Opinion Wins Before the Bye...

[Essendonia]

Rd 3 v Gold Coast (Metricon) - This is clearly a winnable match. Despite the fact that the match is up at Metricon, we managed a couple of wins interstate last season, and should have the wood on GC with the 139-point victory. Key is starting strongly in the first quarter and simply winning each quarter after that.

Rd 4 v Carlton (MCG) - Assuming that we have 3 wins in the bank by this match, we should be pretty confident of making this match competitive. It appears as though - as much as I hate to say it - Carlton appear to be quite a good team this season. If they have Waite and Thornton, plus all of the mids in place, they are hard to beat. That said, if we play our own brand we can win; we should have them in the ruck and in the offensive 50, but Betts and Garlett always get in behind us far too easily. Can mark this down as a loss for now and the sake of this exercise.

Rd 5 v Collingwood (MCG) - After Carlton match, might be 3-1 or 4-0. Either way, as long as we put in a competitive display against the Blues, we should be right in this match as well. Obviously, this Collingwood team have been great over the past couple of years, but from what we've seen this year so far, they might be slipping. Or, they might be biding their time until September. We saw on the weekend how much damage they can do in 6 or 7 minutes, but a four-quarter effort would be required to compete and win here. These two matches will be a good test of our status in 2012. May depend on how much we can curb Thomas, Pendles and Cloke. Mark this as perhaps another close loss.

Rd 6 v Brisbane (Etihad) - Brisbane are Brisbane. You can never write them off completely, but they really are a developing or rebuilding side that relies too heavily on its old heroes, Black and Brown. Black may still be out for this match, and hopefully Brown doesn't succumb to another facial injury and will be on the park. Brisbane have some talent on their list, but we would like to think that we are ahead of them in building towards a flag. Apart from Brown, Brisbane lack significant forward options, and Crameri, Hurley and resting ruck might stretch them down back. I would back our mids to win that battle and put us back on track with a hard-fought win. 4-2.

Rd 7 v West Coast (Etihad) - We won this fixture in 2011, by a close margin, and it was probably essential to us 'playing' finals last year. WC are shaping up to be as strong as last year, if not stronger with the development of Kennedy and Darling. If we have improved, we must win this home fixture to consolidate ourselves. This might be the 12th or 13th straight win at Etihad too; it is good to be able to exert a home ground advantage, just as the interstate clubs do. By no means an easy game, but a mini-final in the sense that it shapes the year ahead. 5-2.

Rd 8 v Richmond (MCG) - Dreamtime. Have to win our respect back after losing last year by 9 points. That match derailed us mid-year in 2011; cannot afford to have it happen again. Richmond are an unknown quantity in 2012 after a strong pre-season, but current form does not promise much. They have improved, but so have we. Another must-win that is certainly within grasp. Richmond forwards are dysfunctional and mids inconsistent and unrealiable, coming in and out of matches (apart from Cotchin). 6-2.

Rd 9 v GWS (Skoda) - The first match against Sheeds. Before this, GWS play GC and Brisbane away, and might come back with a win from one of those games. Regardless of form for either side, we cannot afford to not take a percentage boost from this match. As has been seen, finals teams are notching up big wins against GC and GWS - we must do the same if we hope to get in the 8. 7-2.

Rd 10 v Melbourne (MCG) - Melbourne are a complete shambles. I would not be surprised if they find a way to win the spoon this year. They have some players, but are too soft, too young, lack leadership and won't be a force in 2012. They might have stabilised a bit in two months' time, but unless we are decimated by injury, I cannot see us losing this match. 8-2.

Rd 11 v Sydney (Etihad) - Those who remember this fixture late last season will recall how it came down to a kick from Goodes after the siren to seal the win. A hard-fought contest, we have developed a history of tight matches with Sydney. Early in 2011, we were perhaps robbed of a win up North by some unfortunate decisions, but ultimately, the scorecard shows that we are close to Sydney on numerous occasions. As this match is at Etihad, we need to win it. Shut down Goodes and we're halfway there. (Easier said than done.) 9-2.

From the above, we arrive at the Round 12 BYE with a record of 9 wins and 2 losses. Even if we accept a loss to West Coast at home in Rd 7, we would be sitting on 8-3, which is extremely healthy.

We know that the second half of the draw - particularly, the run home - will be quite difficult, so it is imperative that the Bombers develop or rediscover the culture to win the games we're expected to win (Melb, Rich), and also the 50-50 matches (WC, Syd).

I am glad that we have managed to notch two wins so far in matches that had potential to be losses. However, we need to start putting teams to the sword and burning them in the second half and aiming for solid wins on a consistent basis against the mediocre and mid-table teams; not scraping through. For example, we ran out the Port game in the end, but should not have let it get back to 2 points in the 3rd.

I am interested in other opinions on how we should end up at the BYE; I don't think that the win ratio set out above is fanciful or unrealistic...

 

[fishardansin]

Long range tipping is bullshit because we have no idea of injuries, form and opposition. That said as things stand now I'd expect us to win all those games except for Carlton and Collingwood.

 

[Summer Nights]

Sydney games seem to be close affairs and I wouldn't pencil that as a cert, not even at home.

I think the key to beating Carlton will be mixing it up a little. Midfield rotations will have to be really high. Bellchambers will need to stamp his authority on the contests when he rotates forward and I really want to see a crumbing forward like Dellolio make an entrance on the big stage.

Wellman and Thompson should focus on getting our defensive 6 to always have a crumber at the backs of packs to cover those goals that Betts & Garlett types seem to run on to.

The other thing will be that Robinson will most likely go to Fletcher again in a tagging job. If this happens, I'd be keen to see them actively put Hibberd onto Robinson to protect Fletch's rebound. Last time nobody looked after Dustin and the tag was a success, and it's not the first time.

I think we can beat them but we'll need to get the coaching moves right.

Leading into the bye, I think 2 losses is a slim chance but more likely to be 8 and 3. 7 and 4 would not be a disaster, depending on how we lose.

 

[Essendonia]

Long range tipping is bullshit because we have no idea of injuries, form and opposition. That said as things stand now I'd expect us to win all those games except for Carlton and Collingwood.

I agree. Richmond could turn a corner and start demolishing teams, making Dreamtime a largely different affair to how I described it. You never know.

I suppose it's basically an assessment of the fixture up to the BYE based on what formguide of teams we can gather from only two matches.

 

[Dwight Schrute]

Long range tipping is bullshit because we have no idea of injuries, form and opposition. That said as things stand now I'd expect us to win all those games except for Carlton and Collingwood.

Basically this, we could have a huge form drop and lose to teams like Richmond and Melbourne, I would say 7-5, possibly even 6-4

 

[Essendonia]

Sydney games seem to be close affairs and I wouldn't pencil that as a cert, not even at home.

I think the key to beating Carlton will be mixing it up a little. Midfield rotations will have to be really high. Bellchambers will need to stamp his authority on the contests when he rotates forward and I really want to see a crumbing forward like Dellolio make an entrance on the big stage.

Wellman and Thompson should focus on getting our defensive 6 to always have a crumber at the backs of packs to cover those goals that Betts & Garlett types seem to run on to.

The other thing will be that Robinson will most likely go to Fletcher again in a tagging job. If this happens, I'd be keen to see them actively put Hibberd onto Robinson to protect Fletch's rebound. Last time nobody looked after Dustin and the tag was a success, and it's not the first time.

I think we can beat them but we'll need to get the coaching moves right.

Leading into the bye, I think 2 losses is a slim chance but more likely to be 8 and 3. 7 and 4 would not be a disaster, depending on how we lose.

Coaching will play a significant role. I tend to agree with much of what you say concerning Carlton.

Hibberd has been great, and was missing last time.

On paper, after round 2, 9-2 looks achievable, though we have just lost Hille, Myers and NLM for the best part of a month. It will be interesting to see just how deep our list is, and whether O'Brien, Merrett, Steinberg, Del, Kav, will be called up, or Davey, Dyson, Reimers etc.

As you say, it is the manner of the losses that is significant too.

 

[Summer Nights]

Long range tipping can be fun, so long as it's done as objectively as possible. All too often, the 50/50 games are pencilled in as wins and that's when you start to have unrealistic expectations.

Losing to Carlton, West Coast, Collingwood and Sydney would be an objective 50/50 assessment at this stage, which would have us at 7 and 4.

As long as it's not taken too seriously, for the reasons mentioned here (i.e. changes in form for teams between now and then), I think there's no harm in it.

 

[Essendonia]

Basically this, we could have a huge form drop and lose to teams like Richmond and Melbourne, I would say 7-5, possibly even 6-4

Then I would ask to what extent we back our coaches and conditioning staff to get the boys physically and psychologically right to be able to back up week after week. There is now a reasonable 'core' group of players that play in the 22 each week, and the coaching group is not new anymore.

When is it reasonable to expect the mental fortitude to play consistently? Or does it come later in the year...?

 

[Essendonia]

Long range tipping can be fun, so long as it's done as objectively as possible. All too often, the 50/50 games are pencilled in as wins and that's when you start to have unrealistic expectations.

Losing to Carlton, West Coast, Collingwood and Sydney would be an objective 50/50 assessment at this stage, which would have us at 7 and 4.

As long as it's not taken too seriously, for the reasons mentioned here (i.e. changes in form for teams between now and then), I think there's no harm in it.

There are arguments to be made on the probability of victory in the Sydney match, I would think, but a conservative approach would concede that one, and perhaps even another danger match like the Brisbane or Richmond game.

I suppose that the type of forethought and analysis required to properly project opinions for this OP are too time-consuming. However, it is nice to look at the fixture and expect to be a solid position mid-season.

 

[Dwight Schrute]

Then I would ask to what extent we back our coaches and conditioning staff to get the boys physically and psychologically right to be able to back up week after week. There is now a reasonable 'core' group of players that play in the 22 each week, and the coaching group is not new anymore.

When is it reasonable to expect the mental fortitude to play consistently? Or does it come later in the year...?

When we start beating teams below us, that is when I will pencil in a win against these kinds of sides.

 

[Slattery_20]

To me that looks like
4 x you-better-bloody-win-its (GC GWS Brisbane Melbourne),
1 that we should win but might not (Richmond),
2 absolute 50/50s (Sydney WCE),
and 2 very, very hard match-ups (Carlton Collingwood).

8 wins by-the-bye (see what I did there? cute!) would be a good result, and easily achievable. 9-10 is hopeful, but not inconceivable.

If I had to put my name to it, I'd say we'll knock off the 4 easy ones, Richmond & the Swans. Get pipped by the Pies & Weagles, and thumped by the Blues - making 8-3 at the turn - sounds ludicrously good but in reality wouldn't be all that any impressive scalps.

Just like last year... for us it's more about playing consistently, keeping a side together, and being competitive against these good sides and building across the year (like WCE or Carlton did).



Unpopular opinion: Carlton are better than Collingwood at the moment. More to the point, they've got a nice run to build into the year, whereas Collingwood/Cats/Hawks are busy beating seven shades of s**t out of each other.

 

[Macca18]

I'm predicting we'll be 7-4 with just an average percentage.

Losses by comfortable (5-8 goal) margins to Carlton & Collingwood. The Eagles have started the year (even through the NAB Cup) in stunning form so I'd have them favourites, even at Etihad, for that game right at the moment.

We'll almost certainly drop a game we're expected to win along the way as well (either Melbourne or Richmond as they have troubled us in recent years, would probably lean towards the Tigers as they usually always treat Dreamtime as their Grand Final). Our record at the MCG recently is mediocre.

 

[BrunoV]

If we assume, as most of us do, that the restuls of early 2011 are the true reflection of our side we are should certainly not write ourselves off in any game.

There is a fair argument to be made that we should be disappointed to be worse than 9 wins and 2 losses by round 11 (not necessarily 2 losses to Carl and Coll - I can see us dropping one against WC/Syd and picking one up against Carl/Coll).

Carlton and Collingwood are obviously the really difficult games. I don't know that we have to concede both of these games though. When up and running early last year we drew with Carlton with two injured players for 2.5 quarters (after early dominance) and broke even with Collingwood for 5 or 6 of the 8 quarters we played against them. The two games against Carlton later in 2011 are obviously a concern but we were seriously undermanned in both - it will depend on whether the run that is present in their midfield will kill us anyway (we may match up better on the Pies these days).

We are better than GCS, Richmond, Melbourne and GWS. Hopefully the two results this year are a sign that we can finally expect to beat sides were are better than.

We ran Sydney to the line in Sydney and then just managed to beat them at Etihad. We also beat West Coast at Etihad last year. Sydney and West Coast are both improving sides but, then again, so are we.

Given that West Coast is not the same side in Melbourne and that we don't really loose to Sydney at Etihad we should not fear either of these two games. It is not like West Coast and Sydney (and Carlton for that matter) have done anything to an opposition that we wouldn't expect to do ourselves.

I'd take 8 and 3 (obviously) but would be pissed off with 7 and 4. If we fall in a heap injury wise then we'd have to reassess.

 

[Lord Nicholson]

The Eagles have started the year (even through the NAB Cup) in stunning form

Which team of quality have they played against yet?

There are a lot of accepted truths for Round 2. Perhaps the Eagles will dominate and run rampant, but I want to see them really genuinely tested first.

 

[Philzsay]

Just as long as we don't lose to the likes of GC, Bris, Ric, GWS or Melbourne.

The most dissappointing part of recent seasons has been losing to teams we should comfortable beat, if we are to 'improve' as Hirdy often says we simply hvae to put these teams away.

 

[Macca18]

Just as long as we don't lose to the likes of GC, Bris, Ric, GWS or Melbourne.

The most dissappointing part of recent seasons has been losing to teams we should comfortable beat, if we are to 'improve' as Hirdy often says we simply hvae to put these teams away.

GWS aside, I am (unfortunately) extremely confident we will lose to one of those teams you listed. Mental lapses during games will cost us again.

 

[Macca18]

Which team of quality have they played against yet?

There are a lot of accepted truths for Round 2. Perhaps the Eagles will dominate and run rampant, but I want to see them really genuinely tested first.

The facts are they finished top 4 last year and we didn't. We narrowly beat them at Etihad early in the season last year but they thumped us by nearly 10 goals in our second meeting at Subiaco.

They've already travelled to Etihad this year and beat the Bulldogs by 9 goals. They will be confident playing us anywhere.

 

[Ben the Gooner]

8-3 should be the minimum expectation, and anything less than that would be a huge failure.

 

[The Prosecutor]

I'll say we'll finish 8-3, though would accept 7-4 provided the losses are against Carlton, Collingwood, West Coast and Sydney.

9+ wins as stated above is hopeful, but is achievable.

 

[Essendonia]

I am willing to (albeit nervously) back the boys to win the lesser games (GC, GWS, Bris, Rich, Melb) because we simply have to. Anything less in these matches is a backwards step, which we cannot afford to be taking.

Even if we were to knock off Carlton or Collingwood, or beat WC or Syd, losing those lesser matches is a sign that we have not progressed. For example, despite our wins against the Saints in years gone by and Geelong last season, we had poor performances against mediocre sides.

Definitely need to build consistency. From there, the big scalps will come, I reckon.

It's a shame that we had to lose Myers and Hille (even NLM) just as we looked to have a pretty set 22 too. If you can pencil in the same boys each week, it goes a long way to assist consistency with one group playing together in same positions...Of course, tweaks will be needed from time to time depending on opposition.

 

[Lord Nicholson]

We narrowly beat them at Etihad early in the season last year but they thumped us by nearly 10 goals in our second meeting at Subiaco.

We played pretty poorly for most of the match at Etihad and won on the back of solid third quarter. Comfortably better than them on the day, even with Nic Nat chucking like nobody's business.

Did alright at Subi until we just plain ran out of troops, considering we had withheld Hurley and a few others, IIRC.

It'll be difficult, but at this point, from this far out and in a purely speculative fashion, surely you back your team in.

 

[Slattery_20]

Which team of quality have they played against yet?

There are a lot of accepted truths for Round 2. Perhaps the Eagles will dominate and run rampant, but I want to see them really genuinely tested first.

This is the thing... as I was saying in some other prediction thread, they've only got a couple of absolutely tough games across the whole year.Hawks MCG (rd 13) and Pies MCG (rd 23). Cats and Blues @ Subi won't be all that daunting for them and they play most of the other finalists at home, too.

IMHO they'll win - minimum - 17 for the year, in face in my long range tipping I've got them down for 19.
And I haven't seen the side that is going to knock them off, at Subi, in a prelim. Not yet, anyway.


</premature evaluation>

 

[Lord Nicholson]

Wouldn't write off the Dockers to push them at Subi.

 

[eth-dog]

Everyone says Carlton will be a loss; I'm not so sure. They look good, yes, but their real test will be this Friday, because I think Collingwood are a very good side with the right sort of defence to quieten the very near elite small forward line of Carlton. I'll wait until after Friday to decide who'll win in the game against Carlton.

I also think Dempsey/Hibberd will be capable enough to somewhat limit Garlett and Betts. I personally don't think Waite and Hampson are good key forwards, and I think that Hardingham will be able to limit Judd/Lucas/Simpson when they're playing forward.

The midfield is the problem. We need to seriously stop Murphy, and hope that Watson and Judd can cancel each other out, we just need to stop them.

I think we can be anywhere between 10-1 and 7-4, would be leaning towards 9-2, I think we're more than capable of getting that

 

[Kaiser Powser]

Unpopular opinion: Carlton are better than Collingwood at the moment. More to the point, they've got a nice run to build into the year, whereas Collingwood/Cats/Hawks are busy beating seven shades of s**t out of each other.

Carlton do look dangerous this year.

Although you are right, their draw is bullshit good. 8 day breaks for the first 4 weeks, yet come up against a team with a 5 day break. WTF? How is that remotely fair?

Although on viewing our first half, it is extremely favourable also. We have away games vs interstate basket cases and vic teams only. We should be very well placed mid year. Praying for a good run of injuries so we can have a good tougher second half.