Who is the darkhorse for the spoon in 2016?

[Collins-Langford-Ayres]

Blues by some margin.

The balance of their list stinks.

 

[T2B_]

Blues by some margin.

The balance of their list stinks.

That's not a dark horse though. The idea of the thread is a team to surprise and hit the very bottom of the ladder, not the usual suspects like us and Brisbane etc.

For the record I think while we should by rights totally suck we might surprise and at least avoid 18th, which leaves open the possibility for a smokey. Things can change very quickly in footy.

 

[Jim Dixon]

Given how strongly Carlton are (rightfully) spoon favourites, I will plump with Gold Coast as the dark horse for the spoon. It's possible that their injury crisis continues and their culture problems flare up again making the year difficult for them.

 

[snitzel]

Bombers.

Very shit team with an average middle/forward half.

bookmarked.

 

[mike123]

To summarise the Pies in 2016:
- A young side with four promising kids (De Goey, Treloar, Adams, Grundy)

You forgot Moore, Marsh, Crisp, Maynard, Aish and Broomhead

- One elite player (the lowest in the competition) in Scott Pendlebury

St Kilda and Melbourne have none, so were not the lowest.

- A horrible forward line with a past it Travis Cloke and Dane Swan, as well as a young and unproven Darcy Moore

Swan is midfielder and isn't past it. Jamie Elliott, Alex Fasolo, Jeremy Howe go alright.

- A defence that will look serviceable at times, but will cop some large goal onslaughts throughout the season (similar to the Richmond game)

Were fine at defending, its rebounding they struggle at.

- Some disgruntled under-performing players (Sidebottom, Cloke and Reid) that want out due to the club overpaying unproven kids and poor list management

Disgruntled where do you get that from. All three of them were injured during the year which why their output fell.

- Standard C-grade players that may emerge to become B-graders (Aish, Crisp, Langdon, Maynard)
- And the duds: Howe, Brown, Fasolo, Toovey, Broomhead, etc.

Toovey's a dud I'll give you that but the rest you are way off.

 

[Kram]

St Kilda.

 

[Dez!]

Melbourne are a smokey. I feel like they rely a fair bit on Hogan to kick goals, if he went down, they'd struggle.

We got 40+ out of Garlett as well.

 

[Scodog10]

In the spirit of the thread, Collingwood.

We've gone 5-17 in the second half of seasons in 2014-2015, Buckley hasnt delivered yet, Sidebottom still to sign and then throw in say a LTI to Pendles or Cloke it all leaves us vulnerable if we don't start the season well.

I do think it'll come from Carlton, Essendon or Brisbane (depending on injuries), but we are talking dark horses so Collingwood fit the bill. Considering we've traded out our 2016 1st rounder that would hurt...

 

[Brettox]

Besides the obvious Carlton or Brisbane

There are a few clubs that have a chance based on a lack of depth and impact of injuries to key players.

• West Coast - Top flight first 25, but I still have question marks on the depth. I know they covered backline issue last year, but had a soft run with games. Most of their tougher games were at home. If JK goes down? If McGovern falls in love with Hungry Jacks again?
  
• Melbourne - talented group, but still young. Will want to not finish bottom 3 after trading away their pick.
  
• Adelaide - Sloane - Walker - Talia go down, do they have coverage?
• Tigers - proven to struggle without their big name players, indicates depth issues
• Essendon - who knows. Their good last year was very good and their bad - no emoji for a stinking pile of poo

 

[Lawnchair Larry]

GCS will struggle next season. The AFL experiment is limping along.
Biggest improvers: StK

 

[adammania9]

To me, Melbourne are in absolutely no better place next year than they were this year. Not saying they'll finish bottom, but they'll have to keep waiting for their guys to develop and become a threatening team.

Essendon aren't really a dark horse, but could easily finish bottom two, but I still reckon Carlton's list is horrendous. Their 2005-2006 side would comfortably beat their 2015 side.

 

[100action]

I would say St Kilda, North and the Bulldogs are dark horses for the spoon.

In terms of finishing position

15. Western Bulldogs - Heavy reliance on Boyd, Murphy and Morris (not anywhere near as dependent on senior players as St Kilda and North however). KPD and ruck stocks lacking. An injury or two to Bont/Stringer/Macrae/Libba could see a very low finish along with the slightly harder draw.
16. Melbourne - not a dark horse
17. Carlton - not a dark horse
18. North Melbourne - List is just too old, the improvement of the young/middle aged players is severely short of the stagnating dinosaurs.
19. St Kilda - God like reliance on Riewoldt, Montagna, Dempster, Fisher to be exposed in 2016. Very average young midfield crop.

 

[Dogs_r_barking]

Can't believe they got rid of Bell.
Thought he was one of the only young players that showed something for them last season.

"
Menzell such a gun in the same class as Cripps. Adelaide got lucky.

 

[Doggies 06]

To me, Melbourne are in absolutely no better place next year than they were this year. Not saying they'll finish bottom, but they'll have to keep waiting for their guys to develop and become a threatening team.

Not sure if serious-


The Dees have improved heaps:

2013: 2 Wins
2014: 4 Wins
2015: 7 Wins (Wins against Geelong, Bulldogs, Tigers, and Collingwood)


Dees are No Chance for the spoon in 2016

 

[bergholt]

19. St Kilda - God like reliance on Riewoldt, Montagna, Dempster, Fisher to be exposed in 2016. Very average young midfield crop.

Not sure how we're going to finish 19th but I do agree and am surprised not many have mentioned us in this thread. We had a great run with injuries this year and only had one good win - the Dogs thanks to a massive momentum shift and comeback. Apart from that we beat Essendon at their lowest, Melbourne twice and GC and Brissie once each. Drew with Geelong when they didn't care any more. Not much to write home about really.

The problem for us this year is that the guys you mention are a year older, last year they played 17, 17, 21, 18 respectively. Presumably less than that this year. And I agree that the jury is massively still out on our young mids. Armo and Steven solid but behind them it's something like: Dunstan, Newnes, Billings, Savage, Ross, Weller, Webster. Not many there would get a game anywhere else, except on potential (Billings mainly).

I actually think Richo is a good coach but I expect him to have a terrible year in 2016 regardless, less than 5 wins. I hope the club has the guts to hang onto him into 2017, where we should win more like 6-8 and set us up with more early picks for 2018 onwards.

 

[adammania9]

19. St Kilda - God like reliance on Riewoldt, Montagna, Dempster, Fisher to be exposed in 2016. Very average young midfield crop.

Have Fitzroy come back to the AFL or am I missing something?

 

[BOMBERS 4 LIFE!!!!]

Essendon's forward line and midfield are just really bad, on top of that they lost their best key defender. To say so and so will get better with another year in them lacks any substance when you look at their player development for a long while. Leuenberger hasn't been one of the better rucks for a few years now even if he is an upgrade, he also lacks around the capability which is essential for the modern ruck.

Carlilse wasnt our best key defender.

 

[Dogs_r_barking]

Ok dark horse for bottom four Freo and North Melbourne and they are dark horses and I hope it doesn't happen.

Freo don't look to have improved much in terms of game plan and recruitment, still have big holes to fill in their list with KPP. Pav getting on and some retirements of gun defenders. They will still be dominant at home, but a lot of teams are on the rise and they will not be as dominant, older list which runs the risk of injuries.

North have recruited a lot of older injury prone players, Waite Higgens and even Ray, it paid off this year but I can't see it lasting for another year. Older players can fall off the cliff quickly in Harvey, Petrie and co and there is a gap to there inexperienced players that they rely on such as Brown. If Goldy goes down they are in big trouble.

 

[master bate]

To me, Melbourne are in absolutely no better place next year than they were this year. Not saying they'll finish bottom, but they'll have to keep waiting for their guys to develop and become a threatening team.

Essendon aren't really a dark horse, but could easily finish bottom two, but I still reckon Carlton's list is horrendous. Their 2005-2006 side would comfortably beat their 2015 side.

We haven't made the quality of additions this year that we did last year where we plugged in Hogan and Garlett and got an instant forward line where they previously wasn't one. Or the year before when we put Vince, Cross and Tyson in to the midfield.

But the difference between next year and this year should be finally having enough midfield depth to compete for longer in games and for longer in the season. Still reliant on some young kids and duds, but they are much better than previous options. Jones, Vince, Viney, Tyson, VanderBerg might not be household names but it's 5 guys who are going to compete and win the footy which is the start of being in games. Then we've got Brayshaw, Stretch, Neal-Bullen, Harmes, Kennedy, Kennedy-Harris, Oliver as kids coming through and a bit of depth with Grimes, Newton and Michie. I wish we had one elite wingman to open things up because they'd do wonders for the team balance and make everyone look better.

I'm confident in our backline group and think we've got some nice pieces in the forward line we just lack a 2nd tall forward and 3rd or 4th goal kicking options. I don't want him too burdened with expectation but I do hope Petracca can fill one of those goal kicking spots. If he's fit he'll be good for a goal a game if not more.

Overall we don't have the skill level to beat the best teams, but should have enough strengths to beat a lot of middle tier teams and hopefully this is the year we stop dropping games to other bad sides so that we aren't classed as one.

7 wins this year. Next years goal is realistically 8-10 but with the side set up to then make a big leap on the back of young talent will do me.

 

[adammania9]

Not sure if serious-


The Dees have improved heaps:

2013: 2 Wins
2014: 4 Wins
2015: 7 Wins (Wins against Geelong, Bulldogs, Tigers, and Collingwood)


Dees are No Chance for the spoon in 2016

The Eagles have also improved heaps, that don't mean they'll keep going up. The Demons are in no way walking into 2016 with a better list than in 2015. That's my opinion, if you disagree, that's your opinion.

 

[The_Flying_Egg]

Not sure if serious-


The Dees have improved heaps:

2013: 2 Wins
2014: 4 Wins
2015: 7 Wins (Wins against Geelong, Bulldogs, Tigers, and Collingwood)


Dees are No Chance for the spoon in 2016

We've seen it before from the Dees though ... improvement that went nowhere

2008: 3 wins
2009: 4 wins
2010: 8 wins
2011: 8 wins
2012: back to 4 wins
2013: down to 2

I think they'll continue to improve, but you never know

 

[Seedsfan]

Collingwood. Their list has been so over-hyped by their supporters (one in particular who does phantom drafts) and according to their fans every single one of their younger players is guaranteed to be a superstar, or apparently already is. The reality is that they're unproven, have only showed glimpses of potential and are still a long way off becoming half what their deluded supporters expect them to be.

They're the self-proclaimed trade week champions, but while they spent the whole trade period luring AT's girlfriend to Channel Nine studios, they forgot to address their glaring forward deficiencies. If they think adding Jeremy "Highlight Reel" Howe is going to solve their problems up front then they're in for a rude surprise come 2016.

Additionally, their coach has proven to be incompetent and tactically inept. He is steering them towards the bottom of the ladder at an alarming rate and their fans are happy to dismiss this descending as a 'rebuild', whereas most neutral supporters are aware of the bleeding obvious - Bucks is not a coach's ********.

The AFL abandoning the sub rule will also force their younger kids to run out games and they'll be exposed regularly by the big boys with massive endurance and they will have a lot of poor second halves, especially in the latter stages of the season. As they stumbled (or tanked as their supporters claim) towards the tail end of last season, we saw the real Collingwood.

To summarise the Pies in 2016:
- A young side with four promising kids (De Goey, Treloar, Adams, Grundy)
- One elite player (the lowest in the competition) in Scott Pendlebury
- A horrible forward line with a past it Travis Cloke and Dane Swan, as well as a young and unproven Darcy Moore
- A defence that will look serviceable at times, but will cop some large goal onslaughts throughout the season (similar to the Richmond game)
- Some disgruntled under-performing players (Sidebottom, Cloke and Reid) that want out due to the club overpaying unproven kids and poor list management
- Standard C-grade players that may emerge to become B-graders (Aish, Crisp, Langdon, Maynard)
- And the duds: Howe, Brown, Fasolo, Toovey, Broomhead, etc.

Prediction: 14th to 18th

You Richmond fans are great for a laugh. I bet you rubbed one out as you fantasied Collingwood failings.

 

[Draft Pick]

The Bulldogs. I think it was a flash in the pan type of season. Their attacking style will be exposed.

Dogs defend better than Norf.

 

[Powerstufff]

In the spirit of the thread (thanks Scodog10) I nominate Essendon.
Despite all they've been through there's still serious talent there so it would take further bad luck, further demotivation for them to fully bottom out. Hence on 2015 form they are a dark horse which as @T2B recently reminded us is "a team to surprise and hit the very bottom of the ladder, not the usual suspects".

 

[Bomberboy2013]

It's simplistic to say everyone rates the midfield on two factors.

The best sides and midfields are those with the best combination of uncontested and contested possession as transition has become the number 1 facet of the game.

Hawthorn's midfield is so good because they have Issac Smith & Bradley Hill on the outside, the likes of Birchall also make them the best transition side in the competition.

Essendon's midfield is very one paced and lacks few players who break lines. Adding a plodder like Hocking does nothing to address that weakness.

Using clearances and contested ball as an indicator of a midfield is simplistic and incorrect.

Liked and saved this post. Will respond back on April 2nd