September - Win Money In Here.

[rideclutch]

$2.20 is too short at this stage but I think he will get close to $3+ on Saturday which is going to be hard to ignore for me.

You had any bets in Vic yet or just waiting for track pattern?

If they're running on only bad luck beats Contributer, but at the price The United States looks the best of the weekend to me.

 

[rideclutch]

Just a lazy 11 runners for Waller in the Chelmsford - Sydney racing really is a complete joke

Who do you like? Pornichet for me.

 

[Main Man]

You had any bets in Vic yet or just waiting for track pattern?

If they're running on only bad luck beats Contributer, but at the price The United States looks the best of the weekend to me.

Nah I don't generally bet early unless the price is just wrong, I prefer to get a guide late in betting particularly with first up horses, Rich Enuff last week, I liked him but when he went backwards in the market I stayed out.

Agree with Contributer, he has some serious gears on him, I do have slight concerns about The Cleaner and co really pouring the pressure on at the 800M and potentially dulling his sprint but that is a minor concern, I'd like to see him in the black to be honest but I think he wins.

I like The United States but I want to see him 1 more time before jumping on, he is obviously talented but has been able to consistently string runs together since being in Australia.

I'm very keen to see Hartnell back in Sydeny, his first up run last campaign over 1600M was extraodinary really, was a better run than Contributers in the same race before going onto 2 dominant wins. His trials have been exceptional and I wouldn't be surprised if he is better than Contributer to be honest, again I want to see how the market goes with him on Saturday before diving in.

 

[iluvparis]

Who do you like? Pornichet for me.

Same - looks the value at the price having looked the winner for a long way in the Warwick. Some residual fitness still likely to help this early in the seasion. Happy to risk Hartnell this time at the distance but will be on from his second run on (unless he meets contributer).

 

[iluvparis]

-1U

Pakenham - Race 8 - 3.Haradafull +1.3 U

Fair win that! Who was the caller at Geelong today?

1-1, +0.3

Bendigo - Race 10 - 11.Battle of Smoke

 

[rideclutch]

Bendigo - Race 10 - 11.Battle of Smoke

I'm going H2H with you, no doubt something else will win

Bendigo R10 - Staviva - 1.5w @ $3.2

This horse has serious formlines wherever you look. Been a repeat blackbooker over Brisbane and his 3YO spring campaign, but just does too much wrong to really feature in the finish of those better races. Been waiting for him to turn up somewhere easier and here he is in a BM70. Has a habit of missing the start, but they've wrung the gear changes so hopefully he can get away with them, but more importantly see clear running late. Trialled up lovely.

 

[Truepach]

Bit green, but got the job done nicely king max. Well done

Cheers didnt get the chocolate overall but such is betting

Looks like Anoro is in my book of keep far away from. Just lost all fuel on the run home, will have to check the stewards report later on

 

[Main Man]

Vancouver out of the Golden Rose.

I didn't think his first up run was all that bad (wouldn't have backed him in the Rose) but that trial the other day was putrid, wouldn't surprise me if he is straight off to stud.

 

[bombers21]

Wyong

R7- Orbec

 

[Main Man]

Starting to warm to Royal Descent in the Chelmsford with the track coming up a H9 this morning, I thought Hartnell would be hard to beat if the surface was reasonable but the H9 has put the slows on him from my point of view even though I think he is in for a big Spring.

She beat them all on their merits first up, Pornichet had more residual fitness than her having gone a month further with his Autumn preperation and had 2 trials leading in, no reason why he would improve anymore than her, go back to the Doncaster runs Royal Descent beat him home having had a harder run in transit and meets him 5kgs better off in this. She was going away from him at the end of 1400M and I think she will be doing the same again.

Kermadec looks a threat but he is going to have to come from behind her to win and has a bit of ground to make up on her from last start, he beat her in the Doncaster but again had the softer run coming inside instead of going to the outside and meets her 4.5kgs worse off here, I also get the feeling he is set the peak at his next two starts.

She is super consistent, generally improves into her campaign and beat them first up, gets the gun run again and is suited by the track conditions, that win last time would have done her confidence no harm and very hard to beat for mine.

Be surprised if anything else wins with Hartnell the real X-factor in the race.

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

Tipping comp in Melbourne was a wise choice. Enjoy them bog tracks Sydney.

Royal Raindwick indeed….

 

[Gavin Excell]

Starting to warm to Royal Descent in the Chelmsford with the track coming up a H9 this morning, I thought Hartnell would be hard to beat if the surface was reasonable but the H9 has put the slows on him from my point of view even though I think he is in for a big Spring.

She beat them all on their merits first up, Pornichet had more residual fitness than her having gone a month further with his Autumn preperation and had 2 trials leading in, no reason why he would improve anymore than her, go back to the Doncaster runs Royal Descent beat him home having had a harder run in transit and meets him 5kgs better off in this. She was going away from him at the end of 1400M and I think she will be doing the same again.

Kermadec looks a threat but he is going to have to come from behind her to win and has a bit of ground to make up on her from last start, he beat her in the Doncaster but again had the softer run coming inside instead of going to the outside and meets her 4.5kgs worse off here, I also get the feeling he is set the peak at his next two starts.

She is super consistent, generally improves into her campaign and beat them first up, gets the gun run again and is suited by the track conditions, that win last time would have done her confidence no harm and very hard to beat for mine.

Be surprised if anything else wins with Hartnell the real X-factor in the race.

Agree. In fact youd think its almost close to a good thing to place. Any chance $2 place?

 

[Gavin Excell]

I'm going H2H with you, no doubt something else will win

Bendigo R10 - Staviva - 1.5w @ $3.2

This horse has serious formlines wherever you look. Been a repeat blackbooker over Brisbane and his 3YO spring campaign, but just does too much wrong to really feature in the finish of those better races. Been waiting for him to turn up somewhere easier and here he is in a BM70. Has a habit of missing the start, but they've wrung the gear changes so hopefully he can get away with them, but more importantly see clear running late. Trialled up lovely.

Nice

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

I backed Kapset

Well done Clutchy.

Would have been funny if none of us could find the winner though.

 

[Main Man]

Agree. In fact youd think its almost close to a good thing to place. Any chance $2 place?

I'd doubt it to be honest, already into $4 and I'd think she will potentially start shorter, she ticks all the boxes for mine.

 

[iluvparis]

I'd doubt it to be honest, already into $4 and I'd think she will potentially start shorter, she ticks all the boxes for mine.

Having won once in the last 2 years taking her total to 1 from her last 22 - if she goes back-to-back well done to her but I can't have it. Looks a monty for top 5 but I'm sure one will find the form to beat her.

 

[Main Man]

Having won once in the last 2 years taking her total to 1 from her last 22 - if she goes back-to-back well done to her but I can't have it. Looks a monty for top 5 but I'm sure one will find the form to beat her.

Not back to this theory again?

Who do you think will be beating her considering she beat them all comfortably last time bar Hartnell, none of which have any further advantage on her tomorrow and she is as consistent as any of them?

 

[iluvparis]

Not sure - I'll be backing Pornichet - but her record would suggest that SOMETHING will beat her.

 

[rideclutch]

I backed Kapset

Well done Clutchy.

Would have been funny if none of us could find the winner though.

Cheers pal, thought you were home.

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

I can see how this will end:

1) RD will win

2) MM will say the form was obvious

3) Paris will say wet tracks etc etc, will never win again in Australia without one

4) rinse repeat 2 & 3

I love you both.

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

Cheers pal, thought you were home.

Thats a real campaigner of an angle on the winning post. Giving me false hopes.

 

[Gavin Excell]

I can see how this will end:

1) RD will win

2) MM will say the form was obvious

3) Paris will say wet tracks etc etc, will never win again in Australia without one

4) rinse repeat 2 & 3

I love you both.

Paris will also throw in a disparaging reference to Criterion

 

[rideclutch]

She beat them all on their merits first up, Pornichet had more residual fitness than her having gone a month further with his Autumn preperation and had 2 trials leading in, no reason why he would improve anymore than her, go back to the Doncaster runs Royal Descent beat him home having had a harder run in transit and meets him 5kgs better off in this. She was going away from him at the end of 1400M and I think she will be doing the same again.

This is a great point which I may have slightly overlooked but my caveat will be that Pornichet's a 5YO entire and even with the shorter spell/residual fitness, he probably puts weight on a lot quicker too. He had 2 trials last prep off similar break but still took a couple to come to hand, if they've got Cox Plates' in mind you'd think he'd have to have something left. Negligible now with the conditions though.

 

[Main Man]

This is a great point which I may have slightly overlooked but my caveat will be that Pornichet's a 5YO entire and even with the shorter spell/residual fitness, he probably puts weight on a lot quicker too. He had 2 trials last prep off similar break but still took a couple to come to hand, if they've got Cox Plates' in mind you'd think he'd have to have something left. Negligible now with the conditions though.

He probably does have more to come but I think she does too given she has been well beaten first up in her last 2-3 campaigns before improving at her next 2 runs.

She beat him on his merits in the Doncaster (he was into his campaign) when he carried 51kg and she carried 54kd and now she has beaten him on this merits when both first up.

Not saying she is a moral but if you are with Kermadec or Pornichet you are banking on them making significantly more improvement than she has in the last two weeks.


As I have said that Hartnell is the wild card but the track is really against him as it stands.

 

[rideclutch]

He probably does have more to come but I think she does too given she has been well beaten first up in her last 2-3 campaigns before improving at her next 2 runs.

Can't argue with the weight swing, she's the one to beat. I didn't get to see her in the yard, but the way she won (on good ground too) my intial reaction was they just had her more forward than usual to try and pinch a win.

Doubt she's just come back naturally better as a 6YO mare, so she was either significantly fitter, or as you've outlined she's just better than Pornichet and Kermadec. That doesn't say much about those two's Cox Plate credentials to be honest.