Rack Watts
Here's MASON
I think we will be 7-4 at the bye.
Opinion Wins Before the Bye...
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Rack Watts
Here's MASON
I think that the West Coast vs Essendon game will tell us the story of our season ahead
Playing with the Bailey predictor ladder the Carlton v Essendon game has a big bearing on the season of both teams too.
I also think that West Coast can really only beat the bottom 6 away from Subi. I'd also back Geelong and Collingwood to beat them over there, probably Hawthorn too. The only top sides I see West Coast troubling is Carlton and Hawthorn and purely because of both sides having a dearth of KPDs. On the larger ground at Subi I think it creates more space for Hawthorn and Carlton who both relish that, Hawthorn to take advantage of their kicking skills and Carlton to use their pace and quick ball movement.
I expect Eagles, Freo and Carlton to go well but not sure how well. If there is no major injury curse I think it is pretty safe to assume that Geelong, Hawthorn and Collingwood will be the top 3.
The really tough thing about a long range prediction this year is that it is really difficult to get a good read on Essendon, Adelaide, Norf, Sydney and Saints. I think that Norf and Adelaide are the two weakest in that lot but both have 4 games against the expansion teams.
I also think that West Coast can really only beat the bottom 6 away from Subi. I'd also back Geelong and Collingwood to beat them over there, probably Hawthorn too. The only top sides I see West Coast troubling is Carlton and Hawthorn and purely because of both sides having a dearth of KPDs. On the larger ground at Subi I think it creates more space for Hawthorn and Carlton who both relish that, Hawthorn to take advantage of their kicking skills and Carlton to use their pace and quick ball movement.
I expect Eagles, Freo and Carlton to go well but not sure how well. If there is no major injury curse I think it is pretty safe to assume that Geelong, Hawthorn and Collingwood will be the top 3.
The really tough thing about a long range prediction this year is that it is really difficult to get a good read on Essendon, Adelaide, Norf, Sydney and Saints. I think that Norf and Adelaide are the two weakest in that lot but both have 4 games against the expansion teams.
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I think we'll beat Collingwood, I went to there game last week and they looked average, obviously have some key defensive outs and I think that will be key to beating them. Harry O'Brien has looked really susceptible when dragged back to the square in addition to the fact that Tarrant will miss, its going to come down to the Cloke match up and how well we can nullify Pendlebury.
what would dean bailey know about afl.
Just went through the ladder predictor thingummy... I've got Gold Coast getting off the mark before Melbourne... OK, it is against GWS, but still.
Carlton lose their first one in about round 11, Weagles sit 2nd at the turn - but both have a tougher run home - whereas the Cats, Hawks and Pies make up a fair amount of ground later on.
Final:
1 Cats 20 2
2 Weagles 19 3
3 Hawks 18 4
4 Blues 17 5
5 Pies 17 5
6 Ess 14 8
7 Swans 12 10
8 St Kilda 11 11
9 Port 11 11
10 Crows 10 12
11 Freo 10 12
12 North 9 13
13 Lions 9 13
14 Tigs 8 14
15 Dogs 6 16
16 Melb 5 17
17 GC 2 20
18 GWS 0 22
Now GWS will win a game or two, but fudged if I know who, and when.
Carlton lose their first one in about round 11, Weagles sit 2nd at the turn - but both have a tougher run home - whereas the Cats, Hawks and Pies make up a fair amount of ground later on.
Final:
1 Cats 20 2
2 Weagles 19 3
3 Hawks 18 4
4 Blues 17 5
5 Pies 17 5
6 Ess 14 8
7 Swans 12 10
8 St Kilda 11 11
9 Port 11 11
10 Crows 10 12
11 Freo 10 12
12 North 9 13
13 Lions 9 13
14 Tigs 8 14
15 Dogs 6 16
16 Melb 5 17
17 GC 2 20
18 GWS 0 22
Now GWS will win a game or two, but fudged if I know who, and when.
People are getting carried away with early form.
These teams have won twice:
West Coast: Bulldogs and Melbourne.
Carlton: Richmond and Brisbane.
Adelaide: GC and Bulldogs.
Sydney: GWS and Fremantle.
Essendon: North and Port.
North and Fremantle aside, you are talking about some of the worst teams in the competition there. Brisbane and Melbourne are awful: They have injury troubles and they weren't any good before that. Bulldogs were bad last year and have lost a few of their good players from that, and also have backline injuries. GC and GWS are free wins to any half decent side. Richmond is Richmond.
Carlton have been flat track bullies for a while. Adelaide struggled to beat Bulldogs at home. West Coast are doing as well as expected, even if it is with flair. Sydney had an extra week off before Fremantle - who were coming off Geelong and a big win and flying interstate (never their best fixture, that). We've just beaten North, who were missing Ziebell, and put away a Port side, at home, who were missing Gray and Butcher, and had Trengove playing his first for the year.
West Coast and Essendon should pick up another easy win. Adelaide's bubble will be burst you would think. Sydney has to win against Port, but won't show anything by doing so. Meanwhile Carlton and Collingwood might tell a story, but with their injuries at the moment I'm not sure it will mean all that much for the end of the year. Round three won't really harden any formlines - unless we have some shock losses.
My long range tips have gotten these wrong:
Melbourne over Brisbane (meaningless, as they're both shite)
Port over St. Kilda (maybe Port has improved, more like St. Kilda has dropped even harder / injuries and bad pre-season)
Dogs over Adelaide (Adelaide flying early season form, but a scratchy win over the Dogs at home is hardly a scalp)
Hawks over Geelong (was pretty much a coin toss / Osborne fumble in it)
Maybe by round 7-8 we will have enough information to look at things again and make some adjustments, but to date pretty much everything has been predictable or understandable.
These teams have won twice:
West Coast: Bulldogs and Melbourne.
Carlton: Richmond and Brisbane.
Adelaide: GC and Bulldogs.
Sydney: GWS and Fremantle.
Essendon: North and Port.
North and Fremantle aside, you are talking about some of the worst teams in the competition there. Brisbane and Melbourne are awful: They have injury troubles and they weren't any good before that. Bulldogs were bad last year and have lost a few of their good players from that, and also have backline injuries. GC and GWS are free wins to any half decent side. Richmond is Richmond.
Carlton have been flat track bullies for a while. Adelaide struggled to beat Bulldogs at home. West Coast are doing as well as expected, even if it is with flair. Sydney had an extra week off before Fremantle - who were coming off Geelong and a big win and flying interstate (never their best fixture, that). We've just beaten North, who were missing Ziebell, and put away a Port side, at home, who were missing Gray and Butcher, and had Trengove playing his first for the year.
West Coast and Essendon should pick up another easy win. Adelaide's bubble will be burst you would think. Sydney has to win against Port, but won't show anything by doing so. Meanwhile Carlton and Collingwood might tell a story, but with their injuries at the moment I'm not sure it will mean all that much for the end of the year. Round three won't really harden any formlines - unless we have some shock losses.
My long range tips have gotten these wrong:
Melbourne over Brisbane (meaningless, as they're both shite)
Port over St. Kilda (maybe Port has improved, more like St. Kilda has dropped even harder / injuries and bad pre-season)
Dogs over Adelaide (Adelaide flying early season form, but a scratchy win over the Dogs at home is hardly a scalp)
Hawks over Geelong (was pretty much a coin toss / Osborne fumble in it)
Maybe by round 7-8 we will have enough information to look at things again and make some adjustments, but to date pretty much everything has been predictable or understandable.
You have Geelong with far, far too many wins. They've already lost one and scraped through with another. To think that they will only drop one more for the year is too much in my view.
You are also giving Eagles way too much credit. Two easy wins against teams fighting to get out of the bottom three itsn't enough to win 19 games. They've lost Lecras, Nicoski, and Embley already (as well as Ebert). When they hit some tougher sides Hams and Masten will revert to their usual tricks.
Last year they only lost to Sydney at home, true. But they also won by less than 10 points on four occasions. And teams they beat easily at home were Richmond, Melbourne, Adelaide and Essendon.
The only wins they had against top 8 sides at home were:
Essendon (Watson KOed, Welsh injured, Crameri injured, Hurley not playing).
Carlton (36 points).
Geelong (8 points).
Carlton (3 points).
This year they have to play Collingwood, Hawthorn, Carlton, Geelong & Sydney at home, which is another thing all together. They also have to play a Fremantle side that may well have improved and always contests the derbys fiercely.
They they have to go interstate and play Collingwood & Hawthorn again, as well as Essendon.
If they only lose 3 for the years it'll be because they're going to win the GF.
Wins on the board is a very, very silly thing to ignore.
The 4 teams that had won twice in the first two weeks last year, finished 1st, 2nd, 4th & 5th.
The year before, the 6 finished 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 6th, 10th & 13th.
2009, the 4 finished 1st, 2nd, 3rd & 7th.
2008, the 4 finished 1st, 2nd, 3rd & 4th.
2007, 2nd, 3rd, 10th, 12th
2006, 1st, 8th, 10th.
2005, 2nd, 5th, 7th.
2004, 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 10th.
2003, 2nd, 3rd, 10th.
2002, 2nd, 3rd, 5th, 6th, 7th.
As for the Cats, I've given them the nod in just about all of their 50/50s; but they have at least another 14 "should win" games, and 1 in the bank.
Go through it week by week and you often end up with a very different picture to "hmm, that list looks like it's improved, that list is a bit old" - at least I did.
So far you've said I can't rate the sides with wins, or the sides without wins but a great past history... so who am I allowed to rate???
I think the most appropriate, succinct, and poignant response here is an old classic:
"no durr"
Wins on the board is a very, very silly thing to ignore.
The 4 teams that had won twice in the first two weeks last year, finished 1st, 2nd, 4th & 5th.
The year before, the 6 finished 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 6th, 10th & 13th.
2009, the 4 finished 1st, 2nd, 3rd & 7th.
2008, the 4 finished 1st, 2nd, 3rd & 4th.
2007, 2nd, 3rd, 10th, 12th
2006, 1st, 8th, 10th.
2005, 2nd, 5th, 7th.
2004, 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 10th.
2003, 2nd, 3rd, 10th.
2002, 2nd, 3rd, 5th, 6th, 7th.
As for the Cats, I've given them the nod in just about all of their 50/50s; but they have at least another 14 "should win" games, and 1 in the bank.
Go through it week by week and you often end up with a very different picture to "hmm, that list looks like it's improved, that list is a bit old" - at least I did.
So far you've said I can't rate the sides with wins, or the sides without wins but a great past history... so who am I allowed to rate???
You cant rate whomever you like. I'm just saying I think you've gone a bit hard on WC and Geelong
Not saying you should ignore wins on the board (Essendon should be odds on for the 8 now, if they weren't before), but there has to be some accounting for context. Especially when GC and GWS are involved.
I've done the whole season week by week BTW. I don't make ladder predictions on hunches - got to always look at the fixture.
Fact is, we need to win the bulk of our matches before the bye.
I think we'll be 7-4 which is the absolute worst we would want to be with our run home, assuming that 12 wins is the target for 8th spot.
You never bloody know with Richmond, while the West Coast and Sydney games are slightly in our favour because they're here, but still possible losses.
I think we'll be 7-4 which is the absolute worst we would want to be with our run home, assuming that 12 wins is the target for 8th spot.
You never bloody know with Richmond, while the West Coast and Sydney games are slightly in our favour because they're here, but still possible losses.
Absolutely.
Starting the season 3 wins 0 losses is a huge advantage. Already most of our supposed rivals for 8th spot (if you subscribe to the view that EFC is going to struggle to make the finals) will be 2 or 3 games behind us at the end of the round. We basically made finals last year on the back of strong early form.
Richmond for example already have 8 points to make up (will possibly have 12 by the end of the round) and the difference between them and us in 2011.
North is in the same boat. They will be 8 points down by the end of this round and will again have to make up the 8 points and our superiority from last year.
Last years form is important because Adelaide, Freo and St Kilda aside we can basically expect similar ouput from all the sides (with respective improvement and decline) and our draw this year is significantly easier.
Eleven-Zero.
simoro1
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Essendonia
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At this stage of the season, it is far too difficult to predict formlines of one club - let alone 18.
Would be happy with 8 wins, though expecting 9 by the BYE.
I think, as it presently stands, it is difficult to tip a lot of matches each round, as there are still a few unknown quantities going around - and each club seems to have its fair share of injuries too, just to complicate matters.
Do we think that the Bombers of 2012 are harder and more resilient psychologically? Will this translate into consistent competitive performances and will be play more 4-quarter effort matches this year, instead of fading in the last or starting slowly?
Would be happy with 8 wins, though expecting 9 by the BYE.
I think, as it presently stands, it is difficult to tip a lot of matches each round, as there are still a few unknown quantities going around - and each club seems to have its fair share of injuries too, just to complicate matters.
Do we think that the Bombers of 2012 are harder and more resilient psychologically? Will this translate into consistent competitive performances and will be play more 4-quarter effort matches this year, instead of fading in the last or starting slowly?
Essendonia
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After GC, unless we pull our finger out, it looks like we might hit our first hurdle on Saturday arvo.
On the flipside, Anzac Day is becoming an increasingly promising prospect...
On the flipside, Anzac Day is becoming an increasingly promising prospect...
Essendonia
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It was unfortunate to lose the Anzac clash, though I doubt many on this board would be unhappy with our current record in 2012. I think the squad - not just 22 - has performed admirably thus far.
This week's match against WC, and the status of injuries in the coming weeks, will, I believe, start to give us a solid idea of what to expect from the boys each week.
I was impressed with the Brisbane match, since we achieved the result with what was not four quarters of champagne football, and with a couple of best-22 players missing. The reality is that the line between certain starters and fringe players is becoming increasingly blurred, since each player coming IN seems to perform at least well enough to warrant a spot the next week.
Must be a great vibe around training at the moment.
In the coming weeks, we will recover a lot of the soft-tissue injuries, and hopefully build up a tonne of momentum to tackle the tough run-home.
I am confident that we can still hit 10-1 by mid-June.
This week's match against WC, and the status of injuries in the coming weeks, will, I believe, start to give us a solid idea of what to expect from the boys each week.
I was impressed with the Brisbane match, since we achieved the result with what was not four quarters of champagne football, and with a couple of best-22 players missing. The reality is that the line between certain starters and fringe players is becoming increasingly blurred, since each player coming IN seems to perform at least well enough to warrant a spot the next week.
Must be a great vibe around training at the moment.
In the coming weeks, we will recover a lot of the soft-tissue injuries, and hopefully build up a tonne of momentum to tackle the tough run-home.
I am confident that we can still hit 10-1 by mid-June.
Massive game this week. Whilst I'd obviously be ecstatic with 9-2 still, if we can knock off West Coast anything less than 10-1 would mean we've dropped a game that we shouldn't have (considering we'll get Sydney without Goodes). Richmond probably the other danger game.
HUUUUUUUUUUUUGE game this weekend, if we win against the Eagles you win almost think that we are a top-4 certainty (I am touching wood right now folks).
Please God. PLEASE let this happen...
Please God. PLEASE let this happen...
Ben the Gooner
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9-2 is the minimum pass mark from here you'd say.
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Looking at the bigger picture, 9-2 seems like an impressive result. However, looking at the games individually makes that prospect seem a little less impressive considering we probably should get up against the Eagles and win the rest comfortably, besides the Swans of course - but in saying that it is still a game we SHOULD win - being in Melbourne and Goodes missing.
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9-2, 8-3.. either way that will be a perfect set up to the second half of the season..
From where we have been for the last 10 years.. I just like the fact we can wait for the weekend a little bit confident that we have a shot of winning each and every contest we are in.. great vibe.
I wouldn't worry about who we have and haven't played because ultimately if we are good enough it won't matter. Yes the second half of the draw is tougher but Carlton, St K, Collingwood, Hawthorn and Geelong all have 'tougher' back halves so they won't be streaking ahead.
We still play Dogs, Port, North and Richmond after the break that you would expect to win. That makes it say 12 wins.. then you only need to snag probably 1 or 2 'upsets' and you are definitely top 6. Can't ask for better than that.
From where we have been for the last 10 years.. I just like the fact we can wait for the weekend a little bit confident that we have a shot of winning each and every contest we are in.. great vibe.
I wouldn't worry about who we have and haven't played because ultimately if we are good enough it won't matter. Yes the second half of the draw is tougher but Carlton, St K, Collingwood, Hawthorn and Geelong all have 'tougher' back halves so they won't be streaking ahead.
We still play Dogs, Port, North and Richmond after the break that you would expect to win. That makes it say 12 wins.. then you only need to snag probably 1 or 2 'upsets' and you are definitely top 6. Can't ask for better than that.
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I think we can go in 10-1 but could drop this week. Depends on our forward line. We all know that the Weagles are depleted. If we are too it is back on even terms and they probably have more KPF depth with Darling and Lynch still playing. As good as Le Cras and Nickoski (based on last year's form) are smaller players can be covered or their absence isn't as damaging to the structure.
I feel that we've had the better of Sydney on so many levels over the last few years at home, except that Goodes consistently has blinders and single handedly bridges the gap. Him being out makes me think we'll go in heavy favourite. Essendon better BURY Richmond and Melbourne or we'll never hear the end of it.
I feel that we've had the better of Sydney on so many levels over the last few years at home, except that Goodes consistently has blinders and single handedly bridges the gap. Him being out makes me think we'll go in heavy favourite. Essendon better BURY Richmond and Melbourne or we'll never hear the end of it.
