Is Carltons 2012 Season Over?

[DivideandMultiply]

When you're laying a shepherd, you generally can't receive. When you're putting pressure on through tackling or corralling you're generally out of position to receive. That's the point. They don't do those things because it is not in their strategy to win.

They may not have looked like they were spreading much, but that's because in the guts they weren't getting their hands on the ball at all. There was no opportunity to spread, and as they aren't taught to run both ways, they just watched as the Eagles midfield blitzed them.

They are a side that structures up very offensively because they have to, else they will not score. They back their talent in to win it, but when it does not go their way, they look diabolical.

All teams have designated players and set pieces where players position themselves defensively at stoppages. This is an absolute.

Generally you will also find the harder running, defensively minded mids like say a Carrazzo or Selwood will provide support for the ball carrier then work back into position.

It also does not explain why they failed run hard enough to provide marking options or pressure our ball carriers/receivers effectively.

I acknowledge that part of the issue is gameplan, but an offensive setup does not mean purely offensive. Judd at least recognised the issue in a recent interview.

 

[Clay Davis]

All teams have designated players and set pieces where players position themselves defensively. This is an absolute.

Generally you will also find the harder running, defensively minded mids like say a Carrazzo or Selwood will provide support for the ball carrier then work back into position.

It also does not explain why they failed run hard enough to provide marking options or pressure our ball carriers/receivers effectively.

I acknowledge that part of the issue is gameplan, but an offensive setup does not mean purely offensive. Judd at least recognised the issue in a recent interview.

It doesn't have to be purely offensive, just offensive to the point that their priority is for gambling on their players winning the ball. It only takes one player to be slightly out of position to create an overlap which works more opposition midfielders into space. I've seen this time and again with Freo midfields - where they bank on the player winning the ball and gamble ahead of the play. It might only be a single step, but you can tell which players are taking the gambles. Usually we have done this because our forward structure has been a nightmare, it was especially apparent last year under Harvey (who Ratten is sounding eerily similar to).

Carlton, more often than not, take the gamble. When it works they have miles of space and kick big scores. Against any side with a decent defensive mindset, they will have their pants pulled down.

 

[DivideandMultiply]

It doesn't have to be purely offensive, just offensive to the point that their priority is for gambling on their players winning the ball. It only takes one player to be grossly out of position to create an overlap which works more opposition midfielders into space. I've seen this time and again with Freo midfields - where they bank on the player winning the ball and gamble ahead of the play. It might only be a single step, but you can tell which players are taking the gambles.

Carlton, more often than not, take the gamble. When it works they have miles of space and kick big scores. Against any side with a decent defensive mindset, they will have their pants pulled down.

The problem is Clay, we have the same approach.

2011 was completely different, but now we are backing our mids to win quality of clearance not volume. In 2011 if we did not win the ball, we would lock it down, now if we do not our HF's run to apply pressure and mids tend to run back to aid our defenders along HB (very common sight a line of Eagles mids running back in a set pattern as soon as we lose the ball). Its all about workrate and supporting the defenders.

Likewise when we win the ball, we don't bomb long as often. Much like Carlton should be doing we have players quickly run to the defensive side to recieve the handball, the clearance winner will either block, or run the overlap and the other player will set up defensively. This will lead to a releasing kick along the wing, or HBF where Hurn, Gaff, Waters, Schofield etc. will receive and kick or carry to the open side.

Again, Carltons players were not doing this. I did not see players following up to lay a block often enough, or running to position without the ball from a stoppage, or a player like Yarran running from HB to support.

Part of it is gameplan, a big part is workrate and attitude.

 

[Clay Davis]

I don't see that much difference between 2011 and 2012 Eagles, tbh. Midfield's working a little better, but that's because the young mids are older and Naitanui has incrementally improved. Other than that, it's the basically same gameplan.

Workrate and attitude - meh, sounds like one of those ethereal things like culture that fans attach to clubs without any basis. Carlton have shown great workrate and attitude in games this year and for a few years. Problem is with their coach and the style he has them play, because he cheated in the early years of their development. They just cannot do it against top teams or anyone that goes up against them with a real defensive and contested focus.

 

[DivideandMultiply]

I don't see that much difference between 2011 and 2012 Eagles, tbh. Midfield's working a little better, but that's because the young mids are older and Naitanui has incrementally improved. Other than that, it's the basically same gameplan.

Workrate and attitude - meh, sounds like one of those ethereal things like culture that fans attach to clubs without any basis. Carlton have shown great workrate and attitude in games this year and for a few years. Problem is with their coach and the style he has them play, because he cheated in the early years of their development. They just cannot do it against top teams or anyone that goes up against them with a real defensive and contested focus.

Then Clay, you don't watch us often enough. There are quite a few starkly noticeable differences.

Maybe you never played enough football, workrate is the key. Running hard enough to get into position, hard enough to provide multiple leads or a marking option in space, hard enough to get to additional contests, hard enough to provide follow up efforts or support for a team mate. It is not fans but players and coaches who emphasise workrate over and over.

I think you are wrong mate, you have only identified a small part of the problem. Change in focus with their kick ins and greater defensive pressure when not in possession yesterday is what swung the game. Once they started to get more of the ball then players started to work into space more often to provide running or marking options. A little gameplan adjustment but mostly work rate and attitude.

 

[Blue Heart]

This makes me happy.

Over the years, I've always hated Carlton.

Truly a cesspool.

I am sorry but it wasn't a statement to make you happy, ... only a one eyed moron would take it as such.

And BTW thanks for showing me and everyone else who has taken the time to read and post on your "thread", that you are indeed a troll, writing an OP inspired by your hatred of Carlton, rather than seeking out any kind of logical answers or reasons as to whether Carlton can make the 8 or not.

Next time you feel the urge to troll Carlton under the guise of asking a legitimate football question, please state your true position in your OP, so others like me, won't waste their time reading your biased agenda driven drivel.

Fortunately, I have more respect for your footy team than I have for you as supporter.

 

[DivideandMultiply]

I am sorry but it wasn't a statement to make you happy, ... only a one eyed moron would take it as such.

And BTW thanks for showing me and everyone else who has taken the time to read and post on your "thread", that you are indeed a troll, writing an OP inspired by your hatred of Carlton, rather than seeking out any kind of logical answers or reasons as to whether Carlton can make the 8 or not.

Next time you feel the urge to troll Carlton under the guise of asking a legitimate football question, please state your true position in your OP, so others like me, won't waste their time reading your biased agenda driven drivel.

Fortunately, I have more respect for your footy team than I have for you as supporter.

Er he wasn't the OP....... nice rant though.

 

[Adam Selwood]

Their first choice 22 would be top 4 - that includes Waite + Murphy

Their depth is terrible though and was exposed badly last night. Lack of a key target hurts too. The gameplan of 'kick it over the last line and hope Betts/Garlett can run into an open goal' is not sustainable.

 

[jonoman89]

I think we're cooked personally. We can afford to lose maybe 3 of our last 10 games... a ridiculous ask considering we've won one of our last 6, that being against the then winless Melbourne.

Reasons for this:
- injuries, pre-season and during season, have targetted our biggest areas of weakness: key position forwards and inside midfielders
- our list does not have the required depth to be top 4 (all teams get injuries, though not as quite as bad as us usually)
- our game plan has been found out entirely. teams flood our stoppages every week now.
- we don't have a strong enough structure to assist new players or average players do their job and help the team....we win games on talent, not tactics.

Personally I think Ratten should seriously come into calculation for sacking. He's had 5 and a half years to get the team into the top 4, albeit from a very average position. I don't think he's done enough to warrant another year considering Malthouse would likely be more than happy to take over.

I hope that we turn it around, Ratts keeps his job and we go on to give the finals a shake with key players back and fit. But very unlikely.

Players and coaching staff need to take responsibility for this mess. The club needs a shake up from top to bottom.

 

[Zombie Woof]

It's not ever over, even if you want it to be.

• Lack of 2 good strong key forwards. Betts one-out against Glass? Really?
• A vague, peculiar sense that the general personality of the gaggle of mids is, by a fluke of drafting, somewhat introverted or...just not out-there enough...or not the right combo of personalities. Judd burned at WCE because the mid group played at a higher, bolder level, and he had one or two minders. Now he's just burned..out
• Coach does not seem talented in handling the psychological aspect, and so not neutralising or fixing the second point. (Urges them to emulate the Lions? Who won because we played dead flat, and they played at home? Or was he telling them they have much to learn from the Lions' attitude? "The pressure is on the Eagles!" Or maybe "another, lowish, not v good team just beat them, so we should have a real crack here, guys"...all these are off-key. Crap psychology.)

They must try to learn or grow for next year, but the present squad will not achieve the goal they set.

 

[Magpie Since 1986]

Depends on your definition of 'over'.

If by 'over' you mean can't win the premiership then yes it is almost certainly over.

They can still win a final or two, perhaps make a prelim which would still be an improvement on anything theyve done in the last decade, but not good enough to win 4 tough finals in a row.

 

[soyouthink10]

AS i said in another thread last week their season has been over for a little while now. They wont make the top 4 so they cant win the flag (as history tells us). Really there are only 7 teams that will realistically challenge for the 4. WC, ADEL,COLL,GEEL,SYD,ESS,HAW...for the reason their season is over.

 

[Patron]

Some people are being a bit harsh. Their best team is very good but their depth is atrocious. They rely so heavily on a few players eg. Judd, Murphy. If they loose a player they have very little to fill it with. In theory they can still make finals and if by then they have their full team they could be dangerous. TBH though im not even completely sure they will make finals anymore. They won't make the top 4 and that normally means no premiership so it's kind of over.

 

[KissStephanie]

Carlton would have been looking worse if St.Kilda had beaten Adelaide. The Saints four points loss means they're still only percentage outside the eight, so their season isn't over yet, although they won't make the top-4 as they had promised. Matches against Richmond and St.Kilda will have a huge bearing on 8th spot, and they may have to win seven of their last ten matches to make the finals.

 

[QS]

Backline. Issues there for starters. Makings of a great midfield and a good small forward line (yes they can still be effective), but the backline was all at sea when the press was used early in the game on Thursday night.

Judd isn't the problem whollus bollus, but the reliance on him to do things he just can't do as effectively anymore may be of detriment. Injuries happen everywhere, and very, very rarely will a side be able to field a 'full-strength' outfit on the day, so injuries aren't the issue.

Are they physically fit enough to run out a full game? Yes. Are they a impressively slick running machine? Definitely. Are they mentally hardened to run out a full game? Questionable. Is the coach and his reluctance to change tack the issue? Perhaps.

I wouldn't go as far to say the season is over, but it will take some pretty marked changes on game day from here on in to salvage something, they may play finals footy and may be fortunate enough to run into a victorian side so they don't have to travel, but else if nothing changes they will, put frankly, be making up the numbers.

 

[DrEvil]

Wtf is with West Coast supporters?

they hate carlton, like every other sane person

 

[kman]

Carlton, touted by many as 2012 premiership favourites early in the season appear to have come unstuck and in a serious way. They are now sitting outside of the 8, with 6 wins and 6 losses just over half way through their season. Their next two matches are against Hawthorn, one of the top teams who have an excellent recent record against Carlton and Collingwood in red hot form and who should probably be the premiership favourites.

Right now the questions facing Carlton are where did it all go wrong and how can we fix it.

So where did it all go wrong? Most Carlton supporters will probably jump at the injury excuse, since this is probably second nature, but as we have seen the good sides that have been hit with injuries in Collingwood and WC find a way to win regardless.

Is it depth and therefore drafting, well Carlton have famously had a host of early picks throughout the last decade and on paper should have assembled a formidable squad capable of beating the best.

This then leads to the question that is it the staff, development, coaching or otherwise but I don't think this is the answer. There is only so far you can blame coaching staff for the failings of talented players.

No my theory is that the problem is that dirty word "culture", in this case a blame free culture. Simply put, blame cannot always be directed at the uncontrollables or external factors it has to start at the top.

The head coach Brett Ratten is becoming notorious for not only his lack of game day flexibility but also his barracking on the sidelines. He also has a penchant for mentioning things like injuries or alluding to umpiring factors.
The Carlton captain and champion Chris Judd, who is seriously under-performing and failing in his duties as captain, who should share in much of the blame, instead recieves effusive praise.
The early draft picks in Gibbs or Walker seem to escape criticism but also responsibility when they fail to stand up, yet it is clear from their lack of permanent position they are failing this year to even lock down modest roles.
This in turn has created a playing group that don't do the team things, don't do the hard stuff (famous Blues free footy) and don't stand up under pressure.
Fed by the the failure of those in positions of responsibility to take responsibility and acceptance of this by the fans, a truly unaccountable and blame free culture has developed.

Great evidence of this was seen on the weekend. Carltons 2012 season was on the line and Carlton instead of showing heart, were beaten across the park largely down to an insipid 1st half coaching and football display. Instead of embracing blame, it seems the players buoyed by CFC fan outrage have chosen to blame anyone but themselves. If only they had shown this much fight in matches that counted maybe things would be different.

TLDR: Personally I think Carlton are cooked. A blame free culture has festered and they need new staff, a shakedown of the playing group and hopefully then a fanbase that will clue in to where responsibility lies and maybe then the club can have some success.

Going through the whole thread you have replied to people who have only said positive things about Carlton with a negative. It seems that you have already made you mind up that our season is over. You are a Carlton hater, troll obvious troll...

 

[RogersResults]

For those interested in the precedents.

Since the introduction of the final eight, after 12 matches, 35 teams with a match/win percentage of 50% or less have made the finals. Five made the Grand Final - Geelong 1994, Adelaide 1998, Carlton 1999, Melbourne 2000, Collingwood 2003.

After 14 matches 34 teams with a match/win percentage of 50% or less have still made the final eight. However of that number only 10 of the 34 had a m/w% below 50/%.

Brisbane in 1995 was on 4 wins and 11 losses after 15 matches. They went on to play the eventual Premiers Carlton in an Elimination Final, losing by 13 points.

 

[Eagle87]

Please provide evidence of this, otherwise do not say something you have no idea about.

His press conference post game v the Eagles.

"4 games in 18 days" blah blah ...

"it only costs you 2 or 3 goals" (when questioned about umpires...

"His body isn't right with the workload he's had to carry" ...

So basically he rolled out all 3 post game. I'm unsurprised by your denial. You support a soft side with a non-accountable coach

 

[The_Reaper]

I am sorry but it wasn't a statement to make you happy, ... only a one eyed moron would take it as such.

And BTW thanks for showing me and everyone else who has taken the time to read and post on your "thread", that you are indeed a troll, writing an OP inspired by your hatred of Carlton, rather than seeking out any kind of logical answers or reasons as to whether Carlton can make the 8 or not.

Next time you feel the urge to troll Carlton under the guise of asking a legitimate football question, please state your true position in your OP, so others like me, won't waste their time reading your biased agenda driven drivel.

Fortunately, I have more respect for your footy team than I have for you as supporter.

My thread?

You might want to reread things.

 

[DrEvil]

It is Carlton's culture of buying success that has led to their downfall. Look how hard the Chris Judd trade has come back to bite them on the ass. At the time Carlton had already assembled a young and formidable midfield with their number 1 picks Murphy and Gibbs, and they might have picked up Cotchin as well had they not gone for Judd. Instead of developing their own talents Carlton opted for mercenary, as they have traditionally done. However the age of under table brown paper bags were over and Carlton is suffering from it. Gibbs is now playing as a tagger and their forward line had to rely on the likes of Hampson. Just think how potent Carlton would be if they had a Kennedy and a Cotchin, with all their small quick forwards? How much would they give to take that trade back?

 

[QS]

Going through the whole thread you have replied to people who have only said positive things about Carlton with a negative. It seems that you have already made you mind up that our season is over. You are a Carlton hater, troll obvious troll...

I think you've spent far too long on the main board trolling yourself. The lines between trolling and legitimate discussion have become blurred for you.
I suggest you take some time away from this thread whilst the grown-ups talk, if you can't add anything of substance to the thread whilst not "playing the man" (is that even a rule anymore?), don't post.

 

[Clay Davis]

Then Clay, you don't watch us often enough. There are quite a few starkly noticeable differences.

Maybe you never played enough football, workrate is the key. Running hard enough to get into position, hard enough to provide multiple leads or a marking option in space, hard enough to get to additional contests, hard enough to provide follow up efforts or support for a team mate. It is not fans but players and coaches who emphasise workrate over and over.

I think you are wrong mate, you have only identified a small part of the problem. Change in focus with their kick ins and greater defensive pressure when not in possession yesterday is what swung the game. Once they started to get more of the ball then players started to work into space more often to provide running or marking options. A little gameplan adjustment but mostly work rate and attitude.

Pretty bizarre post this. I watch your side often enough. I think you're trying to see something that isn't there.

At the highest level, I don't think there are large variations in work rate for all but a few clubs at the bottom. Carlton run as hard as any other team in most games. The way they structure up around the ground is with a less defensive bent than most other clubs. The workrate accusation is weak, IMO, smacks of a vainglorious supporter. They out worked Geelong last week (more contested possession, more clearances, more inside 50s) but couldn't put pressure on the scoreboard because their forward line relies too much on space to create scores. This week they came up against a side much stronger defensively than they are offensively, and had to change the way they played to stop losing the contested battle. Saying they don't work hard enough is garbage.

 

[vonn]

Carlton always had extra pressure on them in a development sense with all the five-year plan but IMO they're no better than a team that has shown glimpses of what they can be and so were always over-rated by the media and those who believed the hype.

Even though Murphy is a huge, huge loss, and they have injuries, it's not as though any team goes through the year without losing a key player. The main difference is that premiership contenders cover because they have depth. They're just not there yet.

 

[Monkey King]

Not over at all; the coming weeks will determine that. As has been pointed out by others, Carlton have had up to 8 of their top 13 players out at times this year. I get that some say they should be able to cover it, but those detractors usually have to ignore their own criticisms of Carlton's lack of KP depth to pass it off. In reality, the Blues just came off a game they could have easily won against one of the top sides, in their "fortress" with some ultra dodgy umpiring, off 4 games in 18 days. I tell you what, if they manage to make the finals, which is still on the cards, and have all their players firing at some reasonable level of fitness, there's gonna be some nervous teams above us.