Review Good vs West Coast, R13 2023

[NSolis]

Dawson is a senior player, and the team captain. He wasn't developed at our club. He demanded his insertion when the club continued to play him in the back pocket, and had the leverage to achieve it.

Sloane did his knee last year, there is precisely zero evidence that we'd prefer Berry to him if both available, if anything this year proves the opposite. We picked Crouch for recall this year, after recalling him numerous times last year. We've far from written off breaking glass on that 'solution'.

Repeatedly suggesting that we're doing the same thing as Port does not make it true. The numbers alone captured at this point of time do not reveal the full story. Our players CBA attendances are trending down, the less than golden oldies players trending upwards. The circumstances of the two teams were dramatically different, and remain so. They've got an embarrassment of riches in the midfield, we've got sweet * all, and yet they still have found a way to get JHF sixty percent attendances this year.

It would be far more reasonable to take a measured approach to midfield exposure if you had a star midfield already, than it is when you have a midfield that has spent longer in time stinking than the average AFL career.

I never said we'd prefer Sloane to Berry. As I said in my first post on the topic, since this time last year Berry has effectively been replaced by Sloane. However, I think this reflects Berry's performance more than an arbitrary preference for experienced players, given he's been dropped from the side completely rather than shunted to another role. Not every young midfielder is going to make it, and unlike some of the other young mids we have I don't think Berry would particularly excel outside of the midfield. This was a complaint people had last year as well - that he was being asked to play out of position in the forward line when he wasn't in the midfield, and was pretty ineffective in that role.

In my opinion, the club's view is:

• Laird and Dawson are our best mids and are being prioritised for midfield roles, with the other main midfield spots being split between Sloane, Keays mostly as a tagger/defensive mid, and the younger players.
• Rachele, Pedlar and possibly Soligo (his place in the side is certainly less secure) have a big future in the midfield, but are lacking the physical traits at this time to sustain continued midfield minutes. The goal is to get them exposure to the midfield without harming the performance of the team, by rotating them through there while they have a primary role elsewhere on the field where they can still be useful.

You seem to view variation in the CBAs going to our juniors throughout the year (Rachele down, Pedlar up) as reflecting a broad policy of preferring senior players in which Pedlar is a recent exception, but what they've done with these guys across the last two seasons fits perfectly well with managing midfield minutes based on a variety of feedback mechanisms the club would have access to, as well as gameday concerns like having Keays in a midfield tagging role some weeks and not others. The latter has certainly impacted Soligo's midfield minutes against Brisbane and Gold Coast, for example.

I predict that Pedlar and Rachele will have significantly more midfield minutes next year, unless they are injured. If they don't, by all means come back and say I told you so, but I suspect you also believe this is the direction the club is heading.

I also think this gradual increase in midfield minutes is a pretty standard feature of youth development across the AFL, particularly with young players who don't have the tank or other physical traits yet for prolonged midfield exposure. JHF, Walsh etc. are exceptions rather than the standard, and Rozee and Butters represent an obvious example of this, which is why I pointed to them, not because the clubs are totally identical in every way. Speaking broadly, midfielders starting their careers playing a lot of minutes either across half-forward or half-back before transitioning to become fulltime on-ballers is very common. Far more common than these 'top 5 draft pick is a full time midfielder from day 1' scenarios.

 

[Southerntakeover]

Oh right. We don't have a policy of preferring senior players, we just think that anything other than their complete monopoly in midfield time will harm the performance of the team. Got it.

Appeals to authority cloaked in faux-technical language are no more persuasive than selectively chosen statistics. If you're not prepared to be convinced that the graduated increase isn't happening from the fact that it is no way supported by the actual numbers when presented in full, we don't need to go through a charade about how this must be based upon 'feedback mechanisms the club would have access too'. Oh boy, how comforting. The hidden master plan, that never plays out in reality but is def totally coming any time now.

 

[Southerntakeover]

The fact we haven’t got a generational, 2nd year Brownlow contender on our list to play in the midfield isn’t a problem of ours, especially when said player was available to literally no other club

Look at Phillipou, who most (inc myself) wanted with our first pick had we not traded for Rankine - only 16 CBAs for the season thus far (and it’s not like the Saints midfield is world class). If he were on our list, many would be begging Nicks to give him 30-40% CBA time a game, but it just isn’t realistic. Point is, many prospects take a bit of time

That said, I do think we’re lacking one bonafide top tier mid prospect to add to the mix, hopefully we can find one with our first this year

For efficiency sake I'm just going to start skipping to the last sentence in each of your posts where you begrudgingly concede that I'm right

 

[Danger in Texas]

For efficiency sake I'm just going to start skipping to the last sentence in each of your posts where you begrudgingly concede that I'm right

It’s called having a balanced view point, maybe try it sometime rather than stubbornly sticking to one side of the coin

 

[Southerntakeover]

It’s called having a balanced view point, maybe try it sometime rather than stubbornly sticking to one side of the coin

It's not important to be balanced, it's important to be right.

 

[Danger in Texas]

It's not important to be balanced, it's important to be right.

It’s not being ‘right’ more than it is being ‘self-assured’

Just because you’re dead-set on an opinion doesn’t mean it’s all ‘fact’

 

[NSolis]

Oh right. We don't have a policy of preferring senior players, we just think that anything other than their complete monopoly in midfield time will harm the performance of the team. Got it.

Appeals to authority cloaked in faux-technical language are no more persuasive than selectively chosen statistics. If you're not prepared to be convinced that the graduated increase isn't happening from the fact that it is no way supported by the actual numbers when presented in full, we don't need to go through a charade about how this must be based upon 'feedback mechanisms the club would have access too'. Oh boy, how comforting. The hidden master plan, that never plays out in reality but is def totally coming any time now.

Nope, not a complete monopoly, as evidenced by the fact that the players I mentioned I have significantly increased midfield workloads compared to last year. But yes, winning games of football is the goal of a football team and I think if we had Rachele in for 60% CBAs he'd be struggling hugely and the team would be worse for it. Assuming the club agrees it makes sense they'd be managing his midfield time. Pedlar I'm not so sure about, I think they were very cautious with him at the start of the year because of his injury history but he might be able to do more. You're welcome to disagree but there's absolutely nothing in the data that suggests the management of Rachele and Pedlar is anything different from the obvious comparison to Butters and Rozee as 2nd year players.

Obviously this is going nowhere - let's see how the CBAs for Rachele and Pedlar look next year. I am confident they will be higher, and both of them will be primarily midfielders in a couple of years, on a similar trajectory to comparable midfielders from across the AFL.

edit: Phillipou, by the way, is a good comparison. He's a high draft pick comparable to Rachele or Pedlar picked up by a club in a similar position to us (missed finals last year, chance of making it this year but not a contender). He's barely seen any centre bounces. Not sure if you think St. Kilda have some sort of anti-youth policy too but it's not a surprise at all that he's not getting CBAs, because lots of midfielders aren't really cut out for it in their first year or two, and he's not an obvious exception to that rule in the JHF/Walsh style. Nevertheless I am very confident, as I'm sure St. Kilda fans are, that his permanent role in the future will be as a midfielder. He'll get more time on ball as he develops over the next couple of years.

 

[AFC979810]

I have no idea how anyone can argue that we haven't reverted back to a more experienced midfield mix by using Sloane and Keays more and Rachele and Soligo less.

Only question is why.... Two possible answers:

1. Fitness for Soligo and Rachele isn't there.

2. Nicks isn't that smart and is reverting back to old habits.

To be honest - I wouldn't be surprised if either answer was correct.

 

[AFC979810]

I think that's accentuating the negative and completely ignoring counterpoints. If we were all about squeezing young players out of the side to benefit senior incumbents, why did we play Berry so much last year? Why is Dawson in the middle instead of picking Crouch? He's playing SANFL and racking up touches each week after all, they could easily have Dawson on the wing instead of Sholl/Jones and play Crouch as the main CBA guy like the first half of last year.

Nicks has tried Crouch far too many times. Since rd 7 of 22 - Matt Crouch has been omitted 4 separate times. I don't think anybody could justify picking Crouch again.

 

[WaynesWorld19]

Oh right. We don't have a policy of preferring senior players, we just think that anything other than their complete monopoly in midfield time will harm the performance of the team. Got it.

Appeals to authority cloaked in faux-technical language are no more persuasive than selectively chosen statistics. If you're not prepared to be convinced that the graduated increase isn't happening from the fact that it is no way supported by the actual numbers when presented in full, we don't need to go through a charade about how this must be based upon 'feedback mechanisms the club would have access too'. Oh boy, how comforting. The hidden master plan, that never plays out in reality but is def totally coming any time now.

Just admit you're wrong on the topic of midfield transition .....you're wanting 2nd year players to be given bulk CBA's

Following your line of argument .....you should be seriously questioning why we're playing 33 YO Tex Walker as the go to KPF ?.....must mean Nicks doesn't want to play Gollant, or doesn't want to have Fog as the main FWD

NSolis is spot on with his assessment of the midfield transition ......and is it wrong to want to win games now, after 4 years of rebuild

 

[Mostyn]

It's peak Adelaide Board to find a series of things to complain about, after the 2nd youngest side in the comp kicks the highest score of the last seven years and wins by a record margin.

 

[WaynesWorld19]

edit: Phillipou, by the way, is a good comparison. He's a high draft pick comparable to Rachele or Pedlar picked up by a club in a similar position to us (missed finals last year, chance of making it this year but not a contender). He's barely seen any centre bounces. Not sure if you think St. Kilda have some sort of anti-youth policy too but it's not a surprise at all that he's not getting CBAs, because lots of midfielders aren't really cut out for it in their first year or two, and he's not an obvious exception to that rule in the JHF/Walsh style. Nevertheless I am very confident, as I'm sure St. Kilda fans are, that his permanent role in the future will be as a midfielder. He'll get more time on ball as he develops over the next couple of years.

And also Hobbs .....didn't even play the first 5 games of the season .....and his CBA's are spasmodic, getting more this week, due to Merrett being tagged and moved FWD

So what does that say about Hobbs .....nothing ....another 2nd year player, simply doing a traditional AFL apprenticeship

Both Phillipou, Hobbs will be serious MIDS in the future ....same as Matthew Johnson, who's being forced to play WING

Josh Ward, pick #7 , another 2nd year MID .....is getting less CBA's than Soligo & Rachelle, in a rebuilding HAW side
Not unusual

 

[Southerntakeover]

Nope, not a complete monopoly, as evidenced by the fact that the players I mentioned I have significantly increased midfield workloads compared to last year. But yes, winning games of football is the goal of a football team and I think if we had Rachele in for 60% CBAs he'd be struggling hugely and the team would be worse for it. Assuming the club agrees it makes sense they'd be managing his midfield time. Pedlar I'm not so sure about, I think they were very cautious with him at the start of the year because of his injury history but he might be able to do more. You're welcome to disagree but there's absolutely nothing in the data that suggests the management of Rachele and Pedlar is anything different from the obvious comparison to Butters and Rozee as 2nd year players.

Obviously this is going nowhere - let's see how the CBAs for Rachele and Pedlar look next year. I am confident they will be higher, and both of them will be primarily midfielders in a couple of years, on a similar trajectory to comparable midfielders from across the AFL.

edit: Phillipou, by the way, is a good comparison. He's a high draft pick comparable to Rachele or Pedlar picked up by a club in a similar position to us (missed finals last year, chance of making it this year but not a contender). He's barely seen any centre bounces. Not sure if you think St. Kilda have some sort of anti-youth policy too but it's not a surprise at all that he's not getting CBAs, because lots of midfielders aren't really cut out for it in their first year or two, and he's not an obvious exception to that rule in the JHF/Walsh style. Nevertheless I am very confident, as I'm sure St. Kilda fans are, that his permanent role in the future will be as a midfielder. He'll get more time on ball as he develops over the next couple of years.

There's a difference between you constantly claiming to have proved something with cherry picked statistics, and having actually proven it. Soligo is currently attending a lower percentage of CBA than he did at the end of last year. Rachelle is dropping, as he did last year. Both are now receiving next to no attendances. They are not receiving significantly increased workloads, that's just you refusing to engage with the evidence.

The point isn't better made by more more cherry picked examples from this years draft. Other players taken early in the draft- Ashcroft, 41%. Wardlaw 55%. Humphrey has played 61% and 41% the last two weeks. Mackenzie 23%. Ginbey 49%.

But hey, this board tells me that young players will be destroyed for life if we ever did anything different.

 

[Southerntakeover]

It's peak Adelaide Board to find a series of things to complain about, after the 2nd youngest side in the comp kicks the highest score of the last seven years and wins by a record margin.

It's peak Crows fan to think that thrashing the worst team in football a week after conceding nine consecutive goals is party time.

 

[Southerntakeover]

Just admit you're wrong on the topic of midfield transition .....you're wanting 2nd year players to be given bulk CBA's

Following your line of argument .....you should be seriously questioning why we're playing 33 YO Tex Walker as the go to KPF ?.....must mean Nicks doesn't want to play Gollant, or doesn't want to have Fog as the main FWD

NSolis is spot on with his assessment of the midfield transition ......and is it wrong to want to win games now, after 4 years of rebuild

You should probably just sit out any conversation that requires a coherent expression of view.

 

[Southerntakeover]

Nicks has tried Crouch far too many times. Since rd 7 of 22 - Matt Crouch has been omitted 4 separate times. I don't think anybody could justify picking Crouch again.

Want to bet that they don't try?

 

[Southerntakeover]

I have no idea how anyone can argue that we haven't reverted back to a more experienced midfield mix by using Sloane and Keays more and Rachele and Soligo less.

Only question is why.... Two possible answers:

1. Fitness for Soligo and Rachele isn't there.

2. Nicks isn't that smart and is reverting back to old habits.

To be honest - I wouldn't be surprised if either answer was correct.

I don't think it starts and stops with those two. It's astounding just how quickly this board pivoted from 'Berry is a potential A grader' to 'Berry isn't AFL quality' to support our preferring Sloane over him at the selection table.

So we sunk a significant number of games as a priority over the last two years over a guy that doesn't have a future? Shouldn't that be the subject of criticism?

Or, as I think is more probable, we still think he's part of the future, but we had no selection patience for a younger player compared to the almost endless do-overs available to our experienced players?

 

[Slippery Pete]

For efficiency sake I'm just going to start skipping to the last sentence in each of your posts where you begrudgingly concede that I'm right

 

[PeterSalt]

I don't think it starts and stops with those two. It's astounding just how quickly this board pivoted from 'Berry is a potential A grader' to 'Berry isn't AFL quality' to support our preferring Sloane over him at the selection table.

So we sunk a significant number of games as a priority over the last two years over a guy that doesn't have a future? Shouldn't that be the subject of criticism?

Or, as I think is more probable, we still think he's part of the future, but we had no selection patience for a younger player compared to the almost endless do-overs available to our experienced players?

At this point in time I don't think Berry is a potential A grader. He is AFL quality though. He just hasn't been in great form. That'll change, as it will with Schoenberg.

 

[CrowBloke]

I've been reading the discussion re: youth development in the midfield vs. the notion that Nicks et al prefer the senior players (Dawson/ Laird/ Sloane/ Keays) to developing youth, with great interest.
There are those who use (I should say "resort to") sarcasm and ridicule, thinking that strengthens their argument. It doesn't, and often weakens the several other good points that they make:

Oh right. We don't have a policy of preferring senior players, we just think that anything other than their complete monopoly in midfield time will harm the performance of the team. Got it.

Laird/Dawson/Sloane/Keays do not have a "complete monopoly" of midfield time. It's Nicks who decides where they play and he has clearly rotated youth through there depending on their fitness, capabilities and actual effect.
Others remain calm (NSolis especially) on the basis that opinions are just an expression of a point-of-view, based on subjective beliefs about what works for the team:

It’s called having a balanced view point, maybe try it sometime rather than stubbornly sticking to one side of the coin

but this next post shows why expressing an opinion and backing it up with info/facts/data will never sway its author:

It's not important to be balanced, it's important to be right.

I'm not sure that he means "it's important for Nicks to get it right" --- I suspect he's saying that it's important that he is "right".
That might sound like I am having a go Southerntakeover. I'm not, because a lot of his posting is very interesting and can be insightful. It's just that a balanced and objective approach will never sway someone who just wants to be right.
I'll try to explain further:
There's a lot of heated differences of opinion recently about Ben Keays, Sloane and also Sholl (Tex was a hot topic as well, with many saying he was too old, too slow and hindering the development of the other tall forwards, but they've gone quiet lately --- 28 + 10 goals will do that).
The poll above is interesting. Exactly 50% think Smith played well (I wasn't one of them) and many votes are close to that 50-50 split.
Re: Sholl, many think he has a job to do and does it well. I think Sholl is slow, physically weak, gets rag-dolled easily, and is contact averse: ineffective when the heat is on. Many disagree, which is fine, because Nicks & Co, have the final say anyway and our opinions carry no weight in the matter.

It's just discussion/banter/points-of-view ie Opinions.

Fwiw, I used to think that Nicks was under-using our talented youth and hindering the midfield-development of Rachele/Soligo/Pedlar and to a certain extent Rankine by resorting to the favoured Laird/Dawson/Sloane/Keays combo.
I'm now of the opinion that he's being very patient with their development, as many other Clubs have been with theirs ie I've been swayed by the very good, clear, objective and well-explained posting of NSolis , Danger in Texas , and WaynesWorld19 and others. The collective weight of their posts has changed my mind.
Very few 19-22 year old players hit the ground running, as mids. Some posters have said (heatedly) that Nicks should have given Rachele/Soligo/Pedlar more CBAs in the second half of last week's annihilation of WCE. I think it's clear that he was actually going for the jugular to wring every drop of % that he could get out of the win. Our opinions aside, what Nicks did, worked.
According to the two Coaches (whose own opinions matter more than ours, because of their jobs and experience) our best 4 players after the standout Walker were --- guess whom?
Dawson/Laird/Sloane/Keays .
Yet two of the latter are consistently criticised, unfairly in my opinion, because their critics think they are rubbish with virtually no redeeming features, while ignoring their actual contributions.

Opinions are neither right nor wrong.
I'm pretty sure I'm right about that . Uhhh, wait ...

 

[Crow_Magnon]

How do you not get the criticism? We won by 120 points and gave most of opportunities to Laird, Dawson, Keays.

This was 100% the week to give midfield minutes to those you want to trial in the middle.

A fair point, but I do think % was a concern, and the fact that both Rachele and Soligo had been tailing off in form over the past few weeks. I think they'll get a few decent minutes in the midfield after the break, and they're freshened up a little!

 

[CrowBloke]

P.S. (afterthought) I said above:
"Very few 19-22 year old players hit the ground running, as mids."

That applies to all positions, really.
A recent, stunning exception has been our Max Michalanney who looks like he's played AFL level footy for years.
Dawson was a great get. Rankine, too.
Rachele, Pedlar, Soligo are showing signs that they will be elite.

But Michalanney --- WOW --- he started like he fit in straight away and is getting better by the week.
He's a ripper.

 

[Crow_Magnon]

Yep, can Tex be adjusted up for all the windy shitholes we’ve played in?

Agreed, and can anyone who won the Coleman in 2020 be marked down for their games against us, given we were putrid that year?

 

[BucketsNj]

Militantly unthinking

Are you suggesting it wasn’t his idea?
In at least 2 interviews he’s stated it was his idea.

I think what they've both said, is that it was something they discussed and wanted to implement at some point. And it was Dawson who went into Nick's office before the Port game and said, I think we should do it this weekend.

 

[beartoo]

Was at the game. The noise from the crowd in the last quarter every time the ball was near Tex was unbelievable. Probably the loudest I've ever heard.

You weren't there for the preliminary against Geelong or memory is short?

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