AFL Round 14

[TurboBreuster]

Adding:

1U RICH ML @1.99 (Pinnacle)
0.6U WBD -33.5 @1.91 (Sportingbet)

I have also tailed Lenny's MGS bets for Gilbee and Martin.

 

[Rickfromvic]

Adding some bets for tomorrow:

1u @ 41.84:
Richmond 15.5+
Collingwood 39.5+
Geelong 39.5+
Carlton 1-39
Bulldogs 39.5+

Tailing this with one change

 

[denitofinito]

That'll probably turn out to a better bet than mine, there doesnt seem to be much love for melb in this thread.

 

[Stocks_go_Up]

I got love for Melbourne...

 

[Nothing]

TEAC to score over 101.5 DT Points. WB have been leaking points of late with TEAC averaging just above this for the year.

 

[Eskimo_Fennel]

Higgins has averaged 26.5 possessions these past two weeks since changing role, though. Danger, Will Robinson!

Also had 32 touches to Riska's 17 last time they played Gold Coast (albeit in a 71 point drubbing in only their second AFL game together).

Having said that, I wouldn't be at all surprised if Higgins went missing again and Riska picked up 30 odd.

 

[baywatch5]

AFL ROUND 14
ATS - HAWKS -9.5 (x2)

The Hawks enter tonight match against arch rivals Essendon without both of their big forwards Buddy and Roughhead! This will be a huge task for the remainder of the side to lift and the likes of Hale to really step up! But The way Hawthorn play I think they can still come out on top of the out of form Bombers. The Hawks have won 4 of their last 5 losing only to Geelong by under a goal while Essendon is on a 4 game losing streak. Looking closer in the last month they have lost to North, Freo, Melbourne and Richmond! hardly world beaters this lot! The Bombers also have a horrendous record at the MCG. Having lost their past 8 matches in a row. The last time they were able to sing the song was over 12 months ago in round 9 last year.

Hawthorn will press hard and catch the flat footed bombers out with their run and carry tonight. Look for the likes of Suckling, Sheils, Savage, Smith, Burgoyne and little Cyril to run the bombers off their feet just as the fitter Kangaroos did last week. I am also a little surprised to see the Bombers go with all 3 big men Ryder, Bellchambers and Hille? The Hawks have had an issue with height over the past few years and will play a game style that suits their speed tonight. Hawks to win and cover.

AFL YTD: 58-47-2 (+31.43 @ 55.2%)

Nice x2 unit winner here with Essendon failing to turn up yet again . Liking a few today giving away the points.

ATS - W.BULLDOGS -33.5 (x2)
ATS - DOCKERS -32.5 (x2)
ATS - MAGPIES -33.5 (x4)
write ups for all @ blog

AFL YTD: 59-47-2 (+33.43 @ 55.7%)

 

[Cizzler]

I think my favourite tips from others are these:

Event: Richmond V Melbourne (MCG)
Date of Event: 25-06-2011
Time of Event: 14:10
Sport: AFL
Tip: My Match - Richmond to beat Port Adelaide
Odds: $1.6
Units: 10

Event: Gold Coast V Western Bulldogs (GCS)
Date of Event: 25-06-2011
Time of Event: 14:10
Sport: AFL
Tip: Dream Team - Smith to beat N.Bock
Odds: $1.65
Units: 7
Sportsbook: Sportingbet

Event: Richmond V Melbourne (MCG)
Date of Event: 25-06-2011
Time of Event: 14:10
Sport: AFL
Tip: richmond win
Odds: $1.99
Units: 4
Sportsbook: Pinnacle

Last one is great odds and I'd go even higher on the units front. I think Richmond have too much class for Melb but given the history of both teams, anything could happen.

 

[DT_35]

Gia @ $6 for most goals today.

 

[twarby]

Event: Richmond V Melbourne (MCG)
Date of Event: 25-06-2011
Time of Event: 14:10
Sport: AFL
Tip: richmond win
Odds: $1.99
Units: 4
Sportsbook: Pinnacle

Last one is great odds and I'd go even higher on the units front. I think Richmond have too much class for Melb but given the history of both teams, anything could happen.

when did you take that?

 

[Hucky]

Last one is great odds and I'd go even higher on the units front. I think Richmond have too much class for Melb but given the history of both teams, anything could happen.

You can get $2.16 pre-commission for them at Betfair...

 

[flylikeaneagle]

gonna have a crack at a middle:

Gold Coast v Footscray

under 200.5 @ 1.88 (sportsbet)
over 192.5 @ 1.85 (bwin)

 

[sneak]

You could have got 191-200 at 6.50 with tab

 

[Ron]

The odds for the dees seem to be dropping just about everywhere. No late changes so not sure what has caused this.

 

[xellis]

The odds for the dees seem to be dropping just about everywhere. No late changes so not sure what has caused this.

Yeah noticed this, concerning as I am on the tiges..

 

[baywatch5]

Nice x2 unit winner here with Essendon failing to turn up yet again . Liking a few today giving away the points.

ATS - W.BULLDOGS -33.5 (x2)
ATS - DOCKERS -32.5 (x2)
ATS - MAGPIES -33.5 (x4)
write ups for all @ blog

AFL YTD: 59-47-2 (+33.43 @ 55.7%)

ADDING:
PLAYER EXOTIC - DT H2H - S.HIGGINS over D.CROSS (x1)

After having a close look at the player exotic markets, I have found one that I feel offers good value. Shaun Higgins to post more DT points than Daniel Cross. Since returning from injury, Rocket has moved Higgins to the back half in a more quarterback type role which really suits as he is a great user of the pill. His DT scores have gone 73, 84, 95 & 105 in the last 4 weeks. So as you can see he is getting better each week. This is the game he will love and should get plenty of ball all over the ground. The last time the Dogs played the Suns, Higgins scored 126! Cross has been a reliable servant for the dogs but over the past month has had scores of 56, 91, 51 & 86. So a bit below average for him. with odds of 1.97 for Higgins and 1.82 for Cross, I feel they have them the wrong way round. Higgins to have a big game against the smaller bodies of the suns

(1.05u @ 1.97 @ Centrebet)

Also placed future bet @ start of round: COLEMAN MEDAL: J.KENNEDY x2 UNITS @ $10

 

[The Royal Sampler]

You could have got 191-200 at 6.50 with tab

He'll have console himself with effectively $16 or so, LOL.

 

[Vince Masuka]

Richmond -3
4 units @ 2.11

Martin o Cotchin DT
6 units @ 1.85

 

[twarby]

Richmond -3
4 units @ 2.11

you are usually so picky with your odds, can get more for the ML at a heap of books

 

[Donkson]

The odds for the dees seem to be dropping just about everywhere. No late changes so not sure what has caused this.

Why is that concerning? Essendon dropped a long way through the week, and more yesterday afternoon.

 

[Vince Masuka]

you are usually so picky with your odds, can get more for the ML at a heap of books

Such as?

I think being picky with my odds is better than throwing money down the drain, you say it like it's not.

EDIT. Sorry, I believe I read that the wrong way.

 

[Vince Masuka]

you are usually so picky with your odds, can get more for the ML at a heap of books

I can't see better than 2.06 for Richmond ML at any of my books mate?

 

[Donkson]

2.20 at pinny

 

[Vince Masuka]

2.20 at pinny

Cheers, but Bet365 is my only o/s book atm.

 

[Ron]

Why is that concerning? Essendon dropped a long way through the week, and more yesterday afternoon.

Don't believe i said anywhere that it was concerning, it was merely an observation so not sure what you are getting at.