Have compiled a mock draft which may be somewhat similar to TOA’s which isn’t all that surprising as we have talked a bit to each other about the upcoming draft. Just want to add, that I apologise in advance for using predominantly West Coast players for player comparisons, but obviously they’re the players I have seen more of. Will add more picks to it once the final draft order is known.
Round One:
1. Carlton – Bryce Gibbs
I don’t think there’s ever been a more hyped player pre-draft, and for the most part, the hype is justified. Poise, class, footy smarts and exceptional skill by foot who can get his own ball, but opts not to on most occasions as to utilize he exquisite foot skills. He is able to find space, not though speed, but through his footy smarts, however there may be a query at AFL level whether to become an elite midfielder genuine pace is needed, and he doesn’t possess genuine pace. Most likely of the draftees to play 200+ games, but I’m not sure he has as much potential to improve as others in the draft. Should go pick #1.
2. Essendon – Lachlan Hansen
Very versatile tall, who can play forward or back or even have stints in the middle as he is pretty quick and mobile for his size and is one of the best marks to come through the draft in recent years. Also has courage in spades and though able to play the role of a rebounding defender can play a tight negating role also. Could go anywhere between 2-5, but Dodoro is real keen on him apparently and is exactly what Essendon are looking for. Selwood, Gumbleton and Leuenberger all a genuine chance to go at #4.
3. Kangas – Scott Gumbleton
Genuine key forward who will straighten the kangaroos up. Has excellent hands, phenomenal work-rate and is just a natural forward. Can play CHF or FF and is an excellent contested mark. However with the game being played at an ever increasing speed, a slowish key forward that relies on contested marking will become increasingly less effective as the game evolves. I imagine he’ll still become a very good player, but his lack of speed will prevent him from becoming a superstar of the competition. Sellar and Leuenberger a chance here too.
4. Brisbane – Mitchell Thorp
Rumours are this bloke could be the slider this year, but I just can’t see it to be honest. He has had OP and I don’t think he participated in some of the DC tests, but his upside is huge, he could be anything. Probably hasn’t played his best footy due to OP, but he has all the attributes to become a superstar. Good size, excellent mark, versatile, amazing skills, mobile and quick for his size as well as a very good ability to read the play. Brisbane’s pick is probably the toughest of the top 10, Leuenberger real chance to go here.
5. Port – Leroy Jetta
Incredible talent, but another one who suffered from OP. Probably has the best combination of pace, evasiveness and mobility of anyone to come through the draft in the last 5 years or so. There are question marks over his ability to play midfield, but I see very little to suggest he can’t play there full-time. Maybe a lack of accountability and defensive pressure could be argued, but if he works on that aspect of his game, he’ll become an elite midfielder. Despite his size he can get his own ball, however because he looks flashy his hardball gets tend to go a little unnoticed. I’d be careful about picking him this early though as he strikes me as someone who may well end up homesick. I’d say Port would be tossing up between Sellar and Jetta if the draft pans out this way.
6. Hawthorn – Matthew Leuenberger
Hawks will be licking their lips if Leuenberger drops this far. Very promising Ruck prospect that will be exactly what Hawthorn will be after. Very mobile and quick for his size, also has very good skills for someone of 200+cms. His ruckwork is very good, especially considering he’s a recent basketball convert. Absolute steal at #6, given he wasn’t far off going at #1. Given the way Cox has revolutionized the ruck position, clubs will be on the lookout for a Cox protégé, and Hawthorn may well acquire one in Leuenberger, although he’ll have a ********load of development before he reaches Cox’s standard, he’s got all the right attributes.
7. Geelong – Travis Boak
Classy outside midfielder with pace, excellent skills who loves a goal. Fits Geelong’s needs to a tee. Had a shocking run with injuries (stress fractures in his back I believe), but will be a first round selection regardless. Despite his injury trouble he has shown on occasions this year that he has genuine match winning ability. If Geelong opt not to pick him up, Collingwood or St Kilda would be more than happy to.
8: Collingwood - James Sellar
Been saying all year he won’t slide, but I may have been underestimating the impact of his sub-par champs. No doubt he’s an absolute steal at #8, and would have been genuinely considered at #3 and #5. He isn’t an undersized ruckman like many seem to think; he’s an ideal size for holding down a KPP spot. He has played a lot at CHF, but I think he’d make a fine CHB should Collingwood choose to develop him in that role. Prior to his illness he was rated as the number 1 pick, and it’s easy to see why. Excellent speed and mobility for his height, queries such as fitness and intensity have been raised since his illness, but they were strengths of his prior to his illness. Talent-wise he’s as good as Hansen and Gumbleton and if not for his illness would have been taken above them in the draft IMO.
9: St. Kilda – Joel Selwood
Outstanding leader and as well credentialed a junior as there is, however I’m not 100% sold on him. His vertical leap result at DC suggest he is over his knee injury which is a positive, however his 20m time suggests he’s lost pace due to his knee injury, which is a worry, given he wasn’t initially quick. Despite being not quick and having average disposal, he isn’t a pure inside midfielder. However, he is a natural leader and a very smart player and has an amazing work-rate. This allows him to rack up the pill. Personally with the direction the game is going, I wouldn’t use an early pick on a player who doesn’t possess very good skills and/or genuine pace, although I can see why clubs would make an exception in Selwood’s case as despite not being a pure inside midfielder he has the ability to bring others into the game.
10: Collingwood - David Armitage
If Collingwood pick Sellar at #8, they will definitely pick a midfielder at #10, probably an inside mid, given Egan, Thomas and Pendlebury have been drafted in recent times. Armitage is one of the better inside mids going around. He’s hard at the footy, very courageous, with a very good work-rate. Being genuinely considered at #4 demonstrates what a quality player he is. Tested very well at DC, which will ensure he is a top 10 pick. Is a midfielder atm, but is versatile and could easily play as a small defender or even as a small forward. If they go a midfielder at #8, then Riewoldt, McKenzie, N. Brown and Reid would all be options as well as O’Keefe, Edwards and Connors.
11: Western Bulldogs - Eric McKenzie
The Bulldogs are one of the few teams that strictly adhere to the ‘best available’ policy so many teams claim to adhere to and as such may go small here. However, with the combination of having traded their second round pick, and the quality of tall available at #11 could easily see them go tall. Nothing wrong with their forward line given they were one of, if not, the highest scoring teams in 2006, but their defense was the worst of any of the top 8 teams IIRC and is what prevented them from being a genuine premiership contender last year IMO. Key forwards tended to kick bags against the Doggies and a genuine CHB would be ideal to complement the Dogs’ undersized defense. McKenzie could round one next year if need be. Has excellent skills which you do not normally associate with key defenders, his mobility and pace are good also as well as his excellent endurance and reads the play well, so he is rarely beaten on the lead, and is also excellent in one-on-one situations. My only concern over McKenzie as a defender is that he doesn’t run off his opponent as much as I would like someone of his attributes to. He has excellent skills, good pace, great endurance and reads the play well, these attributes should culminate in him running off and setting up play off HB, which he rarely does as I feel he is too conscious of his man, even when his team have the ball. Still if he can be taught how to do this, he’ll be an AA CHB IMO.
12: Melbourne - Ben Reid
In recent times Melbourne have tended to go either with inside midfielders or bottom-age KPP with their early picks, and I feel with what’s on offer in the draft this year, and the current state of their list, they will go with the latter. He is very bottom age and is rather skinny, but has shown he has the right physique and dedication to put on weight (was skinny as a rake at the start of the season, but has put on 8-10 kilos during the year). And in putting on this extra weight has appeared to have not lost any speed or agility that is very promising. Probably isn’t a natural KPP, even with his added weight, he seems to me to be more of a quick agile flanker with very good hands, similar to Brent Staker.
13: Richmond - Daniel O’Keefe
Richmond is another team hard to predict what they will do. O’Keefe has been linked there and he’s the type of player they’d be very keen on. Good pace, excellent endurance, good height for a midfielder and very good skills. Would have tested very well at DC I imagine, but injury prevented that. He’s also quite versatile in that he can play forward, back or midfield. Richmond could however go with a number of players at #13, Riewoldt, Hislop, Benjamin, Djerkurra, Edwards and Morton would all be considered I imagine.
14. Adelaide – Jack Riewoldt
Perhaps a debatable choice this high, but has been linked as a possible pick #8, so despite my misgivings about him, it appears recruiters rate him. He does read the play well, is versatile and is a very good mark, but he seems to come in and out of games, which I feel may be due to a lack of endurance, or it could be that he is a confidence player. His biggest worry is his lack of speed, and he may get found out at AFL level in this regard. He is a very good kick of the footy and doesn’t hesitate in backing back into packs. Some say he may not become a genuine KPP, and I’m not sure if he will or won’t, but Adelaide aren’t opposed to taking ‘3rd tall’ flanker types. Guys like Allen, Tippett, Reid, N. Brown, Renouf and Garland could be considered here.
15. Sydney – Nathan Krakouer
Initially I thought Sydney would have to take a tall, especially given they traded their 2nd round pick for Spider, but there are strong rumours they are set on Krakouer. Sydney does have an abundance of inside midfielders, so they may well be looking for a classy outside midfielder with genuine pace, good skills, who likes to carry the footy. Clinton Benjamin has been linked here too along with Tippett, Austin and N. Brown.
16. West Coast – Nathan Brown
West Coast’s delistings/trading of talls like McDougall, Gaspar, Gardiner and Smith means they will be going tall predominantly in the draft. Not necessarily with #16, but if N. Brown is available they may well take him. Nathan is a versatile tall who could play anywhere down the spine, but has the perfect combination of attributes to become a very good FB. Has the size, speed and hates being beaten. Brown could easily go well before this pick, but often key defenders tend to slide a bit.
Priority Selections:
17. Carlton – Broc O’Brien
Physical rebounding small defender. Has excellent hands and is very good in the air and rarely gets beaten 1 on 1. Is pretty quick also, and reads the play very well. Also rarely makes a wrong decision, which is crucial when playing as a defender. Given his attributes a club could easily decide to play him as a midfielder, as he definitely has the capacity to do so (although not sure about his aerobic fitness). It’s imperative that Carlton acquire at least one possibly two inside midfielders as they have a lot of quality outside midfielders, but no one to really get the ball to them.
18. Essendon – Bachar Houli
On talent alone, would no doubt be a top 10 selection. Has had a shocking run with injuries, but his talent is too great to see him slide far into the 2nd round. Physically mature midfielder, who can play inside and outside. Has amazing foot skills, and is capable of getting forward and kicking goals and also a great mark for his size. However can at times look lazy and disinterested. Tested very well at DC, although I think his stress fractures in his back may have caused him to loose mobility and pace (not that he’s slow or anything, just that it’s not as great as prior to his injury, although it could be attributed to the time spent in the gym as a result of his injury, rather than the injury itself). If he stays fit, he is a bargain at #18.
Round One:
1. Carlton – Bryce Gibbs
I don’t think there’s ever been a more hyped player pre-draft, and for the most part, the hype is justified. Poise, class, footy smarts and exceptional skill by foot who can get his own ball, but opts not to on most occasions as to utilize he exquisite foot skills. He is able to find space, not though speed, but through his footy smarts, however there may be a query at AFL level whether to become an elite midfielder genuine pace is needed, and he doesn’t possess genuine pace. Most likely of the draftees to play 200+ games, but I’m not sure he has as much potential to improve as others in the draft. Should go pick #1.
2. Essendon – Lachlan Hansen
Very versatile tall, who can play forward or back or even have stints in the middle as he is pretty quick and mobile for his size and is one of the best marks to come through the draft in recent years. Also has courage in spades and though able to play the role of a rebounding defender can play a tight negating role also. Could go anywhere between 2-5, but Dodoro is real keen on him apparently and is exactly what Essendon are looking for. Selwood, Gumbleton and Leuenberger all a genuine chance to go at #4.
3. Kangas – Scott Gumbleton
Genuine key forward who will straighten the kangaroos up. Has excellent hands, phenomenal work-rate and is just a natural forward. Can play CHF or FF and is an excellent contested mark. However with the game being played at an ever increasing speed, a slowish key forward that relies on contested marking will become increasingly less effective as the game evolves. I imagine he’ll still become a very good player, but his lack of speed will prevent him from becoming a superstar of the competition. Sellar and Leuenberger a chance here too.
4. Brisbane – Mitchell Thorp
Rumours are this bloke could be the slider this year, but I just can’t see it to be honest. He has had OP and I don’t think he participated in some of the DC tests, but his upside is huge, he could be anything. Probably hasn’t played his best footy due to OP, but he has all the attributes to become a superstar. Good size, excellent mark, versatile, amazing skills, mobile and quick for his size as well as a very good ability to read the play. Brisbane’s pick is probably the toughest of the top 10, Leuenberger real chance to go here.
5. Port – Leroy Jetta
Incredible talent, but another one who suffered from OP. Probably has the best combination of pace, evasiveness and mobility of anyone to come through the draft in the last 5 years or so. There are question marks over his ability to play midfield, but I see very little to suggest he can’t play there full-time. Maybe a lack of accountability and defensive pressure could be argued, but if he works on that aspect of his game, he’ll become an elite midfielder. Despite his size he can get his own ball, however because he looks flashy his hardball gets tend to go a little unnoticed. I’d be careful about picking him this early though as he strikes me as someone who may well end up homesick. I’d say Port would be tossing up between Sellar and Jetta if the draft pans out this way.
6. Hawthorn – Matthew Leuenberger
Hawks will be licking their lips if Leuenberger drops this far. Very promising Ruck prospect that will be exactly what Hawthorn will be after. Very mobile and quick for his size, also has very good skills for someone of 200+cms. His ruckwork is very good, especially considering he’s a recent basketball convert. Absolute steal at #6, given he wasn’t far off going at #1. Given the way Cox has revolutionized the ruck position, clubs will be on the lookout for a Cox protégé, and Hawthorn may well acquire one in Leuenberger, although he’ll have a ********load of development before he reaches Cox’s standard, he’s got all the right attributes.
7. Geelong – Travis Boak
Classy outside midfielder with pace, excellent skills who loves a goal. Fits Geelong’s needs to a tee. Had a shocking run with injuries (stress fractures in his back I believe), but will be a first round selection regardless. Despite his injury trouble he has shown on occasions this year that he has genuine match winning ability. If Geelong opt not to pick him up, Collingwood or St Kilda would be more than happy to.
8: Collingwood - James Sellar
Been saying all year he won’t slide, but I may have been underestimating the impact of his sub-par champs. No doubt he’s an absolute steal at #8, and would have been genuinely considered at #3 and #5. He isn’t an undersized ruckman like many seem to think; he’s an ideal size for holding down a KPP spot. He has played a lot at CHF, but I think he’d make a fine CHB should Collingwood choose to develop him in that role. Prior to his illness he was rated as the number 1 pick, and it’s easy to see why. Excellent speed and mobility for his height, queries such as fitness and intensity have been raised since his illness, but they were strengths of his prior to his illness. Talent-wise he’s as good as Hansen and Gumbleton and if not for his illness would have been taken above them in the draft IMO.
9: St. Kilda – Joel Selwood
Outstanding leader and as well credentialed a junior as there is, however I’m not 100% sold on him. His vertical leap result at DC suggest he is over his knee injury which is a positive, however his 20m time suggests he’s lost pace due to his knee injury, which is a worry, given he wasn’t initially quick. Despite being not quick and having average disposal, he isn’t a pure inside midfielder. However, he is a natural leader and a very smart player and has an amazing work-rate. This allows him to rack up the pill. Personally with the direction the game is going, I wouldn’t use an early pick on a player who doesn’t possess very good skills and/or genuine pace, although I can see why clubs would make an exception in Selwood’s case as despite not being a pure inside midfielder he has the ability to bring others into the game.
10: Collingwood - David Armitage
If Collingwood pick Sellar at #8, they will definitely pick a midfielder at #10, probably an inside mid, given Egan, Thomas and Pendlebury have been drafted in recent times. Armitage is one of the better inside mids going around. He’s hard at the footy, very courageous, with a very good work-rate. Being genuinely considered at #4 demonstrates what a quality player he is. Tested very well at DC, which will ensure he is a top 10 pick. Is a midfielder atm, but is versatile and could easily play as a small defender or even as a small forward. If they go a midfielder at #8, then Riewoldt, McKenzie, N. Brown and Reid would all be options as well as O’Keefe, Edwards and Connors.
11: Western Bulldogs - Eric McKenzie
The Bulldogs are one of the few teams that strictly adhere to the ‘best available’ policy so many teams claim to adhere to and as such may go small here. However, with the combination of having traded their second round pick, and the quality of tall available at #11 could easily see them go tall. Nothing wrong with their forward line given they were one of, if not, the highest scoring teams in 2006, but their defense was the worst of any of the top 8 teams IIRC and is what prevented them from being a genuine premiership contender last year IMO. Key forwards tended to kick bags against the Doggies and a genuine CHB would be ideal to complement the Dogs’ undersized defense. McKenzie could round one next year if need be. Has excellent skills which you do not normally associate with key defenders, his mobility and pace are good also as well as his excellent endurance and reads the play well, so he is rarely beaten on the lead, and is also excellent in one-on-one situations. My only concern over McKenzie as a defender is that he doesn’t run off his opponent as much as I would like someone of his attributes to. He has excellent skills, good pace, great endurance and reads the play well, these attributes should culminate in him running off and setting up play off HB, which he rarely does as I feel he is too conscious of his man, even when his team have the ball. Still if he can be taught how to do this, he’ll be an AA CHB IMO.
12: Melbourne - Ben Reid
In recent times Melbourne have tended to go either with inside midfielders or bottom-age KPP with their early picks, and I feel with what’s on offer in the draft this year, and the current state of their list, they will go with the latter. He is very bottom age and is rather skinny, but has shown he has the right physique and dedication to put on weight (was skinny as a rake at the start of the season, but has put on 8-10 kilos during the year). And in putting on this extra weight has appeared to have not lost any speed or agility that is very promising. Probably isn’t a natural KPP, even with his added weight, he seems to me to be more of a quick agile flanker with very good hands, similar to Brent Staker.
13: Richmond - Daniel O’Keefe
Richmond is another team hard to predict what they will do. O’Keefe has been linked there and he’s the type of player they’d be very keen on. Good pace, excellent endurance, good height for a midfielder and very good skills. Would have tested very well at DC I imagine, but injury prevented that. He’s also quite versatile in that he can play forward, back or midfield. Richmond could however go with a number of players at #13, Riewoldt, Hislop, Benjamin, Djerkurra, Edwards and Morton would all be considered I imagine.
14. Adelaide – Jack Riewoldt
Perhaps a debatable choice this high, but has been linked as a possible pick #8, so despite my misgivings about him, it appears recruiters rate him. He does read the play well, is versatile and is a very good mark, but he seems to come in and out of games, which I feel may be due to a lack of endurance, or it could be that he is a confidence player. His biggest worry is his lack of speed, and he may get found out at AFL level in this regard. He is a very good kick of the footy and doesn’t hesitate in backing back into packs. Some say he may not become a genuine KPP, and I’m not sure if he will or won’t, but Adelaide aren’t opposed to taking ‘3rd tall’ flanker types. Guys like Allen, Tippett, Reid, N. Brown, Renouf and Garland could be considered here.
15. Sydney – Nathan Krakouer
Initially I thought Sydney would have to take a tall, especially given they traded their 2nd round pick for Spider, but there are strong rumours they are set on Krakouer. Sydney does have an abundance of inside midfielders, so they may well be looking for a classy outside midfielder with genuine pace, good skills, who likes to carry the footy. Clinton Benjamin has been linked here too along with Tippett, Austin and N. Brown.
16. West Coast – Nathan Brown
West Coast’s delistings/trading of talls like McDougall, Gaspar, Gardiner and Smith means they will be going tall predominantly in the draft. Not necessarily with #16, but if N. Brown is available they may well take him. Nathan is a versatile tall who could play anywhere down the spine, but has the perfect combination of attributes to become a very good FB. Has the size, speed and hates being beaten. Brown could easily go well before this pick, but often key defenders tend to slide a bit.
Priority Selections:
17. Carlton – Broc O’Brien
Physical rebounding small defender. Has excellent hands and is very good in the air and rarely gets beaten 1 on 1. Is pretty quick also, and reads the play very well. Also rarely makes a wrong decision, which is crucial when playing as a defender. Given his attributes a club could easily decide to play him as a midfielder, as he definitely has the capacity to do so (although not sure about his aerobic fitness). It’s imperative that Carlton acquire at least one possibly two inside midfielders as they have a lot of quality outside midfielders, but no one to really get the ball to them.
18. Essendon – Bachar Houli
On talent alone, would no doubt be a top 10 selection. Has had a shocking run with injuries, but his talent is too great to see him slide far into the 2nd round. Physically mature midfielder, who can play inside and outside. Has amazing foot skills, and is capable of getting forward and kicking goals and also a great mark for his size. However can at times look lazy and disinterested. Tested very well at DC, although I think his stress fractures in his back may have caused him to loose mobility and pace (not that he’s slow or anything, just that it’s not as great as prior to his injury, although it could be attributed to the time spent in the gym as a result of his injury, rather than the injury itself). If he stays fit, he is a bargain at #18.
