Prediction Changes: Round 13 Vs Richmond + prematch discussion

[Taylor]

What is the evidence for this claim?

Look at absolutely any literature on body dysmorphia. There is a very real situation where they want to gain muscle but won't consume enough to do for fear of losing their low body fat because they are vain about their abs.

It's the same neural pathways as anorexia nervosa.

So again, I was floating a reason why an athlete with a clearly high interest in their body's look might have trouble gaining size - but he has gained size.

 

[arsesmart]

Imagine reading something written as a 'possible' or as a 'I wonder' as a criticism.

Also ridiculous.

I hope he does very well. Henry hasn't shown much in his time at the club, I don't think he has break away speed or any special attribute. I hope he proves me completely wrong.

No that's not how it happened. The only evidence for that speculative theory was the existence of the abs. When the significant evidence contrary to that theory was put forward, Taylor doubled down and avoided any suggestion her theory might be tenuous or "just a theory".

 

[Ge3ks]

 

[Taylor]

I didn't bring it up.

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

I hold hope for Henry because as far as I’m concerned, the only thing holding him back from being an AFL player is decision making at the level. His disposal is good, his decision making can be horrific. I think he’s in his head too much at AFL because he’s now a gun WAFL player and a large reason Pel are so good.

Would I have preferred Ras? Yes, but I like rewarding a player who has gone back and put together a strong run of games and I think Ras is a victim of how highly the club rates Johnno.

Also shoutout to the club for doing the same thing with Sturt and giving him a proper game to show his stuff

 

[Descent]

Look at absolutely any literature on body dysmorphia. There is a very real situation where they want to gain muscle but won't consume enough to do for fear of losing their low body fat because they are vain about their abs.

It's the same neural pathways as anorexia nervosa.

So again, I was floating a reason why an athlete with a clearly high interest in their body's look might have trouble gaining size - but he has gained size.

You're talking about psychopathology and equivocating about a professional athlete who has abs. That's patently absurd.

 

[Taylor]

You're talking about psychopathology and equivocating about a professional athlete who has abs. That's patently absurd.

The unquestionable total compliance from AFL athletes are why none of them ever get in trouble for drinking and they never get in their own way on anything.

 

[Descent]

The unquestionable total compliance from AFL athletes are why none of them ever get in trouble for drinking and they never get in their own way on anything.

That's not even remotely the same thing.

 

[SupermanCapes]

Genuinely never thought I'd see the day we have Amiss, Treacy, Sturt, Henry, Banfield and Hughes all in the same side.

 

[Dockeroo]

We’ll see what happens this weekend. Happy to give Liam a chance and see if he’s improved at this level since the Adelaide game. Would be slightly concerned that Erasmus development is rather fragmented over the last year or so but it is what it is.
I’ll be judging Liam based on what he does on the field this weekend not on his abs.

 

[Taylor]

That's not even remotely the same thing.

It's symptomatic of the reality that just because someone is in a professional system it doesn't mean they are no longer human, ask any S&C team in the AFL- the hardest part of the job is compliance to programs in the hours not under supervision.

 

[E Shed]

I’m actually seeing some good evidence of long term player development.

I called it early in the week that the thinking around selection would be for Johnson & Aish to go inside more except my left field
suggestion was Worner rather than Henry.
I had Sturt as a faint chance for sub on the assumption Walters was straight back in.

I think Walters is a canny sub move. We saw the way he came out of the blocks earlier in the year & lit it up. He does need managed minutes as he gets older. His track record with calf & soft tissue stuff hasn’t been great.

The players on the fringe/outside the 22 are being rotated nicely & all being given opportunities in small blocks to press claims. Those like Johnson who look straight at home at the level become incumbents.

Erasmus for all his attributes is still a bit scrappy & I think he’s coming along nicely. He’s not going to walk out the door because he’s not automatic best 22. There are older/better players in front of him & he’s not seen as a wing/forward type. His time will come.

I see it completely differently to when the likes of Weller, Langdon, Blakely weren’t getting opportunities despite the team being listless & any number of senior players phoning it in.

We currently have a cohesive, talented & driven team out there with clear lines of succession for players in each area of the ground.

Sturt & Henry have both been performing to a high level at Peel & deserve further opportunities to press their claims on a senior berth.

Erasmus will get more opportunities this year. Emmett, Corbett, Worner aren’t too far back in the queue. The likes of Reidy & Kuek are miles off it.

I think they are managing the players well. Erasmus is stiff to miss but Henry has earned this recall & it allows Johnson to assume a more inside role which is his natural position.

 

[Descent]

It's symptomatic of the reality that just because someone is in a professional system it doesn't mean they are no longer human, ask any S&C team in the AFL- the hardest part of the job is compliance to programs in the hours not under supervision.

What's the most common phrase in the DSM 5?

 

[Paracleet]

You're talking about psychopathology and equivocating about a professional athlete who has abs. That's patently absurd.

After tolerating years of it, this is the hill we're finally going to die on? Hell, why not?

 

[Taylor]

What's the most common phrase in the DSM 5?

Probably personal functioning

 

[Descent]

Probably personal functioning

Very close, it's the more formal version: "clinically significant impairment". Not relevant to Liam's abs.
"But it's the same neural pathways" is hand wavy nonsense. If there's one thing we've learnt from decades of [mostly wasted] fMRI studies, it's that it's never the same pathways.

 

[Purple Suit]

I’m actually seeing some good evidence of long term player development.

I called it early in the week that the thinking around selection would be for Johnson & Aish to go inside more except my left field
suggestion was Worner rather than Henry.
I had Sturt as a faint chance for sub on the assumption Walters was straight back in.

I think Walters is a canny sub move. We saw the way he came out of the blocks earlier in the year & lit it up. He does need managed minutes as he gets older. His track record with calf & soft tissue stuff hasn’t been great.

The players on the fringe/outside the 22 are being rotated nicely & all being given opportunities in small blocks to press claims. Those like Johnson who look straight at home at the level become incumbents.

Erasmus for all his attributes is still a bit scrappy & I think he’s coming along nicely. He’s not going to walk out the door because he’s not automatic best 22. There are older/better players in front of him & he’s not seen as a wing/forward type. His time will come.

I see it completely differently to when the likes of Weller, Langdon, Blakely weren’t getting opportunities despite the team being listless & any number of senior players phoning it in.

We currently have a cohesive, talented & driven team out there with clear lines of succession for players in each area of the ground.

Sturt & Henry have both been performing to a high level at Peel & deserve further opportunities to press their claims on a senior berth.

Erasmus will get more opportunities this year. Emmett, Corbett, Worner aren’t too far back in the queue. The likes of Reidy & Kuek are miles off it.

I think they are managing the players well. Erasmus is stiff to miss but Henry has earned this recall & it allows Johnson to assume a more inside role which is his natural position.

Spot on, it seems like it is a fair system that is focused on winning games with an eye to the future.

Henry has become a great WAFL player, if we just ignore him all year then he walks at the end for not much. If he comes on this year, he could turn into the attacking winger we've been looking for since Langdon / Hill left. Ras has got plenty of time to get opportunities and half way thru his second year isn't panic stations.

I have also managed to contain my Abs from causing me any trouble with timely drinking.

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

I think all parties have had their say on Liam’s glorious muscles and we can leave it from here

 

[Purpletown]

I have also managed to contain my Abs from causing me any trouble with timely drinking.

Lateral thinking at it's absolute best Purple Suit.

 

[Dockernut]

I thought Liam Henry turned a corner watching the WAFL and was earning his way back in, right up until the point he snapped at goal with space and time and didn’t make the distance from 20-25m out. Now I know it’s one kick, but that’s the momentum killer, the crowd groans. We all saw it earlier in the year and it saps the group. So much hard work to get free inside 25m to end in a ball not making the distance and falling into the defenders arms.

Neil Erasmus is already a better player, think of the bone crunching hip and shoulders, 2nd effort tackles etc. He has his dumb moments, back heel twice resulting in turnover but that’s decision making, coaching. He will know to take the boundary, reset next time.

I’m not sure I’ll ever have confidence in Henry’s kicking. Coupled with the sometimes questionable decision making, small body and average pace, I’m not sure he makes it. Glad to be wrong because we need an elite wingman.

This.

 

[Bigger]

I have also managed to contain my Abs from causing me any trouble with timely drinking.

Excellent work. I went so hard on abs prevention that I impacted the liver.


Despite my solid statistically-based prognostication work with the round 13 data, I am now getting The Fear. Wet track, loose pill, chaos - that's the sort of skill-free nonsense relentless forward movers like Richmond revel in.

Bringing in a chap like Henry, who operates at a majestically glacial speed, has just sealed the deal. He's going to swoop on a loose ball, scoop it up and commence workshopping the best Insta filter for the four or five really cool things he could possibly do with the pill, when five Richmond human-buttplug types with superiority complexes born of winning three flags a while ago are going to just kill him. He will just be killed.

This is better. I have worked my way back into the mentally weak position I feel most comfortable in.

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

I thought Liam Henry turned a corner watching the WAFL and was earning his way back in, right up until the point he snapped at goal with space and time and didn’t make the distance from 20-25m out. Now I know it’s one kick, but that’s the momentum killer, the crowd groans. We all saw it earlier in the year and it saps the group. So much hard work to get free inside 25m to end in a ball not making the distance and falling into the defenders arms.

Neil Erasmus is already a better player, think of the bone crunching hip and shoulders, 2nd effort tackles etc. He has his dumb moments, back heel twice resulting in turnover but that’s decision making, coaching. He will know to take the boundary, reset next time.

I’m not sure I’ll ever have confidence in Henry’s kicking. Coupled with the sometimes questionable decision making, small body and average pace, I’m not sure he makes it. Glad to be wrong because we need an elite wingman.

While I’m hopeful on Henry, I think that’s fair. Something had to be done about those snaps and his goal kicking off a mark. It’s bizarre how short/bad they are.

I also just want to bring up his most impressive moment from that Peel game for mine which was when I saw sprint from off the camera screen to contest a loose ball on the wing and force it over from a stoppage. Dudes onfield work rate has improved out of sight

 

[CakeEater]

Basil will be commentating this weekend

 

[Paracleet]

While I’m hopeful on Henry, I think that’s fair. Something had to be done about those snaps and his goal kicking off a mark. It’s bizarre how short/bad they are.

I also just want to bring up his most impressive moment from that Peel game for mine which was when I saw sprint from off the camera screen to contest a loose ball on the wing and force it over from a stoppage. Dudes onfield work rate has improved out of sight

I don't think it's fair at all. In the same game he ran through a pack the slotted the goal from 40? Why not pick that one data point?
Sure pick on the depth of his set shot kicking. It's poor, but everybody has snaps come up short even from quite close. Shultz did it just last game.

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

I don't think it's fair at all. In the same game he ran through a pack the slotted the goal from 40? Why not pick that one data point?
Sure pick on the depth of his set shot kicking. It's poor, but everybody has snaps come up short even from quite close. Shultz did it just last game.

I think that's head in the sand stuff when he's consistently short from within the 40m. It's not picking one data point, I could pick a lot over the course of the last few years. The snap in question was basically uncontested and 25m out, that cant be short.

I agree on the run he's generally fine, which is why I singled out snaps and from the mark.