Are Geelong about to do a Carlton & Essendon?

[WCE_phil]

Cats did it and snared 3 flags without having a pick higher than 7.
It CAN be done, but everything has to go right.

To be fair Hawkins would have been a top 3 pick if not pick 1 and the 6 teams above you in regards to selwood only didn't select him earlier because of injury history, on talent he was again a top 2-3 pick. This doesn't include your other father/son picks and i will stick by what i've been saying for years in that ablett if he wasn't a father/son would have been a first round pick. The only reason he wasn't talked about nearly as much was because he was always going to be a father/son. He wouldn't have gone top 8 but 8-20 would have been his spot.

Geelong did incredibly well, but to suggest it will be easy to do again is delusional. They had a lot of luck with different rules in play at the time particularly in being able to get selwood,hawkins in the same draft and harry taylor the year after. Those 3 players were probably the difference in you getting the 09 and 11 flags. You still obviously would have won the 07 one imo.

 

[kelvin_sheedy]

Ridiculous call. Our golden run ended after the 2011 GF, we've been pretty damn good since with our "rebuild". I wouldn't say we are failing until we are finding ourselves in a similar situation in say 2017.

You've been very good since then because you have about 10 guys who have been great AFL players. I think the writing is on the wall this year that it could be no finals this year and possibly the next couple.

Hindsight is now saying you should have started to turnover these greats after 2011 and by now could have regenerated the list completely. Stevie J was offered a 5 year deal by GC or GWS.

Trade value for all you good players is pretty much zero now. Interesting times ahead for the Cats seeing they've posted two substantial losses in a row financially and the list is starting to look as healthy.

 

[ThatsjustDappa]

That poster that was given as a goal in the 09 GF from Hawkins certainly counted. Got gifts with the old rule F/S selections so they could keep their draft picks for Bartel etc. V lucky. Then they got to sell Ablett, who they got for free, so double dipped again. No team will ever get that outrageous luck, from the old F/S rule and that goal umpire error, again. They are heading for the bottom, fast.

I thought the better 09 goal was the toe poke from lucky father son scarlett to lucky father son ablett, shovelled out by flukey 1 in 10 great game (for the cats) varcoe and snapped for a goal by lucky chapman swap for mansfield....

 

[eastfreo75]

The Blues and Essendon thought that could challenge for a flag, but Geelong know that they are rebuilding.

Rebuilding doesn't need to be destroy your winning culture by getting rid of your ageing players and getting early draft picks.

The Cats are blooding youth and going after middle age players ie Dangerfield.

 

[HTPunter]

They definitely need to make some tough calls on a) veterans such as Enright, Johnson, Kelly (but Geelong have made those calls in the past with Chapman, Milburn, Mooney so I have faith they do) and b) on permanently injured players. Yes Menzel and Cowan are hard luck stories and I do feel for those players, but when you're rebuilding, you surely can't have ALL of Menzel, Cowan, Vardy, McIntosh and although they have got a good amount of games this year Clark and Simpson.

It's unfortunate but it certainly takes away from depth and also slows your rebuilding imo.

 

[HTPunter]

That poster that was given as a goal in the 09 GF from Hawkins certainly counted. Got gifts with the old rule F/S selections so they could keep their draft picks for Bartel etc. V lucky. Then they got to sell Ablett, who they got for free, so double dipped again. No team will ever get that outrageous luck, from the old F/S rule and that goal umpire error, again. They are heading for the bottom, fast.

Wow.

For Ablett the 'double dipping' they got was 2 first round compensation picks - for a top team, two picks between 12-20 really (ended up being 15. Billie Smedts and trade for Caddy). How on earth is this 'lucky'? I would say you'd be filthy if at the end of 2010 the Saints had got two mid first round picks for Riewoldt/Hayes/Goddard.
Ablett was easily worth two top 5 picks in a trade situation. Geelong got jipped.

As for the F/S selections - well, if we ignore that Ablett(s) weren't that highly rated anyway and Geelong more or less got them for where they were commonly rated in the draft - leaves Scarlett and Hawkins doesn't it?
As opposed to getting Riewoldt AND Kosi in the same draft, or maybe getting pick 1 because Carlton cheated (so you got Goddard)...I'd say that's pretty lucky?

 

[HTPunter]

Duncan and Bartel out certainly doesn't help. Bartel played just his 3rd/4th? game for the season, Duncan for close to the rest of the season.

So instead of Selwood + Duncan/Bartel + youth and past it, they have Selwood + youth and past it players. Caddy, Guthrie are solid but not yet really up to it v top teams, Lang, Gregson, Cockatoo, Thurlow can all progress to a bigger role in the midfield over next 2-3 years, while Johnson, Kelly and Stokes are serviceable but no longer stars.

 

[Zephyr Effekt]

Thanks for your advice but we won't be taking any advice from Essendon - on anything.

How about just some cash then?

 

[Herne Hill Hammer]

You've been very good since then because you have about 10 guys who have been great AFL players. I think the writing is on the wall this year that it could be no finals this year and possibly the next couple.

I think part of the reason Geelong were able to finish in the top 4 at the end of the h&a last season is the inability of other clubs to rise up the ladder, whether or not that has been because of the compromised drafts or not, I don't know. I suspect it could have had a bit to do with it though.

Geelong getting knocked out in straight sets last year was a better indication of where they were in the pecking order, just like North's belting in the pf was a better indication of exactly where they were.

As far as finals go, I haven't given a hoot if they make finals or not for a couple of years. I'd actually like them as far as possible down the ladder to maximise their draft position.

Another problem is having 5 or so spots short on the list every season while they continue to carry seemingly permanently injured players.

 

[Herne Hill Hammer]

Wow.

For Ablett the 'double dipping' they got was 2 first round compensation picks - for a top team, two picks between 12-20 really (ended up being 15. Billie Smedts and trade for Caddy). How on earth is this 'lucky'? I would say you'd be filthy if at the end of 2010 the Saints had got two mid first round picks for Riewoldt/Hayes/Goddard.
Ablett was easily worth two top 5 picks in a trade situation. Geelong got jipped.

As for the F/S selections - well, if we ignore that Ablett(s) weren't that highly rated anyway and Geelong more or less got them for where they were commonly rated in the draft - leaves Scarlett and Hawkins doesn't it?
As opposed to getting Riewoldt AND Kosi in the same draft, or maybe getting pick 1 because Carlton cheated (so you got Goddard)...I'd say that's pretty lucky?

You forgot Ball the year after Roo and Kosi as another priority pick. In a 3 year period, they basically had 3 number 1s, a number 2 and a 5 and an 8 (Clarke boys).

Scarlett they almost paid overs for, no one else were interested in him, I think Geelong were a tad reluctant too.

Ablett they got for unders, was touted around late first round, early second round.

Hawkins was the only real one that went for massive unders. Was touted top 5 if not number 1.

 

[Demz]

How about just some cash then?

Yes please, you can buy me a slab of beer

 

[DrEvil_]

Last nights game they had 11 guys over 150 games experience. Only 6 guys under 50 games.

They rely on Selwood so much that if he is curtailed they are certain to lose.

They have topped up with Mitch Clark which hasn't worked.

Young kids coming through? Most of them don't look like they'll be as good as the previous generation and don't compare too well to kids at other clubs.

The investment in Caddy has reaped an ok midfielder but not the gun they were expecting.

The question is why are so many old guys playing? Why aren't more kids being played?

No Geelong are not about to do an Essendon. No other team is going to do an Essendon.

 

[DrEvil_]

It will happen to Hawthorn as well.

Hodge, Lewis, Roughead (turning 29 in January), Miitchell, Gibson will all start hanging up their boots and will retire in quick succession.

Puopolo, Birchall, Smith Frawley will be 27-28 this time next year.

I'd say the decline has already happened. We reached our zenith at GF day 2014. Will challenge this year but won't get there, follow by a quick slide down the ladder next couple of years. Looking at the youngsters at St Kilda and GWS today we'll have trouble beating them.

 

[Demz]

I'd say the decline has already happened. We reached our zenith at GF day 2014. Will challenge this year but won't get there, follow by a quick slide down the ladder next couple of years. Looking at the youngsters at St Kilda and GWS today we'll have trouble beating them.

i duno, i think if you re-sign Clarko he'll keep the Hawkes in the top8 but i dunno about a top 4 though

 

[CharacterFirst]

Pfft.

We dominated the comp for a decade. Greatest winning club over 200 game period - ever. 3 Flags after over 40 years with nothing. Brownlow's, Normies, AAs.

I will not complain at all if we spend a few years down the ladder as we continue to transition the list.

What a ride it has been.

We are Geelong!

Some people....

 

[Boxhead_31]

Why would he go to North "just yet" or "in the future"? North have the biggest issues with youth. North are built to win now (they won't), not for a year or two. And not to be a homer, but Collingwood should be on the list.



Keep your eyes on us - we're going the same path.

Except you've had the early draft picks.
Hindsight being what it is we should have taken the GWS deal for SJ from last year and had the three picks in the first 15

 

[dazbroncos]

Chris Scott still thinks their best can beat anyone.

Our best beat you this year

Sadly our best is something that has disappeared as our injury list lengthened.

And now, its just purely MIA…

GO Catters

 

[living_in_syd]

Keep in mind Geelong did it with the advantage of the old F/S system and they had some ridiculously good F/S picks. With the current system it will be even harder. Nothing is impossible of course but the margins for error are even slimmer. Not only the advantage of securing guys like Ablett, Scarlett, Hawkins but the secondary advantage of not using top picks on them. Eg under the new system they would have probably missed out on Selwood to secure Hawkins.

Although the clubs now middling don't have to worry about any expansion teams raping the drafts for the next few years.

 

[The 747]

No team that fields an equal salary cap can stay in the top 8 forever.

 

[HTPunter]

You forgot Ball the year after Roo and Kosi as another priority pick. In a 3 year period, they basically had 3 number 1s, a number 2 and a 5 and an 8 (Clarke boys).

Scarlett they almost paid overs for, no one else were interested in him, I think Geelong were a tad reluctant too.

Ablett they got for unders, was touted around late first round, early second round.

Hawkins was the only real one that went for massive unders. Was touted top 5 if not number 1.

That's true - Hawkins would have gone with your first pick under the new rules, but Ablett I imagine you could have got with either pick 23 (Charlie Gardiner) or the pick 41 you did take him with. I can't see any team bidding on him to make you pay pick 8 (Bartel) for him. So either you picked him for what you paid for him anyway undr new rules or got him a rojnd earlier.

Off topic, the pick 17 used for James Kelly has a fascinating history. Starting at Richmond, it went to Sydney, St Kilda, Fremantle, Melbourne and then Geelong. From what I read, the players involved for the pick (along with other picks and what not) were Greg Stafford, Barry Hall, Heath Black, Jeff Farmer and Clint Bizzell.

 

[MC Extra Dollop]

You've been very good since then because you have about 10 guys who have been great AFL players. I think the writing is on the wall this year that it could be no finals this year and possibly the next couple.

Hindsight is now saying you should have started to turnover these greats after 2011 and by now could have regenerated the list completely.

Hindsight is a wonderful thing, isn't it? 18-4 during the 2013 season and five and zip against what was a pretty clear top four during the H&A games that year.

We were up by three goals heading in to the last quarter of the 2013 PF and were still in front when that game was in to time on. A bee's dick from another Grand Final (I've got no problem with saying that Hawthorn was clearly the better side that night, but nevertheless...) and had we got there and the Dockers displayed the same symptoms of stage fright against the Cats as they did against the Hawks, we would have had a puncher's chance of stealing another flag.

How many teams in the AFL have not had a top four year team in the past decade? Geelong has been at that level, or thereabouts every year since the last premiership until now and we're supposed to have blown up the team four years ago?

Stevie J was offered a 5 year deal by GC or GWS.

Trade value for all you good players is pretty much zero now.

The thing about the Steve Johnson trade rumour (besides why TF would GWS want him when they've been about as good as anyone could have hoped for this year and they still look a good two years off seriously competing) that I don't expect the rank-and-file to ever be able to get their head around, is that a club's champions are more than just commodities. Say we traded Johnson away, showing him zero loyalty and making him go somewhere that he didn't want to be. If you want to get loyalty (e.g. Motlop, Hawkins, Dangerfield) from guys that you want to sign to long term deals, then it's probably not a good idea to treat your aging superstars like cattle, once they're in their twilight.

What Geelong didn't do, should have done and is now paying for, was continue to rotate its older players throughout the season from 2012-14, as it had in 2011 (the Cats didn't have a single player that played every game that year). What would have happened, if it had stayed the course with the rotation policy is three things:

• The older players would have been fresher for the finals and Geelong would have had the best chance to play its best football in September.
• We would have had a better look at players that ultimately proved to be not up to it and could have ditched them a year or two before we ultimately did.
• Following on from the above point, the younger players that are in the side now and are still developing would have had 15-30 more senior games under their belts and would have been better players by now.

 

[JackOutback]

No one could possibly do what Essendon have done. Geelong know they are rebuilding but might be in the middle of a sticky patch, experienced players and youngsters with little in between.

 

[Gavin Excell]

Been great players but I hope Enright and Kelly decide to retire this year

 

[Catatonic Shock]

Stevie J was offered a 5 year deal by GC or GWS.

No he wasn't, complete fiction.
GWS threw up a tentative "would he be interested?" and it went no further.

 

[Fluro Boots]

Been great players but I hope Enright and Kelly decide to retire this year

Kelly is definitely cooked. This will be an important year for Geelong list wise. I'd expect Kelly, McIntosh and probably Enright to move on. It's the what else happens that intrigues me. Motlop gone? Rivers let go? Geelong have made hard calls in the last few years, will they continue to do the same.