List Mgmt. 2016 general list discussion and speculation (cont in Pt.2)

[Bobby_]

But would it be worth drafting & developing another ruckman for 3-5 years when we have already started that with Tom Read?
Wasn't too fit because of his illness but Wells knew he had the talent so rookied him so now he just has to work on his fitness & muscle because all the drafting reports say he has great talent for a ruckman.

I haven't seen enough of Read so perhaps you are right.
But go back five years to about the time frame in which ruckman develop, 2010-2011 drafts, look at the names from the national draft and then look at the names from the rookie draft and majority of the rookies are no longer listed in the AFL.
Most of the guys plucked in the national draft are listed and beginning to hold down the mantle of no.1 ruck at their club.

Just have no confidence at all in spending five years developing a Lucey or a Read and expecting them to take the club to the promise land.

 

[Turbocat]

I haven't seen enough of Read so perhaps you are right.
But go back five years to about the time frame in which ruckman develop, 2010-2011 drafts, look at the names from the national draft and then look at the names from the rookie draft and majority of the rookies are no longer listed in the AFL.
Most of the guys plucked in the national draft are listed and beginning to hold down the mantle of no.1 ruck at their club.

Just have no confidence at all in spending five years developing a Lucey or a Read and expecting them to take the club to the promise land.

Majority and most.... is a bit imprecise Bobby. Thats like saying 51% of the Rookies are gone etc. I think it maybe just a numbers game , and what we would have to know for sure is ... the best approach. If we get 1 gun ruck from 1 in 3 Rookies... then maybe we should just have 3 Rookies.
Ottens was an early pick so , pick the right player its worth it but I wonder how many gun ruckmen come from the R1 round the last 20 years? Its probably better to pay R1 for a player that has passed all the early hurdles and has 4-5 years already based in him. The best looking ruck we have had in a while is Stanley , so that sort of deal.
So I like developing 2-3 , while we have a mature guy playing in the 1's. Hopefully 1 of the developing players push thru , if not you trade for a mature player or just grab a FA.

 

[dazbroncos]

I tend to think Read will be Vardy type rather than a true #1 ruck. Could be a great asset to the club but as a #2 ruck and rotating forward….

and for all the smartarses out there no i don't mean injured and in the rehab group


GO Catters

 

[Turbocat]

Right. So:
Mots - Tigers
? - Carlton
Henderson to Cats.

Cats keep first round, get hendo, get danger and drop Mots? And maybe exchange of picks floating around.

So for the second year in a row...out goes a mid , in come a tall. Would change our targets in draft imo. Tigers R1 my guess is the missing element.

 

[manboob]

So for the second year in a row...out goes a mid , in come a tall. Would change our targets in draft imo. Tigers R1 my guess is the missing element.

Yeah that was my query too. The Tigers could end up with a pick around 16 or 17 after all the FAs have been done. Not sure how valuable that would be.
I think Geelong would want a bit more than Henderson for Motlop and Blues would want a bit more than 17 for Henderson? Maybe not given both are OOC.

 

[catswhiskers]

I tend to think Read will be Vardy type rather than a true #1 ruck. Could be a great asset to the club but as a #2 ruck and rotating forward….

and for all the smartarses out there no i don't mean injured and in the rehab group


GO Catters

Agree. Read is not a big bodied first ruck.
What he does have is very sticky fingers and knows how to judge the ball in flight. - hence the second ruck / forward role is probably his best possie. But not now and probably not next year.

Lucey has the body for first ruck but also needs to improve mobility and many other skills as well - but thats what he is about: learning the game we call AFL.

 

[you pick one]

Majority and most.... is a bit imprecise Bobby. Thats like saying 51% of the Rookies are gone etc. I think it maybe just a numbers game , and what we would have to know for sure is ... the best approach. If we get 1 gun ruck from 1 in 3 Rookies... then maybe we should just have 3 Rookies.
Ottens was an early pick so , pick the right player its worth it but I wonder how many gun ruckmen come from the R1 round the last 20 years? Its probably better to pay R1 for a player that has passed all the early hurdles and has 4-5 years already based in him. The best looking ruck we have had in a while is Stanley , so that sort of deal.
So I like developing 2-3 , while we have a mature guy playing in the 1's. Hopefully 1 of the developing players push thru , if not you trade for a mature player or just grab a FA.

Pretty sure Otto was picked up though primarily by the Tigers for his forward marking power and not his ruck work TC,so only counts by default.

 

[catempire]

Agree. Read is not a big bodied first ruck.
What he does have is very sticky fingers and knows how to judge the ball in flight. - hence the second ruck / forward role is probably his best possie. But not now and probably not next year.

I'm not so sure about that. He's 200cm and 90+kg now. He should make it to 100kg. That would make him a Lobbe/Maric/McEvoy size.

I've seen him twice in the flesh and I like his positioning in ruck contests. I think he has mainly played forward so far because of his poor fitness base due to his illness. I've got high hopes for him as a ruckman.

 

[Rosso]

Depending on big signings which = big $$$$ then Giles or someone similar who can play at that level but won't cost too much might appeal. I doubt that the Bombers would be to concerned in holding onto him just to play VFL.

 

[Bobby_]

Majority and most.... is a bit imprecise Bobby. Thats like saying 51% of the Rookies are gone etc. I think it maybe just a numbers game ,

I started going through the 2010 draft and 2011 draft but gave up. Too time consuming but you would be surprised mate.
The amount of rucks taken in the national draft were still on an AFL list while most of the rookies were no longer on any list. That's kind of why I was looking at the details to work out how successful the draft is when plucking a big man. I didn't go through the entire 2011, 2012 drafts, and anything after that would still be a work in progress as most rucks need a good 3-4 years before starting to see what's in store for them.

*Updated
Turbocat, here's a list of the ruckman drafted between 07-12 . . .

2007 national draft
Kreuzer (Carlton), McEvoy (Hawthorn), Lobbe (Port Adelaide), Simpson (Geelong), Putt (no longer listed)

2007 rookie draft
Connelly (no longer listed), Cartledge (no longer listed), Spencer (Melbourne), Orreal (no longer listed), Sullivan (no longer listed), Mumford (Geelong)

2008 national draft
Naitanui (West Coast), Cordy (Western Bulldogs), McKernan (Essendon), Clarke (Fremantle), Stanley (Geelong), Lowden (Adelaide), McCulloch (no longer listed)

2008 rookie draft
Murray (no longer listed), Bock (no longer listed), Browne (no longer listed), Pyke (Sydney), McGrath (no longer listed)

2009 national draft
Gawn (Melbourne), Vardy (Geelong), Pattison (no longer listed), Browne (no longer listed)

2009 rookie draft
Meeson (no longer listed), Prato (no longer listed), Bass (no longer listed)

2010 national draft
Lycett (West Coast), Derickx (Sydney), Mabon (no longer listed)

2010 rookie draft
Giles (Essendon), Phillips (GWS), McCauley (no longer listed), Curnow (no longer listed)

2011 national draft
Longer (St Kilda), Downie (GWS), Lever (no longer listed), Witts (Collingwood), Stephenson (no longer listed)

2011 rookie draft
Campbell (Western Bulldogs), Blicavs (Geelong), Craig (no longer listed), Dowdell (no longer listed)

2012 national draft
Grundy (Collingwood), McBean (Richmond), Currie (North Melbourne), Pierce (St Kilda), Daw (North Melbourne)

2012 rookie draft
Hannath (Fremantle), Ceglar (Hawthorn), Osborn (Adelaide), Moller (Fremantle), Naismith (Sydney)

 

[Claude Balls]

Going back a decade and a bit, the only high pick we've had who wasn't worked out was Tenace; and even he got to 50 games. The others were Corey, Bartel, Mackie and Selwood. Four out of five is a pretty good strike rate.

And the Tenace draft overall was pretty much the worst of all time.

 

[Cataholic]

So for the second year in a row...out goes a mid , in come a tall. Would change our targets in draft imo. Tigers R1 my guess is the missing element.

Well, we're a bit short......aren't we?

 

[Claude Balls]

+1 it does seem strange that of all the players we are into it's him. It's not really a weak area now or in the coming couple of years IMO. Two things I can think of though that might come into play. 1) he wants to come to us and a good player is a good player: in draft parlance I think the phrase is "best available" 2) Rivers and/or Lonergan are going to pull up stumps next year. 3) Clark?

Given what I've heard of the rebuild I can see the Blues trying to get maybe 4 first round picks so we might get back a pick in the 30's or 40's which wouldn't be the end of the world if this draft is as weak as they are saying it is.

On the last bit, how much can we take out of what 'they' are saying about the draft? You hear it pretty much every year at some stage in the preceding 6 months - it's going to be a weak one! I swear I've heard conflicting predictions in the same year too...

Anyway, weak or not, I just can't stomach the idea of giving a top 10 pick for a player who carries moderate injury risk and doesn't solve an urgent structural need.

Someone else mentioned the possibility of using the pick we get for Motlop, in the event that this rumour has legs and the club indeed suspects he will depart at year's end. At face I don't like the idea of Motlop<>Henderson all that much more than top 10 pick<>Henderson, but of course it's different if Steve actually wants to leave. Or if there is such a gulf in $ expectations as what is being suggested. If we got a mid-late first rounder for him and then on-trade it to the Blues for Hendo + a later pick (wishful thinking?), I'd consider it a win in the circumstances.

 

[manboob]

Oh yeah we hear it a lot and Wells manages to do OK. I would be pretty annoyed too if we gave up what could be a pick with the top 10 for Henderson if we got him and and a pick back it might be just passable... I agree with you that most of the Motlop Henderson permutations and pretty undesirable but if we get some added picks or an upgrade of picks it might make it less s**t.

 

[shadow cat]

i really hope the mots danger plus r1 pick deal is not true because it makes harder to please the blues for the henderson deal maybe a few late round picks could get us over the line or is it wishful thinking on my part.
if mots is apart of this pd deal i would feel disappointed we should not be losing anything for pd if we can help it

 

[CatsDoItBetter]

Losing a match winning player like Motlop for Henderson would be a disaster which would be nullified by gaining Danger if that happens.
You don't trade out players like Motlop unless they force you to I'm still hopeful that he will sign a contract fairly soon. We need more players that are match winners, kick goals, have speed and are mid 20s not less.

 

[jnrburger]

Losing a match winning player like Motlop for Henderson would be a disaster which would be nullified by gaining Danger if that happens.
You don't trade out players like Motlop unless they force you to I'm still hopeful that he will sign a contract fairly soon. We need more players that are match winners, kick goals, have speed and are mid 20s not less.

Losing a match winning player like Motlop for Henderson would be a disaster which would be nullified by gaining Danger if that happens.
You don't trade out players like Motlop unless they force you to I'm still hopeful that he will sign a contract fairly soon. We need more players that are match winners, kick goals, have speed and are mid 20s not less.

Agreed - would much rather hang on to Mots than let him go for Henderson. Would give us the opportunity to put a solid year into Kolo as the third tall to learn from Lonergan and Taylor, and then go for Schofield who is UFA at end 2016.

If the PD situation requires a trade, what do we think of Round 1 plus Murdoch?

 

[Chappycats]

I think the GFC needs to be a bit more flexible in payment terms to players. I know we had a system in place when we were a premiership contender but we had a lot of stars to fit in the SC back then. Times have changed and I think we need to move with those times and if that's means paying PD a bit more to get him as a FA and not a trade then so be it. We only have a couple of stars left so until we are back in contention we need to throw some money at some good players ie Treloar to attract them so we rebound quicker. Once they are at the club then worry about the cap.
With such a big gap between young and old and with retirements coming up we really shouldn't be anywhere near the cap limit, if we are then we are paying some players too much because performance vs pay is out of wack.
Also those that have been chronically injured should be almost on minimum wage until they can get back and earn a pay rise. They have been rewarded by even just staying on the list, time for them to pay the footy club back and if that means taking reduced pay, until they prove themselves again, so we can get some FA and other players then that's what should happen.

 

[Teriyakicat]

I tend to think Read will be Vardy type rather than a true #1 ruck. Could be a great asset to the club but as a #2 ruck and rotating forward….

and for all the smartarses out there no i don't mean injured and in the rehab group


GO Catters

I don't think that for ONE minute, daz!

 

[Teriyakicat]

I started going through the 2010 draft and 2011 draft but gave up. Too time consuming but you would be surprised mate.
The amount of rucks taken in the national draft were still on an AFL list while most of the rookies were no longer on any list. That's kind of why I was looking at the details to work out how successful the draft is when plucking a big man. I didn't go through the entire 2011, 2012 drafts, and anything after that would still be a work in progress as most rucks need a good 3-4 years before starting to see what's in store for them.

*Updated
Turbocat, here's a list of the ruckman drafted between 07-12 . . .

2007 national draft
Kreuzer (Carlton), McEvoy (Hawthorn), Lobbe (Port Adelaide), Simpson (Geelong), Putt (no longer listed)

2007 rookie draft
Connelly (no longer listed), Cartledge (no longer listed), Spencer (Melbourne), Orreal (no longer listed), Sullivan (no longer listed), Mumford (Geelong)

2008 national draft
Naitanui (West Coast), Cordy (Western Bulldogs), McKernan (Essendon), Clarke (Fremantle), Stanley (Geelong), Lowden (Adelaide), McCulloch (no longer listed)

2008 rookie draft
Murray (no longer listed), Bock (no longer listed), Browne (no longer listed), Pyke (Sydney), McGrath (no longer listed)

2009 national draft
Gawn (Melbourne), Vardy (Geelong), Pattison (no longer listed), Browne (no longer listed)

2009 rookie draft
Meeson (no longer listed), Prato (no longer listed), Bass (no longer listed)

2010 national draft
Lycett (West Coast), Derickx (Sydney), Mabon (no longer listed)

2010 rookie draft
Giles (Essendon), Phillips (GWS), McCauley (no longer listed), Curnow (no longer listed)

2011 national draft
Longer (St Kilda), Downie (GWS), Lever (no longer listed), Witts (Collingwood), Stephenson (no longer listed)

2011 rookie draft
Campbell (Western Bulldogs), Blicavs (Geelong), Craig (no longer listed), Dowdell (no longer listed)

2012 national draft
Grundy (Collingwood), McBean (Richmond), Currie (North Melbourne), Pierce (St Kilda), Daw (North Melbourne)

2012 rookie draft
Hannath (Fremantle), Ceglar (Hawthorn), Osborn (Adelaide), Moller (Fremantle), Naismith (Sydney)

Good work, Bobby!

What I take from that is that the Cats have no problem identifying talent- 5 of the 34 players remaining on lists were drafted by Geelong. You could argue that we struggle to let players go (Vardy, Simpson) but the fact remains that our blokes aren't too bad at picking decent rucks. Perhaps we just tend to pick 10 big blokes in the draft, in the blind hope that we can get one of them on the park in any one week.

 

[manboob]

I started going through the 2010 draft and 2011 draft but gave up. Too time consuming but you would be surprised mate.
The amount of rucks taken in the national draft were still on an AFL list while most of the rookies were no longer on any list. That's kind of why I was looking at the details to work out how successful the draft is when plucking a big man. I didn't go through the entire 2011, 2012 drafts, and anything after that would still be a work in progress as most rucks need a good 3-4 years before starting to see what's in store for them.

*Updated
Turbocat, here's a list of the ruckman drafted between 07-12 . . .

2007 national draft
Kreuzer (Carlton), McEvoy (Hawthorn), Lobbe (Port Adelaide), Simpson (Geelong), Putt (no longer listed)

2007 rookie draft
Connelly (no longer listed), Cartledge (no longer listed), Spencer (Melbourne), Orreal (no longer listed), Sullivan (no longer listed), Mumford (Geelong)

2008 national draft
Naitanui (West Coast), Cordy (Western Bulldogs), McKernan (Essendon), Clarke (Fremantle), Stanley (Geelong), Lowden (Adelaide), McCulloch (no longer listed)

2008 rookie draft
Murray (no longer listed), Bock (no longer listed), Browne (no longer listed), Pyke (Sydney), McGrath (no longer listed)

2009 national draft
Gawn (Melbourne), Vardy (Geelong), Pattison (no longer listed), Browne (no longer listed)

2009 rookie draft
Meeson (no longer listed), Prato (no longer listed), Bass (no longer listed)

2010 national draft
Lycett (West Coast), Derickx (Sydney), Mabon (no longer listed)

2010 rookie draft
Giles (Essendon), Phillips (GWS), McCauley (no longer listed), Curnow (no longer listed)

2011 national draft
Longer (St Kilda), Downie (GWS), Lever (no longer listed), Witts (Collingwood), Stephenson (no longer listed)

2011 rookie draft
Campbell (Western Bulldogs), Blicavs (Geelong), Craig (no longer listed), Dowdell (no longer listed)

2012 national draft
Grundy (Collingwood), McBean (Richmond), Currie (North Melbourne), Pierce (St Kilda), Daw (North Melbourne)

2012 rookie draft
Hannath (Fremantle), Ceglar (Hawthorn), Osborn (Adelaide), Moller (Fremantle), Naismith (Sydney)

56 taken. 32 remaining. 19 are crap/playing in the twos - that leaves 13 (of that I would say 5 are guns) from a total of 56 or 23%. So if you spend a pick on a ruckman you have a 25% chance that they will be serviceable. Point being I think you're off the mark a bit when it comes to drafting ruck men. That said, the statistics are no better or worse than a typical AFL draftee which is surprising given you would have generally no more than 5 blokes who could play ruck on a list and perhaps 20 blokes who could go through the midfield.

 

[Cattergirl]

I wonder what the hold up is on Hawkins' contract. Thought it might be sorted by now.

 

[manboob]

I wonder what the hold up is on Hawkins' contract. Thought it might be sorted by now.

Posted this in another thread.

The little kid in me believes that the club and Hawkins know that Dangerfield is coming and if they announce a (his) back ended contract that will give the game up as they (Peligro and Tummy) will probably both be on similar coin over the next 5 years but with inverse payment structures.

And don't forget his mother just passed. I don't think it's super high on his list of things to organise.

 

[Cattergirl]

Posted this in another thread.


And don't forget his mother just passed. I don't think it's super high on his list of things to organise.

Yeah that's true. Just getting a little bit anxious that we aren't hearing any contract news coming out of the club

 

[dazbroncos]

Yeah that's true. Just getting a little bit anxious that we aren't hearing any contract news coming out of the club

Fair point - but also consider the club said to him - we know you want to be here and you've had one hell of a few months.

Take your time, do your thing and deal with life. We will accommodate you as we do with all our players in times of need. Just let us know we are close on the deal and setback to us when you are ready.

I know people will site the Bundy example but the only thing they have in common is being unsigned. There is, by all reports, no other factors that match.

I would like his signature done and dusted but I can easily see a reason why it is not yet.

There are others where it is not so clear.

Go Catters