eth-dog
Tier 1 WW Player
Observations:
Sydney:
Essendon: A close win against Footscray with a few too many passengers, but Jake Carlisle continued his stellar form booting 8 goals, 2 in each quarter and keeping Essendon in the game for the majority of the evening. Paddy Ryder was also excellent, having 35 hitouts, 18 touches and 2 goals
Head to head (last 5): Sydney 3-1 Essendon
Sportsbet odds:
Sydney: $1.28, line ($1.85): -27.5
Essendon: $3.50, line ($1.85): +27.5
Possible sides:
Sydney vs Essendon
B: Laidler - Richards - Smith
F: Pears - Carlisle - Dell'Olio
HB: Shaw - Grundy - Malceski
HF: Chapman - Ambrose - Goddard
C: Jetta - Jack - Hannebery
C: Zaharakis - Myers - Stanton
HF: Lloyd - Reid - Franklin
HB: Winderlich - Hurley - Dempsey
F: McGlynn - Tippett - Goodes
B: Baguley - Hooker - Fletcher
R: Pyke - Kennedy - McVeigh
R: Ryder - Heppell - Hocking
I: Parker - Rampe - Rohan
I: Colyer - Z Merrett - Hibberd
S: Towers
S: Melksham
Sydney defence vs Essendon forward line
This will be the biggest test for Essendon's improving forward line, Sydney have one of the best back line's in the AFL. Carlisle has kicked 12 goals in the last 2 weeks and is absolutely dominating, but Ted Richards is one of the best key defenders in the AFL over the past 3 or 4 years and will be a huge test for Essendon's key forward. Tayte Pears may get a chance with Joe Daniher's clavicle injury, and if he does his job against the third tall, whether that be Rampe or Laidler will be important to engage them and kick goals. Chapman and Dell'Olio will be important for the dons, if they kick goals it'll put a lot of pressure on the likes of Shaw and Malceski to make sure they stay tight on their man instead of trying to cut off attacks.
Midfield battle (rucks included)
This is what will most likely decide the game. Both sides have talented and mostly proven midfields, but have very different styles of play through there. Essendon's strength lies on the outside run, carry and delivery with a solid inside brigade, whereas Sydney's strength is on the inside with a better than solid outside group. Two key match ups are McGlynn playing a run with role on Heppell, who was immense in the last quarter against Footscray and Hocking on JP Kennedy, who dominated Essendon last time with 39 touches and 7 inside 50's at Docklands. Hannebery and Stanton going head to head is the 3rd match up that could make a difference in this game, both know how to find the ball and use it well most of the time but on a small ground it doesn't suit their gut running style too much. Ryder against Pyke will be interesting, Ryder's had a very consistent season and been one of the better rucks in the game recently so watch out for him to try to use his athleticism against Pyke.
Sydney forward line vs Essendon defence
This is the "how the hell do we stop Buddy" part of the ground. Essendon have struggled to contain him, Buddy kicking 50 goals in his last 8 encounters against the Bombers, and is looming large for Essendon, kicking a whopping 33 goals in his last 8 games, including 5 against Essendon earlier in the season. Fletcher is the one over the stretch that hasn't had to play on him and could be the one to get the job because all the other options have failed so far. Hooker against Tippett will be important, and will probably follow him into the ruck as to keep Carlisle forward for the game. The match up that will be interesting is Dempsey on Goodes, as the 2 time Brownlow Medalist hasn't set the world on fire, but 5 goals in the last 2 games shows an improvement for him
X-Factor player
Jake Lloyd is an interesting player, hasn't played in a loss at AFL level, he hasn't had many outstanding games but he's always done something to make him look like he'll be something at AFL level. Last time against Essendon he played one of his best games of the year with 20 touches and a bit of class, could be the one to break this game open again.
Key area for each side:
Sydney:
Essendon:
My tip
Sydney are in awesome form, looking extremely ominous. They're going from strength to strength and I see them winning this by 15 points.
Sydney:
Essendon: A close win against Footscray with a few too many passengers, but Jake Carlisle continued his stellar form booting 8 goals, 2 in each quarter and keeping Essendon in the game for the majority of the evening. Paddy Ryder was also excellent, having 35 hitouts, 18 touches and 2 goals
Head to head (last 5): Sydney 3-1 Essendon
Sportsbet odds:
Sydney: $1.28, line ($1.85): -27.5
Essendon: $3.50, line ($1.85): +27.5
Possible sides:
Sydney vs Essendon
B: Laidler - Richards - Smith
F: Pears - Carlisle - Dell'Olio
HB: Shaw - Grundy - Malceski
HF: Chapman - Ambrose - Goddard
C: Jetta - Jack - Hannebery
C: Zaharakis - Myers - Stanton
HF: Lloyd - Reid - Franklin
HB: Winderlich - Hurley - Dempsey
F: McGlynn - Tippett - Goodes
B: Baguley - Hooker - Fletcher
R: Pyke - Kennedy - McVeigh
R: Ryder - Heppell - Hocking
I: Parker - Rampe - Rohan
I: Colyer - Z Merrett - Hibberd
S: Towers
S: Melksham
Sydney defence vs Essendon forward line
This will be the biggest test for Essendon's improving forward line, Sydney have one of the best back line's in the AFL. Carlisle has kicked 12 goals in the last 2 weeks and is absolutely dominating, but Ted Richards is one of the best key defenders in the AFL over the past 3 or 4 years and will be a huge test for Essendon's key forward. Tayte Pears may get a chance with Joe Daniher's clavicle injury, and if he does his job against the third tall, whether that be Rampe or Laidler will be important to engage them and kick goals. Chapman and Dell'Olio will be important for the dons, if they kick goals it'll put a lot of pressure on the likes of Shaw and Malceski to make sure they stay tight on their man instead of trying to cut off attacks.
Midfield battle (rucks included)
This is what will most likely decide the game. Both sides have talented and mostly proven midfields, but have very different styles of play through there. Essendon's strength lies on the outside run, carry and delivery with a solid inside brigade, whereas Sydney's strength is on the inside with a better than solid outside group. Two key match ups are McGlynn playing a run with role on Heppell, who was immense in the last quarter against Footscray and Hocking on JP Kennedy, who dominated Essendon last time with 39 touches and 7 inside 50's at Docklands. Hannebery and Stanton going head to head is the 3rd match up that could make a difference in this game, both know how to find the ball and use it well most of the time but on a small ground it doesn't suit their gut running style too much. Ryder against Pyke will be interesting, Ryder's had a very consistent season and been one of the better rucks in the game recently so watch out for him to try to use his athleticism against Pyke.
Sydney forward line vs Essendon defence
This is the "how the hell do we stop Buddy" part of the ground. Essendon have struggled to contain him, Buddy kicking 50 goals in his last 8 encounters against the Bombers, and is looming large for Essendon, kicking a whopping 33 goals in his last 8 games, including 5 against Essendon earlier in the season. Fletcher is the one over the stretch that hasn't had to play on him and could be the one to get the job because all the other options have failed so far. Hooker against Tippett will be important, and will probably follow him into the ruck as to keep Carlisle forward for the game. The match up that will be interesting is Dempsey on Goodes, as the 2 time Brownlow Medalist hasn't set the world on fire, but 5 goals in the last 2 games shows an improvement for him
X-Factor player
Jake Lloyd is an interesting player, hasn't played in a loss at AFL level, he hasn't had many outstanding games but he's always done something to make him look like he'll be something at AFL level. Last time against Essendon he played one of his best games of the year with 20 touches and a bit of class, could be the one to break this game open again.
Key area for each side:
Sydney:
- Break open the Essendon defence. It's the biggest strength of theirs so if you crack that you're halfway towards beating the bombers.
Essendon:
- Break even inside. Sydney's contested ball winners are extremely strong, if Myers, Heppell and Hocking manage to nullify their strength at the coalface it's a big tick for the bombers
My tip
Sydney are in awesome form, looking extremely ominous. They're going from strength to strength and I see them winning this by 15 points.
