Lottery Style Draft Idea

[MAAAATTDAAAAMON]

Following Sheedy's silly comments about the draft... My thoughts:

I like the raffle type idea they do in America. All teams are a chance for pick one but at vastly different odds.

Eg bottom team get say... 300 chances, 17th 250, 16th 200, 15th 150, 14th 100, 13th 90, 12th 80, 11th 70, 10th 60, 9th 50, 8th-5th 30, 4th-1st 20.

Put the balls in, spin em around and pick the round one order from there.

To give lower teams another boost, bottom 4 teams have a chance to have a maximum of 2 balls pulled out in first round, whereas after 1st ball is pulled out for other teams, they can't get a second 1st round pick. No priority picks. (To avoid tanking for bottom 4, other teams outside 8 could also possibly receive 2 balls, but not if they receive a top 5 pick). Once every team has been pulled out at least once, the round 1 order is complete.

After round 1, order goes the same as it is now, 18th to 1st.

To me this would mean most likely the bottom teams get the best picks and have a strong chance of ending up with 2 round 1 picks, but not assured. Tanking would be greatly reduced while bottom teams get great chance to build.

This would be a thrilling spectacle as well.

I realise this isn't totally new.. But good idea or bad idea?

 

[Tarkyn_24]

Only as long as Cyril Rioli doesn't tamper with this too.

 

[the harry]

To me this would mean most likely the bottom teams get the best picks and have a strong chance of ending up with 2 round 1 picks, but not assured. Tanking would be greatly reduced while bottom teams get great chance to build.

This paragraph is a contradiction. You cannot have greater weighting for lower teams and claim that there is no reason to tank.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

You cannot have the top 8 sides having a chance of the number 1 pick. Just make it the bottom 8 sides. How unfair would it be if Sydney or Hawthorn get the number 1 pick, get a gun mid to a side that has won the flag/played in the GF.

 

[Cuzdup]

The American lottery system only applies to the bottom half of the table. Those that dont make playoffs. So if you apply that to the AFL the top 8 would be set and the rest go into the lottery.

However in the American lottery system the odds are heavily set in the bottom placed teams favour with a 25% chance of pick 1, second bottom had a 20% chance, 3rd bottom 15%, 4th bottom 10% chance and the rest fall away sharply to 4% - .5%

 

[Mr Meeseeks]

How unfair would it be if Sydney or Hawthorn get the number 1 pick, get a gun mid to a side that has won the flag/played in the GF.

 

[Lensen]

You cannot have the top 8 sides having a chance of the number 1 pick. Just make it the bottom 8 sides. How unfair would it be if Sydney or Hawthorn get the number 1 pick, get a gun mid to a side that has won the flag/played in the GF.

How is it "fair" that Melbourne have had multiple top 3 picks in the last 5 years whilst Geelong haven't had one in the last 15?

 

[JackFlash]

Every year we get some CRAZY idea to change the draft and it all comes about because some teams blew their chance up their arse! Richmond could've had Franklin or Roughead, that's their fault they don't. Melbourne? now let's talk about Melbourne and forget about Jack Watts for a second, check out the disaster that was the 2009 draft as evidence of their inept recruiting strategies.
The Demons had 4 picks in the top 20 in 2009 and still failed to take Fyfe, Carlisle, Gunston or Duncan and then they had another pick at 34 leaving Sam Reid and Allen Christensen to go to Sydney and Geelong!
So Sheedy wants to reward clubs for being idiots? It looks like they may have hit the jackpot this year, but leave the draft alone. Sheedy should be in a care facility, he's losing his mind.

 

[Milux]

How is it "fair" that Melbourne have had multiple top 3 picks in the last 5 years whilst Geelong haven't had one in the last 15?

Melbourne keep getting top picks because they cant develop the ones they already have so they only people missing out are the kids going to melbourne.

 

[El_Scorcho]

If you want to stop tanking, take final ladder order out of the equation.

Set the draft order for the bottom 10 by the order in which clubs are mathematically incapable of making the 8.

So you're still a chance at making finals until you're not and then your draft position is already locked in, so you can keep trying to win.

 

[Confuscius]

How is it "fair" that Melbourne have had multiple top 3 picks in the last 5 years whilst Geelong haven't had one in the last 15?

Because Melbourne are aiming to get somewhere close to where Geelong are/have been for the last 15 years?

 

[Lensen]

Because Melbourne are aiming to get somewhere close to where Geelong are/have been for the last 15 years?

So is every club, how is "fair" that Melbourne get more assistance than others to do so?

Don't get me wrong, I completely understand the why of the AFL's manipulation of the drafting process. It is not in any circumstances "fair" in a competitive aspect, however.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

How is it "fair" that Melbourne have had multiple top 3 picks in the last 5 years whilst Geelong haven't had one in the last 15?

Maybe because Melbourne have been hopeless for years. You can't have premiers getting top 5 picks unless they enter a trade.

 

[Lensen]

Maybe because Melbourne have been hopeless for years. You can't have premiers getting top 5 picks unless they enter a trade.

That's the AFL's view, don't be a parrot.

Why is it "fair" that one side gets a significantly greater opportunity than another to recruit the most talented kids, solely on the basis of being terrible?

 

[LukeParkerno1]

That's the AFL's view, don't be a parrot.

Why is it "fair" that one side gets a significantly greater opportunity than another to recruit the most talented kids, solely on the basis of being terrible?

Well because if they don't get help they will continue to be terrible, there is a massive difference between say pick 10 and getting the best pick in the draft. Assuming you develop right, there is a difference. No top 8 side needs help. Happy for a lottery for the bottom 8 sides though.

 

[Lensen]

Well because if they don't get help they will continue to be terrible, there is a massive difference between say pick 10 and getting the best pick in the draft. Assuming you develop right, there is a difference. No top 8 side needs help. Happy for a lottery for the bottom 8 sides though.

Right, so your interest isn't in fairness, it's in equality of outcome. That's fine if you believe that, but it's not fair which is the part you quoted.

 

[Masto]

Its good in theory. In practice it will lead to the Sydney Swans have the #1 pick for the next 15 years.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Right, so your interest isn't in fairness, it's in equality of outcome. That's fine if you believe that, but it's not fair which is the part you quoted.

My interest is making as many games as humanly possible close. The draft does this, the best kids get to the poor sides. I'm happy with a NBA type draft but limited to the bottom 8. I can live with a team coming 9th or 10th getting pick 1, I can't live with the premiers getting pick 1. They have just won the flag, they don't need the top kid in the draft to be better!

 

[Marlin01]

Do the lottery at the draft, with recruiters selecting players as the balls are drawn. That'd make the telecast a lot more exciting.

 

[Lensen]

My interest is making as many games as humanly possible close!

great, not sure why you quoted a post about it being fair to start with then

 

[LukeParkerno1]

great, not sure why you quoted a post about it being fair to start with then

Goes hand in hand. It isn't fair one bit that team winning the flag gets any shot at the number 1 pick. They don't need help, they get pick 16-20 depending on PP's, compensation, etc. That is more than fair.

 

[BlakeyNoFlakey]

I think no matter how you do the draft some teams will find a way to exploit it. The way the AFL do it now is probably the simplest way. I think just do away with priority picks altogether, and bring in the ability to trade picks in coming years like they do in American Football. But, i don't think any sport has a perfect system.

 

[Lensen]

Goes hand in hand. It isn't fair one bit that team winning the flag gets any shot at the number 1 pick. They don't need help, they get pick 16-20 depending on PP's, compensation, etc. That is more than fair.

Fair is every team having the same opportunity. The same opportunity at top end talent.
Manipulating this to effectively handicap top sides might be - might - in the best interests of the overall competition's evenness, but it is not fair.

Would you consider it fair if GWS got 17 home games this year and Hawthorn got 5? How is that different to handicapping via the draft?

 

[Matt Stevic]

Fair is every team having the same opportunity. The same opportunity at top end talent.
Manipulating this to effectively handicap top sides might be - might - in the best interests of the overall competition's evenness, but it is not fair.

This. It's surprising how many don't understand this.

Fairness does not mean manipulating the competition to get as many close games as possible.

 

[mike123]

I don't like the idea of allocating draft picks by chance.