Preview Round 6: Essendon v Brisbane Lions

Date:

Saturday, 5 May 2012

Time:

1.40pm local time

Venue:

Etihad Stadium

Ticket Info:

Here

TV and Radio Coverage:

All areas: Live on FoxFooty from 1.30pm
Queensland: Live on 7mate from 1.30pm

Social Media:

TBA

Last time they met:

Essendon by 36 points (Round 8, 2011)

Betting Odds

Essendon $1.19; Brisbane $5.25

Weather Report

Min 11 Max 17 Shower or two.

Preview by blynd_freddie

"The time has come," the Walrus said,
"To talk of many things:
Of shoes--and ships--and sealing-wax--
Of cabbages--and kings--
And why the sea is boiling hot--
And whether pigs have wings."



Ripper - I thought early on the scoreboard didn't do our efforts justice, but then the sodas at the tail end of the game probably flattered us a little, so, I guess it evened itself out overall. *shrugs*

Oh, and footy smarts and footy skills are still desperately needed. Anyone got any they don't want?


Kerry OT - Our boys always seem under pressure and seem to fail at executing under pressure, especially in comparison to younger fellas coming through at other clubs.

“Everybody’s lookin’ for the answers
And how the story started and how it will end
What's the use in half a story, half a dream
You have to climb all the steps in between, yeah we ride

I said, everybody, everybody's lookin' for the ladder
Everybody wants salvation of the soul
The steps you take are no easy road it's not that easy
The reward is great for those who want to go, I do”

Audio - The Ladder, Prince:


Deciphering the stats and other stories of fantasy…




Ladders: At the time of writing [Sunday am] we were 1st for clearances, 3rd for contested possessions and 3rd in tackles – in the league! In round 4 against GCS I also note that we had a club record of 430 disposals but before you jump in with your - 'yeah but what are we doing with them?' - May I volley back the old cliché that if you’ve got the ball, the opposition cannot score? *meh*

Arguable, neither a snake or ladder? - Our average ‘FOR’ points scored is 73.8 [10.4 less than the 2011 season average] and the average against is currently 82.45pts – although we are still ‘in the red’ the difference between 2011 [101.8] and this years average against, an ‘improvement’ of almost 46.3%.

Snakes: We are Numero Uno for CLANGERS averaging 53 per game – by comparison, West Coast [after 4 rounds] had the least recorded of only 35 per game. I had also noted that at the conclusion of round 4 we had the 4th lowest return scoring from opposition turnovers – [only 17% of our score had came from opposition turnovers] Not really that surprising as only GCS, Melb & GWS got the ball
inside 50 less than the Lions.



Players Used


Interesting/sad? To read that statistically - 50% of the ‘top eight’ finalsiren.com lists the top 20 players from the last five games (between the Lions & Bombers), are no longer playing at the lions… Jonathan Brown, Jared Brennan, Michael Rischitelli, Luke Power, Simon Black, Daniel Rich, Jobe Watson, Mitchell Clark, Brent Stanton, Cale Hooker, Cheynee Stiller, Jack Redden, Josh Drummond, Jed Adcock, Justin Sherman, Patrick Ryder, Leroy Jetta, Mark McVeigh, Courtenay Dempsey & David Myers.

Adding to this the knowledge, even with the bombers long list of injuries to their 2012 playing list – they have been a ‘more stable’ team than that of the Lions. Essendon have so far used 29 players this season compared to the Lions who, still seem to be searching for the right balance having selected 31 players in the 5 rounds this year and it would not surprise me to see a couple more 2012 debutants in Green, Zorko and even Lisle named in the not to distant future.



There were a total of 15 player changes from Rnd8-2011 to last weeks Rnd5-2012 teams.

Possible changes - line ups/match ups?

I’m of the opinion that the MRP’s reading of the game will have Raines staying in Brisbane which would allow Cheynee Stiller – to come in for his 100th game and mostly get the run with job on Stanton - the lesser likely scenario might be the recall of Polkinghorne, of course there is the outside chance that Crisp may get the job but that would be as likely as Voss getting a no confidence vote by the board – surely they would wait to see if both Hird and Buckley out coach him over the next fortnight? [sorry, just checking to see if you are still reading… or am I?]

I also think Mckeever will gain a recall at the expense of Matt Maguire – I think his perceived lack of pace might be an issue on the hard, dry [gotta luv a roof] and fast track of the docklands. Niall may also be required to have a couple of stints through the ruck when resting Hudson. I think Niall’s pace puts him ahead of Billy Longer or Jordon Lisle. I also think the club will continue to manage Billy’s year slowly and use him sparingly after his unplanned almost full game after Leuey’s injury.

I also think young Josh Green may have earned a selection opportunity with some fine ressie form over the last couple of weeks. Some might think Todd Banfield could be due for a spell in the twos but his 'almost invisible non stats' - of chasing, pressure and opposition awareness might just see him stay - I think Sheldon is more likely to be omitted.
A surprise selection?? Might there be an outside chance of the inclusion of mature aged rookie Dayne Zorko? Maybe... but I feel match fitness after his one and only recent game one game in the seconds last weekend would not earn him any more than the super sub kermit role… [I think it is more wishful thinking than common sense on my part]

BRISBANE
IN: Stiller [for his 100th game], Mckeever, Polkinghorne/Green/Zorko?
OUT: Raines, Maguire, Lester, Sheldon/Banfield?

ESSENDON
IN: Dempsey, Colyer
OUT: Hibberd [right hammy], Dell'Ollio
[still question marks on the fitness of others?]

I don’t know if Drummond was subbed for a tweak or just precautionary but I would have Lester holding his spot if Drummo is unfit. With the bombers I think Hurley and Myers might be rested for one more week.



Conclusions?

Turn-overs – must be the catch phrase for 2012 – and pressure in your forward half is the best way to lock the ball in for another shot at goal – a turn-over in the back fifty and a swift ball movement through the now almost vacant centre corridor will almost certainly apply the best pressure of all… scoreboard pressure! Are you cringing yet… but wait there’s more… both clubs in recent weeks – Essendon with costly 3rd quarter ANZAC Day shockers and our habitual any quarter any game – but think Carlton if you really want the nail driven home…

Almost over… only one more blatant cliché to go….
So, finally in conclusion – How To Pick The Winner? Think of this as a football-frustrated mans variation on the reading the tea leaves… Blindfolded, I whack a paper mache [those really frustrated you may use a clay pot] piñata numerous times, then removing the blindfold… there lays the result amongst the scattered chocolates and boiled lollies.
Come on it’s not that hard to see is it? The confectionary mess on the floor is literally screaming out that the result is somewhere between… our thrashing of the GCS by 65pts [they were only able to sneak past them by 17] and the Carlton result where they won and we…. Actually, I’ll step out on a limb here or roll the dice with as much optimism as those following a one of Grim’s $1.01 bets and suggest that the team that makes the least mistakes will win!

Speaking of Grim… any update on this? Or will freddie have to walk around the docklands in search of a prayer room?

The bombers by somewhere between 5 & 10 goals unless young Jared Polec and a couple of his mates have ‘one out of the box’… I’ll be heading along there just in case they do! Go Lions!!!

Thanks to blynd freddie for what may well be his most lucid preview yet! I was surprised!

POBT said:

I was surprised!

Click to expand...

You're not the only one!

But on a serious note love your work B_F!! Did enjoy that one (not that I don't usually of course ).

Think this one is beyond us tbh. Just hoping for a bit more composure and class this week. Noone can say "just want to see us put in and contest" anymore surely... we do that most weeks these days, it's that little bit of class that is lacking.

At least it will be dry this week. I'll be amazed if we win but happy if we stay within 20 points. Bombers should be too quick for us. Carn Lions!!!!

We played quite scrappily, early on, in this match last year, and still won pretty comfortably, kicking away. And it was at the GABBA, rather than our home track. I feel we still have the advantage in skill & class, and - if Dempsey returns - will have the pace, too. Brisbane have improved across a lot of areas, but I don't feel the execution has gotten any better.

From last year, our side will have
Out:
definitely - Hurley (he played CHB), Hibberd (and he's been great this year), Hille (FF/ruck), NLM (bitsa), McVeigh (who went on-ball), Reimers (who kicked 2).
Maybe Myers (was almost BOG off a back flank) and maybe Colyer - both are "due" to return.
In will be
definitely - Pears (CHB), Dempsey (hopefully), Carlisle (CHF), Stanton, Davey
Dyson probably holds his spot, and Dell'Olio probably holds his spot.

Thanks B_F. A great read. An evidence based football preview, what will they think of next!

I am back to evidence based tipping this week. Essendon by 47 points.

POBT said:

...may well be his most lucid preview yet!

Click to expand...

Jorgo said:

You're not the only one!

Click to expand...

Pfttt... tell 'em they're dreaming!

knaf said:

An evidence based football preview, what will they think of next!

Click to expand...

"I see said the blynd man as he picked up his hammer and saw"

Onya Freddie!

Great read. It's like an eclair - sugary toffee covering a rich, sweet liquid centre. Top work.

Love your front 6 too, along with Green as an in. Would like to see it.

Why on earth did I choose this game to travel down for? Long weekend in Qld (labour day)! Can't wait.

Not expecting to win but will be well pleased if we're competitive, particularly given we're up against a team coming off a 9 day break. Would be a top Saturday arvo.

good preview

Having seen the preseason match up close I have a fair bit of confidence in our match-ups, although Hurley will be missing, who kicked 5.

I loved the look of Longer in that match, and think he has a very bright future.

Great preview again freddie, standard from all previewers has been very high, making me a little nervous.

As for the game I do think that they will be a bit too good for us especially given the slogfest we had in the wet this week. We won't be exactly running on top of the ground by the end of the game. Can see a few changes being made to keep us fresh.

Think Green would definitely be a chance to come in this week to give us that bit of extra pace up forward and in the middle. Seems to have been played more in that role in reserves the last few weeks so this may be the game they were planning for.

Really think we need a better second ruck option this week. I would imagine Saturdays game was pretty tolling on Hudson, I think he will need better backup especially against the two dons ruckman. Unfortunately I think Maguire is the man that will have to be sacrificed for this match with Merrett going back. Have been a fan of Maguires start to the season but this is the perfect case of changes for the sake of team balance.

Stiller definitely in I think and can't say I'm disappointed to see it, think he's one of those players that will never be a superstar but always does the job he is set. Would be good to see him get to his 100 games.

Will be interesting to see if Beams is fit for this one as he may come in instead, but think he lacks the running power of Stanton. However he does pose more hurt factor going the other way.

I think overall its a really important match for us. We need to give ourselves every chance of pulling off an upset to ensure that we continue to improve. It won't be so much about the magnitude of a loss but more the nature of it.

Agree with posts in other threads that disposal is the last thing that clicks in a game plan. West Coast in 2009 and 2010 were one of the worst teams for clangers in the AFL however their contested footy and clearance stats were about mid to top 1/3rd of the table.

We are sitting top for clearances and second for contested possessions however we are a mile in front for clangers and low on the table for disposal efficiency. Whether we can improve on these last two will dictate how well we go in this game. We are going fine in the middle it's what we're doing with it that's hurting us.

Unfortunately I think this will be a source of pain as the season goes on, we will have to wait and see whether like West Coast disposal was the last piece of the puzzle to click.

For mine I think Essendon will probably get up by about 4-5 goals.

I think Drummond is one of the keys to this match. In perfect conditions, indoors if the Lions can take full advantage of his kicking they'll go a long way to winning. I think the Lions need to slow the game down and make it low scoring. Brown is the key. If he kicks 5, the Lions will win IMO.

Some interesting stats from this match:

Possessions:

Brisbane 14th
Essendon 15th

Contested Possessions:

Brisbane - 3rd
Essendon - 4th

Uncontested Possessions

Essendon - 15th
Brisbane - 16th

Tackles

Brisbane - eq 2nd
Essendon - 7th

Not much to split these sides in this respect. And yet, one side is finals bound and has 4 wins while the other is going to finish in the bottom half and has 2 wins.

It has to be put down to how the respective teams use the footy. As freddie says, our error rate is league worst - when you consider that the two unbeaten sides have the lowest clanger rate in the comp, it is somewhat indicative.

The stats also illustrate to me that disposal efficiency is the dumbest stat there is. Brisbane is 15th and Essendon 14th on this stat. But you can't tell me that this accurately reflects the way that each team plays.

Going to my first game at Etihad, just wondering where the best seats are for being around other Lions fans?

Essendon + [strike]Colonial[/strike] [strike]Telstra[/strike] Ethiad Stadium = Loss for Brisbane

POBT said:

The stats also illustrate to me that disposal efficiency is the dumbest stat there is. Brisbane is 15th and Essendon 14th on this stat. But you can't tell me that this accurately reflects the way that each team plays.

Click to expand...

Can't agree more. It isn't measured properly. If for example a player correctly centres the ball into the hot spot most coaches would consider it a good kick. However, if the opposition defence manages to out number your forwards and one of them take the mark that kick counts against your efficiency.

Also a high level of contested disposals means that your efficiency is down too. A flying hand ball or snap over the shoulder could go anywhere and they too count against your efficiency if they fall into opposition hands.

I saw the second half of the practice match between our sides at Princess Park. What stuck out to me is that Essendon absolutely squeezed the life out of Brisbane, I wonder if everyone will start to complain about Hird like they do Lyon!!

To my surprise Essendon didn't play like that in the first three games. However, it was clear that against Carlton and Collingwood they were once again attempting to squeeze the life out of the opposition. A ripper game by both Pendlebury and Swan stopped that from winning the bombers both games.

To do this anaconda style game Essendon starts with a 5 man forward line and a loose man in the backline. As soon as the ball is bounced the loose man pushes up to the midfield and they have an extra man around the ball. Our half forwards push up very high, though most/all teams do that now. This creates a lot of congestion around the ball which plays into the hands of our strong but slow on ball players. This also leaves a fair bit of space on the spread that our quickish flankers and pockets can break into.

The idea behind scoring when conceding an opposition loose man in our forward line is that we can break and run and carry past opposition half back line allowing better delivery to forwards, though our kicking inside 50 has been pretty crap this year. Essendon is also happy to push the ball forward with stoppages and then kick wide into the forward line and set up a press.

With your contested ball winning over the season so far who knows you guys could do better than you expect.

Can you guys fill me in on what is happening with Docherty. Has he been injured or just finding his feet at present. Cheers

jackess said:

I think Drummond is one of the keys to this match. In perfect conditions, indoors if the Lions can take full advantage of his kicking they'll go a long way to winning. I think the Lions need to slow the game down and make it low scoring. Brown is the key. If he kicks 5, the Lions will win IMO.

Click to expand...

I agree with you that if Brown kicks 5 we look good for a win,but not if we are just gonna bomb it on his head which seems to be the our usual inside 50 tactic. Our midfielders have to,have to,have to lower their eyes and try to hit leading targets. On Drummond, the only issue I have with Drummond sometimes is that he sometimes takes too long to decide where he is going to kick and halts any momentum we have. Just needs to keep it moving more often.

Kernafides said:

Can you guys fill me in on what is happening with Docherty. Has he been injured or just finding his feet at present. Cheers

Click to expand...

Has been recovering from off-season hip surgery. Played his first game in the ressies on Sunday and went pretty well considering his long layoff.

Thanks TBD

POBT said:

Some interesting stats from this match:

Possessions:

Brisbane 14th
Essendon 15th

Contested Possessions:

Brisbane - 3rd
Essendon - 4th

Uncontested Possessions

Essendon - 15th
Brisbane - 16th

Tackles

Brisbane - eq 2nd
Essendon - 7th

Not much to split these sides in this respect. And yet, one side is finals bound and has 4 wins while the other is going to finish in the bottom half and has 2 wins.

It has to be put down to how the respective teams use the footy. As freddie says, our error rate is league worst - when you consider that the two unbeaten sides have the lowest clanger rate in the comp, it is somewhat indicative.

The stats also illustrate to me that disposal efficiency is the dumbest stat there is. Brisbane is 15th and Essendon 14th on this stat. But you can't tell me that this accurately reflects the way that each team plays.

Click to expand...

Yeah, went off them years ago... but still recall using these to pump up the 'Fors' of one Troy Selwood many moons ago.


Having said that still a nice set of [up to date] stats linking to the closeness of the two clubs POBT…

Not sure how left of centre this is but it’s a little something I’ve just set up to track where the clubs might be ranked using who and how their opponents have been playing.

In simple terms I list who the club has played, their current wins/losses and ladder position.

By totalling up all columns – W/L/Lad Pos and using the simple formula of dividing the wins by losses and then multiplying the result by current ladder position.

Eg: BNE
Played W-L-Lad/Pos
MEL – 0 – 5 – 16
CAR – 4 – 1 – 03
FRE – 3 – 2 – 09
GCS – 0 – 5 – 17
GEE – 3 – 2 – 08

Therefore 10/15*53 = a rank of 35.3




And looksy-look Essendon and Brisbane are sitting/ranked 13th and 14th – humm… certainly puts an interesting spin on where we and a couple of the other clubs sit – might have to track this and report back a little deeper into the season.

EXCELent work Freddie.

fishardansin said:

I saw the second half of the practice match between our sides at Princess Park. What stuck out to me is that Essendon absolutely squeezed the life out of Brisbane, I wonder if everyone will start to complain about Hird like they do Lyon!!

To my surprise Essendon didn't play like that in the first three games. However, it was clear that against Carlton and Collingwood they were once again attempting to squeeze the life out of the opposition. A ripper game by both Pendlebury and Swan stopped that from winning the bombers both games.

To do this anaconda style game Essendon starts with a 5 man forward line and a loose man in the backline. As soon as the ball is bounced the loose man pushes up to the midfield and they have an extra man around the ball. Our half forwards push up very high, though most/all teams do that now. This creates a lot of congestion around the ball which plays into the hands of our strong but slow on ball players. This also leaves a fair bit of space on the spread that our quickish flankers and pockets can break into.

The idea behind scoring when conceding an opposition loose man in our forward line is that we can break and run and carry past opposition half back line allowing better delivery to forwards, though our kicking inside 50 has been pretty crap this year. Essendon is also happy to push the ball forward with stoppages and then kick wide into the forward line and set up a press.

With your contested ball winning over the season so far who knows you guys could do better than you expect.

Click to expand...

Yeah - Lions also held carlton to a goalless 2nd half in another praccy match - they really are a bit like the previously mentioned DE% don't you think?

Thanks also for your other points will keep an eye out for your loose man spreading etc... you really don't get a clear indication of these sort of things from the box and I have yet to see you guys live.

TheBrownDog said:

EXCELent work Freddie.

Click to expand...

How dumb am I [rhetorical!]- easier for me to do this than using