List Mgmt. Father/Son re-visited

[didaksrightfoot]

They won't understand because it's needlessly complicated.

The AFL should nominate what a father/son is worth, not other clubs with ulterior motives (Hi Mick).

Let's use the Darcy Moore case as an example;

The AFL would come out and say Darcy is worth a top 10 pick, if we refuse to match that "rating" he goes into the draft pool, simple really.

But the AFL should not be the one making that judgement... they are not in the business of scouting/valuing players - that's what the market is for.

The current system allows the market to set his value, with the F/S team getting a bit of a discount.

As you say - there is always the possiblity that another club would use to force us to use our higher pick... but unless they actually think he is worth their pick, it's a pretty big gamble to take - because we could always just decide that what they are offering is too high, and just let them take him.

 

[ottoman]

Thanks Anzacday and MyManLynch for the explanations.
Now that I know this I am more confident that we will get him as a second rounder.
The way I see it (and correct me if I am wrong) but lets say I ranked him as the 5th best prospect in the draft. I may still not nominate him at 7 because there is a chance that one of the guys that I rank 1-4 may not be taken. Other clubs have their own priorities so may view players differently according to their specific needs.

 

[Apex36]

They won't understand because it's needlessly complicated.

The AFL should nominate what a father/son is worth, not other clubs with ulterior motives (Hi Mick).

Let's use the Darcy Moore case as an example;

The AFL would come out and say Darcy is worth a top 10 pick, if we refuse to match that "rating" he goes into the draft pool, simple really.

It's really not that complicated, and other clubs run the risk of seriously hurting themselves if they risk bidding on Darcy if they don't rate him that highly.

And who in the AFL is qualified to determine what Darcy's market value is? There is just as much chance of some spiteful twat at AFL house trying to screw the pies as there is from other club recruiters.

 

[MightyPies1]

I'd put money on Carlton nominating him.

Bung of campaigners that they are.

 

[Axl the great]

The whole thing is crap and should go back to the way it was when you could give a late pick for a father/son.

 

[sr36]

Thanks Anzacday and MyManLynch for the explanations.
Now that I know this I am more confident that we will get him as a second rounder.
The way I see it (and correct me if I am wrong) but lets say I ranked him as the 5th best prospect in the draft. I may still not nominate him at 7 because there is a chance that one of the guys that I rank 1-4 may not be taken. Other clubs have their own priorities so may view players differently according to their specific needs.

Yep. I'd assume that the more professional clubs would have used previous drafts to work out what each pick is worth in regards to each club's individual rankings. Eg. pick 20 is likely to get you the 12th guy on your list. Pick 40 is likely to get you the 21st guy on your list, etc.

 

[Unknown Identity]

If Carlton looks like the only team that will nominate Moore.
Get McGuire to make up with Mick, we'll give you Lumumba for a token pick for you not to nominate him. I'm sure this falls under draft tampering but Pick 8 as well as Moore would be a huge win.

 

[JOELY]

can we get this stickied? i dont think i can take another person thinking we can easily cheat the system and trade out of first rounder!

 

[Hva sher a]

If Carlton looks like the only team that will nominate Moore.
Get McGuire to make up with Mick, we'll give you Lumumba for a token pick for you not to nominate him. I'm sure this falls under draft tampering but Pick 8 as well as Moore would be a huge win.

Which is the reason why Carlton will strategise and force us to use pick 8. They obviously know we rate him so why should they allow us to have pick 8 AND grab Moore with the 2nd rounder? It's a no lose situation for them.
To be honest if the roles were reversed I'd be disappointed if we didn't adopt this tactic.

The only reason we'd pass on Moore is if there is another player we rate higher than him who we forecast as falling to 8.

 

[Bard]

Which is the reason why Carlton will strategise and force us to use pick 8. They obviously know we rate him so why should they allow us to have pick 8 AND grab Moore with the 2nd rounder? It's a no lose situation for them.
To be honest if the roles were reversed I'd be disappointed if we didn't adopt this tactic.

The only reason we'd pass on Moore is if there is another player we rate higher than him who we forecast as falling to 8.

You'd want to be 100% sure he'd be falling to 8. If there's even the slightest bit of doubt I'd personally rather they picked Moore.

 

[Hva sher a]

You'd want to be 100% sure he'd be falling to 8. If there's even the slightest bit of doubt I'd personally rather they picked Moore.

It is this doubt Carlton will be banking on to force our hand.
If Darcy ends up being our CHB for the next decade then pick 8 is more than justified anyway.

 

[Anzacday]

Bump

 

[TradeDraft]

Bump

Need to be Stickied until the Father/Son thing is done in a Month

 

[Baltimore Jack]

Bump

Because many still don't understand it

 

[BlackWhiteBlood]

dumb question,
are we able to trade pick 8 for a player, making our first draft pick occur in the 2nd round. And even if Moore is nominated in the first 7 picks we can still get him. Or since we traded away our 1st rounder do we lose this privilege.

 

[MyManLynch]

dumb question,
are we able to trade pick 8 for a player, making our first draft pick occur in the 2nd round. And even if Moore is nominated in the first 7 picks we can still get him. Or since we traded away our 1st rounder do we lose this privilege.

No. F/S nomination & bidding process happens just before trade period commences (on Monday 6th Oct).

 

[BlackWhiteBlood]

No. F/S nomination & bidding process happens just before trade period commences (on Monday 6th Oct).

thanks, it is all clear now.

it really is simple

 

[THATSGOLD]

No team would be stupid enough to give up a top ten pick for a player they dont want. If Carlton nominate him it will because they rate him, not to piss Collingwood off.

If anybody nominates him ahead of us, I'd prefer it to be a team below us in the ladder, ie with a pick ahead of us. That will effectively move us up the draft by one, ie we wil be "live" pick 7.

No team wouldn't rate him and therefore would nominate him.

 

[Timmy from Thomastown]

No team wouldn't rate him and therefore would nominate him.

Not sure what you mean by that but media reports have the two teams ahead of us in the draft (Dogs and Blues) as likely to nominate him. He is almost certain to cost us pick 8 or 9. We cant only hope he drops to second round for us but hope is all we have.

 

[Lefthanded]

Thanks Anzacday and MyManLynch for the explanations.
Now that I know this I am more confident that we will get him as a second rounder.
The way I see it (and correct me if I am wrong) but lets say I ranked him as the 5th best prospect in the draft. I may still not nominate him at 7 because there is a chance that one of the guys that I rank 1-4 may not be taken. Other clubs have their own priorities so may view players differently according to their specific needs.

You are correct but I'd add that it's not just the possibility of a slider that works in our favour but that clubs with picks 1-7 may want to use their pick in a trade eg for P Ryder.

 

[Timmy from Thomastown]

You are correct but I'd add that it's not just the possibility of a slider that works in our favour but that clubs with picks 1-7 may want to use their pick in a trade eg for P Ryder.

Quite true except I doubt Ryder is on the Dogs or Blues radar. I doubt the teams with picks 1 to 4 will bid for Moore and risk losing a quality pick. So that leaves the Suns who probably arent in the race for Ryder either.

 

[Lefthanded]

Quite true except I doubt Ryder is on the Dogs or Blues radar. I doubt the teams with picks 1 to 4 will bid for Moore and risk losing a quality pick. So that leaves the Suns who probably arent in the race for Ryder either.

Ryder was an example because he's been in the news as wanting out of Dons and is a quality player who could attract a top draft pick. Someone else that is on Dogs, Blues, Suns radar could tie up their pick so they don't bid was the point I was trying to convey. Scenario could be that Giants (have been linked to Ryder) want a high pick for some of their players (1 or a combo) that allegedly want out eg Jaksch, O'Rourke, S Frost. Trades could even involve 3 clubs so each get what they want.

As long as clubs are looking for a slider or a trade and don't bid pick 1-7 I am over the moon. Alternatively we take Moore with pick 8ish (allowing for FA compo), develop him well, keep him relatively injury free and I'm happy.

 

[MyManLynch]

There is a possibility that picks 5, 6 & 7 (Dogs, Blues, GC) have other priorities for their picks (draft or trade), however they are also probably also quite happy to land Moore with their picks (if we were to pass).
Hence, we will be very very lucky if by some twist of fate, the top 7 picks do not bid for him.
I'm locking in pick 8 for Moore & if we luck out then fantastic.

 

[didaksrightfoot]

There is a possibility that picks 5, 6 & 7 (Dogs, Blues, GC) have other priorities for their picks (draft or trade), however they are also probably also quite happy to land Moore with their picks (if we were to pass).
Hence, we will be very very lucky if by some twist of fate, the top 7 picks do not bid for him.
I'm locking in pick 8 for Moore & if we luck out then fantastic.

It's that bolded bit that I'm not sure of.
I haven't looked much at the list of draft prospects, but it sounds like there are other KPP's rated higher than Moore in the draft. It depends on where each club rates him, and if they think someone they rate higher might still be available at their pick. (Does their clubs 'gain' of forcing us to use our first pick, outweight the potential 'loss' of them taking him when there might end up being someone they rate higher still on the board?) I don't know the answer to that.
I accept that, with the extra media attention, a club ahead of us will more than likely bid, and that there will be a heap of pressure on us to take him with our first pick, even if we don't rate him as a top 10 prospect... but the thing is, if we don't rate him that highly, I think we should pass. (despite how much backlash there will be from the fans)

The F/S selections adds another level of complexity to the system.
I've always thought that they should just do it during the draft itself - take out the uncertainty of guessing who might be available. It would be benificial both for the team making the intial bid, and for the team deciding whether or not to match it. (And I don't think you would need that much extra time for teams to make their decisions)

 

[Albert Ross]

I
The F/S selections adds another level of complexity to the system.
I've always thought that they should just do it during the draft itself - take out the uncertainty of guessing who might be available. It would be benificial both for the team making the intial bid, and for the team deciding whether or not to match it. (And I don't think you would need that much extra time for teams to make their decisions)

So Collingwood trade away their first 5 picks. Someone bids pick 18 for Moore and Collingwood match with pick 70? Father-son has to be before trades or the draft order changes, while clubs still have all their picks.