Jack Riewoldt, worth considering?
-
LIVE: Carlton v Melbourne - 7:30PM Thu
Squiggle tips Demons at 59% chance -- What's your tip? -- Team line-ups »
-
Weekly Prize - Join Any Time - Tip Round 9
The Golden Ticket - MCG and Marvel Medallion Club tickets and Corporate Box tickets at the Gabba, MCG and Marvel.
Round 8 Winner: bearweger
DT Forwards 2012
- Thread starter longytap
- Start date
- Tagged users None
No - unless you're going for the weekly prize and hope to have a huge one when he might kick an absolute bag.
Honestly i've never really fancied FF's, maybe Lloyd back in the day, but times have changed.
I'm actually picking him because of his remarkable consistency (his last 5 years of DT have netted averages of 94, 91, 92, 99 and 102), but sure.
- Aug 15, 2011
- 23,831
- 8,408
- AFL Club
- Essendon
- Other Teams
- Port Adelaide
- Aug 15, 2011
- 23,831
- 8,408
- AFL Club
- Essendon
- Other Teams
- Port Adelaide
Ok, just doesn't seem to be many around his price range that I should bring in. Any suggestions? I considered Christianson, but thought Riewoldt would be a safer bet.
Thats one way of looking at it, Keystone agony.
Some positives -
He is still probably more durable than Franklin.
Averaged over 100 and obviously wasn't anywhere near 100% fit
Is apparently tearing up the pre-season (source afl website)
Said he is determined to pay back his team-mates, and if his surgery has ceased the pain coming from his groin, and knee, it could be back to his 2010 average of 110+...
Just the angle that I saw...
I was in a similar boat, had Dangerfield pencilled in, I just changed it to Smedts.
Wheedus
Team Captain
If we're talking about FWD keepers (blokes you're locking in from the start and don't plan to trade), the focus should be on total points. A good average is one thing. Playing all 22 is another. Basically, you want as close to (if not above) 2200 points from that player. Looking at some of this years propects, based on 2011 averages, they're ranked as follows:
SJ 107.2
Chap 102.2
Franklin 101.6
Beams 101.6
Goodes 99.3
Fyfe 98.4
Cloke 95.7
Pav 94.5
Mitch 92.2
Martin 89.5
Zaka 88.2
But if you look at it in terms of games played and total points:
Goodes (22) 2185
SJ (20) 2144
Cloke (22) 2105
Fyfe (21) 2066
Chap (20) 2044
Martin (22) 1969
Zaka (22) 1940
Mitch (21) 1936
Franklin (19) 1930
Pav (20) 1884
Beams* (14) 1422
If you assume Geelong will continue their rotational policy, then neither SJ or Chappy are liklely to play 22. I suspect Chappy's average may improve but I doubt SJ's will. In terms of total points, there's still solid grounds for locking in one of them.
Goodes is probably the most durable player in the competition and whilst he might have the odd off day, the total points speak for themselves. From a League point of view, his draw is not great when you look at the teams Sydney play through the finals rounds. However, from an overall point of view, it's difficult to find reasons not to lock him in.
You'd be brave to assume Franklin will play more than 20 given his suspension history and Clarko's habbit of mass resting in one of the last rounds. Coupled with Hawthorn's ordinary early draw, I doubt you could call him an automatic lock.
For me, Cloke is the stand out there and he too has a great history of durability. His advantage over Goodes is he's in the prime of his career playing for a very good side vying for Grand Final. I reckon he could crack the 2200 this year.
Martin, Zaka and Mitch are all pretty close and there's plenty of debate going on at the moment about which if them to choose. I don't think you could go wrong selecting one (or possibly two). Mitch for me at the moment. However, there is still risk with these guys as they are not yet proven premos.
Obviously Beams' total is down due to the 8 games he missed in the middle of the season. Based on his finish to the season, his ceiling is great but he's still not a proven durable and for me he's over-priced. Probably one to look to get in after some of that price is washed away
Anyway, just some food for thought.
In terms of strategy, there is one obvious problem - the top 5 (based on totals) all share the Rd 12 bye, so you probably can't have more than 2 of them. If you go with 3 then you need to be prepared to cop a donut in Rd 12, which is not an unreaslitic assumption as, in my view, the best strategy without compromising your overall team, is to wear two donuts across the three bye rounds (best case scenario).... but that's a whole different discussion which I'm not getting into here (my head hurts every time I think about it)
I really like Christensen, honestly thought he was the pick of the draft last year, considering where he was chosen. I expect much improvement this year with no Green Vest.
Maybe you can give a bit more details on Christensen, but for me - he's in.
Great post Wheedus - very good points.
Good to note that generally you do get the 50-70 points that your bench player supplies when your Gun player misses out. But your argument is still very valid that you must look at total rather than purely avg.
Good to note that generally you do get the 50-70 points that your bench player supplies when your Gun player misses out. But your argument is still very valid that you must look at total rather than purely avg.
Wheedus
Team Captain
Yeah, agree. As long as your premiums don't decide to take a holiday in rounds 11, 12 or 13. No such thing as bench cover those weeks.
- Aug 15, 2011
- 23,831
- 8,408
- AFL Club
- Essendon
- Other Teams
- Port Adelaide
For me durability is defined by two things, amount of games played in the season, injuries picked up/carried in the season. I don't see a player who plays 22 games in one year but only does because he gets injection after injection, blood taken out/ frozen and put in/ nerves burnt so he feels no pain as a durable player. Maybe others do.
Buddy avg 19.75 games past 4 years, the only reason he seems to miss game is either through suspension which he gets harsh calls on because of his size/status in the game. Or the hawks rest, ala R24 vs GC.
Where as Chapman over the past 4 years, has avg 18.75 games. One game lass than Buddy a year. He rarely puts himself in a position to get suspended, although he did have the incident with Dunn. However his body is terrible he is like 5-8 years older than Buddy and he has just had major/minor surgery on two body parts ala Lake/Fyfe. If you pick Chappy than you may as well pick Fyfe.
Tearing up the preseason? please we hear it from everyone about everyone. All you need to do is run within 10secs of your 2-3km time trial and "your as fit as ever". The reality of preseason was that Geelong started a lot later than other teams, was it December or late November? pies started in December from memory. The grand final was played late in September, than you have the next day as your "seeing the fans day" than after that is "muck up Monday". So the earliest he would have had surgery would have been in October. He probably didn't even start preseason or didn't start preseason doing the full work and considering it was a late start anyway, means he missed a fair amount of work before Christmas. Even in that article he said he needs to keep on top of his groins and closely monitor them. Burnt nerves isn't a good thing, it basically helps you feel less pain.
He could again avg 110, but he comes with a massive risk and you really are relying on good luck as shown above. I see less and less midfield time for Chappy aswell. I think he will play closer to goal and rotate alot less. Midfield time will be injected into the youth. Christensen, Guthrie/Hogan taggers, Smedts, Duncan, Varcoe ect
Some really good points there mate, good post. Not saying I disagree with you at all, you make some really good points. I was just looking at the other side of the coin. Like you said, What scares me off about me picking Chappy is the 2-3 games he might miss for his groin or "general soreness". However what makes me really want to pick him is that he's capable of averaging 110+. It's pretty hard to pick him over Goodes at this point, though.
It depends on the level of cover ( ie how well the rookies on the bench work out )
If you have someone on the bench that normally scores 60-70 and you are able to use him for cover ( element of luck here ) then looking at last years total for that position you'd have:
Johnson 2265 ( assuming your emergency scores 60/game )
Goodes 2185
Chapman 2164
Fyfe 2126
Buddy 2110
Cloke 2105
Tradionally goodes has been a player that I have upgraded to as he is older and does have slower starts to the year especially with a tough draw. Chappy was now where near fit last year and still averaged well. As a goal kicking mid fielder I think he is a must and then look to upgrade when the body gets a little tired. Buddy I think is a must, potential to have huge scores and playing in a dominate side.
The big ones are looking into the value side of things. Revolting and Big bad browny are to that have had interupted years but the best footy is still available.
This year the forward line is essential as there are some real bargins that could earn plenty of coin early for you to then upgrade to players how have had slow pre seasons like fyfe. One question is on Zaka's knees, how will they hold up. Martin is better value for me.
The big ones are looking into the value side of things. Revolting and Big bad browny are to that have had interupted years but the best footy is still available.
This year the forward line is essential as there are some real bargins that could earn plenty of coin early for you to then upgrade to players how have had slow pre seasons like fyfe. One question is on Zaka's knees, how will they hold up. Martin is better value for me.
By picking Chapman he is someone that you want to have all year, he is a top 5 premium. You don't want to be making sideways trades late in the season when trades become gold.
You just have to make the decision whether you want to take a bit of a risk with a player who has a massive scoring ability or go for a proven durable player who is consistent.
Like SaintSeptember said above, if Chapman averages 110, plays 20 games; as long as you have a guy coming off the bench to cover getting 50-70 I reckon you would take that. On the flipside, lets say Chappy only plays 16 and on 3 occasions you have a donut and on 2 occasions you get 60, that's definitely a loss.
The again Goodes might average more than Chapman and play more games, anything could happen. You just have to whey it up and pick the option that will get you the most points.
Just having a look at Franklin and all the talk not to get him - to me he's seems perfect.
He plays arguably his worst side round 1 (although before last year he had previously scored 4 consecutive 100's against collingwood) - which is the best time to play your worst team as it only affect 1 week of price change.
He plays arguably his 2nd weakest team in rd 2, again, this only counts for 2 price changes.
He then has a stretch of playing team he scored the following against;
72
127
144 & 100
125
87 & 127
So unless you plan on trading him in at rd 4-5, which is highly unlikely given his starting price and the fact you'll probably be looking to use a 100k rookie to upgrade to him. He seems a perfect player to have.
Only way you could work it your way is having 200k in the bank just for that trade.
Just food for thought...i know i'm struggling to settle my forwards.
He plays arguably his worst side round 1 (although before last year he had previously scored 4 consecutive 100's against collingwood) - which is the best time to play your worst team as it only affect 1 week of price change.
He plays arguably his 2nd weakest team in rd 2, again, this only counts for 2 price changes.
He then has a stretch of playing team he scored the following against;
72
127
144 & 100
125
87 & 127
So unless you plan on trading him in at rd 4-5, which is highly unlikely given his starting price and the fact you'll probably be looking to use a 100k rookie to upgrade to him. He seems a perfect player to have.
Only way you could work it your way is having 200k in the bank just for that trade.
Just food for thought...i know i'm struggling to settle my forwards.
- Aug 15, 2011
- 23,831
- 8,408
- AFL Club
- Essendon
- Other Teams
- Port Adelaide
Hes a really really tough one, so tough i change my mind on him every day. Im really massive on Lewis and Martin though, so he doesn't get a gig. I might lose my balls and throw Lewis because not many other people will pick him and to be safe go Buddy. But id prefer to be slightly unique. I also prefer Robinson instead of Buddy all 3 have R13 byes.
Will he be a top 5-7 forward - Yes
Do you want him in your side come end of year - yes
He plays 6 top 6 teams in the first 6 rounds but than his next 6 are all bottom 8 teams and he goes into the bye with a pretty easy run, so he could be expensive after the bye week and as you said from rounds 4-6 he actually does okay against those top 8 teams anyway. The eagles dont really have an ideal match up Mckenzie goes to him, Grundy may not be fit be he goes to Buddy when he plays Sydney and against the saints its probably gonna be Sam Fisher who is a loose checking defender and Buddy seems to rack up stats further up the ground on him as Fisher tends to drop off and be loose.
Im not gonna pick him because hes got too many R13 forward prems ahead of him on my list. Ill just hope he has a s**t game against Port, North or Brissy leading into the bye round. Than gets shutdown against the blues in R14 than i bring the Buddy meister in against GWS if hes names to play. Thats my plan.
bombermick
Norm Smith Medallist
If you're just going for a league win he seems a good pick, getting rid of two hard games before head-to-head starts. Not picking him seems logical, but could backfire spectacularly.
Total points are, for mine a bit misleading. Franklin has dropped games mainly due to suspension, and only dropped one game due to injury last year. If he can stop getting reported he will most likely play 20-22 games. Furthermore, you should be developing bench depth anyway to cover if, say a player does get suspended/injured. Given Franklin missed games in the latter part of the year, most dters would have cashed in one of their cows to fill the spot of him anyway.
Overall, what makes Goodes a possibly better option than Franklin is a) price, b) Sydney's draw, c) the team he plays for and d) Hawthorn's early draw.
Bombers_Insider
Team Captain
cue for all the Buddy talk after his Training run today
with his 100+ pt game (from DT Talk)
id be more worried about the hawks defense if Buddy was easy killing them for 3 qrts (Buddy slacked off in last qrt)
Lewis sounded like he was doing a bit today could be a nice pick up
Gunston kicked 4 but priced at $303,400 awkward price
with his 100+ pt game (from DT Talk)id be more worried about the hawks defense if Buddy was easy killing them for 3 qrts (Buddy slacked off in last qrt)
Lewis sounded like he was doing a bit today could be a nice pick up
Gunston kicked 4 but priced at $303,400 awkward price
Wheedus
Team Captain
Yes, I suspect Buddy's run through the midfield was just a trial of Plan B or probably Plan C with a an opportunity to look at Gunstan at FF. Nice option though and may be used during the year if Buddy is being well held.
agreed in fact now that its been proven albeit a practise match that he can in fact play in the midfield so much for his hard start to the year i.m.o the recruitment of gunston is defitnetly going to help buddy because had gunston been at hawthorn last year they would have more than likely won the grand final i.m.o
