the F word....

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Let's see us back up next week against St Kilda.

If we don't, then that win today added nothing to our win-loss.

If we win next week then I would say we're 50-50 for the finals. And I can't believe I'm saying that in Round 5. Chr!st, the boys have done well this year.
 
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Those pessimists need to look at our draw. We probably have the easiest draw of any of the top 8. Plus we are going to be nearly unbeatable at Etihad where we play nearly all our game. The Port game we will struggle and Freo in 2 weeks will test us, but does anyone really see us losing to teams like Carlton, Brisbane, Saints or Gold Coast?
 
Those pessimists need to look at our draw. We probably have the easiest draw of any of the top 8. Plus we are going to be nearly unbeatable at Etihad where we play nearly all our game. The Port game we will struggle and Freo in 2 weeks will test us, but does anyone really see us losing to teams like Carlton, Brisbane, Saints or Gold Coast?
Only if todays win is a pyrrhic one. I'm optimistic it won't be.
 
Here’s my breakdown for what it’s worth.

20% Sydney @ SCG – Can’t see us beating them up there especially with them coming off a loss.

70% St.Kilda @ Etihad – Think we are a bit more advanced than they are.

35% Freo @ Etihad – I give us a sneaky chance, we match up pretty well with Freo but lack a little polish.

60% Melbourne @ MCG –Much improved, but I don’t like there possession game. Not sure they stop our run.

55% GWS @ Etihad – Should be a good game, boys should be fired up. Home ground might give us the edge.

20% Port @ AO – Should be a bit of a shootout, think we might struggle over there.

65% Brisbane @ Etihad – The second biggest disappointment of the year. Could be closer if they turn up.

70% St.Kilda @ Etihad – Glad we get to play them twice.

60% Carlton @ Etihad. They are a list in their prime and are rebuilding. Not sure what they’ll be playing for.

55% GC @ Cazaly – Something is seriously wrong at GC. Hopefully they don’t fix it before they play us.

45% Cats @ Skilled – Not the mission it used to be but still a tough ask. Might be tight.

55% Pies @ Etihad – Line ball but I think we roll them. Home deck will help.

45% Bombers @ Etihad – Another tight one. Jake will probably wake up and kick 8 as an audition.

35% Port @ Etihad – I think Port will be hitting it’s straps by this stage. We might be fading.

65% Dees @ Etihad - They haven’t won at Etihad in 20 games. Think we will win this one.

40% WC @ Patterson – They’re a 50% better team over there. Can’t see us winning on the road.

40% North Etihad – Coming back from Perth the Roos might be a bit too advanced for us.

55% Bris @ Gabba – Might be playing for a finals berth. Hopefully that will be enough motivation



There are 6 games with a 5% margin I have given us 4 of them but to even the odds I will split them 3-3.

So those 3 marginal wins, added to the other 6 that I have predicted for us and the 3 we already have, gives us 12 for the season.
By my ladder 12 wins gets you in.
Like your thought process. But do you seriously give to Saints a 30%, Bris a 35% and Carlton a 40% chance. Have you seen how bad these teams are?
 
Am I crazy in suggesting that we're more likely to finish top 4, than not to make finals at all?
I have us pencilled in for 14 wins. I'd say it's more likely to win one or two more, and make top 4, then lose two or three more and drop out of finals.
 
one week at a time guys ! lets get ourselves into finals contention first :)
 

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My prediction:
Swans - Win (if raining)
Saints - Win
Freo - Lose
Melbourne - Win
GWS - Win
Port - Lose
Lions - Win
Saints - Win
Carlton -Win
Suns - Win
Cats - Lose
Pies - Win
Essendon - Win
Port - Lose
Melbourne - Win
West Coast - Lose
Kangaroos - Lose
Lions - Lose


majority because we still have 9 home games and 3 away games at Etihad
Wow, only one to pick the Swans win in this thread. Hopefully your other guesses play out so that we can see some finals this year.
 
All aboard the bulldog express even after the crows game I thoughts finals were a year off. Now I am a believer.

Gatorade (alias Beverage/Beveridge) has energised this team now the way we are going we will have ASADA looking at us but all they will find is spirit, class and a Captain Fantastic in Murph.

I might have a few stronger beverages tonight. The holy grail for the dogs has begun it is just a matter of how long it will take to reach it.
 
We're a good chance to win 5-6 of the next 8 if we keep up this level of effort and performance.

If we manage that, we'll be on 9-10 wins with 7 games to go.

Adds up to 20 games. There's 2 other games on top of that.

Trying my hardest not to dream of the possibilities this season!!
 

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