Essendonia
Soldier of Fortune
- Aug 2, 2010
- 2,809
- 1,794
- AFL Club
- Essendon
Rd 3 v Gold Coast (Metricon) - This is clearly a winnable match. Despite the fact that the match is up at Metricon, we managed a couple of wins interstate last season, and should have the wood on GC with the 139-point victory. Key is starting strongly in the first quarter and simply winning each quarter after that.
Rd 4 v Carlton (MCG) - Assuming that we have 3 wins in the bank by this match, we should be pretty confident of making this match competitive. It appears as though - as much as I hate to say it - Carlton appear to be quite a good team this season. If they have Waite and Thornton, plus all of the mids in place, they are hard to beat. That said, if we play our own brand we can win; we should have them in the ruck and in the offensive 50, but Betts and Garlett always get in behind us far too easily. Can mark this down as a loss for now and the sake of this exercise.
Rd 5 v Collingwood (MCG) - After Carlton match, might be 3-1 or 4-0. Either way, as long as we put in a competitive display against the Blues, we should be right in this match as well. Obviously, this Collingwood team have been great over the past couple of years, but from what we've seen this year so far, they might be slipping. Or, they might be biding their time until September. We saw on the weekend how much damage they can do in 6 or 7 minutes, but a four-quarter effort would be required to compete and win here. These two matches will be a good test of our status in 2012. May depend on how much we can curb Thomas, Pendles and Cloke. Mark this as perhaps another close loss.
Rd 6 v Brisbane (Etihad) - Brisbane are Brisbane. You can never write them off completely, but they really are a developing or rebuilding side that relies too heavily on its old heroes, Black and Brown. Black may still be out for this match, and hopefully Brown doesn't succumb to another facial injury and will be on the park. Brisbane have some talent on their list, but we would like to think that we are ahead of them in building towards a flag. Apart from Brown, Brisbane lack significant forward options, and Crameri, Hurley and resting ruck might stretch them down back. I would back our mids to win that battle and put us back on track with a hard-fought win. 4-2.
Rd 7 v West Coast (Etihad) - We won this fixture in 2011, by a close margin, and it was probably essential to us 'playing' finals last year. WC are shaping up to be as strong as last year, if not stronger with the development of Kennedy and Darling. If we have improved, we must win this home fixture to consolidate ourselves. This might be the 12th or 13th straight win at Etihad too; it is good to be able to exert a home ground advantage, just as the interstate clubs do. By no means an easy game, but a mini-final in the sense that it shapes the year ahead. 5-2.
Rd 8 v Richmond (MCG) - Dreamtime. Have to win our respect back after losing last year by 9 points. That match derailed us mid-year in 2011; cannot afford to have it happen again. Richmond are an unknown quantity in 2012 after a strong pre-season, but current form does not promise much. They have improved, but so have we. Another must-win that is certainly within grasp. Richmond forwards are dysfunctional and mids inconsistent and unrealiable, coming in and out of matches (apart from Cotchin). 6-2.
Rd 9 v GWS (Skoda) - The first match against Sheeds. Before this, GWS play GC and Brisbane away, and might come back with a win from one of those games. Regardless of form for either side, we cannot afford to not take a percentage boost from this match. As has been seen, finals teams are notching up big wins against GC and GWS - we must do the same if we hope to get in the 8. 7-2.
Rd 10 v Melbourne (MCG) - Melbourne are a complete shambles. I would not be surprised if they find a way to win the spoon this year. They have some players, but are too soft, too young, lack leadership and won't be a force in 2012. They might have stabilised a bit in two months' time, but unless we are decimated by injury, I cannot see us losing this match. 8-2.
Rd 11 v Sydney (Etihad) - Those who remember this fixture late last season will recall how it came down to a kick from Goodes after the siren to seal the win. A hard-fought contest, we have developed a history of tight matches with Sydney. Early in 2011, we were perhaps robbed of a win up North by some unfortunate decisions, but ultimately, the scorecard shows that we are close to Sydney on numerous occasions. As this match is at Etihad, we need to win it. Shut down Goodes and we're halfway there. (Easier said than done.) 9-2.
From the above, we arrive at the Round 12 BYE with a record of 9 wins and 2 losses. Even if we accept a loss to West Coast at home in Rd 7, we would be sitting on 8-3, which is extremely healthy.
We know that the second half of the draw - particularly, the run home - will be quite difficult, so it is imperative that the Bombers develop or rediscover the culture to win the games we're expected to win (Melb, Rich), and also the 50-50 matches (WC, Syd).
I am glad that we have managed to notch two wins so far in matches that had potential to be losses. However, we need to start putting teams to the sword and burning them in the second half and aiming for solid wins on a consistent basis against the mediocre and mid-table teams; not scraping through. For example, we ran out the Port game in the end, but should not have let it get back to 2 points in the 3rd.
I am interested in other opinions on how we should end up at the BYE; I don't think that the win ratio set out above is fanciful or unrealistic...
Rd 4 v Carlton (MCG) - Assuming that we have 3 wins in the bank by this match, we should be pretty confident of making this match competitive. It appears as though - as much as I hate to say it - Carlton appear to be quite a good team this season. If they have Waite and Thornton, plus all of the mids in place, they are hard to beat. That said, if we play our own brand we can win; we should have them in the ruck and in the offensive 50, but Betts and Garlett always get in behind us far too easily. Can mark this down as a loss for now and the sake of this exercise.
Rd 5 v Collingwood (MCG) - After Carlton match, might be 3-1 or 4-0. Either way, as long as we put in a competitive display against the Blues, we should be right in this match as well. Obviously, this Collingwood team have been great over the past couple of years, but from what we've seen this year so far, they might be slipping. Or, they might be biding their time until September. We saw on the weekend how much damage they can do in 6 or 7 minutes, but a four-quarter effort would be required to compete and win here. These two matches will be a good test of our status in 2012. May depend on how much we can curb Thomas, Pendles and Cloke. Mark this as perhaps another close loss.
Rd 6 v Brisbane (Etihad) - Brisbane are Brisbane. You can never write them off completely, but they really are a developing or rebuilding side that relies too heavily on its old heroes, Black and Brown. Black may still be out for this match, and hopefully Brown doesn't succumb to another facial injury and will be on the park. Brisbane have some talent on their list, but we would like to think that we are ahead of them in building towards a flag. Apart from Brown, Brisbane lack significant forward options, and Crameri, Hurley and resting ruck might stretch them down back. I would back our mids to win that battle and put us back on track with a hard-fought win. 4-2.
Rd 7 v West Coast (Etihad) - We won this fixture in 2011, by a close margin, and it was probably essential to us 'playing' finals last year. WC are shaping up to be as strong as last year, if not stronger with the development of Kennedy and Darling. If we have improved, we must win this home fixture to consolidate ourselves. This might be the 12th or 13th straight win at Etihad too; it is good to be able to exert a home ground advantage, just as the interstate clubs do. By no means an easy game, but a mini-final in the sense that it shapes the year ahead. 5-2.
Rd 8 v Richmond (MCG) - Dreamtime. Have to win our respect back after losing last year by 9 points. That match derailed us mid-year in 2011; cannot afford to have it happen again. Richmond are an unknown quantity in 2012 after a strong pre-season, but current form does not promise much. They have improved, but so have we. Another must-win that is certainly within grasp. Richmond forwards are dysfunctional and mids inconsistent and unrealiable, coming in and out of matches (apart from Cotchin). 6-2.
Rd 9 v GWS (Skoda) - The first match against Sheeds. Before this, GWS play GC and Brisbane away, and might come back with a win from one of those games. Regardless of form for either side, we cannot afford to not take a percentage boost from this match. As has been seen, finals teams are notching up big wins against GC and GWS - we must do the same if we hope to get in the 8. 7-2.
Rd 10 v Melbourne (MCG) - Melbourne are a complete shambles. I would not be surprised if they find a way to win the spoon this year. They have some players, but are too soft, too young, lack leadership and won't be a force in 2012. They might have stabilised a bit in two months' time, but unless we are decimated by injury, I cannot see us losing this match. 8-2.
Rd 11 v Sydney (Etihad) - Those who remember this fixture late last season will recall how it came down to a kick from Goodes after the siren to seal the win. A hard-fought contest, we have developed a history of tight matches with Sydney. Early in 2011, we were perhaps robbed of a win up North by some unfortunate decisions, but ultimately, the scorecard shows that we are close to Sydney on numerous occasions. As this match is at Etihad, we need to win it. Shut down Goodes and we're halfway there. (Easier said than done.) 9-2.
From the above, we arrive at the Round 12 BYE with a record of 9 wins and 2 losses. Even if we accept a loss to West Coast at home in Rd 7, we would be sitting on 8-3, which is extremely healthy.
We know that the second half of the draw - particularly, the run home - will be quite difficult, so it is imperative that the Bombers develop or rediscover the culture to win the games we're expected to win (Melb, Rich), and also the 50-50 matches (WC, Syd).
I am glad that we have managed to notch two wins so far in matches that had potential to be losses. However, we need to start putting teams to the sword and burning them in the second half and aiming for solid wins on a consistent basis against the mediocre and mid-table teams; not scraping through. For example, we ran out the Port game in the end, but should not have let it get back to 2 points in the 3rd.
I am interested in other opinions on how we should end up at the BYE; I don't think that the win ratio set out above is fanciful or unrealistic...