Preview Winning the Flag

[wild side]

Does anyone seriously think we can win the flag from 5th.
Unprecedented and all, the word of the pandemic?
Anyone, bueller?
For the record, I don't!
But................................

 

[dxlr8]

Win the next 4 and anything is possible.....

 

[wild side]

I take that as a Yes dxlr8

Thing is we have to travel for 3 weeks to win it, we'd have to be Brizzy Lions at their peak

 

[WaywardSonSon]

Win the next 4 and anything is possible.....

Isn't it the next three?

 

[Descent]

Isn't it the next three?

I feel the same way about the bulldogs.

 

[Taylor]

Getting to the Grand Final gives us a chance at the flag. Any team can have a belter of a game on their day where it all clicks.
Getting to the prelim gives us a chance at making the GF. Any team can have a belter of a game on their day where it all clicks.
Getting to the semi gives us a chance of qualifying for a prelim. Any team can have a belter of a game on their day where it all clicks.
We need to beat the Dogs.

 

[Purple Suit]

Fun fact, in 2016 the Bulldogs had less experience in finals (total games) than Freo will next week. Winning 15 games means we are good enough, just need a lot of luck and hope we build up some huge MCG momentum while our opponents struggle.

We have to win next week first though.

 

[Purple Suit]

Another fun fact, no one has won it from 4th since the current top 8 system came in. Carlton being useless could have its advantages.

 

[dxlr8]

Another fun fact, the future has not yet been written

 

[wild side]

Another fun fact, no one has won it from 4th since the current top 8 system came in. Carlton being useless could have its advantages.

Pretty sure the Bulldogs in 2016 won from outside the Top 4.
Won an elimination final in 2016 against the toast at Subi in the first week
They came from 7th

 

[Cobbler]

Personally I think we need to play Cats in 2nd week or have them lose the prelim. Need to hope for Lions or Swans at MCG.

Why can’t we do it?

Our best stacks up. So, the only question you need to ask is can we bring our best 4 weeks in a row?

 

[MrDanggazz]

Let’s just beat the Dogs first, lets not get ahead of ourselves.

 

[gaskin]

No I don't. I think we will get to the prelim but we will be shown up by Melbourne or Sydney.

 

[malpaso]

Pretty sure the Bulldogs in 2016 won from outside the Top 4.
Won an elimination final in 2016 against the toast at Subi in the first week
They came from 7th

He specifically said 'from 4th'

 

[Square Peg]

No I don't. I think we will get to the prelim but we will be shown up by Melbourne or Sydney.

Same
I think the biggest impediment to making a prelim is winning this week. We have Geelong or Collingwood's measure, I am more worried about the doggies going nuts and beating us than those two.
But then I reckon we'll be tired, sore and get pumped in the prelim

 

[sumavich]

Ok no one has won from 4th, but has anyone won from 5th? Unprecedented like the opener stated.
Can’t see it myself, hope I’m wrong

 

[King Huskii]

Here's my opinion. Although I'm no expert

The top 8 are all good to very good teams. On their day each team can be quality.

Freo are good enough to beat all top 8 teams.

IMO Freo are a 50/50 chance against all teams

This means they have a 50 per cent chance each week. 4 times in a row is unlikely but far from impossible. It's basic probability.

Home or away Freo are equally as good. I actually think the lads enjoy playing at the G.

I'm not writing them off

 

[Sweetback]

Maybe the Mundy story helps with a bit more motivation. Get a Lobb back, hopefully Logue, put a rocket up the likes of Schulz, Freddy, Switta and Sonny, who knows? Our density is in our hands.

 

[King Huskii]

On another note not making the top 4 and avoiding the Thursday or Friday time slot without travel this week has allowed Lobb, Logue and Tabs extra time to be ready for the game. Plus may help Fyfe, NOD and Switta who copped heavy knocks and are feeling sore.

It could work in our favour.

If Freo lost to Geelong with travel and shorter break could be more detrimental than if Freo win Week 1 at home with the exact same amount of games to play.

 

[Mr Cheese]

I think if we score more than the opposition we're a chance

 

[mightymouse75]

I think 5th is a blessing.
Time to repair the sore and injured, get back into it and allow us to play into some mid season form.
We have building the last month, just havnt quite hit put straps yet..

 

[The Round House Drunk]

I don’t think we will win the flag this year.

Our best can beat anyone on its day, but the probability of us performing at or near our best for 3 weeks in a row (as would be required to win the semi, prelim and GF - all away) is very slim, maybe something like 5%.

I was crushed with disappointment after the 2015 prelim as it was ‘premiership or bust’ for me. It took me to a deep, dark place that I don’t want to go back to.

To avoid similar this year, I’m viewing the home final against WB as the acid test to shape my perception and memory of the season. Win that, and all the emotion I’ve invested in 2022 will be worth it many times over.

 

[EastcoastDocker]

No one wins it from outside the top 4 normally because the gap between. The top few teams and the rest is normally large. This year you can pretty much throw a blanket over top 5/6 teams in terms of win/loss.

Also with the pre-finals bye I think having 2 weeks off in a month probably does more harm then good for qualifying final winners. This won't be shown in stats because they on are generally better teams anyway. Port had 2 weeks off out of 3 and got absolutely jumped and embarassed by Bulldogs.

Win this week and get the boys into a melb hub for 3 weeks. They will be so nsync with one another they will be as well choreographed as a boy band as they dance all over their opponents singing bye bye bye. Seriously if you look at hub vs non hub teams last year statistically speaking hub teams performed better.

 

[mattis117]

No one wins it from outside the top 4 normally because the gap between. The top few teams and the rest is normally large. This year you can pretty much throw a blanket over top 5/6 teams in terms of win/loss.

Also with the pre-finals bye I think having 2 weeks off in a month probably does more harm then good for qualifying final winners. This won't be shown in stats because they on are generally better teams anyway. Port had 2 weeks off out of 3 and got absolutely jumped and embarassed by Bulldogs.

Win this week and get the boys into a melb hub for 3 weeks. They will be so nsync with one another they will be as well choreographed as a boy band as they dance all over their opponents singing bye bye bye. Seriously if you look at hub vs non hub teams last year statistically speaking hub teams performed better.

It will be interesting to see the stats on whether the pre finals bye has diluted the advantage the week off provided for the qualifying final winner, I think we need a few more years of data to get a good picture

 

[EastcoastDocker]

It will be interesting to see the stats on whether the pre finals bye has diluted the advantage the week off provided for the qualifying final winner, I think we need a few more years of data to get a good picture

Pre finals bye since 2016. The question is are winners of qualifying finals disadvantaged by a week off.

2016
Both winners of qualifying finals fail to win prelim.

2017
Both winners of qualifying finals win prelim

2018
Split 1 won (scum) 1 lost (dominant Richmond team ripped apart by mason coz)

2019
Split 1/1. Qualifying final winner pies lost to 6th place gws. Dynasty Richmond qualifying final winner won prelim (no surprise)

2020
Both qualifying final winners lose prelims against travelling (hub) teams who finished lower than them on ladder

2021
Split.
Dominant Melbourne side wins qualifying final n prelim
Port inexplicably don't turn up after their week off getting blown out.

Since the pre finals bye has been introduced qualifying final winners are 5wins 7 losses. When you factor in the fact that they are playing prelims at home often against lower ranked teams that's quite alarming. A lot of those wins are from clearly dominant teams like Melbourne last year, Richmond during dynasty and the powerstance Adelaide
Crows where they were heavily favoured to win, often against an interstate team.