- Nov 24, 2007
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Opinion Wins Before the Bye...
- Thread starter Essendonia
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Mercurial89
Brownlow Medallist
Tbh my thinking is this week isn't really season defining or even a great indicator. If your trying to measure early season form and see how a team has changed I think you need to look to next week against Richmond.
Now of course this early it means nothing but consistent effort is what I'm looking for this year (results would be great but I'm trying to be realistic, no flag this year) west coast games are normally great games and we get ourselves up for them. I hav no doubt we will this week. Consistent form should lead us to 10-1 at most 8-3 at least. What games we do drop will say more than the wins though.
Now of course this early it means nothing but consistent effort is what I'm looking for this year (results would be great but I'm trying to be realistic, no flag this year) west coast games are normally great games and we get ourselves up for them. I hav no doubt we will this week. Consistent form should lead us to 10-1 at most 8-3 at least. What games we do drop will say more than the wins though.
Ben the Gooner
Stand by Hird
Brilliant comment. Agree 100%.
Yep we've over the last few years we haven't had much trouble beating the top sides but had more trouble being consistent and it ends up us losing games to the likes of Richmond and Melbourne.
I'm pretty confident about this weekend but more worried about the Richmond game!
Doss
Ass
- Aug 1, 2011
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West Coast- 50/50
Richmond- win
GWS- win
Melbourne- win
Sydney- 50/50
Fremantle- loss
Footscray- win
St Kilda- win
Port- win
Geelong- 50/50
Hawthorn- 50/50
Adelaide- 50/50
North- 50/50
Carlton- 50/50
Richmond- win
Collingwood- 50/50
If you add 1/2 win for each 50/50 game (presuming we win some and lose some of those '50/50 games') and the rest of the results fell as I have predicted here, we would end up with 16 wins.
Just to use an example, though, if Collingwood lost say Swan and Pendlebury to ACLs and we were okay injury-wise, then our game against them later in the year becomes a probable win.
Long-rang predicting is fun, but ultimately pointless because there are just too many variables.
Richmond- win
GWS- win
Melbourne- win
Sydney- 50/50
Fremantle- loss
Footscray- win
St Kilda- win
Port- win
Geelong- 50/50
Hawthorn- 50/50
Adelaide- 50/50
North- 50/50
Carlton- 50/50
Richmond- win
Collingwood- 50/50
If you add 1/2 win for each 50/50 game (presuming we win some and lose some of those '50/50 games') and the rest of the results fell as I have predicted here, we would end up with 16 wins.
Just to use an example, though, if Collingwood lost say Swan and Pendlebury to ACLs and we were okay injury-wise, then our game against them later in the year becomes a probable win.
Long-rang predicting is fun, but ultimately pointless because there are just too many variables.
Lord Nicholson
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Err... why would we play with such hypotheticals?
Doss
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To simply demonstrate that what we might think to be a 50/50 game now, might not be in two months.
And that really, long range tipping or predicting is almost impossible for that very reason.
Not trying to put the mozz on Swan or Pendlebury or anyone else!
Essendonia
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We've gone over the pointlessness and futility aspects of long-range tipping earlier in this thread
I reckon Goodes will be back, just for us. He has to atone for his miss last season.
I think people are getting a little too excited about where we're going to be sitting at the half way mark.
8-3 or 9-2 do seem very reallistic predictions, which looks incredible by itself. However, the combination of:
- the evenness at the top this year over previous years;
- the fact that it is a top 8 out of 18 teams, as opposed to 8 of 16/17;
- and the fact that there are a few teams at the bottom that will flat out struggle to win more than a couple of games;
Means that 13 wins would be a pre-requisite just to make the 8, I'll tell you that now for free.
Coming from 8 or 9 wins, we'd still need 5-6 or 4-7 from our tougher run home just to scrape in. I fully expect us to do this mind you, but talk of us cruising to top 6 or top 4 on the back of the first half is a little premature I think.
8-3 or 9-2 do seem very reallistic predictions, which looks incredible by itself. However, the combination of:
- the evenness at the top this year over previous years;
- the fact that it is a top 8 out of 18 teams, as opposed to 8 of 16/17;
- and the fact that there are a few teams at the bottom that will flat out struggle to win more than a couple of games;
Means that 13 wins would be a pre-requisite just to make the 8, I'll tell you that now for free.
Coming from 8 or 9 wins, we'd still need 5-6 or 4-7 from our tougher run home just to scrape in. I fully expect us to do this mind you, but talk of us cruising to top 6 or top 4 on the back of the first half is a little premature I think.
Essendonia
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Some Bomberfans are seriously jumping the gun on this board.
I think in the next few weeks, a lot of teams will start to settle with their form and we'll get a fair idea of who will be shaping September. Might bump this about Rd 11, but not before.
I think in the next few weeks, a lot of teams will start to settle with their form and we'll get a fair idea of who will be shaping September. Might bump this about Rd 11, but not before.
Jesus, I didn't realize we were playing GWS and Melbourne after Bichmond. Completely forgot.
What a gimme!
What a gimme!
Essendonia
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Well, now we can look back on the first half of the season. I think 'wasted opportunity' is a fair way to describe it.
8-3 is not too bad on paper, but when put into the context of what actually happened (big wins over west coast and carlton - both arguably flag favourites at the time) our recent losses really take the shine off what has really been a significant step forward for the club under St Jimmy.
Whilst I won't be making a prediction thread for the second half of the season, we all know that we're a chance for Top 4 if we can find regain consistency and win on the road.
If you look at the ladder, of current top 8 teams, we have lost to Collingwood and Sydney, defeating Carlton and West Coast. The other teams we haven't yet played should not hold fear for us, but it will be a tough run home, culminating in what will almost certainly be a season-defining match against Collingwood in Round 23.
The first step will be to break the hoodoo in Subi and knock off Lyon's Freo. With two recent losses, nothing short of a win will get our season back on track. A loss here could almost certainly spell the end of any Top 4 aspirations and maybe even a home final in the first week. Must win match against Freo, who have been grinding out wins recently.
8-3 is not too bad on paper, but when put into the context of what actually happened (big wins over west coast and carlton - both arguably flag favourites at the time) our recent losses really take the shine off what has really been a significant step forward for the club under St Jimmy.
Whilst I won't be making a prediction thread for the second half of the season, we all know that we're a chance for Top 4 if we can find regain consistency and win on the road.
If you look at the ladder, of current top 8 teams, we have lost to Collingwood and Sydney, defeating Carlton and West Coast. The other teams we haven't yet played should not hold fear for us, but it will be a tough run home, culminating in what will almost certainly be a season-defining match against Collingwood in Round 23.
The first step will be to break the hoodoo in Subi and knock off Lyon's Freo. With two recent losses, nothing short of a win will get our season back on track. A loss here could almost certainly spell the end of any Top 4 aspirations and maybe even a home final in the first week. Must win match against Freo, who have been grinding out wins recently.
Lord Nicholson
El Supremo
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I reckon we've botched our Top 4 chances. There you go.
Just need to make the best of what's left, really.
Just need to make the best of what's left, really.
We might make 4th. Maybe. Just went through a predictor and had us 5th, one game off 4th, a similar gap to 3rd.
I very much doubt we'll get top 2.
I very much doubt we'll get top 2.
Doss
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The Melbourne game is the one we will come to rue. Losing to Sydney was at least excusable; they're a pretty good side.
There was, and never will be, an excuse for dropping that game to Melbourne.
There was, and never will be, an excuse for dropping that game to Melbourne.
Kong
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I'm not necessarily arguing, but why are people saying we won't finish in the four, now?
How many wins for the year, now?
Who've you got making it instead; how many wins for them?
How many wins for the year, now?
Who've you got making it instead; how many wins for them?
BrewSmackerVeiny
Club Legend
If we finish the last 11 rounds going 8-3 and end on 16-6 we can make top 4(probably thru percentage) but then we'll play either Adelaide or WCE away, or the pies at the G. Or finish 5th and play any of tigers/cats/swans/blues/saints/freo. Either way i think we're probably looking at a semi final the next week. (i have Hawks as either 4th/5th like us)
Childish Gambino
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Kong
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Have Sydney and Hawthorn got far easier draws or something, though?
Lord Nicholson
El Supremo
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Hawks have got Lions, Giants, PA, and the Suns.
Swans have got Giants, Lions, Suns.
Swans have got Giants, Lions, Suns.
Kong
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Ah, fair enough.
Dwight Schrute
Club Legend
To be honest, unless we can defeat at least 3 of Fremantle, WB, St Kilda and North we havent improved HUGELY. WB and North games will tell a lot about us and whether we have moved on from the old "Beat 1st on the ladder one week and lose to bottom 4 side the next" Essendon.
Scrapping with Sydney for fourth on 15-16 wins. Collingwood, Adelaide and West Coast all have the quality and fixture to secure top 4 spots. Hawthorn, Geelong and Freo to round out the 8 with at least 13 wins.
Assuming no more collapses into mediocrity, I think I'll come down to Sydney's Geelong at Kardinia, West Coast away & Collingwood at ANZ against Essendon's Freo away, Adelaide away & Collingwood at the MCG. Both sides have tough enough games outside that though that it's fairly unpredictable.
vast
Hall of Famer
What about the beat top of the ladder lose to the worst side since carlton of the early to mid 2000's, essendon? I think out last two weeks have proven we are inconsistent as ever. Beating those sides wont wipe away the loss to melbourne as there will still be no doubt that we can lose to just about anybody on our day, unfortunately.
Honestly, if we end up missing the 4 but losing our games by a kick or less I'll be happy because it shows we've moved forward. I hate that we've lost 3 games we could've won but at the same time, we haven't been blown away and absolutely stomped on like we have in previous years. This year might turn out to be a missed opportunity but at least we are on the upward path.
