Whilst all the hype may surround the Cousins v Judd showdown, or the Grand Final rematch…1 game this week sneaks quietly under the radar. Adelaide and Collingwood are 2 sides that may lack the ‘star’ players, but have very even teams and match up extremely well against each other.
Footy’s back, I’m pumped…and my weekly match previews hit full pelt again for the 2009 season. I hope you have a bit of time to spare, because there is a whole lot of information I’m about to troll through.
Thankfully we are finished with the fake stuff, and 4 points is once again on the line. No more stupid rules that forbid backwards kicking. Hopefully we therefore see a much more free flowing game and faster movement.
Recent Form
Collingwood had the wood over Adelaide in 2008. The Pies won both encounters, including the elimination final. The margins were 31 and 32 points respectively. However, since 2006, the score is 3 wins apiece.
No doubt Collingwood matches up quite well against the Crows. Perhaps it is because the Crow midfield is not lightning quick. It perhaps structures itself quite similarly to Collingwood. Also, Collingwood struggles most against power forwards, which the Crows have traditionally lacked. Finally, although Adelaide have prided themselves around their defence, Collingwood has been a side that has found ways to score. In the elimination final, it was Dawes and Anthony who kicked 3 apiece, whilst in round 15 Medhurst kicked 5. The year before it was Chris Bryan who popped up with 3 goals to get the Pies over the line.
However, Adelaide also have a number of players who constantly trouble Collingwood. Rutten has always shut down his forward, whilst McLeod has been the cause of many headaches in the past. Scott Thompson, Goodwin and Edwardes usually feast out against Collingwood. Not surprisingly, out of all the names mentioned above, it was only Mcleod who could manage more than 20 possessions in the elimination final.
At the selection table
Both sides will look slightly different than they did last year. Adelaide are carrying a few injuries and look set to play a few debutants. Collingwood is relatively fit going into this match, but may also play a few rookies.
Injury clouds hover over Porplyzia, Symes, Rutten and Van Berlo. Of these names, I think Porplyzia will play. He was able to get through his practice match unscathed last weekend and has been doing most of the fitness work. If Porplyzia was able to play out the season in 08 with a totally destroyed shoulder, then he should be able to play with a half good shoulder. I do think however he will be kept out of the midfield and play primarily a forward role. I think Porplyzia was at his best in 08 when he was rotating between the midfield and forward because he is a great tackler and good clearance winner.
Rutten, Symes and Van Berlo all trained this week, but have not had any match practice for over a month. They all seem unlikely to play. Burton will miss much of this year as he recovers from his knee injury.
The other glaring omission for the Crows is Graham Johncock who will miss due to the fact his mother died last weekend. Condolences to the Johncock family for their loss.
Young-guns who we may see debut for the Crows are Petrenko and Taylor Walker. Each have had terrific pre-seasons. Petrenko seems to have the ability to play both sides of the ground, but the omission of Johncock may find him playing as a rebounding defender. Walker has been compared to Tony Modra and seems an excellent set shot on goal. Therefore, the Crows may actually go in with a tallish forward line.
Myke Cook may also be a roughie to gain selection for round 1 but I feel he may be an emergency. McKay also seems to have a spot for round 1 considering the few omissions from the team. Jacky may push for a spot in the forward line considering the glaring need for a crumbing forward.
Also look out for Otten and Dangerfield who have only played a handful of games but are in the selection mix. Neither played in the elimination final last year.
Also returning for the Crows is Trent Hentschel who has missed the better part of 2 years with terrible knee injuries. Although he may lack match fitness, his form over pre-season has been promising. He has just about been guaranteed a run for this game.
Therefore, the Crows actually go in with 3 key positions up forward, and a host of dangerous smalls.
Across the border, Collingwood have some minor injury concerns. Heath Shaw has a fabulous record against Adelaide, however he has only been rated a 50/50 chance to play. Harry O’Brien should return to the side after the loss of his step-father, whilst Malthouse has declared Josh Fraser should play round 1 despite some niggling back troubles.
Anthony Rocca was unable to take part in the VFL match on the weekend so now seems a rank outsider to be fit for round 1. The Pies have not ruled this out yet however.
Given the fact it is round 1, I highly doubt either side will take risks on underdone players. It is far too early in the season to risk injury.
Collingwood fans will be hopeful to see the debuts of Beams and Sidebottom. I’m not sure Malthouse will risk playing both in the 1 game, however the win against Adelaide in the elimination final contained a lot of young players.
Beams in particular seems to have claimed his spot with a terrific NAB cup campaign. He was brilliant against Richmond and Essendon. His Grand Final against Geelong was quiet, however his contest against Milburn and subsequent goal that followed seem enough to suggest that he is ready for the vigour’s of AFL. That individual effort would’ve caught the eye of coaches.
Sidebottom only managed 1 and a half games in the NAB cup, each of which he only played 50%. I’m not sure he has been given enough opportunity to have claimed his spot, although Malthouse may have been going cautious with him considering he is an 18 year old. He did look very poised against Essendon in the NAB cup and seems readymade for AFL.
Collingwood will also gladly welcome back Alan Didak and Heath Shaw to the senior line-up after their lay-off from AFL football last year. There was also no Rocca when these 2 sides met last. Prestigiacomo is also looking much fitter than he did last year and looks to have re-cemented his spot at Full Back.
The Collingwood 22 I believe will look like this:
B: Shaw, Prestigiacomo, O’Brien
HB: Maxwell, Nathan Brown, Clarke
C: Thomas, Swan, Didak
HF: Lockyer, Cloke, Reid
F: Davis, Anthony, Medhurst
R: Fraser, O’Bree, Pendlebury
I: Bryan, Beams, Sidebottom, Cox
E: Toovey, Dawes, Cook
If Shaw is out, I think Toovey will claim his spot. Toovey’s pre-season has been fantastic and he has beaten all his opponents in a defensive post. Dawes may also be close to selection considering he kicked 3 goals when these sides last met and may nudge out Reid. However his last few weeks have been off the boil. Cook, Stanley, Johnson and Macaffer will all also push for selection. I’d personally much prefer to see Stanley included to add a bit more grunt to the midfield rather than seeing Cox float across half-back.
The Matchups
Collingwood forward line:
Without Johncock, the smalls in Collingwood’s forward line will cause greatest concern.
Davis, Didak, Thomas and Medhurst are going to worry the Crows. Young Petrenko may be called in his first game to play on Leon Davis, whilst I think Shirley will also play a defensive job, perhaps on Didak.
Doughty may get the job on Medhurst, whilst other defensive jobs may fall to young Otten. Goodwin may also be forced back into defence.
If Rutten plays, I think he’ll go to Anthony. If not, Stevens will most likely play in defence. Bock seems the logical matchup for Cloke. These 2 have had some pretty tight tussles in the past.
Other Collingwood forward matchups could include Lockyer on Mcleod. I think Lockyer has been earmarked as a defensive forward. Given Mcleod’s dominance over the Magpies throughout the years, I am hopeful we pay respect to him. I don’t think it will be a tight tag, but Lockyer will be asked to work off him and make himself dangerous. Lockyer’s form over pre-season has been good and he has proven to be a goal-kicker.
The midfield:
The midfield matchup’s are also intriguing. Collingwood has been smashed in the clearances all NAB cup. However, recent history shows the Pies match up well with Adelaide in the midfield.
Scott Thompson has been a thorn in the Black and White sides for a long time, however Nick Maxwell fixed him up in the elimination final. Thompson was held goalless and only accumulated 17 disposals. Maxwell kicked 2 goals and got 12 possessions. I think we’ll see this matchup again.
Shane O’Bree remains our leading clearance player. He may go head-to-head with Vince who has been earmarked for more midfield time this year. Or we may see Vince on Swan, especially if Shirley is asked to play on Didak.
2 players who are concerning me from a Collingwood perspective are Reilly and Knights. Knights won 37 possessions in the Home and Away match last year and looks in hot form over pre-season. Expect Knights to poll another 30+ possessions. He is normally damaging by foot despite the odd clanger. Reilly has missed a lot of football over the last few years. He missed both games against Collingwood last year. However he strikes me as the one in the Adelaide midfield who will break the lines and push forward to kick goals.
We may perhaps decide to run young Beams on him, or if Cook is included he may get the job.
Tyson Edwardes is one of the most underrated players in the competition. Despite his age, he still presents a danger. He is a goal-kicking midfielder who always does something when he has the ball. I think a head-to-head matchup with Pendlebury might eventuate.
Adelaide forward line:
The Crows forward line takes on a different look this year. It strikes me as been quite dangerous, although it still lacks Brett Burton.
Richard Douglas I think is an improving player. He looks awkward but he gets the job done. I think Heath Shaw or Toovey will get the job.
Tippet may play up at CHF and pinch-hit in the ruck. Whatever happens, Prestigiacomo will stay at Full Back and Nathan Brown will most likely take the CHF. Brown on Tippet would be an exciting matchup.
I think Harry O’Brien is the sensible matchup for Porplyzia who will most likely play the entire match as a small forward. Harry is the perfect matchup for Porpz as he is quick off the mark and a good spoiler. Porplyzia is incredibly good overhead, so you need a good spoiler on him.
I think we will also see a lot of Dale Thomas across half back. Adelaide are disciplined and will employ zones to slow the Collingwood ball movement. Dale Thomas may be asked to create off half back. He looked impressive in this role throughout the NAB cup.
Ruck:
Maric has seemingly established himself as the number 1 ruckman for the Crows. He’ll most likely keep out Griffen. I think Tippet will be the backup ruck.
I for one am praying Josh Fraser is right to play. I think Josh looked in great nick in his first 2 pre-season games but yet again my hopes were dashed when he succumbed to another niggling back injury. Josh was very good in the elimination final last year, winning 21 hitouts and picking up 15 possessions with a goal. Maric won 20 hitouts but only won the ball 7 times. Tippet had no say on the game.
I think Bryan will hold the spot as backup ruckman purely because without Rocca he is most likely to be an imposing forward when not in the ruck. Wood on the other hand offers little around the ground and has not been in good form in the pre-season despite a positive start. Wood offers more in terms of hitouts, but if Fraser is back, I would prefer to have a player who the ability to move forward or break the game up with his body size. Wood needs to start getting his act together because realistically he should start pressing for claims to the number 1 ruck spot by years end.
I don’t think the ruck contests will have a major say in the game, but I do think Fraser’s agility around the ground will be a major advantage. Tippett on the other hand looks to have had a solid pre-season and could prove a difficult matchup in the forward line given his height and agility.
The Rolling Zone
All coaches have basically admitted that the rolling zone is going to be a factor in 2009. I think it will be a major talking point come the end of round 1. I also think you’ll find come mid year it will be less of an issue. I hope the AFL does not overreact.
Adelaide and Collingwood will most likely apply the rolling zone on Saturday. This means we’ll probably see a stack of possession behind the play, and less forward 50 entries. There could be large passages of play where teams hold onto the ball to try and find holes. This was impossible in the NAB cup because teams could not kick backwards.
I hope both sides try and open the game up a bit. I think both look very dangerous when they move the ball quickly. Unfortunately these defensive tactics are a part of our game. No doubt the handball is going to be a huge factor again this week.
The Wrap Up
This is going to be a very even match. Although Collingwood perhaps will go in favourite, Adelaide looks a very strong outfit on paper. Their list has plenty of depth like Collingwood.
Adelaide have a better record at Docklands than they do at the MCG, however I think they play the G quite well anyway.
Much will come down to the contest in the middle. Both sides have solid defences and dangerous multi-dimensional forward lines, coupled with very even midfield’s with a number of rotations.
It may go down to momentum, it may go down to who takes their chances. It may go down to which side has had the better pre-season and can run out the match best. Perhaps for this reason we will not see players who are underdone play.
In terms of pre-season form, Collingwood obviously looked sharp until the final hurdle. Adelaide started slow but had a good win in their last challenge game. They will go in confident but have not perhaps hit full straps yet.
I’m going to tip Collingwood by around 20 points, although I am very cautious. I think writing off Adelaide is to be done at your own peril. Neil Craig is a good coach who gets good results out of his list. The Crows now have a good blend of experienced and young players. The young players in particular look very exciting.
Ultimately, I am tipping Collingwood because the small forwards should prove a handful. Without Johncock and with Rutten underdone, the Pies should just have enough firepower up forward to kick a better score.
At the other end, Adelaide is very young and will be putting an enormous amount of faith in Walker and Tippett. Porplyzia may lack the conditioning, although he has done most of the fitness work.
Footy’s back!
By David Natoli
aka DaVe86
Footy’s back, I’m pumped…and my weekly match previews hit full pelt again for the 2009 season. I hope you have a bit of time to spare, because there is a whole lot of information I’m about to troll through.
Thankfully we are finished with the fake stuff, and 4 points is once again on the line. No more stupid rules that forbid backwards kicking. Hopefully we therefore see a much more free flowing game and faster movement.
Recent Form
Collingwood had the wood over Adelaide in 2008. The Pies won both encounters, including the elimination final. The margins were 31 and 32 points respectively. However, since 2006, the score is 3 wins apiece.
No doubt Collingwood matches up quite well against the Crows. Perhaps it is because the Crow midfield is not lightning quick. It perhaps structures itself quite similarly to Collingwood. Also, Collingwood struggles most against power forwards, which the Crows have traditionally lacked. Finally, although Adelaide have prided themselves around their defence, Collingwood has been a side that has found ways to score. In the elimination final, it was Dawes and Anthony who kicked 3 apiece, whilst in round 15 Medhurst kicked 5. The year before it was Chris Bryan who popped up with 3 goals to get the Pies over the line.
However, Adelaide also have a number of players who constantly trouble Collingwood. Rutten has always shut down his forward, whilst McLeod has been the cause of many headaches in the past. Scott Thompson, Goodwin and Edwardes usually feast out against Collingwood. Not surprisingly, out of all the names mentioned above, it was only Mcleod who could manage more than 20 possessions in the elimination final.
At the selection table
Both sides will look slightly different than they did last year. Adelaide are carrying a few injuries and look set to play a few debutants. Collingwood is relatively fit going into this match, but may also play a few rookies.
Injury clouds hover over Porplyzia, Symes, Rutten and Van Berlo. Of these names, I think Porplyzia will play. He was able to get through his practice match unscathed last weekend and has been doing most of the fitness work. If Porplyzia was able to play out the season in 08 with a totally destroyed shoulder, then he should be able to play with a half good shoulder. I do think however he will be kept out of the midfield and play primarily a forward role. I think Porplyzia was at his best in 08 when he was rotating between the midfield and forward because he is a great tackler and good clearance winner.
Rutten, Symes and Van Berlo all trained this week, but have not had any match practice for over a month. They all seem unlikely to play. Burton will miss much of this year as he recovers from his knee injury.
The other glaring omission for the Crows is Graham Johncock who will miss due to the fact his mother died last weekend. Condolences to the Johncock family for their loss.
Young-guns who we may see debut for the Crows are Petrenko and Taylor Walker. Each have had terrific pre-seasons. Petrenko seems to have the ability to play both sides of the ground, but the omission of Johncock may find him playing as a rebounding defender. Walker has been compared to Tony Modra and seems an excellent set shot on goal. Therefore, the Crows may actually go in with a tallish forward line.
Myke Cook may also be a roughie to gain selection for round 1 but I feel he may be an emergency. McKay also seems to have a spot for round 1 considering the few omissions from the team. Jacky may push for a spot in the forward line considering the glaring need for a crumbing forward.
Also look out for Otten and Dangerfield who have only played a handful of games but are in the selection mix. Neither played in the elimination final last year.
Also returning for the Crows is Trent Hentschel who has missed the better part of 2 years with terrible knee injuries. Although he may lack match fitness, his form over pre-season has been promising. He has just about been guaranteed a run for this game.
Therefore, the Crows actually go in with 3 key positions up forward, and a host of dangerous smalls.
Across the border, Collingwood have some minor injury concerns. Heath Shaw has a fabulous record against Adelaide, however he has only been rated a 50/50 chance to play. Harry O’Brien should return to the side after the loss of his step-father, whilst Malthouse has declared Josh Fraser should play round 1 despite some niggling back troubles.
Anthony Rocca was unable to take part in the VFL match on the weekend so now seems a rank outsider to be fit for round 1. The Pies have not ruled this out yet however.
Given the fact it is round 1, I highly doubt either side will take risks on underdone players. It is far too early in the season to risk injury.
Collingwood fans will be hopeful to see the debuts of Beams and Sidebottom. I’m not sure Malthouse will risk playing both in the 1 game, however the win against Adelaide in the elimination final contained a lot of young players.
Beams in particular seems to have claimed his spot with a terrific NAB cup campaign. He was brilliant against Richmond and Essendon. His Grand Final against Geelong was quiet, however his contest against Milburn and subsequent goal that followed seem enough to suggest that he is ready for the vigour’s of AFL. That individual effort would’ve caught the eye of coaches.
Sidebottom only managed 1 and a half games in the NAB cup, each of which he only played 50%. I’m not sure he has been given enough opportunity to have claimed his spot, although Malthouse may have been going cautious with him considering he is an 18 year old. He did look very poised against Essendon in the NAB cup and seems readymade for AFL.
Collingwood will also gladly welcome back Alan Didak and Heath Shaw to the senior line-up after their lay-off from AFL football last year. There was also no Rocca when these 2 sides met last. Prestigiacomo is also looking much fitter than he did last year and looks to have re-cemented his spot at Full Back.
The Collingwood 22 I believe will look like this:
B: Shaw, Prestigiacomo, O’Brien
HB: Maxwell, Nathan Brown, Clarke
C: Thomas, Swan, Didak
HF: Lockyer, Cloke, Reid
F: Davis, Anthony, Medhurst
R: Fraser, O’Bree, Pendlebury
I: Bryan, Beams, Sidebottom, Cox
E: Toovey, Dawes, Cook
If Shaw is out, I think Toovey will claim his spot. Toovey’s pre-season has been fantastic and he has beaten all his opponents in a defensive post. Dawes may also be close to selection considering he kicked 3 goals when these sides last met and may nudge out Reid. However his last few weeks have been off the boil. Cook, Stanley, Johnson and Macaffer will all also push for selection. I’d personally much prefer to see Stanley included to add a bit more grunt to the midfield rather than seeing Cox float across half-back.
The Matchups
Collingwood forward line:
Without Johncock, the smalls in Collingwood’s forward line will cause greatest concern.
Davis, Didak, Thomas and Medhurst are going to worry the Crows. Young Petrenko may be called in his first game to play on Leon Davis, whilst I think Shirley will also play a defensive job, perhaps on Didak.
Doughty may get the job on Medhurst, whilst other defensive jobs may fall to young Otten. Goodwin may also be forced back into defence.
If Rutten plays, I think he’ll go to Anthony. If not, Stevens will most likely play in defence. Bock seems the logical matchup for Cloke. These 2 have had some pretty tight tussles in the past.
Other Collingwood forward matchups could include Lockyer on Mcleod. I think Lockyer has been earmarked as a defensive forward. Given Mcleod’s dominance over the Magpies throughout the years, I am hopeful we pay respect to him. I don’t think it will be a tight tag, but Lockyer will be asked to work off him and make himself dangerous. Lockyer’s form over pre-season has been good and he has proven to be a goal-kicker.
The midfield:
The midfield matchup’s are also intriguing. Collingwood has been smashed in the clearances all NAB cup. However, recent history shows the Pies match up well with Adelaide in the midfield.
Scott Thompson has been a thorn in the Black and White sides for a long time, however Nick Maxwell fixed him up in the elimination final. Thompson was held goalless and only accumulated 17 disposals. Maxwell kicked 2 goals and got 12 possessions. I think we’ll see this matchup again.
Shane O’Bree remains our leading clearance player. He may go head-to-head with Vince who has been earmarked for more midfield time this year. Or we may see Vince on Swan, especially if Shirley is asked to play on Didak.
2 players who are concerning me from a Collingwood perspective are Reilly and Knights. Knights won 37 possessions in the Home and Away match last year and looks in hot form over pre-season. Expect Knights to poll another 30+ possessions. He is normally damaging by foot despite the odd clanger. Reilly has missed a lot of football over the last few years. He missed both games against Collingwood last year. However he strikes me as the one in the Adelaide midfield who will break the lines and push forward to kick goals.
We may perhaps decide to run young Beams on him, or if Cook is included he may get the job.
Tyson Edwardes is one of the most underrated players in the competition. Despite his age, he still presents a danger. He is a goal-kicking midfielder who always does something when he has the ball. I think a head-to-head matchup with Pendlebury might eventuate.
Adelaide forward line:
The Crows forward line takes on a different look this year. It strikes me as been quite dangerous, although it still lacks Brett Burton.
Richard Douglas I think is an improving player. He looks awkward but he gets the job done. I think Heath Shaw or Toovey will get the job.
Tippet may play up at CHF and pinch-hit in the ruck. Whatever happens, Prestigiacomo will stay at Full Back and Nathan Brown will most likely take the CHF. Brown on Tippet would be an exciting matchup.
I think Harry O’Brien is the sensible matchup for Porplyzia who will most likely play the entire match as a small forward. Harry is the perfect matchup for Porpz as he is quick off the mark and a good spoiler. Porplyzia is incredibly good overhead, so you need a good spoiler on him.
I think we will also see a lot of Dale Thomas across half back. Adelaide are disciplined and will employ zones to slow the Collingwood ball movement. Dale Thomas may be asked to create off half back. He looked impressive in this role throughout the NAB cup.
Ruck:
Maric has seemingly established himself as the number 1 ruckman for the Crows. He’ll most likely keep out Griffen. I think Tippet will be the backup ruck.
I for one am praying Josh Fraser is right to play. I think Josh looked in great nick in his first 2 pre-season games but yet again my hopes were dashed when he succumbed to another niggling back injury. Josh was very good in the elimination final last year, winning 21 hitouts and picking up 15 possessions with a goal. Maric won 20 hitouts but only won the ball 7 times. Tippet had no say on the game.
I think Bryan will hold the spot as backup ruckman purely because without Rocca he is most likely to be an imposing forward when not in the ruck. Wood on the other hand offers little around the ground and has not been in good form in the pre-season despite a positive start. Wood offers more in terms of hitouts, but if Fraser is back, I would prefer to have a player who the ability to move forward or break the game up with his body size. Wood needs to start getting his act together because realistically he should start pressing for claims to the number 1 ruck spot by years end.
I don’t think the ruck contests will have a major say in the game, but I do think Fraser’s agility around the ground will be a major advantage. Tippett on the other hand looks to have had a solid pre-season and could prove a difficult matchup in the forward line given his height and agility.
The Rolling Zone
All coaches have basically admitted that the rolling zone is going to be a factor in 2009. I think it will be a major talking point come the end of round 1. I also think you’ll find come mid year it will be less of an issue. I hope the AFL does not overreact.
Adelaide and Collingwood will most likely apply the rolling zone on Saturday. This means we’ll probably see a stack of possession behind the play, and less forward 50 entries. There could be large passages of play where teams hold onto the ball to try and find holes. This was impossible in the NAB cup because teams could not kick backwards.
I hope both sides try and open the game up a bit. I think both look very dangerous when they move the ball quickly. Unfortunately these defensive tactics are a part of our game. No doubt the handball is going to be a huge factor again this week.
The Wrap Up
This is going to be a very even match. Although Collingwood perhaps will go in favourite, Adelaide looks a very strong outfit on paper. Their list has plenty of depth like Collingwood.
Adelaide have a better record at Docklands than they do at the MCG, however I think they play the G quite well anyway.
Much will come down to the contest in the middle. Both sides have solid defences and dangerous multi-dimensional forward lines, coupled with very even midfield’s with a number of rotations.
It may go down to momentum, it may go down to who takes their chances. It may go down to which side has had the better pre-season and can run out the match best. Perhaps for this reason we will not see players who are underdone play.
In terms of pre-season form, Collingwood obviously looked sharp until the final hurdle. Adelaide started slow but had a good win in their last challenge game. They will go in confident but have not perhaps hit full straps yet.
I’m going to tip Collingwood by around 20 points, although I am very cautious. I think writing off Adelaide is to be done at your own peril. Neil Craig is a good coach who gets good results out of his list. The Crows now have a good blend of experienced and young players. The young players in particular look very exciting.
Ultimately, I am tipping Collingwood because the small forwards should prove a handful. Without Johncock and with Rutten underdone, the Pies should just have enough firepower up forward to kick a better score.
At the other end, Adelaide is very young and will be putting an enormous amount of faith in Walker and Tippett. Porplyzia may lack the conditioning, although he has done most of the fitness work.
Footy’s back!
By David Natoli
aka DaVe86
