Ratts of Tobruk
Cancelled
- May 1, 2013
- 9,168
- 5,975
- AFL Club
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- ATV Irdning
Fine. And to save money let's have it at the same time as the next election. Everyone's happy, right?
Polls Thread Mk III
- Thread starter Caesar
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Baldy Head
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No, because then the issue becomes overly political when held in the midst of an election campaign.
If they are going to have the vote on changing the preamble to the Constitution to say something about the Aboriginals, they can hold both of those votes on the same day.
Ratts of Tobruk
Cancelled
- May 1, 2013
- 9,168
- 5,975
- AFL Club
- Carlton
- Other Teams
- ATV Irdning
Please explain... If there's a more appropriate thread to do it in, then feel free to quote this there so we can shift across.
Newspoll - Canning - Sample size: 508
Liberal: 41 (-10.1)
ALP: 36 (+9.4)
Greens: 11 (+3.6)
2PP
Liberal: 51 (-10.8)
ALP: 49 (+10.8)
Worth noting that preference flows to the Liberals at the last election were kinder in Canning than they were nationally:
22% of Greens' preferences went to Randall last time, compared with 17% to a Liberal on average.
60% of Others' preferences went to Randall last time, compared with 53% to a Liberal on average.
If we assume that this discrepancy is at least partially attributed to Randall's local standing, it's pretty much a dead heat.
Liberal: 41 (-10.1)
ALP: 36 (+9.4)
Greens: 11 (+3.6)
2PP
Liberal: 51 (-10.8)
ALP: 49 (+10.8)
Worth noting that preference flows to the Liberals at the last election were kinder in Canning than they were nationally:
22% of Greens' preferences went to Randall last time, compared with 17% to a Liberal on average.
60% of Others' preferences went to Randall last time, compared with 53% to a Liberal on average.
If we assume that this discrepancy is at least partially attributed to Randall's local standing, it's pretty much a dead heat.
Ratts of Tobruk
Cancelled
- May 1, 2013
- 9,168
- 5,975
- AFL Club
- Carlton
- Other Teams
- ATV Irdning
Baldy explained his position over here.
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smokingjacket
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It's a weird electorate. Part urban, part rural fringe. Housing estates, horses and remnant market gardens. Catches some acreages in the hills too. Wouldn't be surprised if there was a high proportion of mixed up blue-green voters in the electorate.
Will put this here, as it impacts the significance of the polls:
Draft electoral boundaries for WA, these will NOT affect the Canning by-election.
The major change is the creation of WA's 16th seat, tentatively named 'Burt,' based around Thornile, Armadale & Gosnells.
Estimated margins (Old | New)
Neither a win, nor a loss for either party, in my opinion. Burt holds solid Labor territory, and should be one of Labor's easier gains at the next election, particularly with no sitting member.
Cowan (Luke Simpkins) should also be a Labor win if they're any chance at the next election.
Hasluck/Swan/Pearce all become a bit easier for the Liberals to defend, though are not impregnable. Stirling (Michael Keenan - Justice Minister) drops below 10%, but I don't expect Labor to win there anyway.
Margins & Summary: http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2015/08/21/wa-federally-redistributed/
Full report: http://www.aec.gov.au/Electorates/Redistributions/2014/wa/proposed-report/files/proposed-report.pdf
Draft electoral boundaries for WA, these will NOT affect the Canning by-election.
The major change is the creation of WA's 16th seat, tentatively named 'Burt,' based around Thornile, Armadale & Gosnells.
Estimated margins (Old | New)
- Fremantle (4.8 | 6.0)
- Brand (2.9 | 3.6)
- Perth (4.4 | 2.6)
- Cowan (7.5 | 4.0)
- Burt ( - | 4.8)
- Hasluck (4.9 | 6.0)
- Swan (6.5 | 7.6)
- Stirling (10.3 | 9.2)
- Pearce (8.1 | 9.7)
- Moore (11.9 | 12.6)
- Canning (11.8 | 12.9)
- Tangney (14.7 | 13.1)
- Forrest (12.3 | 14.1)
- O'Connor (17.2 | 14.9)
- Durack (14.9 | 15.3)
- Curtin (17.4 | 18.5)
Neither a win, nor a loss for either party, in my opinion. Burt holds solid Labor territory, and should be one of Labor's easier gains at the next election, particularly with no sitting member.
Cowan (Luke Simpkins) should also be a Labor win if they're any chance at the next election.
Hasluck/Swan/Pearce all become a bit easier for the Liberals to defend, though are not impregnable. Stirling (Michael Keenan - Justice Minister) drops below 10%, but I don't expect Labor to win there anyway.
Margins & Summary: http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2015/08/21/wa-federally-redistributed/
Full report: http://www.aec.gov.au/Electorates/Redistributions/2014/wa/proposed-report/files/proposed-report.pdf
Out tonight:
30% - dropped 3. 2PP unchanged.
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Norm Smith Medallist
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They break for 3 weeks after the Canning by-election. Can't see a move before that.
- Jan 13, 2001
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What is scary about the 5 point lead for Shorten is that he isn't popular with the electorate, just that they despise Abbott.
If they lose Canning Abbott will try and write it off as just another by-election that goes against the government.
Showbags
Norm Smith Medallist
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Abbott will try but his party will think otherwise. They will give Abbott the political judo chop as quick as they can in a state of panic.
- Jan 13, 2001
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Lose Canning and it is almost certain there will be another challenge
- Banned
- #1,194
Why does Essential poll seem to move so little and often seem to swing in the opposite direction of the other polls? It held for the big swing against and now has Libs moving to almost parity?
Does their methodology lead to a coalition bias, or even simply a lack of movement??
Does their methodology lead to a coalition bias, or even simply a lack of movement??
- Jan 13, 2001
- 15,892
- 6,917
- AFL Club
- Brisbane Lions
- Other Teams
- Man City
Could be a case of who doesn't put their foot in their mouth the most before polling day. The fact Abbott won't be in WA at all before the by-election is a good thing for the Libs.
Baldy Head
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Does anyone even know the name of the Labor candidate for Canning? LOL
Baldy Head
Senior List
- Feb 11, 2015
- 233
- 76
- AFL Club
- Gold Coast
- Banned
- #1,198
GOAUS!
Norm Smith Medallist
- Apr 20, 2010
- 9,782
- 7,519
- AFL Club
- Western Bulldogs
I don't mean spin in a derogatory way. Simply saying Abbott's been campaigning for a plebiscite, and that seems like it's been appealing to people
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