Hung Parliament - Where to from Here?

[Ford Fairlane]

Here's a concise explanation of where the country is at and the likely next steps from Antony Green's blog.

link

Hung Parliament - Where to From Here?

Last weekend Australians thought they were voting on who would form government. If Labor or the Coalition had won a clear majority, this would have been a reasonable summary of what the election was about.

But with neither side having gained a majority in their own right, the murky world of government formation under our system of unwritten constitutional conventions has been exposed to the light.

The Australian Constitution provides a framework for government in Australia. However, that framework is bare of flesh on how to deal with the current impasse.

link

 

[Pessimistic]

Great link - so the onus is on gillard to try to form govt first becasuse od incumbency not the number of seats won.

with the result likely 72-73 either way, at least 4 of the independets supprt is needed.

The negotiations will produce more than the last undecided seat. I dont think the independents would appreciate a move to 'divide and conquer'

PS could this thread be kept free of partisan politicking please ?

 

[Max zero]

Who else is getting sick of the 'three amigos'?

TBH kinda getting sick of waiting. Pick one party and be done with it. All the seats were decided days ago.

 

[Gift]

Who else is getting sick of the 'three amigos'?

TBH kinda getting sick of waiting. Pick one party and be done with it. All the seats were decided days ago.

Yeah its getting annoying... seems like they are milking it pretty hard. Wouldnt be surprised if they still havent declared who theyve decided by the end of this week

 

[finders]

Yeah its getting annoying... seems like they are milking it pretty hard. Wouldnt be surprised if they still havent declared who theyve decided by the end of this week

Nothing can be finalised until the Poll is declared by the AEC and that could take weeks.

 

[TheMightyEagles]

Who else is getting sick of the 'three amigos'?

TBH kinda getting sick of waiting. Pick one party and be done with it. All the seats were decided days ago.

Their actions seem rather ego driven. At the moment, they seem more concerned over which party is treating them nicely, rather than forming a government representing their own values.

I have a feeling they will choose Labor purely because the National party hasn't pandered to their whims, regardless of their conservative leanings.

 

[kimp]

Their actions seem rather ego driven. At the moment, they seem more concerned over which party is treating them nicely, rather than forming a government representing their own values.

I have a feeling they will choose Labor purely because the National party hasn't pandered to their whims, regardless of their conservative leanings.

I don't think it's fair to the independents to lump them all together. Some of them are clearly taking their responsibilities very seriously.

I think the manner in which both parties conduct themselves will be the telling point. Which party shows a disciplined front and one in which they recognise that they have be be willing to work with the independents and be respectful.

 

[JimDocker]

I think the independents have shown a lot of sense so far. Far more than the coalition members that have been bullying them to go their way.

Labor's campaign was dreadful, but they seem to be operating a far tighter and smoother campaign to the independents, showing them that they could work with them.

 

[Nankervis brothers]

Stephen Mayne reports that Wilkie will more than likely announce his decision this Wednesday, and he argues that whichever of the majors he goes with will probably be the one to form minor government. Read Mayne's article here:

http://www.crikey.com.au/2010/08/30/how-wilkie’s-early-decision-will-determine-the-government/

Not entirely sure i agree with his logic, but its as good a theory as any.

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

I think the independents have shown a lot of sense so far. Far more than the coalition members that have been bullying them to go their way.

Labor's campaign was dreadful, but they seem to be operating a far tighter and smoother campaign to the independents, showing them that they could work with them.

Surprised more hasn't been made of this in this forum. I can't believe the level of harassment.

Liberal Senator Bill Heffernan called Oakeshott's home and told his wife he was the devil, and then by way of explanation said he thought he was talking to one of Oakeshott's young children? Fat to the frying pan.

Barnaby Joyce has had a shot at all of the independents.

If the independents go the way of the coalition after this, I reckon they might be lacking in intestinal fortitude.

 

[Nankervis brothers]

^^^^ Old Dark

Not only have we seen Joyce pan the independents and Heffernan make his 'Rambo' call to Oakeshott, but now the Nationals are getting pissed and demanding more representation on the front bench should the Coalition form government.

We keep being told by News Ltd that the ALP is at war with itself, yet the mounting evidence suggests that it is the Coalition that is fracturing under the pressure. Not that we will here The Australian make many noises about that, of course.

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

I'm amazed at the attention that comments from Christine Kenneally or Anna Bligh get as far as Labor being unstable, but the Libs have this whole unholy alliance to contend with. Where is the stability again?

If the independents support the coalition, they were always going to and have just been wasting our time and spouting rhetoric.

 

[Nankervis brothers]

The Nationals are still comfortable potting them. Coalition senators are prepared to berate them on the phone. Abbott is nonplussed about possibly rejecting their demands and/or questioning the constitutional validity of the demands. Seems to me that the Coalition is very confident they already have their support. So yes, much of this process may be hot air.

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

Between Crook not wanting to sit in the party room with them, a Liberal Senator making obscene phone calls, Joyce abusing anybody who looks sideways at him, and 12 nationals saying they want a piece of the action or their support is not guaranteed either, the whole thing is a farce.

Meanwhile another Liberal Senator Mitch Fifield says that it is Labor falling apart because Karl Bitar is being held to account for a poor campaign and Mark Arbib was pulled off the Q&A television program. Gillard explained the Q&A withdrawal and the Bitar part is a natural review after a poor showing.

Talk about lacking in perspective.

Edit: Forgot to mention Alby Schultz telling Windsor to pull his head in and back the coalition. Forget your damn ethics man, toe the party line so we can all get back on the gravy train.

 

[Nankervis brothers]

The fact is that internal discord and factionalism is a reality of both major Parties, but it is only serious 'news' when this discord comes to head in the Labor Party. If the same sort of division you list above in realtion to the Coalition were evident this week within the ALP, then The Australian and all the tabloids would have had a field day. We would not hear the end of it.

 

[midorigreenwood]

according to SMH, Heffernan often refers to himself as the devil as a joke...

but why would you say you were the devil to who he thought were Oakshotte's kids who are aged 6, 4 and 1.

*facepalm*

also he mistook Oakshotte's wife on the phone for a kid aged 6, 4 or 1

*facepalm*

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

I'm pretty sceptical that this grown man rings somebody he is merely an acquaintance of and refers to himself as the devil. Sounds like a pretty weak defence.

 

[The Exorcist]

The Nationals are still comfortable potting them. Coalition senators are prepared to berate them on the phone. Abbott is nonplussed about possibly rejecting their demands and/or questioning the constitutional validity of the demands. Seems to me that the Coalition is very confident they already have their support. So yes, much of this process may be hot air.

Spoke to a young liberal who was very confident the Independents would be going to the Coalition - just to clarify, I voted Labor last weekend

For mine, I reckon the Coalition are placing too much value on the conservative nature of the Independent seats, it's as if the Coalition regards these Independent seats as having gone on walkabout and are now returning home - that the Coalition own, and always have owned, the seats. The "born to rule" mentality

While it's probably more likely that the Independents will go to the Coalition, there's still far too many variables to confirm that, ie. the Coalition bullying the Independents, the state of the Coalition costings, the bad blood between the Nats and the Independents, and the Nats getting concerned about their own importance in Parliament.

The other flip of the coin is Gillard, whose time as PM has so far been disastrous.

Not much of a choice for the independents, when you think about

 

[DeanoT]

I'm pretty sceptical that this grown man rings somebody he is merely an acquaintance of and refers to himself as the devil. Sounds like a pretty weak defence.

Heffernan is mentally challenged. He accused Justice Kirby of some horrible things without any evidence at all, all proven untrue in the end. Yet somehow he represents us in Parliament.

 

[Contra Mundum]

These indies are really starting to get on my nerves. The Ten Point plans they are all producing are ridiculous wish lists. None of them seem to be focused on what is good for the Country despite the high flown rhetoric they were all using (and which was sucking me in) on election night

 

[evo]

Yeah. It is getting embarrassing. Especially that Wilkie clown.

Both parties should tell him to ferk off.

Seriously, what sort of clown joins the army; the liberal party; then the greens; then leaves them because they are too ideological?

 

[Contra Mundum]

Yeah. It is getting embarrassing. Especially that Wilkie clown.

Both parties should tell him to ferk off.

Seriously, what sort of clown joins the army; the liberal party; then the greens; then leaves them because they are too ideological?

I think what he did was brave but that is like the ideological hokey pokey

 

[JimDocker]

If somebody had said to me that 3 former National party independents and Andrew Wilkie would be holding the balance of power prior to the election, I would have thought Wilkie would be the rational one.

I must say that I have been very impressed with Tony Windsor and in particular Rob Oakeshott. They have shown a calm rationale under immense pressure and I think they are doing the sensible thing. I am not sure that an extra week of this is going to hurt anybody. Getting it right is the important thing.

Bob Katter is Bob Katter. He would be a great local member and has been pretty good so far. Speaks a lot of common sense once you get past the big hat. I am not for a minute suggesting that I agree with all of his ideas and policies, but what you see is what you get.

One thing that has come to light is how disenfranchised country people feel. I was talking to somebody recently and said that I never give people in the country a second thought. The 3 independents have been very persuasive and articulate in pointing out how desperate the situation is for many of our rural citizens.

Andrew Wilkie has some good ideas, but he does seem to be all over the place. I still admire him for having convictions though. Maybe we are used to people having convictions that only coincide with neat left/right wing views and all 4 of these guys have upset that image.

 

[The_Reaper]

If somebody had said to me that 3 former National party independents and Andrew Wilkie would be holding the balance of power prior to the election, I would have thought Wilkie would be the rational one.

I must say that I have been very impressed with Tony Windsor and in particular Rob Oakeshott. They have shown a calm rationale under immense pressure and I think they are doing the sensible thing. I am not sure that an extra week of this is going to hurt anybody. Getting it right is the important thing.

Bob Katter is Bob Katter. He would be a great local member and has been pretty good so far. Speaks a lot of common sense once you get past the big hat. I am not for a minute suggesting that I agree with all of his ideas and policies, but what you see is what you get.

One thing that has come to light is how disenfranchised country people feel. I was talking to somebody recently and said that I never give people in the country a second thought. The 3 independents have been very persuasive and articulate in pointing out how desperate the situation is for many of our rural citizens.

Andrew Wilkie has some good ideas, but he does seem to be all over the place. I still admire him for having convictions though. Maybe we are used to people having convictions that only coincide with neat left/right wing views and all 4 of these guys have upset that image.

I think people are just suprised that they have geniune convictions

 

[jo172]

I think people are just suprised that they have geniune convictions

Australians have become unused to seeing anyone have both power and convictions!