Will the Swans improve in 2019 and if so, how?

[Redfern]

Pretty simple guys - I want to see whether you think the Swans will improve on their first week finals finish from 2018 or will they struggle to keep afloat?

What are the positives coming into 2019 so far and what are the negatives?

 

[Kapanis]

Pretty simple guys - I want to see whether you think the Swans will improve on their first week finals finish from 2018 or will they struggle to keep afloat?

What are the positives coming into 2019 so far and what are the negatives?

We need to know who's actually in the team first Redfern

 

[Swannnnn]

Well positives is we unearthed some talent in McCartin and Ronke, and put more games into the likes of Florent and Hayward. Heeney and Hewitt have taken a step further in their development and it was good to see Aliir back in the side.

Our struggles in the middle this year are well known and seem to be as a result of a collective drop off in our senior leaders in Kennedy, Jack, Hannebery coupled with a ruck who was essentially 3rd in line at the start of the year (admittedly he performed admirably). I'm optimistic we can improve in 2019. The younger brigade just needs to take a step further to lessen the load on the senior guys.

 

[Punts]

7th - 12th is my prediction

List is around that mark imo

 

[Mick Oxlong]

7th - 12th is my prediction

List is around that mark imo

I think it’s better than that if fit. Reid is crucial, along with Melican but we do need to get more speed and aggression. Game plan definitely holds us to your prediction, I agree!

 

[Number37]

With our awesome game plan, premiership winning coach, playing group and Buddy we should win the flag in 2019.

 

[sataris]

Just had a quick look in the research room.

We have quite a number of quarters where score 2 goals or less.

No idea what the average is but, I got to 15 quarters and stopped counting.

that's nearly 4 games of kicking 8 goals/game.

 

[Number37]

Just had a quick look in the research room.

We have quite a number of quarters where score 2 goals or less.

No idea what the average is but, I got to 15 quarters and stopped counting.

that's nearly 4 games of kicking 8 goals/game.

True to research room form, that is only a part of the picture.

Our opposition might only score 1 goal a quarter.
The league average might only be 1.5 goals a quarter.

Why does the research room have such a negative view of the Swans?

 

[sataris]

True to research room form, that is only a part of the picture.

Our opposition might only score 1 goal a quarter.
The league average might only be 1.5 goals a quarter.

Why does the research room have such a negative view of the Swans?

Given that we had the worst percentage of anyone in the top 8 (by some margin) suggests the average is a lot higher, I'll calculate it once I get some time.

Also the research room doesn't have 'negative' or 'positive' views. It just has numbers. I didn't offer an opinion as to why, or my own thoughts. (learning from the master swansfan51 ) to the low scoring quarters, however the research room is backed up by us kicking 2 goals in an elimination final, so
maybe the research room has a point?

 

[Number37]

Given that we had the worst percentage of anyone in the top 8 (by some margin) suggests the average is a lot higher, I'll calculate it once I get some time.

Also the research room doesn't have 'negative' or 'positive' views. It just has numbers. I didn't offer an opinion as to why, or my own thoughts. (learning from the master swansfan51 ) to the low scoring quarters, however the research room is backed up by us kicking 2 goals in an elimination final, so
maybe the research room has a point?

Context.
Stats only have meaning in context.

I was always taught...#1 rule with stats, don't believe a graph that doesn't start at zero. #2 rule, stats have no meaning unless you give them context.

 

[RobbieK]

There is plenty of reason to believe that getting a another pre-season in to the likes of Heeney, Mills, Allir, Ronke, Papley, Melican, Hayward, Florent and McCartin offers scope for improvement. Hopefully guys like O'Riordan and Dawson who have shown a lot at NEAFL level can make the step up to AFL. Having Naismith and Reid fit again will help our key position stocks a lot. Making improvements on the fringe players on the edge of the 22 through trades is a possibility and drafting Blakey who looks like he will be great, should give us another young player ready to play round 1. Shifting Hannebery to St Kilda and to free up some space for a fresh replacement for him after a couple of down years. Tippett's money is mostly off the books now, so that frees up another place on the list too.

Yeah, I think there are a few reasons to be optimistic.

 

[sataris]

Context.
Stats only have meaning in context.

I was always taught...#1 rule with stats, don't believe a graph that doesn't start at zero. #2 rule, stats have no meaning unless you give them context.

I'm not going to write out a large post because * that.

1. Shitty percentage (Indicates we're either scoring less, or conceding more (or both).
2. Comparing to 2017 our points conceded is basically the same, which means our attack has fallen.
3. Scored 271 points less than last year.
4. 271 points is a not a lot. (However, keep reading).
5. 22 H & A games, 271 points / 22 games = 12 points (or 2 goals).
6. Scoring 2 goals/game less than last year.
7. We've lost 4 games by 12 points or less (If we kick an extra 2 goals/game, and our defence maintains its stinginess we win 4 more games)
8. We've won 5 games by 12 points or less (If our scoring drops even further, or the defence weakens, we lose another 5 games)
9. 9 games where our missing 2 goals have had major impact.
10. The end.

--------------------------------

My opinion

With the competition being as tight as it is, 2 goals/game difference could be a 9 game turnaround for the swans.

Need to arrest the slide before it gets worse.

 

[Number37]

I'm not going to write out a large post because **** that.

1. Shitty percentage (Indicates we're either scoring less, or conceding more (or both).
2. Comparing to 2017 our points conceded is basically the same, which means our attack has fallen.
3. Scored 271 points less than last year.
4. 271 points is a not a lot. (However, keep reading).
5. 22 H & A games, 271 points / 22 games = 12 points (or 2 goals).
6. Scoring 2 goals/game less than last year.
7. We've lost 4 games by 12 points or less (If we kick an extra 2 goals/game, and our defence maintains its stinginess we win 4 more games)
8. We've won 5 games by 12 points or less (If our scoring drops even further, or the defence weakens, we lose another 5 games)
9. 9 games where our missing 2 goals have had major impact.
10. The end.

--------------------------------

My opinion

With the competition being as tight as it is, 2 goals/game difference could be a 9 game turnaround for the swans.

Need to arrest the slide before it gets worse.

Quick question:

How does our missing 2 goals have an impact on the 5 games we won by 12 or less? If we scored 2 more goals wouldn't we just have won by 12 more points?

Shouldn't #9 be 4 games where our missing 2 goals had a major impact?

 

[sataris]

Quick question:

How does our missing 2 goals have an impact on the 5 games we won by 12 or less? If we scored 2 more goals wouldn't we just have won by 12 more points?

Shouldn't #9 be 4 games where our missing 2 goals had a major impact?

True,

I wanted to highlight how many games a 2 goal swing (in either direction) could affect a modern game of footy.

 

[Number37]

True,

I wanted to highlight how many games a 2 goal swing (in either direction) could affect a modern game of footy.

How can you tell the difference between when we are trying to score and when we are not trying to score?

 

[The King!]

Sure, could win at home

 

[kelpie_X]

I'll predict we will win one more at home. That's an improvement

 

[bungee]

There is plenty of reason to believe that getting a another pre-season in to the likes of Heeney, Mills, Allir, Ronke, Papley, Melican, Hayward, Florent and McCartin offers scope for improvement. Hopefully guys like O'Riordan and Dawson who have shown a lot at NEAFL level can make the step up to AFL. Having Naismith and Reid fit again will help our key position stocks a lot. Making improvements on the fringe players on the edge of the 22 through trades is a possibility and drafting Blakey who looks like he will be great, should give us another young player ready to play round 1. Shifting Hannebery to St Kilda and to free up some space for a fresh replacement for him after a couple of down years. Tippett's money is mostly off the books now, so that frees up another place on the list too.

Yeah, I think there are a few reasons to be optimistic.

Good summary of reasons to be cheerful.

The other thing we might need is a relatively injury free year. Losing Buddy's buddys, ie, the loss of the other three tall forwards in Reid, Tippet and Sinclair, hurt us badly. McCartin did OK for a kid and will learn heaps from it but we struggled to score. Put Reid, Buddy and Sinclair forward with Paps, Ronke & Hayward feeding hungrily at their feet. Put Naismith in the ruck with a much improved Florent, Heeney and maybe Mills/Jones backing up JPK and Parker and we have the core of a solid midfield. Get Melican and Smith back. Anyone new we can add into the mix is just a bonus. Heaps of depth from 2018. More settled roles will allow more cameos forward, centre and back from up and coming guys with all the support they need to do well.

Nothing wrong with the game plan. WC isn't dissimilar. They won all their games with Kennedy and Darling together but struggled without the two. We only had our two most experienced tall forwards for the first couple of games in 2018. That makes a lot of difference.

 

[Kirkswan]

Also the research room doesn't have 'negative' or 'positive' views. It just has numbers. I didn't offer an opinion as to why, or my own thoughts. (learning from the master swansfan51 ) to the low scoring quarters, however the research room is backed up by us kicking 2 goals in an elimination final, so
maybe the research room has a point?

swansfan51 definitely uses stats to highlight his point of view. That's not to insult him, its just what happens as an individual. The statistics itself has no value except as a base fact, however by using/highlighting selective statistics in particular situations, they can give the appearance of validating or invalidating opposing views.

Context.
Stats only have meaning in context.

I was always taught...#1 rule with stats, don't believe a graph that doesn't start at zero. #2 rule, stats have no meaning unless you give them context.

Exactly!

 

[Kirkswan]

How can you tell the difference between when we are trying to score and when we are not trying to score?

 

[swansfan51]

Also the research room doesn't have 'negative' or 'positive' views. It just has numbers.

I think I've found my new sig

 

[Tedeski]

Pretty simple guys - I want to see whether you think the Swans will improve on their first week finals finish from 2018 or will they struggle to keep afloat?

What are the positives coming into 2019 so far and what are the negatives?

We will have 3 new recruits in 2019.
Reid, Melican & Naismith.
How's that looking so far Redfern?

 

[Punts]

We will have 3 new recruits in 2019.
Reid, Melican & Naismith.
How's that looking so far Redfern?

All 3 injury prone , one who isn’t far of the worst around the ruck in the comp

Reid doesn’t play

 

[Tedeski]

All 3 injury prone , one who isn’t far of the worst around the ruck in the comp

Reid doesn’t play

Buddy's just come off surgery on both knees, had a groin issue & also a heel issue.
He could be finished too.

 

[Punts]

Buddy's just come off surgery on both knees, had a groin issue & also a heel issue.
He could be finished too.

Well you carry a forward line because Tippett and Reid are useless when it comes to playing then that happens at the later stages of a career