield
 
I understand why its a common belief, kids picked later often need more time, but i think the stats tell a different story.

Real truth is while more of the early picks play season one the later picks who end up good also play just as early.

Using your thought that 2 games for a player outside the top ten equals a decent season is a low mark

67 players from the 2024 national draft as 18 year olds

19 played 10 or more games
9 played between 5-9 games
7 played 3-4 games

So if you played 2 games 34 of 67 of you peers played more.

Of the 19 who played 10 or more
7 came from picks 1-10
5 came from 11-20
7 games from pick 21 +

AFL doesn't wait, its brutal, if you want to be good be good early. Not many who aren't end good in the long run.

Having said that I have hopes for Will but only 2 games in your 1st season is a bit of a negative to me.
The way I see it is that the top 10 picks are usually coming from bottom teams, so those kids are more likely to find senior spots a lot more easily.
Our club was looking for a flag and therefore the younger players were less likely to get games.
Will did pretty well in the games he played, he was definitely not disgraced and if he had gotten a string of games I have no doubt he would have come on really well.
I'm sure someone will come in with the he has to bulk up comments. 😵‍💫
 

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I understand why its a common belief, kids picked later often need more time, but i think the stats tell a different story.

Real truth is while more of the early picks play season one the later picks who end up good also play just as early.

Using your thought that 2 games for a player outside the top ten equals a decent season is a low mark

67 players from the 2024 national draft as 18 year olds

19 played 10 or more games
9 played between 5-9 games
7 played 3-4 games

So if you played 2 games 34 of 67 of you peers played more.

Of the 19 who played 10 or more
7 came from picks 1-10
5 came from 11-20
7 games from pick 21 +

AFL doesn't wait, its brutal, if you want to be good be good early. Not many who aren't end good in the long run.

Having said that I have hopes for Will but only 2 games in your 1st season is a bit of a negative to me.

How many of those 67 players had injury interruptions?
 
The way I see it is that the top 10 picks are usually coming from bottom teams, so those kids are more likely to find senior spots a lot more easily.
Our club was looking for a flag and therefore the younger players were less likely to get games.
Will did pretty well in the games he played, he was definitely not disgraced and if he had gotten a string of games I have no doubt he would have come on really well.
I'm sure someone will come in with the he has to bulk up comments. 😵‍💫
Again a popular theory but it doesnt hold much water. In the top 10 of 2024 8 of the 10 played and we can assume Jagga Smith would have except for the ACL

Those 8 played for Brisbane, Adelaide, Gold Coast, St Kilda x2, Melb, Rich and NM so pretty even spread.

The way I think about is start at the elite talents who tend to be high draft picks, Daicos, Ashcroft x 2, JHF, etc. they are more like a top 10 picked in the side round 1 year 1 no matter who they land with and it goes down from there. The good kids will always push out less talented players year one in top or bottom sides. Agree the bottom sides will be a bit easier but these kids play no matter
 
I understand why its a common belief, kids picked later often need more time, but i think the stats tell a different story.

Real truth is while more of the early picks play season one the later picks who end up good also play just as early.

Using your thought that 2 games for a player outside the top ten equals a decent season is a low mark

67 players from the 2024 national draft as 18 year olds

19 played 10 or more games
9 played between 5-9 games
7 played 3-4 games

So if you played 2 games 34 of 67 of you peers played more.

Of the 19 who played 10 or more
7 came from picks 1-10
5 came from 11-20
7 games from pick 21 +

AFL doesn't wait, its brutal, if you want to be good be good early. Not many who aren't end good in the long run.

Having said that I have hopes for Will but only 2 games in your 1st season is a bit of a negative to me.
To clarify of his peers that played more games how many were at teams that were 10 points clear atop the ladder when they played? Context is always king and two games for a team that was streeting the field is worth 5-10 games of say a debutant at Richmond, Essendon or WC in 2025. If anything 2025 was the most anomalous debutant season of the century with only 9 teams in realistic finals contention by KB so debuts were being handed out like lollies on Halloween.

Essendon breaking the record for most ever being a perfect example. On the basis of what I saw Kako wouldn’t have played more than 2-3 games at Collingwood. He wouldn’t have broken in early season and tailed off as dramatically as Hayes.

FWIW I’d have his debut season as about average.
 
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Again a popular theory but it doesnt hold much water. In the top 10 of 2024 8 of the 10 played and we can assume Jagga Smith would have except for the ACL

Those 8 played for Brisbane, Adelaide, Gold Coast, St Kilda x2, Melb, Rich and NM so pretty even spread.

The way I think about is start at the elite talents who tend to be high draft picks, Daicos, Ashcroft x 2, JHF, etc. they are more like a top 10 picked in the side round 1 year 1 no matter who they land with and it goes down from there. The good kids will always push out less talented players year one in top or bottom sides. Agree the bottom sides will be a bit easier but these kids play no matter

I think you might need to look at this more closely.

In 2021 when we sucked, we had 5 draftees debut, who all played a fair bit:

McCreery 13 games
Ginni 5
Poulter 11
Henry 10
Macrae 9

No way those kids would get anywhere near that number of games in our current team.
 
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I think you might need to look at this more closely.

In 2021 when we sucked, we had 5 draftees debut, who all played a fair bit:

McCreery 13 games
Ginni 5
Poulter 11
Henry 10
Macrae 9

No way those kids would get anywhere near that number of games in our current team.
I think one important point is that we were in contention for the flag, so that tends to reduce the opportunities for debuts.
 
I think one important point is that we were in contention for the flag, so that tends to reduce the opportunities for debuts.
I'd also add that different teams have different philosphies around development. Some clubs have a get games into them philosophy whilst some wait until they're more ready to play them regularly.
 

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