List Mgmt. Jarrad Jansen - Traded to BL for Future 3Rd pick

[Go Hoops]

Why the feck would he want to go to that rabble? Wake up Jarrad! Premiership medals are what it's all about. Hang in there.

 

[Lana]

Agree with the crux of your post, that it comes down to points for the Lions, but don't forget they've probably got Redden heading out as well.

Forgot about that, I think you'd at the very least get an end of first rounder for Redden, I'm think that if we get S.Selwood from wce they could trade their compensation pick to Brisbane for Redden. Which wouldn't be good for my proposed scenario as it means that Brisbane would value them at market value and not the cost of their draft points. However it could free up some of the other picks that would have otherwise been spent on matching a bid, it depends on how many players Brisbane is expecting to draft.

10lana - a very interesting read. Well thought out and presented.

Do you think having a points system will help clubs trade? It is more objective.

As you say the parameters may need tweaking a bit for future years, but this could help grease wheels.
A club can use the points to demonstrate to their harshest critics (their supporters) that there is merit in a completed trade when it may look to some as unders/overs.

I think the points allocated per pick don't reflect market value of the pick, the picks are only worth those points when a team intends to cash those picks in for f/s or academy players, when they intend to use it for that purpose their trades will reflect those point values. But in all other cases they will be guidelines, teams will try to use them during the negotiations when it suits them. And ignore them when they are unfavorable. I think that duel layered system will help facilitate more trades, as it provides a different way in which teams can value a transaction that can only go through it both sides perceive that they are better off after the trade.

 

[Farmer2Goggin]

This is a nice concise evaluation I would agree with.

GFC responded to that problem by trying him down back first then later up forward. I had a couple of "sit up my seat" moments when a young bloke took strong contested overhead marks. I think v Box Hill or Blues late in the year.
Till that point I was a bit worried he didn't have enough to offer to play AFL. Those marks and a couple of nice lead ups had me rethinking..... maybe a year in VFL doing this would see him find a niche.

If a Brisbane scout saw that (or has/will see footage) I think he could attract a trade (eg pick upgrade).

I don't think Geelong owe JJ anything so they may force him into the draft if nothing of value is offered.

If it was the Box Hill game his work below his knees was terrific - clean hands and found a target with the handball
Also had a rushed ping from 60M which was on line but bounced wide from a couple of metres out.

 

[catswhiskers]

If it was the Box Hill game his work below his knees was terrific - clean hands and found a target with the handball
Also had a rushed ping from 60M which was on line but bounced wide from a couple of metres out.

Yeah JJ had a few really good quality quarters over the season. If he could stay involved all game - watch out. Thats why I would want him to stay but failing that we get something in return.

 

[Teriyakicat]

This is a nice concise evaluation I would agree with.

GFC responded to that problem by trying him down back first then later up forward. I had a couple of "sit up my seat" moments when a young bloke took strong contested overhead marks. I think v Box Hill or Blues late in the year.
Till that point I was a bit worried he didn't have enough to offer to play AFL. Those marks and a couple of nice lead ups had me rethinking..... maybe a year in VFL doing this would see him find a niche.

If a Brisbane scout saw that (or has/will see footage) I think he could attract a trade (eg pick upgrade).

I don't think Geelong owe JJ anything so they may force him into the draft if nothing of value is offered.

I think one of the articles that's been posted actually said that Brisbane had been looking at him during the season... sounds like they've been pissing in his pocket over the past few months.

"We've been tracking his progress this year and he's developed nicely," Lions list manager Peter Schwab told afl.com.au yesterday. "He's a young guy looking for an opportunity. We hope we can give him that opportunity to develop in our midfield."

http://www.sunshinecoastdaily.com.au/news/lions-to-pounce-on-big-cat/2783352/

 

[ShaunWDT]

What do people think Aish would be worth? Jansen/Aish with an exchange of picks a chance?

 

[manboob]

What do people think Aish would be worth? Jansen/Aish with an exchange of picks a chance?

Why not? or help he get to the Crows if its helps us elsewhere. Pies have ruled themselves out and it would hurt our now poor standing in Radelaide.

 

[whatboutbob]

What do people think Aish would be worth? Jansen/Aish with an exchange of picks a chance?

Good luck with that.

 

[thegerman]

Why not? or help he get to the Crows if its helps us elsewhere. Pies have ruled themselves out and it would hurt our now poor standing in Radelaide.

This could be a good option, meaning that some picks could be held onto.

 

[ButterMill]

Such a tough player to value. Was he pick 30? Has had two preseason. Hasn't been a bust yet. Hasn't dominated. Has just been steadily developing. I think he is worth more now than when he came, but on the market, with the players flying around at the minute he is worth less than the pick we used.

We know bigger bodies can take time. I'd like him to stay. Otherwise trade him for a similarly talented player. Whoever that is, don't know Brisbane's depth well enough.

 

[jnrburger]

Such a tough player to value. Was he pick 30? Has had two preseason. Hasn't been a bust yet. Hasn't dominated. Has just been steadily developing. I think he is worth more now than when he came, but on the market, with the players flying around at the minute he is worth less than the pick we used.

We know bigger bodies can take time. I'd like him to stay. Otherwise trade him for a similarly talented player. Whoever that is, don't know Brisbane's depth well enough.

We took him at pick 36 - so Brisbane's 3rd round pick, which should be somewhere around 40, would be a fair enough deal, given we've put a couple of years development into him and Brisbane have publicly stated they've been watching him.

 

[manboob]

We took him at pick 36 - so Brisbane's 3rd round pick, which should be somewhere around 40, would be a fair enough deal, given we've put a couple of years development into him and Brisbane have publicly stated they've been watching him.

He'd also be good steak-knives too.

 

[jnrburger]

He'd also be good steak-knives too.

Next year's first round pick plus Jansen for......... Taylor? Happy to give that a try.

 

[strauchnyy]

Next year's first round pick plus Jansen for......... Taylor? Happy to give that a try.

No way.

Taylor is the least damaging player of all time.

Jansen plus our second for Brisbanes second.

 

[Turbocat]

Brisbane trades this trade period have less to do with the actual draft picks and more to the amount of points attached to those picks since they have two first round bids to match which will wipe out there 2 and 3 round picks

Assuming no priority picks/free agents and other academy players other than Brisbane to keep it simple

Brisbane have picks
2,20,38,56,72

They have two highly rated academy players Keays and Hipwood
They have Luenbereger about to depart as a RFA they'll be either pick 19 or pick 21 for him, to be conservative well say that he'll get pick 21

Brisbane have picks
2,20,21,39,57,73

Brisbane will use there 1st round pick on the survivor of Weitering/Schache

Lets say Keays attracts a bid at pick 10 and Hipwood at pick 15
pick 10: 1395 at 80%= 1116
pick 20: 912
pick 21: 878
leaving 674 points, pick 29

Brisbane have picks 29,39,57,73
pick 15: 1112 at 80% = 889.6
pick 29: 653
pick 39: 446
leaving 209.4 points, pick 55

The bids can increase by around 250 points (replace pick 10 bid to pick 7 or replace pick 15 with pick 11 and pick 57 is available)
Brisbane has pick 55,57,73. But at the same time including other teams compensation picks, potential priority picks and bidding might reduce the value of pick such that pick 55 is in fact a much later pick if it exists at all.

Pick 57 is probably going to be the earliest pick we could get. IF we could get them to agree to that value hats when things start to get interesting

pick 57 is worth 182 points and sets the limited behind what Brisbane can trade if it involves moving around earlier picks. Brisbane objective is maintain the value of there picks so they aren't in a worse position to match the two bids

As long the picks being swapped are before pick 57 and the difference in the swap is less than the value of pick 57 they

Under the above assumptions we'd have pick 10,29,45,63,79

Difference between 21 and 29 225 points
Difference between 39 and 45 99 points
pick 63 112 points

Trade would be
21,39 for 29,45, 63 and Jansen
Which gives Jansen a value of 212 points or pick 55.

Original trade scenario Jansen for pick 57
Brisbane
pick 2, Keays, hipwood, pick 73 and Jansen

Geelong gets pick 57

Proposed trade scenario Jansen is valued as pick 55
pick 2, Keays, hipwood, pick 73, -30 points and Jansen

Geelong gets pick 21,39 and loses picks 29,45,63

The proposed scenario is the most optimistic version of a swap of pick for Jansen without compromising Brisbane's position. For the proposed scenario to go through Brisbane would need to have a large enough buffer to be confident that they won't spend point next year unnecessarily. Hopely they are willing to take an additional 30 points deficit on the trade.

Going back to the real world now, Brisbane could do that same deal with any other team, or split the deal in two trade around with 2 teams, it would give us a big leg up but not change there position at all which gives them little incentive to agree to it.

Why is a deal like this even possible, because the weighting of the draft pick over values late picks too much relative to their trade value

Your the man for the DVI no doubt

I do wonder is the confidence level on p10 and p15? It seems there could be 2-3 bids before our first pick based on Gold Coast bidding If one commentator is to be believed. Id suspect the clubs will be touchy feely with others on who will bid.... Keys P10...Gee I don't know he looks a reasonable type maybe we should bid on him etc... but of course if we come to some agreement.....

 

[jnrburger]

No way.

Taylor is the least damaging player of all time.

Jansen plus our second for Brisbanes second.

Has a decent workrate, touch of pace - could serve as a handy forward pocket that could be rotated through midfield - important given reduced interchange. Might need to work on tackling pressure though. A bit Byrnes-esque. Largely irrelevant though, won't happen.

 

[Bobby_]

Has a decent workrate, touch of pace - could serve as a handy forward pocket that could be rotated through midfield - important given reduced interchange. Might need to work on tackling pressure though. A bit Byrnes-esque. Largely irrelevant though, won't happen.

sorry, are you referring to Taylor or Jansen in regards to tackling pressure because that is one of Jansen's best traits. Probably his best asset the tackling.

 

[jnrburger]

sorry, are you referring to Taylor or Jansen in regards to tackling pressure because that is one of Jansen's best traits. Probably his best asset the tackling.

Referring to taylor

 

[Lana]

Your the man for the DVI no doubt

I do wonder is the confidence level on p10 and p15? It seems there could be 2-3 bids before our first pick based on Gold Coast bidding If one commentator is to be believed. Id suspect the clubs will be touchy feely with others on who will bid.... Keys P10...Gee I don't know he looks a reasonable type maybe we should bid on him etc... but of course if we come to some agreement.....

Not particularly high, I'm not a draft guru it was just a ball park estimate based on the phantom drafts so I'm relying on their expertise. As long as the bids are roughly in the same area (off by 1-2 picks either way) then it is alright. Having a few bids earlier could throw it out a little, but when I did those calculations I forgot that Redden is asking for a trade which will probably get them a last first rounder / early second for him which will definitly cover for any uncertainty about the specifics of the bid (short of something ridiculous like bids at pick 5 and 6) and also messes with my concept quite a bit and not in our favour They'll now have the picks available (which is good) but no incentive(more the removal of a what made a trade in our favour be of no consequence to them) to give us a good deal(the bad).

I can't see how an "agreement" on Keays with Brisbane could come about, they aren't going to let us have him for Jansen nor does our threat of bidding mean much to them, if we don't bid someone else will.

 

[Turbocat]

Not particularly high, I'm not a draft guru it was just a ball park estimate based on the phantom drafts so I'm relying on their expertise. As long as the bids are roughly in the same area (off by 1-2 picks either way) then it is alright. Having a few bids earlier could throw it out a little, but when I did those calculations I forgot that Redden is asking for a trade which will probably get them a last first rounder / early second for him which will definitly cover for any uncertainty about the specifics of the bid (short of something ridiculous like bids at pick 5 and 6) and also messes with my concept quite a bit and not in our favour They'll now have the picks available (which is good) but no incentive(more the removal of a what made a trade in our favour be of no consequence to them) to give us a good deal(the bad).

I can't see how an "agreement" on Keays with Brisbane could come about, they aren't going to let us have him for Jansen nor does our threat of bidding mean much to them, if we don't bid someone else will.

My point was only rel to P9 , has more points attached to it...so if the player is around that value each pick at that level is probably equivalent to a pick in the mid 60's... every pick it gets past is less they have to find... certainly have not sat down and given it the attention of a clear mind as it seem you have.

 

[Dom PC]

Just curious as to why you guys are asking for close to your money back on Jansen? Mid 30s pick who hasn't played a game in his first two years and is uncontracted, surely a late pick does it (e.g. pick in the 50s or later)?

For comparison someone like Nathan Freeman, a top 10 pick and uncontracted who hasn't played a game is likely to net Collingwood a pick in the late 20s.

Is there a less obvious reason you're expecting something decent for a trade? E.g. maybe we will give you something decent as you let Christensen come to us without any sort of a fight trade wise.

 

[catempire]

Just curious as to why you guys are asking for close to your money back on Jansen? Mid 30s pick who hasn't played a game in his first two years and is uncontracted, surely a late pick does it (e.g. pick in the 50s or later)?

For comparison someone like Nathan Freeman, a top 10 pick and uncontracted who hasn't played a game is likely to net Collingwood a pick in the late 20s.

Is there a less obvious reason you're expecting something decent for a trade? E.g. maybe we will give you something decent as you let Christensen come to us without any sort of a fight trade wise.

Just the usual situation of people being unrealistic about the currency of their own players.

Jansen has close to zero trade value. A late pick Brisbane doesn't intend to use or an upgrade of similar will be the absolute best we will do.

Christensen has zero to do with it.

 

[Leeds17]

Josh Kennedy had similar knocks and only played 3 games by the end of his 2nd year.

Still think it'd be a big shame to let him go.

 

[FredLeDeux]

Josh Kennedy had similar knocks and only played 3 games by the end of his 2nd year.

Still think it'd be a big shame to let him go.

In his 2nd year he got 3 games in a Premiership side, whereas JJ couldn't get a game in a 10th-on-the-ladder side.

 

[OzeSparky]

In his 2nd year he got 3 games in a Premiership side, whereas JJ couldn't get a game in a 10th-on-the-ladder side.

Can see it being an upgrade of pick, swap of fourth rounders.