Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2018 AFL Draft Almanac

[Suma Magic]

Yeah, that's wrong.

He'd be playing at a bunch of AFL clubs right now, Daw ranking as the 2nd best intercept marking key defender of 2018 kept him out. The kid is a physical beast and will play most of 2019, there's a chance he pushes Tarrant back to the 2nd forward given his size/speed of development, Shaun Higgins as early as Friday said on the radio that he could of played all of 2018, but the club held him back to give him another year in the VFL and a year on weights, Thompson a full year given his form etc. He averaged 15 touches, 11 marks (2.67 contested) as a CHB in the VFL in 2018. Pretty much every North players ranks him as North's best kid on it's list.

He just finished 6th in our club time trial and is weighing in at 106kg's. Both Ben and Harry are the next legitimate monster KPP's of the AFL, genetically they are just completely abnormal. The King's may have 2-3 cm's on them, but they don't have the genetics of the McKay boys.

Remembering the McKay's are still only 20 years old. Ben himself didn't start playing TAC Cup until around Rnd 7 of his top age year.


I agree with your sentiment in general, the Kings have been bluechip recruits for the last 5 years and both should end up better than the McKay boys, that's purely reflected in their draft rankings in what is a very strong draft. I think they are naturally better footballers, they read the play extremely quickly.


If you ask most North supporters who our most exciting prospect is, most will tell you Ben McKay. He's miles ahead of someone like Robbie Tarrant at the same age, he's a legitimate potential AA defender with his size, motor and intercept/contested marking ability.

He is ******* massive.

 

[Malifice]

We've gotta get Harry in touch with Bens weights guy.

Also; looks like both lads have been skipping leg days.

 

[Pykie]

We've gotta get Harry in touch with Bens weights guy.

Also; looks like both lads have been skipping leg days.

I don't think he's been missing out tbh. They are both just absolute monsters athletically. As I said, both of them are still yet to turn 21.

He is ******* massive.

And somehow finished 6th in our club time trial at 106kg's.

They are just abnormal.

They could be WWE wrestlers if footy doesn't pan out.

 

[Knightmare]

Yeah, that's wrong.

He'd be playing at a bunch of AFL clubs right now, Daw ranking as the 2nd best intercept marking key defender of 2018 kept him out. The kid is a physical beast and will play most of 2019, there's a chance he pushes Tarrant back to the 2nd forward given his size/speed of development, Shaun Higgins as early as Friday said on the radio that he could of played all of 2018, but the club held him back to give him another year in the VFL and a year on weights, Thompson a full year given his form etc. He averaged 15 touches, 11 marks (2.67 contested) as a CHB in the VFL in 2018. Pretty much every North players ranks him as North's best kid on it's list.

He just finished 6th in our club time trial and is weighing in at 106kg's. Both Ben and Harry are the next legitimate monster KPP's of the AFL, genetically they are just completely abnormal. The King's may have 2-3 cm's on them, but they don't have the genetics of the McKay boys.

Remembering the McKay's are still only 20 years old. Ben himself didn't start playing TAC Cup until around Rnd 7 of his top age year.


I agree with your sentiment in general, the Kings have been bluechip recruits for the last 5 years and both should end up better than the McKay boys, that's purely reflected in their draft rankings in what is a very strong draft. I think they are naturally better footballers, they read the play extremely quickly.


If you ask most North supporters who our most exciting prospect is, most will tell you Ben McKay. He's miles ahead of someone like Robbie Tarrant at the same age, he's a legitimate potential AA defender with his size, motor and intercept/contested marking ability.

If I want a key defender who has been in the system one or more years and wasn't taken inside the first round and has played sub 10 games. Give me Lewis Young and Harrison Petty.

Based on 2018 play I don't consider Ben McKay to be AFL standard yet. Doesn't mean won't have a career or won't get to that level this year but on 2018 play he certainly wasn't at only 12 disposals and 5.5 marks per game. If McKay wants those numbers at AFL level, he needs to do better than that in the VFL.

Wow what a super detailed response much much appreciated!! The only thing i dont agree with is i think you are criminally underrating fisher but time will tell!

I know this is really pushing it but last question (as we are slightly veering off thread topic) but if you get a chance can you please rank JUST the stars section of both carlton and brisbane under 25s combined? As these two clubs seem to be the two who are at same stage of rebuilding.

So its out of Andrews, Hipwood, Rayner
4. McCluggage 5. Witherden 6. Cameron 7. J.Berry

And cripps, curnow, weitering, walsh, dow and setterfield.

With smalls I'm conservative in my projections ahead as they often don't improve much in the AFL system and you're rating them for the most part on who they are today. If Fisher develops a lot further, that's a bonus.

If I'm merging the Carlton and Brisbane (projected) stars under 25 I'm taking:

1. Cripps
2. Andrews
3. Curnow
4. Weitering
5. Hipwood
6. Walsh (6-9 is a wash but Walsh slightly the better of these as the highest production)
7. Rayner
8. McCluggage
9. Dow
10. Witherden
11. Cameron
12. J.Berry
13. Setterfield (if not for injuries would be top 10)

 

[Knightmare]

We've gotta get Harry in touch with Bens weights guy.

Also; looks like both lads have been skipping leg days.

Footballers classically don't have tree trunks for legs. A lot of it is due to the nature of the game being running centric.

You can't have large carves or large quads and run long distances at high speed and expect to turn on a dime. That's more suitable for sprinters who run in straight lines and rowers who really need that leg strength with legs being what powers them.

An easy example is the below. First set of legs = Ben Crocker. Third set of legs = Adam Treloar.

Owning the middle set of legs and knowing I'm immobile, have poor running endurance, a turning circle worse than my old Volvo and no capacity to stop if running at speed for around 6-7 steps and no change of direction. It should give a fairly good idea of the type of legs you want as a footballer v what you probably don't want with Treloar particularly a highly explosive athlete and closer to what you'd want from non KPPs/ruckmen, though with their running demands you'll find they all would have certainly much smaller carves than my own and would only have moderate size quads at most.

With legs it's more about being able to stand up and hold position in the contest, enough strength not to get knocked off feet when bumped in general play and enough power to be able to kick the ball 50m+. If you've got the strength for all that, leg training is about running (speed/endurance/agility/repeat speed) and having the flexibility to minimise injury risk.

 

[snooplions]

If I want a key defender who has been in the system one or more years and wasn't taken inside the first round and has played sub 10 games. Give me Lewis Young and Harrison Petty.

Based on 2018 play I don't consider Ben McKay to be AFL standard yet. Doesn't mean won't have a career or won't get to that level this year but on 2018 play he certainly wasn't at only 12 disposals and 5.5 marks per game. If McKay wants those numbers at AFL level, he needs to do better than that in the VFL.



With smalls I'm conservative in my projections ahead as they often don't improve much in the AFL system and you're rating them for the most part on who they are today. If Fisher develops a lot further, that's a bonus.

If I'm merging the Carlton and Brisbane (projected) stars under 25 I'm taking:

1. Cripps
2. Andrews
3. Curnow
4. Weitering
5. Hipwood
6. Walsh (6-9 is a wash but Walsh slightly the better of these as the highest production)
7. Rayner
8. McCluggage
9. Dow
10. Witherden
11. Cameron
12. J.Berry
13. Setterfield (if not for injuries would be top 10)

Where do you rate Jarrod Berry on that list at this point in time?

 

[Knightmare]

Where do you rate Jarrod Berry on that list at this point in time?

I have Berry at 12 on that Carlton/Brisbane combined list as per the above.

 

[snooplions]

I have Berry at 12 on that Carlton/Brisbane combined list as per the above.

I mean if that list of players were rated off current performance up until today. I'd have him at #6 behind Cripps, Andrews, Curnow, Hipwood and Cameron following the 2018 season.

 

[Knightmare]

I mean if that list of players were rated off current performance up until today. I'd have him at #6 behind Cripps, Andrews, Curnow, Hipwood and Cameron following the 2018 season.

Of those 13 Cripps/Andrews/Curnow/Cameron/Witherden/Hipwood/Weitering are all better than Berry today. The others are all nipping at his heels.

 

[Balony_pony16]

Knight, as a fantasy keepers draft league addict I’m always trying to balance up targeting players who have junior accumulation records and those who have the qualities to get a good role in an AFL team and thus scoring.

If you look at someone like Berry critics in the fantasy world suggested based on his junior stats he wasn’t going to be relevant, but next minute he settles into afl very well and looks to have a huge role in the lions team going forward which looks like it is translating to fantasy. And I’m sure there are heaps of Berry types over the years .

So, my question. Of the top Talent guys who have fantasy question marks over them who stands out the most as ones to watch out for in AFL. Caldwell, butters, Blakely and Thomas spring to mind. Thoughts on these guys and/or add your own.

Cheers

 

[Knightmare]

Knight, as a fantasy keepers draft league addict I’m always trying to balance up targeting players who have junior accumulation records and those who have the qualities to get a good role in an AFL team and thus scoring.

If you look at someone like Berry critics in the fantasy world suggested based on his junior stats he wasn’t going to be relevant, but next minute he settles into afl very well and looks to have a huge role in the lions team going forward which looks like it is translating to fantasy. And I’m sure there are heaps of Berry types over the years .

So, my question. Of the top Talent guys who have fantasy question marks over them who stands out the most as ones to watch out for in AFL. Caldwell, butters, Blakely and Thomas spring to mind. Thoughts on these guys and/or add your own.

Cheers

Walsh and Smith will be the top accumulators and will be the top scorers.

Rankine who will presumably have forward eligibility would be after those two the next most valuable in fantasyland.

Jye Caldwell if he can earn games is another with midfield minutes who could score well also, but it may not be year one for him.

Connor McFadyen if you have a late first round pick is one to jump on. He can be big time and was grossly underrated by clubs during the draft.

Jackson Hately, Chayce Jones, Liam Stocker, Ely Smith, Rhylee West, Luke Valente and Jack Bytel when they start earning games will be able to rack it up.

Lukosius should be a round one starter and can produce from season one. His scoring will be even better if he plays more wing than KPP.

Thomas and Butters are two to watching during the preseason. They could respectively go either way. Thomas the more likely to have an immediate impact of the two having the more advanced game and ball winning.

Blakey is a long termer if you get him don't expect much initially but he can come good and could be anything with some time and development.

Clark/Quaynor/McHenry I expect to see in season one as types I can see earning a role early.

Kieran Briggs and Bailey Williams I feel are sneaky chances to develop if after ruckmen.

Other than the mature agers, they're the ones to be aware of in fantasy.

 

[NewDarkNavyBlues]

Walsh is a slower and less consistent kicking version of Kelly. But they're similar build/production/endurance and inside/outside capabilities at same age. Kelly is the easiest comparison for Walsh (just that poor man's version).

Stocker isn't Coniglio good. Stocker I compared to David Armitage. He's not slow and skills are good, but Armitage is the kind of build and production to expect as a probable outcome, and that's a good outcome if it works out that way with fewer than half around that pick 19 range even making it at AFL level.

David Armitage lol... So far off the mark.

Walsh will be a more notable player by the end of both his and Kelly's career.

I hope Tim Broomhead will start to show his generational talent next year for your sake.

 

[mustang]

KM have you seen Finn Maginness play if so were will he go in the draft on what your seen.

 

[Dunny82]

Hi KM,
I've recently seen the video of the Blues trading to get Stocker on draft day where the recruiting team make mention of rating Stocker at #6 in this year's draft.
Let's say Carlton have correctly identified him as the 6th best talent. What could you possibly think of that everyone else seems to have missed about him that would make him so highly rated?
On the flip side, what attributes of his do you think they could have overrated?

 

[Knightmare]

KM have you seen Finn Maginness play if so were will he go in the draft on what your seen.

A possible choice next year as a Hawthorn F/S.

A forward who has shown some glimpses of class at times but will need to take the next step to ensure he is drafted.

Unclear draft position at the moment. Not one of the top end or top 30 choices on my board at this stage.

Hi KM,
I've recently seen the video of the Blues trading to get Stocker on draft day where the recruiting team make mention of rating Stocker at #6 in this year's draft.
Let's say Carlton have correctly identified him as the 6th best talent. What could you possibly think of that everyone else seems to have missed about him that would make him so highly rated?
On the flip side, what attributes of his do you think they could have overrated?

If Stocker is the 6th best talent in the draft. Carlton have made a good trade. It's an opinion I don't share with Carlton but they deserve congratulations if he is a legitimate 1-6 standard player in this draft.

Good midfielder - has the ball winning, he's quick and uses it well. A lot of ticks. What he doesn't have is anything forward of centre - not much of a goal kicker, not a contested marking threat. Lacks any second position other than playing as an inside mid. Endurance from what I'm hearing is more of a work in progress that I had suspected from my eye test. On quality I'm predicting something like an Armitage/Dunstan - perhaps quicker and more skilled but ultimately likely to get similar numbers someone who with similar size/shape looks likely to remain just a mid exclusively which I don't top 10 love with the top end so special this year.

 

[Jazny]

Is the TAC cup televised? I want to watch the Tassie games next year. If Gil wants people to be interested in the draft, there needs to be a way to watch all junior games so you know who these guys are who are being drafted.

 

[Marcel Proust]

A possible choice next year as a Hawthorn F/S.

A forward who has shown some glimpses of class at times but will need to take the next step to ensure he is drafted.

Unclear draft position at the moment. Not one of the top end or top 30 choices on my board at this stage.



If Stocker is the 6th best talent in the draft. Carlton have made a good trade. It's an opinion I don't share with Carlton but they deserve congratulations if he is a legitimate 1-6 standard player in this draft.

Good midfielder - has the ball winning, he's quick and uses it well. A lot of ticks. What he doesn't have is anything forward of centre - not much of a goal kicker, not a contested marking threat. Lacks any second position other than playing as an inside mid. Endurance from what I'm hearing is more of a work in progress that I had suspected from my eye test. On quality I'm predicting something like an Armitage/Dunstan - perhaps quicker and more skilled but ultimately likely to get similar numbers someone who with similar size/shape looks likely to remain just a mid exclusively which I don't top 10 love with the top end so special this year.

Tigers are said to have Stocker @ 26 on the list

for what its worth

 

[Knightmare]

Is the TAC cup televised? I want to watch the Tassie games next year. If Gil wants people to be interested in the draft, there needs to be a way to watch all junior games so you know who these guys are who are being drafted.

TAC Cup is on youtube.

 

[Knightmare]

Tigers are said to have Stocker @ 26 on the list

for what its worth

Do you have a source confirming this you can link?

New information to me. I was hearing Richmond might take if there.

 

[Dunny82]

A possible choice next year as a Hawthorn F/S.

A forward who has shown some glimpses of class at times but will need to take the next step to ensure he is drafted.

Unclear draft position at the moment. Not one of the top end or top 30 choices on my board at this stage.



If Stocker is the 6th best talent in the draft. Carlton have made a good trade. It's an opinion I don't share with Carlton but they deserve congratulations if he is a legitimate 1-6 standard player in this draft.

Good midfielder - has the ball winning, he's quick and uses it well. A lot of ticks. What he doesn't have is anything forward of centre - not much of a goal kicker, not a contested marking threat. Lacks any second position other than playing as an inside mid. Endurance from what I'm hearing is more of a work in progress that I had suspected from my eye test. On quality I'm predicting something like an Armitage/Dunstan - perhaps quicker and more skilled but ultimately likely to get similar numbers someone who with similar size/shape looks likely to remain just a mid exclusively which I don't top 10 love with the top end so special this year.

Has Stocker had any dominant games that may have contributed to his high rating, perhaps out of TAC Cup? I see from ChampionData stats that he had a decent SC average in TAC Cup this year but I'm struggling to see anything that helps me understand what could possibly contribute to Carlton's positive view of him. Maybe he didn't have much of a preseason? Was his focus on things not footy related so there's a lot of room for development?

On a different note, what do you make of Geelong's drafting of Fort? I'm assuming this means that Zac Smith is possibly out the door when his contract is up end of next year. Perhaps this will be a trend going forward where clubs no longer will be inclined to develop rucks on their lists for years before they're ready to play and opt instead to pick rucks that are closer to their peak years from 25+.

 

[Knightmare]

Has Stocker had any dominant games that may have contributed to his high rating, perhaps out of TAC Cup? I see from ChampionData stats that he had a decent SC average in TAC Cup this year but I'm struggling to see anything that helps me understand what could possibly contribute to Carlton's positive view of him. Maybe he didn't have much of a preseason? Was his focus on things not footy related so there's a lot of room for development?

On a different note, what do you make of Geelong's drafting of Fort? I'm assuming this means that Zac Smith is possibly out the door when his contract is up end of next year. Perhaps this will be a trend going forward where clubs no longer will be inclined to develop rucks on their lists for years before they're ready to play and opt instead to pick rucks that are closer to their peak years from 25+.

Stocker was pretty consistent (11/15 TAC Cup games in bests for Sandy) but had no single game where he went BANG. His best was v Bendigo with 35d and one goal. Had only one other 30 or more disposal game and only the one game with 2 goals.

It feels like an attribute based recruiting decision with Carlton feeling the contested ball winning/tackling/skills/speed combination will see him develop into a better than just good mid. That's not to say he doesn't have the performances on the board and he's seen as being of high character. That's part of it.

But when comparing Stocker to say a Smith - he neither has the attributes to the same extent - he's not as explosive, as good of a kick, as dominant of a contested ball winner or accumulator, doesn't have the same versatility. So a rating of 6 for Stocker is for me a head scratcher when Lukosius/Rankine/Smith/Walsh/the King's/Blakey and Caldwell are all in the same draft class.

The time Stocker has missed was around the u18 champs missing some time with a shoulder injury. But his play has been good and hasn't seemed impacted either side of the champs.

The drafting of Fort may not help Geelong much. For mine he's still a developing player at 25 and likely not a solution. I thought for those clubs needing an immediate ruckman that looking at opposition lists was the better way to go this year. Tom Nicholls as one unused ruckman I'd consider an upgrade on Smith/Stanley. Better again would have been Preuss. Tom Campbell as a DTA or Reilly O'Brien or Darcy Cameron as outside of best 22 ruckman are others again I'd take ahead of Fort.

I feel like the issue with ruckmen is there just aren't many good ones compared to previously. A lot of talls may be choosing other sports, while a lot of the better ones are now playing as KPPs instead leaving few good young ruckmen coming through the junior ranks. Clubs may need to look more towards cat b rookie ruckmen and investing more in the US.

 

[Dunny82]

Stocker was pretty consistent (11/15 TAC Cup games in bests for Sandy) but had no single game where he went BANG. His best was v Bendigo with 35d and one goal. Had only one other 30 or more disposal game and only the one game with 2 goals.

It feels like an attribute based recruiting decision with Carlton feeling the contested ball winning/tackling/skills/speed combination will see him develop into a better than just good mid. That's not to say he doesn't have the performances on the board and he's seen as being of high character. That's part of it.

But when comparing Stocker to say a Smith - he neither has the attributes to the same extent - he's not as explosive, as good of a kick, as dominant of a contested ball winner or accumulator, doesn't have the same versatility. So a rating of 6 for Stocker is for me a head scratcher when Lukosius/Rankine/Smith/Walsh/the King's/Blakey and Caldwell are all in the same draft class.

The time Stocker has missed was around the u18 champs missing some time with a shoulder injury. But his play has been good and hasn't seemed impacted either side of the champs.

The drafting of Fort may not help Geelong much. For mine he's still a developing player at 25 and likely not a solution. I thought for those clubs needing an immediate ruckman that looking at opposition lists was the better way to go this year. Tom Nicholls as one unused ruckman I'd consider an upgrade on Smith/Stanley. Better again would have been Preuss. Tom Campbell as a DTA or Reilly O'Brien or Darcy Cameron as outside of best 22 ruckman are others again I'd take ahead of Fort.

I feel like the issue with ruckmen is there just aren't many good ones compared to previously. A lot of talls may be choosing other sports, while a lot of the better ones are now playing as KPPs instead leaving few good young ruckmen coming through the junior ranks. Clubs may need to look more towards cat b rookie ruckmen and investing more in the US.

Thanks for the detail on Stocker, appreciate your insight.

Are you surprised the recruiting of US based talent hasn't caught on quicker than it has? Cox has improved each year and still has room to be better and I was impressed with his final against Richmond.

 

[briztoon]

Only hearing second hand reports from the Lions draft function night, but apparently the Lions recruiters had Ely Smith ahead of Stocker (and RCD).

Feel he has a higher ceiling and a lot of development left.

 

[Knightmare]

Thanks for the detail on Stocker, appreciate your insight.

Are you surprised the recruiting of US based talent hasn't caught on quicker than it has? Cox has improved each year and still has room to be better and I was impressed with his final against Richmond.

From what I understand the AFL didn't even have a US combine this year. So it seems like the AFL are completely moving away from the US route which I find ridiculous with the ruck shortage and the athletic profiles of a lot of the athletes over there. Hopefully the mindset changes as I see a lot of potential going that route.

Equally clubs need to work harder to get more cat b rookies and can go with local converts who may have played some junior footy, chose another sport, and work to bring some of those guys back.

Only hearing second hand reports from the Lions draft function night, but apparently the Lions recruiters had Ely Smith ahead of Stocker (and RCD).

Feel he has a higher ceiling and a lot of development left.

Ely Smith can win it and is one of the best pure stoppage players in the draft. Of the three, Smith is arguably the most advanced. He's at the moment exclusively a mid and probably doesn't have the weapons. But if you want that inside extractor and strong tackler who does all the hard stuff to a high standard. Smith can do that.

 

[briztoon]

From what I understand the AFL didn't even have a US combine this year. So it seems like the AFL are completely moving away from the US route which I find ridiculous with the ruck shortage and the athletic profiles of a lot of the athletes over there. Hopefully the mindset changes as I see a lot of potential going that route.

Equally clubs need to work harder to get more cat b rookies and can go with local converts who may have played some junior footy, chose another sport, and work to bring some of those guys back.



Ely Smith can win it and is one of the best pure stoppage players in the draft. Of the three, Smith is arguably the most advanced. He's at the moment exclusively a mid and probably doesn't have the weapons. But if you want that inside extractor and strong tackler who does all the hard stuff to a high standard. Smith can do that.

You look at the young midfield we’re building, it’s going to be bloody fierce in five years time.