2013 Potential Draftee and Trade Watch
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Are we happy to class Jake Kolodjashnij as the tall key defender?
I'd hate for you to be homeless.
What's your take on the draft mate?
Pivo
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Not really sure what to make of it to be honest.
I think we got the "type" of players we needed but I'm not sure I'm completely sold on the "actual" players.
I certainly don't mind Lang (I was one of the few who picked him in the main board comp) but I'll admit to thinking we might have reached a bit for him (I've pretty much convinced myself that is due to us having such a large gap to our next selection and probably didn't think he'd still be around at #36).
Obviously, I was a fan of Acres and Dunstan and to have by-passed them will mean (like Grundy V Thurlow last year) I'll follow their careers and plot it against Lang.
But I do think Lang will work out, it just won't be immediate which will no doubt cause consternation on this board.
Jansen - never noticed him so I can't comment. Read his bio and I can see why we took him but Giles was still on offer (again, some bias as I liked him) and I think Giles is more suited to what we need than Kolodjashnij. Also, Riley Knight went at #46 and I think Knight and Jansen share some characteritics so we could have still got that "type" at 41 if we wanted...heck, Jansen may very well have still been available.
Kolodjashnij - it'll be fun listening to commentators trying to pronounce his name.
While I said above I think Giles would have been a better pick, like Lang, I don't really have much issue with Kolodjashnij. He just isn't tall enough though and I'm of the opinion these types of players can be pretty readily found every year. Like Jansen, I've just not seen him other than highlights so I can't really say much more.Mainly I think this highlights why I was so keen to find another pick in the low 20s and why I think we should have tried a little harder to get a higher pick off Brisbane for West.
Look at the guys who went in that 18-22 range; Dunstan, Acres, Leslie, Impey & Gardiner (extend it to 23 and Matt Crouch is there). I look at Travis Varcoe and wonder what might have been if we'd been bolder.
Look who went at Brisbane's #34 - Nick Robertson.
This year it might not be who we got so much as who we might have landed if we'd been brave/harder at the trade table.
Not really sure what to make of it to be honest.
I think we got the "type" of players we needed but I'm not sure I'm completely sold on the "actual" players.
I certainly don't mind Lang (I was one of the few who picked him in the main board comp) but I'll admit to thinking we might have reached a bit for him (I've pretty much convinced myself that is due to us having such a large gap to our next selection and probably didn't think he'd still be around at #36).
Obviously, I was a fan of Acres and Dunstan and to have by-passed them will mean (like Grundy V Thurlow last year) I'll follow their careers and plot it against Lang.
But I do think Lang will work out, it just won't be immediate which will no doubt cause consternation on this board.
Jansen - never noticed him so I can't comment. Read his bio and I can see why we took him but Giles was still on offer (again, some bias as I liked him) and I think Giles is more suited to what we need than Kolodjashnij. Also, Riley Knight went at #46 and I think Knight and Jansen share some characteritics so we could have still got that "type" at 41 if we wanted...heck, Jansen may very well have still been available.
Kolodjashnij - it'll be fun listening to commentators trying to pronounce his name.
Mainly I think this highlights why I was so keen to find another pick in the low 20s and why I think we should have tried a little harder to get a higher pick off Brisbane for West.
Look at the guys who went in that 18-22 range; Dunstan, Acres, Leslie, Impey & Gardiner (extend it to 23 and Matt Crouch is there). I look at Travis Varcoe and wonder what might have been if we'd been bolder.
Look who went at Brisbane's #34 - Nick Robertson.
This year it might not be who we got so much as who we might have landed if we'd been brave/harder at the trade table.
You pretty much echo my own views. I reckon we have picked up a player in Lang but wonder whether we could have missed an opportunity with Acres or Dunstan or..But that's what Wells is paid for.
Missing Robertson hurts a bit. I'm not convinced by Jansen. He was clearly well down the pecking order of inside mids in this draft. I wonder whether we would have been best using this pick on another type of player altogether?
Happy with Jake. I think he might end up being the most inspired pick of the three in time.
In the end I reckon you are right about our position being largely determined by our actions during the trade week. Rather than wondering what might have been with a Varcoe trade, I'm more pissed again about the West trade - if we had gone a touch harder we would have been able to take Robertson. In the end, ironically, Brisbane take him and screw us over again!
Jon Douglas
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Remember if we did not find a home for West he would still be on our list and we would still not had the pick to get Robertson and we would have missed out on our third pick - Jake - someone you are happy with.
We had HMac, Simpson, Blicavs and Vardy on the list - so need to keep West - and we desperately needed 3 picks. We could not play hard ball and demand a better pick for him even if you believe he was worth more. So to get anything for him was really a bonus and it saves some cash as well.
If Jake turns out to be a good player then you look back and say that the trade of West to the Lions was a sensational trade for us and we found West a home and we owed him that. Yes we would always like to get higher draft picks for our players but sometimes necessity requires we do a trade for less.
What I have learned from the previous draft is you do not want just two picks and upgrade a Rookie. You need 3 live picks at the ND unless you have traded for a really good player.
Jon Douglas
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As far as Varcoe goes we do not know the real story. Was he really up for trade ? If so what interest did he inspire - what pick could have they got if they did have a suitor ?
So cannot really say too much without knowing the facts. Perhaps they did offer him and no one wanted him - cannot blame Geelong then for not trading him then to get the picks you would have liked.
When the next book comes out on GFC we may know more.
So cannot really say too much without knowing the facts. Perhaps they did offer him and no one wanted him - cannot blame Geelong then for not trading him then to get the picks you would have liked.
When the next book comes out on GFC we may know more.
The rabbi
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And that is the question that I have posed a number of times. The only suggestion that I have seen for this is on the BigFooty Forum. Not exactly what I would call a credible source.
Pivo
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For the point of discussion, does it matter if it is credible or not?
Varcoe was, as far as I'm concerned, one of the few, expendable players we had on the list who had some currency. I know it isn't fashionable to say so but Varcoe has been pretty underwhelming for the majority of his career (and has suffered enough injuries to be classified as "injury prone").
Could he burn us if he was traded out, sure. He is talented and that is why, despite his career, he would still command a decent selection.
As good as Wells has been, I don't think we can keep expecting him to constantly pluck very good footballers from pretty ordinary positions in the draft. That just isn't going to be sustainable. The laws of probability are stacked against him and all clubs spend enough money these days to ensure a very small percentage of kids slip through the cracks.
And, while I hate to call him out (since he is better than most), he does have his share of misses over the journey; Street, Bray, Tenace, Spriggs, Foster, Owen, Gardiner, Simpson. McKenna e al.
That shows how tricky it can be once you get outside the top 20 or 30.
Brown still isn't established after 6 years (and still has his share of doubters). Hambling doesn't look like playing senior footy any time soon and Menzel has been destroyed by injury and probably will never reach his potential because of it. Smedts still looks like he thinks he is playing U/18s...Stringer, Schroder, Cowan also have questions over them.
Varcoe could have landed us a pick around the 20 mark.
Is that undervalued? Maybe, but clubs are pretty savvy these days. Gone are the days of clubs handing over decent picks for players passed their used by date.
I honestly believe that Acres and Dunstan will carve out better careers than Varcoe will when all hang up their boots (and that doesn't mean I wish Varcoe ill or anything, I truly hope he burns next year and makes me eat my words). Part of me wonders if we, as a club, have the gumption to make these types of calls though.
Players wanted FA. As such, clubs need to forget about "loyalty" or "looking after players" as it is clear players want a say in their own future. As such, clubs should also look out for themselves.
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Pivo
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Who??Would Jarmen Impey have a better career though?
To add further to my little rant, I'm not stating we should have had Acres or Dunstan instead of Lang (or Grundy rather than Thurlow).
Instead I'm thinking, why couldn't we have Acres AND Lang or Grundy AND Thurlow.
If we don't want to tank (which we don't want) then we'll have to use the assets we have if we want to move up the order to get access to these types of players.
The Pivotonian
I do thin our approach has been a little conservative and that come from the loyalty to players have supplied success. But the comments post trade time from Balme indicated an adjustment is coming.
But are "WE" , the footyheads , the followers of the club ready for what that means. Im not sure Im ready for the type of movement we see in other sports. Maybe I and other will have to get used to it.
An Ablett type trade that we instigate? Get two kids for an established star? Would we have traded Motlop for 2 good picks. Perhaps its the way of the future. NBA type stuff. As you said the players wanted it and who knows what it will be like in 10 years. FA after 5 years?
On Wells performance. Sometimes I think drafting success almost ensures drafting failure. With 40 plus players on a list , and only 22 spots , if a side becomes established it makes it very hard for some players to break in to it. A success rate of 50% may be as you can get on games played.
I do thin our approach has been a little conservative and that come from the loyalty to players have supplied success. But the comments post trade time from Balme indicated an adjustment is coming.
But are "WE" , the footyheads , the followers of the club ready for what that means. Im not sure Im ready for the type of movement we see in other sports. Maybe I and other will have to get used to it.
An Ablett type trade that we instigate? Get two kids for an established star? Would we have traded Motlop for 2 good picks. Perhaps its the way of the future. NBA type stuff. As you said the players wanted it and who knows what it will be like in 10 years. FA after 5 years?
On Wells performance. Sometimes I think drafting success almost ensures drafting failure. With 40 plus players on a list , and only 22 spots , if a side becomes established it makes it very hard for some players to break in to it. A success rate of 50% may be as you can get on games played.
Megaman123
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Who??
To add further to my little rant, I'm not stating we should have had Acres or Dunstan instead of Lang (or Grundy rather than Thurlow).
Instead I'm thinking, why couldn't we have Acres AND Lang or Grundy AND Thurlow.
If we don't want to tank (which we don't want) then we'll have to use the assets we have if we want to move up the order to get access to these types of players.
Last year, keep 36 instead of Hmac. Grundy at 16, Thurlow at 36. This year, push harder for a pick around 28 from lions for West (41 seems soft to me) and take Acres at 16, Lang at 28. I live in fantasy world and this is how things happened in my dream
Im glad you know it a bit of a fantasy , one can never really know what happens if you try being too smart when picking players , all you can do is pick a player at a time cause just like this year , you may find the player you want ..gone by your next pick.
We couch experts that question Wells judgement really are all living in a fantasy world
Pivo
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Turbs, I might be very wrong but I suspect you and I are of the same vintage.
Like you, I grew up in an era where, for the most part, loyality existed and players liked the idea of being "1 club men".
However, the field has radically changed from those days (remember, those were also the days where players held jobs and happily drank during the week). We're already getting a glimpse into that;
- Ablett, a guy who is synonymous with Geelong, is likely to play out his days on the Gold Coast. I think the club did a lot of things for Ablett, they shielded him from the media when he was starting out, they tried to look after his brother and they played a big part in developing him into a player widely considered the best in the competition (perhaps of his generation).
- Hawthorn have had to deal with Franklin, a pretty well established "party-boy" (I suspect there is plenty of off-field stuff we don't know about) who, by the sounds of it, made an approach to Sydney after Hawthorn lost to them in a GF.
- Thomas basically sits out the year and then goes running back to Malthouse.
- Gold Coast and GWS watch high draft picks Caddy and Adams leave after 2 years. Melbourne wave goodbye to their #1 draft selection Tom Scully after a very brief stint in the Blue and Red. The Brisbane Lions witness a mass exodous of young talent who seek returns back to their home states...
I suspect this is just the start. More and more we'll see players exercise their options and be more aggressive in controlling their careers. Roughead, when asked about Franklin leaving, said that was pretty much the way footy was headed, it is business, not sport.
I read with interest that GWS may have taken more players this year (when the conventional wisdom was they didn't need to) to bolster their ability to trade in coming years. Suddenly, it becomes more obvious why they took Cameron McCarthy to add to their already overflowing forward stocks (get set for Patton to be discussed as trade bait next year or McCarthy's name to be floated at the end of '15 for a return back to the West).
I reckon clubs will need to become more and more proactive over the coming years. Why sit on a player and then watch him leave for stuff all compensation during free-agency after you poured money and time into him?
It doesn't have to be an annual thing, just like FA doesn't need to be an annual event. But if you're a club that doesn't slide down the table (which Geelong prides itself on) then we'll need to find other ways to access top-end talent.
Without slagging off a kid who hasn't yet played, who would you have preferred based on what you saw this year? Jansen or Acres/Dunstan/Crouch (forget that Wells & Team see many, many more hours than any of us, just go with your opinion).
As a supporter who grew up in a different era I might not like the idea of trading out a guy like Varcoe but I think the old days are fast slipping away. Do we cling to it and risk being overtaken by more proactive clubs (or clubs who can afford to offload talent, i.e. St. Kilda) or do we look over the list and consider who has currency but is also fairly easy to replace (both short and long term).
I think we could have covered a possible lost of Varcoe (both with existing players and draftees). Funnily enough, I think Varcoe was more expendable than West.
Personal bias would kick in , I probably would gone Acres or Dunstan with R1 and look to balance with R2. It would depend on the confidence of getting the player we want for p36. If I rated JJ as high as the Cats...Acres.
But your point is no that its trading to get another early pick.I like theory but have we really seen that another pick in the 20's being that much better? There was a stats on one of these thread recently about success post 20's. 25 was not really much better than 40. If we can trade into R1 , then OK. Varcoe and player/pick for something in the top 15 ... Id strongly consider.
But even though we didn't draft one player I hoped... I dont get the one eye, post draft slag off at Wells when his record of being right is so good. More often than not he has picked the better player , doesn't mean he is right 100% but he more right than me. I mean have you seen that picture of the three draftees? Arhhhhh JJ is a goliath , he is taller than the kid JK and he is KPP. In our system who knows what we end up with.
Im hopeful we will still end up with 3 good chances of 100 game players
Pivo
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Hmmm, let me see. Ah, here is one at #24 in 2001 - Steve Johnson
The bagging of Wells is out-of-order. I do agree on that front. There are a number of posters who seem to think they have a better handle on juniors than Wells and his team.
I hope like hell I don't come across that way when posting about kids. I would be mortified if I did.
However, there is also a band of supporters who believes Wells never, ever gets it wrong. That isn't exactly true either.
I'm a firm believer that drafting has become much more accurate year-on-year and, as such, your chances of hitting a very good 200+ player is enhanced the higher up the order you are selecting from.
Does it always play out that way? No, it doesn't. We've seen that in Spriggs, Bray and Tenace to name but 3. And yes, there are always diamonds in the rough (Enright, Egan, Stokes).
But, logically, it must be harder to find those gems deeper into the draft.
I'm flogging a dead horse here a bit, I know that. But a draft return of Lang, Acres/Dunstan & Jansen/Kolodjashnij looks a lot better to me than Lang, Jansen & Kolodjashnij.
Obviously I'm not one to wish ill on our players and I'll be cheering on all 3 of our newbies next year. Considering the distinct lack of top end talent it is remarkable we have been at the pointy end for as long as we have.
And perhaps that is the lesson to take away here.
Joel Tippett as a possible rookie pick anyone?
Hmmm, let me see. Ah, here is one at #24 in 2001 - Steve Johnson
Actually its a good example. SJ at 24 and who was 23 in one of the best drafts of all time?
Charlie Gardiner. Over a certain draft pick there is minimal difference in the long run. Short term like this year , Im sure both of us would have preferred an extra pick in that top 25 , long term we still may be in front.
Looking at the photo of our newbies , i think we are yet to ensure a player taller enough to cover a KPD.
So if the decide to go with Sully or Tippet or Beard or Fort or Toohey or whoever I would understand it. Really like Leslie , gone but.
This kid sounds Ok as well. Heard the name before but have not seen him
Cain Tickner
D.O.B: 17.4.1995
Height: 194cm
Weight: 90kg
Position: Key Defender/Forward
Plays Like: Lachie Henderson
Cain Tickner has had a big turnaround in the past 12 months. The Brisbane Lions Academy member who was overlooked at the National Draft ran into a wall of injuries towards the end of last season which interrupted his preseason, and then suffered knee tendinitis and an ankle injury that threatened to derail his final season of junior football. However, the AFL-AIS Member was incredibly diligent in his rehab, strength and conditioning and made a professional return impressing for Queensland at the National Championships. Tickner has a fantastic size that is ready for AFL football; however where he is best played still remains largely unknown. Utilized both in defence and in attack, Rutledge has rare game sense, and is a brilliant key forward who takes strong contested marks, leads incredibly well and kicks goals from all over the ground. However, in defence – his athleticism, body positioning and strength means that he can shut down forwards with ease. Tickner has really grown into the modern day big man, who is capable of turning games, or on the contrary – saving them. Ticker thrives for a contest, and relishes the opportunity to play a physical and combative style of play that makes him equally courageous as it does reckless. Tickner also displays a rare ability to play through the midfield, where his big engine means he can cover the ground well, and mark easily above the opposition. With a brilliant field kick and elite hands, Tickner is clean below his knees and is deceptively quick, and offers plenty of x-factor given how difficult he is to match up on. Although a natural forward, a likely career as a key position defender looms large.
http://www.scpaige.com.au/preseason-and-rookie-draft-guide-the-prospects/
Looking at the photo of our newbies , i think we are yet to ensure a player taller enough to cover a KPD.
So if the decide to go with Sully or Tippet or Beard or Fort or Toohey or whoever I would understand it. Really like Leslie , gone but.
This kid sounds Ok as well. Heard the name before but have not seen him
Cain Tickner
Club: Aspley
D.O.B: 17.4.1995
Height: 194cm
Weight: 90kg
Position: Key Defender/Forward
Plays Like: Lachie Henderson
Cain Tickner has had a big turnaround in the past 12 months. The Brisbane Lions Academy member who was overlooked at the National Draft ran into a wall of injuries towards the end of last season which interrupted his preseason, and then suffered knee tendinitis and an ankle injury that threatened to derail his final season of junior football. However, the AFL-AIS Member was incredibly diligent in his rehab, strength and conditioning and made a professional return impressing for Queensland at the National Championships. Tickner has a fantastic size that is ready for AFL football; however where he is best played still remains largely unknown. Utilized both in defence and in attack, Rutledge has rare game sense, and is a brilliant key forward who takes strong contested marks, leads incredibly well and kicks goals from all over the ground. However, in defence – his athleticism, body positioning and strength means that he can shut down forwards with ease. Tickner has really grown into the modern day big man, who is capable of turning games, or on the contrary – saving them. Ticker thrives for a contest, and relishes the opportunity to play a physical and combative style of play that makes him equally courageous as it does reckless. Tickner also displays a rare ability to play through the midfield, where his big engine means he can cover the ground well, and mark easily above the opposition. With a brilliant field kick and elite hands, Tickner is clean below his knees and is deceptively quick, and offers plenty of x-factor given how difficult he is to match up on. Although a natural forward, a likely career as a key position defender looms large.
http://www.scpaige.com.au/preseason-and-rookie-draft-guide-the-prospects/
Very disappointed this kid was not taken by the Lions through their Academy. He starred as a bottom ager for Qld last year and was rated to be a 2nd rounder this year. Unfortunately was hit with injuries (not soft tissue) missed most of the preseason and has gone unnoticed this year. An AIS Graduate, very professional, I am bewildered as to how this kid has not been given more notice. He is big, strong, fast, good below his knees and can play as either CHF or CHB equally well. Probably also the best tackler in this years draft. Would be an ideal pick up as a rookie. Cats gain would be Lions loss!
Now that the drafts are complete, how do we see our list heading into 2014 and what still are our areas of need?
Wells has addressed a few issues that were identified during last season:
1. The need for more effective spread from the contest. Lang's inside ability together with his acceleration should help to address this area.
2. A lack of a big bodied mid. Jansen certainly fits the bill here. Is he good enough though?
3. Another big bodied defender. Toohey should help replace the likes of Lonergan over the next couple of years. I think this guy is potentially a very good pick up, particularly as a rookie.
From a "needs" basis these are the areas that stood out to me as having been covered. Clearly we are still in need of another ruckman, particularly if our injury woes in this area continue into 2014.
What else do we need? For me it's now about quality. I think serious consideration should be made to gain, either through trading for a young player already at an existing club or through gaining a higher draft pick, a potential A-grade midfielder. I'm talking maybe a top 5 pick or trading for the likes of a Shiel or Hoskin-Elliott or Treloar. Adams was one that slipped through so it appears the club are still looking at this type of a trade.
What do you give up to get it done? I'm not sure about that. Varcoe seems like an ideal candidate but would have insufficient currency. Most of our senior players are probably too old to generate interest - I can't see a club wanting a Bartel or Kelly. Steve Johnson might be the exception. Would you trade him now though if you thought our window was closing?! Hate to do it myself. What about Vardy? He could be anything but could quite easily not be as well. We really don't have too many viable trade options to get this sort of deal done. It might require player plus our top pick.
Who do you think the untouchables are on our list? And what do you think are our greatest areas of need now?
Wells has addressed a few issues that were identified during last season:
1. The need for more effective spread from the contest. Lang's inside ability together with his acceleration should help to address this area.
2. A lack of a big bodied mid. Jansen certainly fits the bill here. Is he good enough though?
3. Another big bodied defender. Toohey should help replace the likes of Lonergan over the next couple of years. I think this guy is potentially a very good pick up, particularly as a rookie.
From a "needs" basis these are the areas that stood out to me as having been covered. Clearly we are still in need of another ruckman, particularly if our injury woes in this area continue into 2014.
What else do we need? For me it's now about quality. I think serious consideration should be made to gain, either through trading for a young player already at an existing club or through gaining a higher draft pick, a potential A-grade midfielder. I'm talking maybe a top 5 pick or trading for the likes of a Shiel or Hoskin-Elliott or Treloar. Adams was one that slipped through so it appears the club are still looking at this type of a trade.
What do you give up to get it done? I'm not sure about that. Varcoe seems like an ideal candidate but would have insufficient currency. Most of our senior players are probably too old to generate interest - I can't see a club wanting a Bartel or Kelly. Steve Johnson might be the exception. Would you trade him now though if you thought our window was closing?! Hate to do it myself. What about Vardy? He could be anything but could quite easily not be as well. We really don't have too many viable trade options to get this sort of deal done. It might require player plus our top pick.
Who do you think the untouchables are on our list? And what do you think are our greatest areas of need now?
year of the cat
YOTC , I think the days of serious remuneration for mature players is almost done. FA has killed it. If you want to get to get a kid like mentioned , it will take our pick plus a kid close but just short of that ,
and even that may not get you the star you want.
You want Omeara. To get him , who knows , Motlop and Guthrie ?
We need to just getting the best kids we can and hope like hell one becomes the star you want. That , or we hope for a quality Father Son or two.
YOTC , I think the days of serious remuneration for mature players is almost done. FA has killed it. If you want to get to get a kid like mentioned , it will take our pick plus a kid close but just short of that ,
and even that may not get you the star you want.
You want Omeara. To get him , who knows , Motlop and Guthrie ?
We need to just getting the best kids we can and hope like hell one becomes the star you want. That , or we hope for a quality Father Son or two.
I think the likes of O'Meara are probably unattainable and would require the trading of untouchables. I'm probably thinking of the next tier down - still excellent, A-grade players but not rated as superstars just yet. As you say you can keep going back to the draft and hoping that one will come through that may become a star - but when you keep getting first round picks where we do the probability isn't great I would have thought.
dazbroncos
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The system is designed for us, or any team with long term success to fall.
So far, we have daffy ducked (turn dodge perry twist spin! ) our way around it.
To get we would have to give - and give big.
Guthrie and a pick for Ziebell, Shiel, Adams is probably a bit over but it is what they would want. My issue is what does it gain us? To we need what we get that badly to give up what we would have to?
FWIW, I wound never give up Guthrie.
Interesting question however YOTC
GO CATTERS
