Jaeger O'Meara whats he worth?

[GiantForce]

Like it or not, O'meara's unproven at AFL level. Yes, I've seen him play. You guys react like he's the reincarnation of Jesus. He's 16yo. Sure he's been great so far, but that's no guarantee of future domination. And counter to what Giantforce suggests, O'meara will be worth more when he's a 20yo AFL player with 30-50 games of AFL level experience, than currently as a 16yo who still has many hurdles left in front of him.

It's a bit like a job interview. Do you hire the 35yo guy who has been in the industry for a dozen years, and can start generating money for your business from day one, or do you take on an 4 year apprentice who you will have to invest a lot of time and money on to develop and hope you will one day get some return on investment? Experience vs potential. Security vs risk.

Obviously I'm not saying clubs shouldn't take rookies. That's just silly. All I'm saying is a player who has proven his value at the AFL level is worth more than a kid with no AFL level experience. Consider Tom Scully. Now that he has lived up to some of his pre-draft hype, he may well be worth 2 first round draft picks, but surely you can't argue that he was worth 2 first round draft picks back when he was 16yo.

So is every other rookie.........

He is 17 and 1/2 actually NOT 16
------
Every rookie is a risk. But you need to take risks to get reward, if you want the rookie with the most chance of succeeding, you need to pay more than Matt Rosa

 

[DivideandMultiply]

Not saying he isn't a gun, but everything you've said they were saying about Swift, Darling and Butcher, none of them were top 5 picks, 20 of them were past the 19 mark

Don't expect to receive elite quality for pick one in the mini draft, it might so happen that day 5-6 comes along and GWS have to take what they can get

To be fair Darling is playing like a top 5 pick.

 

[silver eagles]

So is every other rookie.........

He is 17 and 1/2 actually NOT 16
------
Every rookie is a risk. But you need to take risks to get reward, if you want the rookie with the most chance of succeeding, you need to pay more than Matt Rosa

My humble apologies. 170 odd days ago O'meara was 16yo. I'm suddenly reminded of kids who have to specify that they're not just 9yo, but 9 and 3/4.

No team NEEDS to take risks giving up a solid experienced player for a rookie. In fact I wouldn't be surprised if quite a few teams don't bother putting in a bid for this mini draft. We'll have to wait and see.

GiantForce, would you mind posting what you think would be acceptable bids for O'meara for each team? I'd be very curious.

 

[dajesmac]

I understand where you're coming from silver, but Rosa alone would easily be trumped by other clubs.

Masten + Brown I'd be happy to part with, if a 1st rounder on top is necessary then fair enough, it doesn't have a massive amount of value to us this year anyway, but preferably I'd keep it so we can get Jordan Lockyer.

People say it's overpaying but I think we'd still win from the trade.

 

[dlanod]

My humble apologies. 170 odd days ago O'meara was 16yo. I'm suddenly reminded of kids who have to specify that they're not just 9yo, but 9 and 3/4.

And in about 170 days or less he'll be 18, and "of draft age". Depending on when his actual birthday is, he's no more than 120 days younger than someone who could be taken in this draft. Basically every question about O'Meara applies to any other draftee after their selection.

 

[Hobgoblin]

I understand where you're coming from silver, but Rosa alone would easily be trumped by other clubs.

Masten + Brown I'd be happy to part with, if a 1st rounder on top is necessary then fair enough, it doesn't have a massive amount of value to us this year anyway, but preferably I'd keep it so we can get Jordan Lockyer.

People say it's overpaying but I think we'd still win from the trade.

Be a win win trade. West Coast loose a non vital cog in Masten and a good key back and maybe a ist round pick which might not amount to much whilst gaining a potential out and out superstar.

 

[silver eagles]

I understand where you're coming from silver, but Rosa alone would easily be trumped by other clubs.

Masten + Brown I'd be happy to part with, if a 1st rounder on top is necessary then fair enough, it doesn't have a massive amount of value to us this year anyway, but preferably I'd keep it so we can get Jordan Lockyer.

People say it's overpaying but I think we'd still win from the trade.

Masten's not currently a best 21 player, so I doubt GWS would be interested. And with Glass likely to retire within the next year or two, and considering Butler and Waters are very injury-prone, Brown is too important to our backline to trade away.

One thing to keep in mind is that there's only 40 spots on the senior list and in a season where each team has been given two byes, the injury list for the average team is roughly 8 players long. Next year there will be no byes, and I expect the average injury list to grow closer to 10 players per team. That would leave just 30 senior-listed players plus a few rookies to field a team each round.

Imagine if the "winning" bid for O'meara consisted of 2 best 21 players. O'meara can't play next year, and not many draftees can step straight in and be considered best 21 in their 1st year, so the draft might not help fill the voids of losing 2 best 21 players and the gaining of a player who's ineligible to play. Suddenly O'meara's team has even fewer players to choose their best 21 + sub, which would likely lead to even more injuries. O'meara's team could well end up with just 25ish senior-listed players plus a handful of rookie-listed players with which to field a side next year, which is not a good proposition, especially if that team's premiership window is starting to open, such as WCE. The type of team that this situation would least effect, would be those who will be in the rebuilding phase next year, such as Port Adelaide, Gold Coast, Brisbane and possibly Adelaide, Bulldogs and Melbourne. Potentially these teams could afford to offer 2 best 21 players for O'meara, but any other team can really only afford to offer up 1 best 21 player without risking their premiership window too much.

This is why I don't want WCE to offer anything more than a single best 21 player for O'meara. If we were to offer more than that then we seriously risk closing our premiership window next year.

The question becomes would GWS be most interested in a best 21 player from a team playing finals, or 2 best 21 players from a losing team?

 

[dlanod]

Well said. That's why I'd expect the winning bid(s) to be around one really good to solid player (Deledio, MacIntosh, Sylvia, maybe Mitch Brown) with either an early draft pick (Port's or the GC's), a band 1 or 2 compo pick or a fringe player. The actual details may vary. But that's just my opinion - I have absolutely zero clue what clubs will actually offer.

And before Richmond, North, Melbourne or West Coast supporters starting ranting about my selection of players and how realistic or unrealistic it is, I'm just pulling names out that have been mentioned by supporters of those clubs. I'm not commenting on whether or not said clubs would actually offer them up.

 

[yakka man]

Well said. That's why I'd expect the winning bid(s) to be around one really good to solid player (Deledio, MacIntosh, Sylvia, maybe Mitch Brown) with either an early draft pick (Port's or the GC's), a band 1 or 2 compo pick or a fringe player. The actual details may vary. But that's just my opinion - I have absolutely zero clue what clubs will actually offer.

And before Richmond, North, Melbourne or West Coast supporters starting ranting about my selection of players and how realistic or unrealistic it is, I'm just pulling names out that have been mentioned by supporters of those clubs. I'm not commenting on whether or not said clubs would actually offer them up.

Haha very funny, clubs would have to be soooo stupid to offer players like Deledio and Sylvia. And thats alone without any compensation picks. But human beings are stupid and no one knows how this is going to pan out.

Only thing for certain is that GWS hold all the cards and will take the best offer. But I feel that GWS will have to lower their expectaions a bit otherwise no clubs will deal.

 

[tigs2010]

We should fold as a club if we offer Deledio AND compensation LOL.
In all seriousness u may get nothing with the offers it sounds like u want. Meaning O'Meara ends up in the draft to pick up next year. Likely to Port who could have first 2 picks.

 

[GiantForce]

We should fold as a club if we offer Deledio AND compensation LOL.
In all seriousness u may get nothing with the offers it sounds like u want. Meaning O'Meara ends up in the draft to pick up next year. Likely to Port who could have first 2 picks.

Only way O'Meara wil lgo into next years draft is if we don't trade any of these picks (You trade for picks in the mini draft, not player. But Pick 1 will certainly go to O'Meara). The Giants will take the highest offer for him and every other pick we decide to use this year.

But people seem to think this is just another kid......if the 2012 draft was held tomorrow he would go Pick #1. You are trading for a top kids here.

 

[dlanod]

Haha very funny, clubs would have to be soooo stupid to offer players like Deledio and Sylvia. And thats alone without any compensation picks. But human beings are stupid and no one knows how this is going to pan out.

Only thing for certain is that GWS hold all the cards and will take the best offer. But I feel that GWS will have to lower their expectaions a bit otherwise no clubs will deal.

Again, blame the Melbourne and Richmond supporters for floating those names. Basically all we can do at this point is wait until trade week and see what's put on the table. Someone will put up something decent for these picks, that's without a doubt. It probably won't be as good as the top end of the scale (e.g. the WCE fan who suggested Mitch Brown, Masten and their first rounder, which I'd love) but it definitely won't be as bad as some of the options other supporters have floated as "take it or leave it" suggestions.

We should fold as a club if we offer Deledio AND compensation LOL.
In all seriousness u may get nothing with the offers it sounds like u want. Meaning O'Meara ends up in the draft to pick up next year. Likely to Port who could have first 2 picks.

Deledio was raised by one of your fellow Richmond supporters. It'd be a Deledio + fringe player given my formula, not Deledio + the compo pick. That'd be stupid unless Richmond was really high on O'Meara.

And what offers I'm guessing at (not what I want. What I want would be a Selwood, Bartel and Vardy package. After all it's good to have dreams.) makes absolutely no difference to what the club would get because, as I've mentioned half a million times, it's purely based off what other clubs offer us.

 

[tigs2010]

Only way O'Meara wil lgo into next years draft is if we don't trade any of these picks (You trade for picks in the mini draft, not player. But Pick 1 will certainly go to O'Meara). The Giants will take the highest offer for him and every other pick we decide to use this year.

But people seem to think this is just another kid......if the 2012 draft was held tomorrow he would go Pick #1. You are trading for a top kids here.

I understand how it works but if the giants think that a club is going to offer their best players PLUS a sweetener then they won't get anything. I already know we actually won't be making an offer so doesn't really affect us but just saying its going to take a really dumb club to give up a best player with 6 or 7 years development and sweetener for a 17yo no matter how good as you will have to develop him again. Which means Giants have to lower their expectations or get nothing for the picks and O'Meara goes to the draft does he not?

 

[dlanod]

Which means Giants have to lower their expectations or get nothing for the picks and O'Meara goes to the draft does he not?

Assuming all 17 clubs think exactly the same and don't make a great offer for O'Meara, then the Giants would (presumably) accept the best offer out of those. It's not a question of the Giants getting nothing. The only way that would happen is if none of the 17 clubs put in an offer. I think the expectations with O'Meara is at such a degree that at least a few clubs would put in solid offers.

 

[tigs2010]

Assuming all 17 clubs think exactly the same and don't make a great offer for O'Meara, then the Giants would (presumably) accept the best offer out of those. It's not a question of the Giants getting nothing. The only way that would happen is if none of the 17 clubs put in an offer. I think the expectations with O'Meara is at such a degree that at least a few clubs would put in solid offers.

Which would be lowering expectations of what the picks are worth which is what i said. I would happily offer up Foley and our compo for a pick and happy if u wanted us to throw in a Morton/Connors/Tuck/Jacko. Not expecting pick 1 either. That's something we can afford to give up that would have value.

 

[dlanod]

To quote myself, "That's why I'd expect the winning bid(s) to be around one really good to solid player (Deledio, MacIntosh, Sylvia, maybe Mitch Brown) with either an early draft pick (Port's or the GC's), a band 1 or 2 compo pick or a fringe player."

To my mind Foley and the compo pick would definitely qualify as something I'd expect to be in the ballpack of what gets accepted - I'd rate Foley as a solid player.

 

[tigs2010]

To quote myself, "That's why I'd expect the winning bid(s) to be around one really good to solid player (Deledio, MacIntosh, Sylvia, maybe Mitch Brown) with either an early draft pick (Port's or the GC's), a band 1 or 2 compo pick or a fringe player."

To my mind Foley and the compo pick would definitely qualify as something I'd expect to be in the ballpack of what gets accepted - I'd rate Foley as a solid player.

Have heard u want top 5/6 players from clubs. Foley would be that. Can't see us giving up Deledio/Cotchin/Martin/Riewoldt. Foley probably sits in at 5th currently. Rance/Vickery we can't afford to lose due to the positions they play. If throwing our compo pick in gets us in the mini-draft im happy with either of the picks even if its not O'Meara. Would be equally happy with Crouch/Grundy.

 

[ThePuppetMaster]

I think the only way we will realistically get O'Meara is if Sylvia wants to leave. Or if GWS feel the need for a quality negator of gorillas in Warnock. (too bad that's all he does)

 

[Jonts]

But the thing i find most interesting is

Even if pick 1 in this draft is worth an elite or top 5 pick, if noone appears interested then they will have to take the best offer, that may be Syvlvia or it may be a late teens draft pick

Dunno if i want port to try and get Jaeger though, would rather we keep pick 4 and go after Kennedy and or Grundy

 

[dlanod]

Have heard u want top 5/6 players from clubs. Foley would be that. Can't see us giving up Deledio/Cotchin/Martin/Riewoldt. Foley probably sits in at 5th currently. Rance/Vickery we can't afford to lose due to the positions they play. If throwing our compo pick in gets us in the mini-draft im happy with either of the picks even if its not O'Meara. Would be equally happy with Crouch/Grundy.

I'm expecting the "top five" quote to be a starting position from which GWS is expecting to negotiate down. It's a standard negotiating tactic because it helps anchor the offers they'd receive. I'd be surprised if we do receive a top five player for one of these picks because it really is selling your farm for an unknown draftee.

 

[tigs2010]

I'm expecting the "top five" quote to be a starting position from which GWS is expecting to negotiate down. It's a standard negotiating tactic because it helps anchor the offers they'd receive. I'd be surprised if we do receive a top five player for one of these picks because it really is selling your farm for an unknown draftee.

I think a club will probably offer u possibly their 5th/6th best to get him. Obviously gotta give something to get something but considering u guys have to trade them (can't keep them) can't see teams paying overs for them. Would just be a dumb list management move. You would probably ask for Lids...we offer Foley and then we may agree on Foley and sweetener from our end.

 

[Demons09]

After watching Jaegers debut for the Perth yesterday, i would say his asking price would have gone up.

After copping some early attention from Peel in which he brushed aside he preceded to kick 4 goals in a match winning effort, its the way he kicked those 4 goals that stood out all class.

I reckon Freo would need to give a bit to get him,but after last nights effort against the Roo's i reckon there would only be about 5 to 6 players that would be non-negotiable.

 

[blaze036]

the thing is giantforce u really cant gaurentee O'meara will be a star when his so young, so its a bit of a risk. Whilst O'meara is worth tonnes, many clubs will turn down what GWS put on the table, and thus lower the cost. The clubs are smart enough not to turn this into a bidding war and lose a lot for a player who cant even play the next year and might not even turn out that great (as many number 1 picks do).

IMO GWS will want a lot, but it will come down to who has the best comp of young fringe mature age bodies to give. Lets not forget GWS HAVE to give away these picks, so there not in a great barginning position if clubs keep turning down their ridiculas offers.

Edit* people need to keep a lid on and remember O'Meara MIGHT not even be "the next judd". And fans will be in outrage if they lose their best players for somone who cant even play for a year plus, the memberships +attendence alone would deter clubs.

 

[swansfan51]

the thing is giantforce u really cant gaurentee O'meara will be a star when his so young, so its a bit of a risk. Whilst O'meara is worth tonnes, many clubs will turn down what GWS put on the table, and thus lower the cost. The clubs are smart enough not to turn this into a bidding war and lose a lot for a player who cant even play the next year and might not even turn out that great (as many number 1 picks do).

IMO GWS will want a lot, but it will come down to who has the best comp of young fringe mature age bodies to give. Lets not forget GWS HAVE to give away these picks, so there not in a great barginning position if clubs keep turning down their ridiculas offers.

Edit* people need to keep a lid on and remember O'Meara MIGHT not even be "the next judd". And fans will be in outrage if they lose their best players for somone who cant even play for a year plus, the memberships +attendence alone would deter clubs.

To put it simply - O'Meara is as good as Coniglio. Coniglio is going to be the number 1 draft pick. A package of fringe mature players never has been, and never will be, a good trade for the number 1 pick.

 

[blaze036]

except this isnt a normal trade, this is a trade that gws MUST DO, so highest bidder wins basically doesnt matter the price unlike normal trades where u can just say no