September - Win Money In Here.

[sethlad]

Another Tawqeet perhaps?

His naturalism run was more than good enough to win that imo

seth

 

[Gavin Excell]

Im not convinced Contributer is done.
His last 400m was 3rd quickest in race but he clearly blew out in last 50m.
Not sure he can win a Cox Plate but his best is certainly good enough in a horribly weak year.

Just heard Almoonqith is going to syd for metrop, $8 tab but much better available

seth

I am. Form isnt good enough. Ditto ready for victory which has every excuse given under the sun. These animals munch

 

[Viva la Mattner]

The owner of #9 in Race 5 at Stawell tomorrow has obviously been having a decent time of it.

Think he owns another called Barracuda....

 

[sethlad]

I am. Form isnt good enough. Ditto ready for victory which has every excuse given under the sun. These animals munch

Have no opinion on Ready for victory although he never travels in a race.

Surprised how quickly Contributers been written off,his runs have both been ok.
First up when clearly needed it around MV then misses start & works home well in a race where nothing made ground out wide.
We'll soon see I guess

seth

 

[Viva la Mattner]

Have no opinion on Ready for victory although he never travels in a race.

Surprised how quickly Contributers been written off,his runs have both been ok.
First up when clearly needed it around MV then misses start & works home well in a race where nothing made ground out wide.
We'll soon see I guess

seth

Spot Seth 100% re: Contributer

 

[rideclutch]

Im not convinced Contributer is done.
His last 400m was 3rd quickest in race but he clearly blew out in last 50m.
Not sure he can win a Cox Plate but his best is certainly good enough in a horribly weak year.

Just heard Almoonqith is going to syd for metrop, $8 tab but much better available

seth

How does he possibly turn the tables on Fawkner, who isn't even rating high enough to win it himself yet? Fawkner has just as much if not more fitness to come, he was VERY vulnerable yesterday and finished 2.5 ahead of Contributer.

I agree Contributer blew up late but he doesn't have 2.5 lengths up his sleeve against Fawkner and that horse isn't even my top pick of winning it!

 

[FallingLiefs]

He used to be a great rider when claiming as an apprentice early days in Queensland, remembered loving him as a punter. Since he's come back for these hit and run missions he has ridden like a complete busted for mine.

Apart from the Caulifield Cup win, which was all the horse, i can't remember him riding a) a feature winner or b) a decent race.

Tye Angland probably the most under rated jockey in the country for mine, even though he does ride a good amount of feature winners he still doesn't get enough of a crack ridding the best horses, if i owned a good'n he would be the first one id want on.

Dom Tourneur is another i think is under utilised by stables at carnival time, he's got patience and the softest hands in the business, all Blake Shinn wishes he could be. #prettyrider.

Couple doncasters were quite handy rides from Purton.

I like Tye but he's rough as guts wouldn't go near him with with a pliable horse. Id gladly have him on with 50m to go in a MC, before that mark... Probably not. Dom deserves every credit he gets. One of hardest working jocks probably in Australia.

 

[FallingLiefs]

Just on Fawkner, I worry a little about that flat spot he hit. Not sure if it was the cleaner speed or maybe a sign of dourness with age. Assuming he goes 4th up cox plate with his second start in a row over 2000.

Just a small note.

 

[sethlad]

I agree Contributer blew up late but he doesn't have 2.5 lengths up his sleeve against Fawkner and that horse isn't even my top pick of winning it!

how could you possibly know that?

seth

 

[rideclutch]

The owner of #9 in Race 5 at Stawell tomorrow has obviously been having a decent time of it.

Lucky prick.

I like the Authorized progeny though, disappointed he's been dispatched to the underworld of breeding. Haven't seen one yet that can't run.

 

[rideclutch]

how could you possibly know that?

seth

Makybe was a walkathon - no horse from that race derived massive fitness, Fawkner was off a 40 week break, hence why they went for the extra run yesterday when he wasn't scheduled to run - will ping off that.

Contributer has some improvement to come but he had the benefit of a much tougher first up run. Not that it's helped him since he can't cope with the pressure, but I'd be surprised if he has a big spike to come 3rd up.

 

[rideclutch]

Just on Fawkner, I worry a little about that flat spot he hit. Not sure if it was the cleaner speed or maybe a sign of dourness with age. Assuming he goes 4th up cox plate with his second start in a row over 2000.

Just a small note.

Was vulnerable yesterday - didn't get the big hitout in the Makybe he needed, can spike off that performance from a stable who are precise in getting them to peak.

If he doesn't, I'll be with you in the age camp.

 

[sethlad]

Thats great but the question was more based on how you know Contributer has reached his peak?

He was fit when he arrived here last Spring,hence winning a Coongy 1st up in Aus.
Had a trackwork drama otherwise they would have gone to Mackinnon instead of the Emirates which he was never winning at 1600m
Held that residual fitness through the Syd carnival then spelled.

This is the 1st time OShea has had to get him fit by racing him,clearly not there yet.
Lots of judgement has been made on his abilty to handle pressure but both were in unsuitable races,1st up & at a mile off a setback.
Anyway,looking forward to finding out

seth

 

[HeathySure]

Part of why i find the punt so much harder these days is that i always went by the adage fitness is the most important thing in horse racing. In the olden days we could work out who was fit because we had racing patterns to follow, nowdays horses run on 1 or 2 preperation runs before their goal and it makes it really difficult to work out who is going well. I wouldn't write of Contributor, he might be in the different stage of preperation to the others, but he might be one of those horses who goes better the Sydney way of going. I have no clue who is going to win the Cox plate at the moment. Morinho is going as well as all of them and he is an ordinary conveyance

 

[rideclutch]

Thats great but the question was more based on how you know Contributer has reached his peak?

He was fit when he arrived here last Spring,hence winning a Coongy 1st up in Aus.
Had a trackwork drama otherwise they would have gone to Mackinnon instead of the Emirates which he was never winning at 1600m
Held that residual fitness through the Syd carnival then spelled.

This is the 1st time OShea has had to get him fit by racing him,clearly not there yet.
Lots of judgement has been made on his abilty to handle pressure but both were in unsuitable races,1st up & at a mile off a setback.
Anyway,looking forward to finding out

seth

Happy for you to share a different opinion, that's the name of the game. IMO they don't recover in a prep when they're so below expectation first up, so I've taken a set against.

 

[iluvparis]

Have no opinion on Ready for victory although he never travels in a race.

Surprised how quickly Contributers been written off,his runs have both been ok.
First up when clearly needed it around MV then misses start & works home well in a race where nothing made ground out wide.
We'll soon see I guess

seth

Ok is being very generous. For a top level Group 1 horse who was supposed to be one of the best in the country they have been EXTREMELY poor.

He can bounce back next start if he likes but I'm well and truly jumping off the bandwagon.

 

[iluvparis]

Held that residual fitness through the Syd carnival then spelled.

This is the 1st time OShea has had to get him fit by racing him,clearly not there yet.
Lots of judgement has been made on his abilty to handle pressure but both were in unsuitable races,1st up & at a mile off a setback.
Anyway,looking forward to finding out

seth

Can't buy that either - again I think you would have to be taking a VERY generous interpretation to be making this argument. The residual fitness argument, even if you buy it, which I don't, surely can't be used to explain a horse that looks 5-10 lengths worse than he did in the Autumn.

He either hasn't come up or can't handle the pressure. It's going to be Ready For Victory mark 2 next time he steps put IMHO.

 

[iluvparis]

Happy for you to share a different opinion, that's the name of the game. IMO they don't recover in a prep when they're so below expectation first up, so I've taken a set against.

100% agree - Rich Enuff - RTV - Contributer - the spring trifecta

 

[FallingLiefs]

not abandoning RFV although second favourite is a bit silly. Thats the obvious form race in vic, just factor in Press statement and shards now but only a length slower last 600 than Bon Aurum despite being off the bit the whole way round. last 200 easily his best. shades on first time up to 1600. tick. I can see him turning the table on a few but the shades would want to be pretty handy.

 

[Gavin Excell]

Bassett should be outright second pick Guineas

 

[PureFooty]

Having an OK spring so far, but as per usual feel like I should be further in front.
R1 Caulfield, I'm very keen on Atmospherical, who will hopefully prove that weight in a race is the most overrated factor in analyzing a field. There are a couple of exceptions to the rule of course (massive swings in weight, time into prep etc), however, the weight will be no issue in this race as he has panels on the others in the field. 7.50 is ludicrous each way odds.
Play: 7 Win 15 Place Units not locking in a price because I think they will lay him due to the weight.

R2 Firehouse Rock EW. His runs have looked better than they might read on paper, tempo has varied and now 4th up should be rock hard fit and loves Caulfield and should give a good sight.
Play 2.5 Units EW @8 TAB

R3 Kuro Again class goes a long way and he is better than these if he turns up which there's nothing to say he wont he should win. I think if he had luck last start he runs 2nd to Chautauqua, and probably runs a 2-1 chance here. Getting a better price because of the barrier as well.
Play: 10 Units EW @5.50/1.90 SB

R4 Albonetti can go on with it. This time last year was running in very good races and finally gets to a race where there is genuine speed, I think $4 is a great price.
Play: 10 win

R5 Jameka is the underrated filly who tries her heart out and I think is a live Thousand Guineas chance. Overs in this race due to having the ability to sit up on the speed unlike a couple of the others who won't get as good runs. Will give a good sight.
Play: 4 Units EW @11/3.22 TAB

R6 A race where I think there are many winning chances but am sick of getting sucked into Ready For Victory, whom I admit can win, but looks to find some trouble again in this race, and the lack of speed may mean a luckless run again. The two i'm happy to speck at good odds is Strike Force who I think has real ability, loved his win at Geelong where he won very soft in the end. Has Bon Aurum form as well who is right in this. Extra ground won't do it any bother either! The other is Murray Bakers (Bless) Dal Cielo who must have genuine ability if it's winning G1's and coming over here, Murray is a freak and at the price im more than happy to have a little play on it.
Play: Strike Fore 2 Units EW
Dal Cielo 2 Units EW

R7: Fawkner's a gun, and will never run you a bad race, adaptable to slowly run races but can also run a cracker off a hot speed (Cox Plate, CC). He gets the dream run with Ollie. The Cleaner will give another ripping sight again he's just so hard to beat, if Noel rides it as well as he has he'll look the winner at some stage of the race, it's just whether the grey can catch him. Massive lay on contributer.
35 Units Fawkner
10 Units The Cleaner win @6 10 Units Place @2.05

R8: Under The Louvre is an absolute ripper, and this is his Grand Final and he has done everything right so far. Drawn to get quite a good run, remembering he does have that tactical speed when they want to use it. EW all day, just ticks all the boxes. The other is Stratum Star who's a $5 chance with a better barrier, but if the speeds hot he can settle back and give it a real crack,or can go forward if they string along. His form is just super. A little cheeky play on Abidewithme as well, gut feeling is he's pretty damn good, and Moody knows it.
Play: 15 Under the Louvre
8 Units Stratum Star
2 Units Abidewithme

148 Unit Play which is a little higher than my typical 100-125, but keen to play today!
165.13 Return +17.3 units for the meeting.

A could've been day, but sadly Fawkner, Under the Louvre, and even Dal Cielo and Kuro going down small margins hurt. Still a profit is a profit.

 

[sethlad]

Can't buy that either - again I think you would have to be taking a VERY generous interpretation to be making this argument. The residual fitness argument, even if you buy it, which I don't, surely can't be used to explain a horse that looks 5-10 lengths worse than he did in the Autumn.

Im a generous guy.
Probably says more about OShea than the horse

seth

 

[iluvparis]

Bassett should be outright second pick Guineas

Agreed - unbelievable RFV is second fave - he is absolutely poison odds (in before Protectionist and Criterion).

 

[iluvparis]

Im a generous guy.
Probably says more about OShea than the horse

seth

Won't disagree with that

 

[ABitWoofy]

Will TV run in the Moir or will the aim at the Premiere over 1200?

PT gone up at $3.70. Don't think that will last.

Ball of Muscle at 13's seems a nice E/W as well