Mega Thread Melbourne Cup Day 2015 * All betting discussion *

[Ari]

iluvparis and sethlad would love to hear who your best bets are for this year? I've really not been following it as I've been super busy with work. Have had a read through the thread but there's been a bit of movement! St George is a big out. If you've any tips, would love a PM or even post here if you get a minute!

 

[iluvparis]

Not super confident in much this year. My order of preference for the UK internationals at this stage would be:

Snow Sky
Max Dynamite
Bondi Beach
Sky Hunter
Secret Number
Trip To Paris
Quest For More
Kingfisher
Red Cadeaux
Big Orange

Some of these we'll get to see beforehand so not keen to go rushing in antepost. Whether any of them can beat the Japanese is another matter. I'd be really surprised if any of Trip to Paris down won. Kingfisher I've bolded as I'd love to see him have a run first. I think he is much better than his last couple of runs show - however at current odds he is easily the worst value of all the internationals.

For what it's worth Snow Sky and Max Dynamite are the two I took in long range doubles.

 

[sethlad]

This is what I posted a few weeks ago:

Sure,Ive backed Fame Game because he was always gunna get a weight that got him in.
Of Aidens Im on Bondi Beach,dont like his others,not sure its coming though.
Of the rest,had something on Max Dynamite but hes well found now & also Quest For More as he beat Max
recently & is 4x the price.

seth

 

[sethlad]

Dont mind Snow Sky at Caulfield but give it little hope at 2 miles,been wrong before though.
At least its having a run before Flemington,thats my issue with Bondi Beach

seth

 

[Ari]

Thanks guys!! Appreciate the tip.

I got a tidy win on Lowndes at the mountain so have a few bucks in my Sportsbet now for the ponys.

Cheers.

 

[Mobythepom]

Max Dynamite would be my UK number 1 as the horse appears to be well handicapped and is on an upward curve. If it's a fast pace and there's cut in the ground then all the better. If it's a sit and sprint race then I'm not sure he has the speed and Snow Sky (who needs the opposite conditions and pace) would have to come into calculations.
Willie Mullins does very well with his runners in the big races when he goes for a pot outside Ireland. He tends to be more selective than other trainers in his approach.

Tactics on the AOB horses will be interesting. His "history" in the race may mean he's reluctant to let Kingfisher bowl along in the lead but that one would need a real stamina test to show his best form.

Bondi Beach is an interesting horse. On his debut it was pretty clear that connections had piled the money on their other runner in the race who was backed into odds on and the jockey on Bondi Beach really didn't seem to want to win the race. Here's the Racing Post description......."no impression on leader entering final furlong, kept on well under hands and heels inside final furlong to lead final stride, not extended". Their excuse for what looked to me like a very soft ride on BB was that it needed to be put in front right on the line. This was on it's debut so that was rather and odd thing to assume.
They have recently been quoted as saying the horse loves a battle! Draw your own conclusions about that debut run......
What is clear is that they probably didn't know what they had on their hands and he has proven to be very useful. In every race he has run in, he has been involved in very narrow margins of victory or defeat implying that he does just about what is required to be in front, so it's possible that he could improve for tougher competition. Perhaps they were right first time and he needs to be delivered very late? Perhaps he just loves the company of another horse to run with.
He could very easily be well handicapped for the Cup.

Big Orange and Trip to Paris I don't see as being good enough and would rather have the race proven Red Cadeaux over both.
Quest for More needs to improve too and may just lack the class for this.

Of the Godolphin UK pair, Secret Number is going to need high attrition to get a berth, but Sky Hunter is interesting. Very lightly raced and well in at the weights he would have a chance, with a possible lack of stamina being the potential downside. If it's a Green Moon sort of renewal then he could go close.

 

[sethlad]

Ok,Lloyd has confirmed his MC jockeys:

Amralah is D Oliver
Bondi Beach is B Prebble
Kingfisher is C O'Donohue

seth

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

Ok,Lloyd has confirmed his MC jockeys:

Amralah is D Oliver
Bondi Beach is B Prebble
Kingfisher is C O'Donohue

seth

Ill be putting a line through Amralah.

Bondi Beach for me from #teamlloyd

 

[iluvparis]

My main concern with Bondi Beach is that he hasn't been able to beat any of the B-grade 3yos after the A-graders have moved on to take on the older horses. I know he heat Order of St George earlier in the season but the latter appears to have exploded since then and I doubt he'd get near him now.

Still Mahler ran a huge race off a similar profile in Efficient's year so every chance he can give a huge sight.

 

[Viva la Mattner]

Small segment on Get On tonight.
Must admit first footage I've seen of Max Dynamite from the snippet I saw VERY impressed

 

[sethlad]

Small segment on Get On tonight.
Must admit first footage I've seen of Max Dynamite from the snippet I saw VERY impressed

He will need a bit of give in the track to perform to his best.
Trainer is a gun & rates him above Simenon who got close.
Getting tarred with the jumper brush but was very handy 3yo in France before going to Mullins

seth

 

[TBellicious]

Small segment on Get On tonight.
Must admit first footage I've seen of Max Dynamite from the snippet I saw VERY impressed

Agree. Destroyed trip to Paris who we'll see tomorrow

 

[Viva la Mattner]

Trip to Paris' run in the CC confims Max Dynamite for me.
Do i take the 17's on offer??

 

[Jugada]

All over Fame Game after the CC

Going to be extremely hard to beat

 

[Jugada]

Quest For More seems a ridiculous price to me for a horse that has beat home Trip to Paris and Max Dynamite in his last 2 starts, both over 2 miles

 

[sethlad]

Quest For More seems a ridiculous price to me for a horse that has beat home Trip to Paris and Max Dynamite in his last 2 starts, both over 2 miles

Already backed him as above but how hes still upwards of $50 is amazing.Assuming punters think he wont get in the race.
Goes to Geel Cup Wed.

Must be doubts on a few from today,Rising Romance & Set Square must be unlikely.
Also Protectionist has lost a leg

seth

 

[FallingLiefs]

Loving Fame Game. He's on another planet with physical presence. Arguably form run of the race when you add an extra half mile on. The other one you'd want is Trip to Paris, was the sectional star but think FG had him by the eye test. Another factor is TTP was also very tight while FG had so much to come not to mention the brakes being applied all week (and race) from the connections. Pretty keen on FG out of that race.

Our Ivanhowe trimmed up much more than I had thought he had in him, will be interesting cup day.

Obviously we have to factor in the un-seen ones but I'm not sure they'll budge me this year.

Question though. What's the excuse of Preferment going the CP instead of CC? There's only two reasons that make sense in my head and I'm hoping it's not the "he's a stallion" approach. if he runs the MC he's still Australiasia's best seed IMO.

 

[KardiniaPark]

Already backed him as above but how hes still upwards of $50 is amazing.Assuming punters think he wont get in the race.
Goes to Geel Cup Wed.

Must be doubts on a few from today,Rising Romance & Set Square must be unlikely.
Also Protectionist has lost a leg

seth

I think Protectionist will run a big race. He's been set for the cup according to the owner and he wasn't keen on his chances today. I've had a couple of big doubles with Protectionist/Max Dynamite into Highland Reel in the Cox but with the feedback I'll throw on Quest/Highland Reel as well.

 

[sethlad]

I think Protectionist will run a big race. He's been set for the cup according to the owner and he wasn't keen on his chances today. I've had a couple of big doubles with Protectionist/Max Dynamite into Hoghland Reel in the Cox but with the feedback I'll throw on Quest/Highland Reel as well.

Hes a weird one,take out his MC win & on form you couldnt back him in a MV 3000m race.
Loomed up today with Ivanhoe then basically dropped out

seth

 

[KardiniaPark]

Hes a weird one,take out his MC win & on form you couldnt back him in a MV 3000m race.
Loomed up today with Ivanhoe then basically dropped out

seth

Yep he did that's why I didn't mind the run. They were just too quick for him today. You also can't just take out his Melb Cup win haha that was huge. At $50 or better it's not going to hurt having a few each way just in case he does find that again.

 

[FallingLiefs]

I'd have no problem if Protectionist ran last struggling to get in the race. But when he's getting put in to the race and fading he's a no go.

 

[KardiniaPark]

I'd have no problem if Protectionist ran last struggling to get in the race. But when he's getting put in to the race and fading he's a no go.

Different eyes see different things I guess. But yeah if you purely looked at that run asking can he win? Probably not. I was just pleased he put himself in the race, it didn't bother me too much what happened after that.

 

[FallingLiefs]

Different eyes see different things I guess. But yeah if you purely looked at that run asking can he win? Probably not. I was just pleased he put himself in the race, it didn't bother me too much what happened after that.

Last week was more worrying for me. Inconclusive today Avdulla at his wtf worst although still just 2-3L off where I'd want him today.

 

[KardiniaPark]

Last week was more worrying for me. Inconclusive today Avdulla at his wtf worst although still just 2-3L off where I'd want him today.

Fair enough. The Cup looks full of chances it should be a great race. I may be barracking harder than I should because of how much I have going and backing him last year but I'm not screwing up the tickets just yet.

Also it's a stupid call to say he's set for the race, there's 490 horses set for the race. Including Uncle Buck Morganashlee

 

[Morganashlee]

Fair enough. The Cup looks full of chances it should be a great race. I may be barracking harder than I should because of how much I have going and backing him last year but I'm not screwing up the tickets just yet.

Also it's a stupid call to say he's set for the race, there's 490 horses set for the race. Including Uncle Buck Morganashlee

Will benefit from the step up in distance from 2000m, proven stayer so I think he is a chance.

Now GAGF.