We're a 50/50 chance for Finals if anything.
Libba won't make it back even if we make the Grand Final.
the F word....
- Thread starter TBOW
- Start date
- Tagged users None
We're a 50/50 chance for Finals if anything.
Libba won't make it back even if we make the Grand Final.
One hand on the cup after Johnno kicked 8 against Geelong in round one. The media went nuts, bookies slashed our prices like a firesale.
What a week it was to be alive!
farstrider
Cancelled
- Aug 13, 2014
- 433
- 450
- AFL Club
- Western Bulldogs
I love the discussion and speculation, but I can't really see us being anything but a distant shot for finals this year. Reasons we'll find it hard:
- Young list, will tire as the season goes on. Could cop a few more injuries because of this and our frenetic game style.
- We're surprising teams at the moment. The opposition is expecting a walkover and we're playing out of our skins and they aren't ready for it. If it continues, expect us to be taken more seriously and games to get a lot harder. They'll also figure out the best way to combat our new play style.
- Still shown up by the top teams, a la Hawthorn. 70 point losses will hurt our percentage and the 8th ladder spot logjam will be decided on percentage.
- Possible upsets from the games we are pencilling in as wins. Can see Melbourne surprising us, and Gold Coast improving from their s**t start.
If Tom Boyd and Jake Stringer's combined goal tally for
2015 exceeds 200 i am confident in a top four finish.
If we are driving to Sydney we have just got off the
ring road, long way to go.
2015 exceeds 200 i am confident in a top four finish.
If we are driving to Sydney we have just got off the
ring road, long way to go.
well they are already on 17 combined more then last year im pretty sure
Stringer- 26 and Boyd- 8 (gws) = 34 so another 17 which they
will do easily.
fargy
Norm Smith Medallist
- Feb 26, 2013
- 7,502
- 9,447
- AFL Club
- Western Bulldogs
I understand people's caution, and yes finals is still not an expectation to me. I also understand people's need to be critical, but when being critical it's important to be balanced and not just focus on the negatives all the time. I feel there are just as many people on here that are overly critical just to try and seem like they are balanced, when in reality they are no more balanced than the overly optimistic!
Very few would have predicted we would be 3-1 so far, those that did would have been howled down at the start of the year. It's hard not to be excited with the way we are playing, and the results we have gotten so far. So finals may be unlikely, but it's great to see our supporters so up and about about our teams prospects! Have to enjoy the good times when you can! Go Dogs!
Very few would have predicted we would be 3-1 so far, those that did would have been howled down at the start of the year. It's hard not to be excited with the way we are playing, and the results we have gotten so far. So finals may be unlikely, but it's great to see our supporters so up and about about our teams prospects! Have to enjoy the good times when you can! Go Dogs!
- Jan 3, 2012
- 852
- 1,274
- AFL Club
- Western Bulldogs
- Other Teams
- Miami Heat, West Ham, Footscray
God damn it you lot, this was supposed to be a year of watching the kids develop.
I don't need to be thinking about what could be...
I don't need to be thinking about what could be...
farstrider
Cancelled
- Aug 13, 2014
- 433
- 450
- AFL Club
- Western Bulldogs
Just having fun here, but this is how I see the probability of winning each upcoming game. Would love other opinions.
5 Sydney (0.1)
6 St Kilda (0.9)
7 Fremantle (0.2)
8 Melbourne (0.7)
9 GWS (0.7)
10 Port Adelaide (0.1)
12 Brisbane (0.9)
13 St Kilda (0.9)
14 Carlton (0.8)
15 Gold Coast (0.7)
16 Geelong (0.4)
17 Collingwood (0.6)
18 Essendon (0.3)
19 Port Adelaide (0.2)
20 Melbourne (0.8)
21 West Coast (0.5)
22 North Melbourne (0.3)
23 Brisbane (0.8)
Reasonable?
Adding up all the probabilities (considering 1 is a certain win and 0 is a certain loss) should give us a ball park idea of how many wins we could expect. Given the probabilities above, we get another 9.9 wins. Which is more than I expected so maybe I'm overestimating our chances in a couple of games.
5 Sydney (0.1)
6 St Kilda (0.9)
7 Fremantle (0.2)
8 Melbourne (0.7)
9 GWS (0.7)
10 Port Adelaide (0.1)
12 Brisbane (0.9)
13 St Kilda (0.9)
14 Carlton (0.8)
15 Gold Coast (0.7)
16 Geelong (0.4)
17 Collingwood (0.6)
18 Essendon (0.3)
19 Port Adelaide (0.2)
20 Melbourne (0.8)
21 West Coast (0.5)
22 North Melbourne (0.3)
23 Brisbane (0.8)
Reasonable?
Adding up all the probabilities (considering 1 is a certain win and 0 is a certain loss) should give us a ball park idea of how many wins we could expect. Given the probabilities above, we get another 9.9 wins. Which is more than I expected so maybe I'm overestimating our chances in a couple of games.
Assuming light injury list and minimal fatigue as season wears on
i would guess...
5 Sydney (0.1) (0.25)
6 St Kilda (0.9) (0.7)
7 Fremantle (0.2)
8 Melbourne (0.7) (0.5)
9 GWS (0.7) (0.5)
10 Port Adelaide (0.1) (0.2)
12 Brisbane (0.9) (0.7)
13 St Kilda (0.9) (0.7)
14 Carlton (0.8) (0.5)
15 Gold Coast (0.7) (0.5)
16 Geelong (0.4) (0.5)
17 Collingwood (0.6) (0.5)
18 Essendon (0.3) (0.5)
19 Port Adelaide (0.2)
20 Melbourne (0.8) (0.5)
21 West Coast (0.5) (0.4)
22 North Melbourne (0.3) (0.4)
23 Brisbane (0.6) (0.5)
i would guess...
5 Sydney (0.1) (0.25)
6 St Kilda (0.9) (0.7)
7 Fremantle (0.2)
8 Melbourne (0.7) (0.5)
9 GWS (0.7) (0.5)
10 Port Adelaide (0.1) (0.2)
12 Brisbane (0.9) (0.7)
13 St Kilda (0.9) (0.7)
14 Carlton (0.8) (0.5)
15 Gold Coast (0.7) (0.5)
16 Geelong (0.4) (0.5)
17 Collingwood (0.6) (0.5)
18 Essendon (0.3) (0.5)
19 Port Adelaide (0.2)
20 Melbourne (0.8) (0.5)
21 West Coast (0.5) (0.4)
22 North Melbourne (0.3) (0.4)
23 Brisbane (0.6) (0.5)
TimlinOfficial
All Australian
In 11 of the past 12 AFL seasons, at least six of the teams in the top eight after Round 4 made the finals
Current Top 8
1 Fremantle - top 8 certainty
2 GWS - similar chance to us of making the 8
3 Collingwood - similar chance to us
4 Sydney - top 8 certainty
5 Adelaide - quite likely top 8 finishers
6 Dogs - similarly reasonable chance to GWS/Pies
7 Hawthorn - top 8 certainty
8 West Coast - s**t
Currently, Port, Essendon, North, Richmond and Geelong sit in the bottom 10 as teams who could make the eight. You'd expect Port to be certainties, Essendon and North similar chances to Adelaide, and Richmond and Geelong needing significant improvement from here onwards.
Also, here's a cheeky little stat, for what it's worth:
In 2009, Fremantle finished 14th. In 2010, Fremantle made the finals and Essendon finished 14th. In 2011, Essendon made the finals and Adelaide finished 14th. In 2012, Adelaide made the prelims and Port finished 14th. In 2013, Port made the semis and Gold Coast finished 14th. In 2014, Gold Coast were set for the finals until losing Ablett, and the Dogs finished 14th...
I'd tentatively say one of GWS, Pies, Dogs, Tigers and Cats will make the 8. If the latter two continue their current form, that becomes on of the first three, and we have the easiest draw
I'm not overly confident but I think we're a fair chance...
Current Top 8
1 Fremantle - top 8 certainty
2 GWS - similar chance to us of making the 8
3 Collingwood - similar chance to us
4 Sydney - top 8 certainty
5 Adelaide - quite likely top 8 finishers
6 Dogs - similarly reasonable chance to GWS/Pies
7 Hawthorn - top 8 certainty
8 West Coast - s**t
Currently, Port, Essendon, North, Richmond and Geelong sit in the bottom 10 as teams who could make the eight. You'd expect Port to be certainties, Essendon and North similar chances to Adelaide, and Richmond and Geelong needing significant improvement from here onwards.
Also, here's a cheeky little stat, for what it's worth:
In 2009, Fremantle finished 14th. In 2010, Fremantle made the finals and Essendon finished 14th. In 2011, Essendon made the finals and Adelaide finished 14th. In 2012, Adelaide made the prelims and Port finished 14th. In 2013, Port made the semis and Gold Coast finished 14th. In 2014, Gold Coast were set for the finals until losing Ablett, and the Dogs finished 14th...
I'd tentatively say one of GWS, Pies, Dogs, Tigers and Cats will make the 8. If the latter two continue their current form, that becomes on of the first three, and we have the easiest draw
I'm not overly confident but I think we're a fair chance...
- Thread starter
- #63
Wow! Great stat!
- Thread starter
- #64
Here’s my breakdown for what it’s worth.
20% Sydney @ SCG – Can’t see us beating them up there especially with them coming off a loss.
70% St.Kilda @ Etihad – Think we are a bit more advanced than they are.
35% Freo @ Etihad – I give us a sneaky chance, we match up pretty well with Freo but lack a little polish.
60% Melbourne @ MCG –Much improved, but I don’t like there possession game. Not sure they stop our run.
55% GWS @ Etihad – Should be a good game, boys should be fired up. Home ground might give us the edge.
20% Port @ AO – Should be a bit of a shootout, think we might struggle over there.
65% Brisbane @ Etihad – The second biggest disappointment of the year. Could be closer if they turn up.
70% St.Kilda @ Etihad – Glad we get to play them twice.
60% Carlton @ Etihad. They are a list in their prime and are rebuilding. Not sure what they’ll be playing for.
55% GC @ Cazaly – Something is seriously wrong at GC. Hopefully they don’t fix it before they play us.
45% Cats @ Skilled – Not the mission it used to be but still a tough ask. Might be tight.
55% Pies @ Etihad – Line ball but I think we roll them. Home deck will help.
45% Bombers @ Etihad – Another tight one. Jake will probably wake up and kick 8 as an audition.
35% Port @ Etihad – I think Port will be hitting it’s straps by this stage. We might be fading.
65% Dees @ Etihad - They haven’t won at Etihad in 20 games. Think we will win this one.
40% WC @ Patterson – They’re a 50% better team over there. Can’t see us winning on the road.
40% North Etihad – Coming back from Perth the Roos might be a bit too advanced for us.
55% Bris @ Gabba – Might be playing for a finals berth. Hopefully that will be enough motivation
There are 6 games with a 5% margin I have given us 4 of them but to even the odds I will split them 3-3.
So those 3 marginal wins, added to the other 6 that I have predicted for us and the 3 we already have, gives us 12 for the season.
By my ladder 12 wins gets you in.
20% Sydney @ SCG – Can’t see us beating them up there especially with them coming off a loss.
70% St.Kilda @ Etihad – Think we are a bit more advanced than they are.
35% Freo @ Etihad – I give us a sneaky chance, we match up pretty well with Freo but lack a little polish.
60% Melbourne @ MCG –Much improved, but I don’t like there possession game. Not sure they stop our run.
55% GWS @ Etihad – Should be a good game, boys should be fired up. Home ground might give us the edge.
20% Port @ AO – Should be a bit of a shootout, think we might struggle over there.
65% Brisbane @ Etihad – The second biggest disappointment of the year. Could be closer if they turn up.
70% St.Kilda @ Etihad – Glad we get to play them twice.
60% Carlton @ Etihad. They are a list in their prime and are rebuilding. Not sure what they’ll be playing for.
55% GC @ Cazaly – Something is seriously wrong at GC. Hopefully they don’t fix it before they play us.
45% Cats @ Skilled – Not the mission it used to be but still a tough ask. Might be tight.
55% Pies @ Etihad – Line ball but I think we roll them. Home deck will help.
45% Bombers @ Etihad – Another tight one. Jake will probably wake up and kick 8 as an audition.
35% Port @ Etihad – I think Port will be hitting it’s straps by this stage. We might be fading.
65% Dees @ Etihad - They haven’t won at Etihad in 20 games. Think we will win this one.
40% WC @ Patterson – They’re a 50% better team over there. Can’t see us winning on the road.
40% North Etihad – Coming back from Perth the Roos might be a bit too advanced for us.
55% Bris @ Gabba – Might be playing for a finals berth. Hopefully that will be enough motivation
There are 6 games with a 5% margin I have given us 4 of them but to even the odds I will split them 3-3.
So those 3 marginal wins, added to the other 6 that I have predicted for us and the 3 we already have, gives us 12 for the season.
By my ladder 12 wins gets you in.
We will go in to every game except maybe against injury depleted GC and Bris younger than our opponents. Older teams wins 60-70% of the time but that includes games where teams are just a little bit older. We will go into games where we are a lot younger.
I can't see us getting any more than 10 wins but I also didn't see us beating Richmond and Adelaide. I love when football is like this!
I can't see us getting any more than 10 wins but I also didn't see us beating Richmond and Adelaide. I love when football is like this!
Last edited:
my bad i mean like from our 2 highest goal kickers from last year like this yesr stringer and boyd on 17 already after round 4
last year would of been crameri on like 4 and jones on 5 would of been our highest after round 4 last year
fargy
Norm Smith Medallist
- Feb 26, 2013
- 7,502
- 9,447
- AFL Club
- Western Bulldogs
One thing that may push us close towards finals is the 13 games at Etihad, our game plan looks perfect for under the roof with the lightning fast transition! Looking forward to the Freo game there (hopefully the roof will be shut) to see how our structures hold up against the form team of the comp.
- Jan 19, 2014
- 6,290
- 9,977
- AFL Club
- Western Bulldogs
^^^^^
threenewpadlocks
Brownlow Medallist
21-1 surely?
timtamWB
Resident Biscuit
Realistic chance for the finals now.
Although we were beyond spent at the end. Will be interesting to see how we play next week!
Although we were beyond spent at the end. Will be interesting to see how we play next week!
farstrider
Cancelled
- Aug 13, 2014
- 433
- 450
- AFL Club
- Western Bulldogs
* IT WE'RE DOING IT
Out: F word
In: P word.
In: P word.
Norm De Guerre
Left of the dial.
Veteran
10k Posts
Western Bulldogs - Bailey Dale Player Sponsor 2021
Western Bulldogs - Ed Richards Player Sponsor 2021
Western Bulldogs - Ed Richards 2019 Player Sponsor
Western Bulldogs - Bailey Dale 2019 Player Sponsor
Western Bulldogs - Mitch Honeychurch Player Sponsor 2018
Western Bulldogs - Nathan Mullenger-McHugh Player Sponsor 2018
- Mar 27, 2004
- 11,897
- 35,552
- AFL Club
- Western Bulldogs
- Other Teams
- Australian Farnarkling XI
Stop posting you imbecile, you're an embarrassment to this board!
