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NZ batting first s:
1u NZ over 275.5 runs @ $1.85
I think NZ are certainly capable of getting 300, especially batting first with less scoreboard pressure. They should certainly be targeting that to be competitive.
Still wondering what to do on the final. At the moment I can hedge out NZ and Starc for about a 4u net profit. But I'm tempted to hang on for the drama!!!
All the other markets I usually look at seem about right though. Although I do think NZ have the potential to hit 300 if they bat first and hold their nerve. It's interesting that SB have a Team Total market (regardless of innings batted) but TAB's market specifically says '1st Innings'. At the moment it's at 275.5 which is pretty tempting.
I did find this though.
2u Total Match 4s over 48.5 @ $1.72 (TAB)
I think the bookies have just pumped all the figures though their big averaging machine and churned out this number. If you look at averages then Australia are running at 28 4s (196 in 7 games) and NZ at 25 4s (205 in 8 games). But, NZ have batted 2nd 6/8 times and have chased 4 totals under 200, massively skewing the results.
If you look at the WC matches at the MCG, there have been 61, 46, 61 and 48 4s hit, so a small tendency toward the overs. Note that the 46 was Ind v SA where SA folded for 177, and the 48 was involving Bangladesh. Even so, the median 4s for a team is 30, pointing at 60 per game when two quality sides play.
The main risk here is that there is another freak game with a small 1st innings total, but I don't think that will happen tomorrow.
Losing McCullum has certainly hurt. I reckon they need to get over 260 for the 48 to come in.now gone down to
total match 4s over 45.5 @1.87 (SB)
decided to go on it now.
Both teams playing for the runners up trophy today
all over
Nah, MacCullum needed to get them off to a hot start to be any hope at all. As soon as he went, it was done and dusted.Gone very early with that call. The Aussies have the ability to choke early on too
Nah, MacCullum needed to get them off to a hot start to be any hope at all. As soon as he went, it was done and dusted.
AUS 10 overs >45.5 runs. Aussies to get off to a flyer and belt NZ into submission- $300
Whats everyones thoughts?
Was at $1.88 on SB. Line now up to 49.5!What odds?
Thoughts on MOTM at this stage????