How many picks will your club have

[loki04]

Particularly given its the first "uncompromised draft" in several years. I think the expansion teams have changed everything. They have monopolized the best talent to such an extent, that established clubs are seeing picks from 40-50 onwards as useless. They are choosing to back in developing and improving their existing talent, than grab a fresh late draftee and start the process over. GC, and GWS in particular, have set a new benchmark for talent. The established clubs can't match them for future talent, so will plump for cohesion and stability in list management, and hope to wound the expansion teams with raids. There are exceptions to this strategy, but this will be the general rule over the next while in list management terms IMO.

Ps. Really looking fwd to your mock. Always a great read and very informed.

GWS/GC compo picks, Mini picks and FA picks have compromised it, so no it's not a regular draft.

 

[bruzaar62]

We have to delist at least one of Strijk/Dalziell/Wilson. We may choose to delist 2 and use pick 62 as well as 46 and 61.

If Crows lose picks everyone moves up

Dalziel would be odds on,followed by Strijk and Wilson ..who showed a bit as a Key Defender before braking his leg,could be handy backup if M.Brown decides to leave at years end

 

[zb14]

GWS/GC compo picks, Mini picks and FA picks have compromised it, so no it's not a regular draft.

Hence the inverted commas in my post

It is the least compromised draft we've had since the introduction of GC/GWS though. We won't ever have an uncompromised draft if the AFL continues with nonsensical compensation for Free Agents. It's completely contradictory to the notion of "Free Agent", but that's another debate, for another thread.

 

[Suma Magic]

Dalziel would be odds on,followed by Strijk and Wilson ..who showed a bit as a Key Defender before braking his leg,could be handy backup if M.Brown decides to leave at years end

I think Dalziell and Strijk both have no chance of being in our best 22 long-term, and we've got nothing to lose by cutting them both. Even if pick 62 is a speculative pick, it's still better than keeping both of them on the list IMO.

Wilson is more of a back pocket at 186cm and 89kg. He seems a big bigger though, wouldn't be surprised if he was 188cm. I think we should give him one more year.

 

[coryne]

The reduction in rookie list sizes was always going to impact this year's Rookie Draft too. I just don't understand the AFL's rationale on this. Silly decision.

The changes to the Rookie draft is the main reason why I think clubs will be limited in the number of players they take in this years draft. Most clubs have a couple of Rookies they have put a couple of years into over the expansion period, who they must either place onto their senior list or lose. Carlton for example could have happily elevated all of Casboult (needed an elevation or would have been lost), Tuohy and Curnow (both played a large proportion of the season as nominated rookies) and Bell (probably more talented than Curnow, but Curnow has "earnt" his elevation after being on the rookie list for a couple of years). Luckily we were able to retain Bell on the rookie list, but the other 3 will be elevated.


More quality is being developed through the rookie draft, and rookie draft elevations now count for your "3 list changes" so are becoming more of a mainstream recruiting avenue than it used to be, thus less players are taken through the ND/PSD.


That and the fact teams will need to push through more ready-made players to have a tilt at a flag before the two juggernauts are unleashed. God help any club pushing for a flag after that happens ........

 

[ImperialPurple]

Fremantle:
My guess is we'll only use picks 17, 37 and 40, upgrade C. Pearce and 2 picks in the rookie draft. As it stands we will have to delist 3 more players from the senior list in order to do this.

It's been announced that Spurr is to be upgraded and has been given a 2 year contract. As far as I know there's been no announcement on Clancee Pearce, despite having played every game in 2012, managing a top 10 B&F finish and having just spent his 4th year as a rookie. Odd.

 

[NUFC Tiger]

Carlton
Picks 11, 36, 56 + Elevations of Zach Tuohy, Levi Casboult and Ed Curnow

1 Rookie draft pick

Tom Bell? Surely worth a elevation to the senior list?

 

[Stamos]

Tom Bell? Surely worth a elevation to the senior list?

Signed a 2 year deal with an option 3rd, but the first year will stay as a nominated rookie.

 

[NUFC Tiger]

Signed a 2 year deal with an option 3rd, but the first year will stay as a nominated rookie.

Oh ok, cheers mate. Definitely one I will keep my eye on. Could be something.

 

[Snoop Dog]

So how many picks will north and WCE have post their delistings.

Pies will have 4 and then upgrade Williams and then either upgrae Mooney or take a DFA / PSD selection i think.

 

[Cat Addict]

The reduction in rookie list sizes was always going to impact this year's Rookie Draft too. I just don't understand the AFL's rationale on this. Silly decision.

Yeah I mean going straight to 4 (cat A) and 4 (cat B) rookies seems extream, why not start at 6 (cat A) 2 (cat B) them move this up to 4 and 4 next year. Would help team manage there rookie list down better. Some teams might not even have any Cat B rookies? There is going to be alot of them taken in this years rookie draft thats for sure.

 

[Miguel Sanchez]

So how many picks will north and WCE have post their delistings.

Pies will have 4 and then upgrade Williams and then either upgrae Mooney or take a DFA / PSD selection i think.

West Coast will have three live picks (46, 61 and 62) and upgrade Dick.

 

[Snoop Dog]

will hawkers have an extra one as well now

 

[Slattery_20]

IMHO:
4 -
Daniher, 35, 52, 55

If we cut another guy, we'll have either a PSD pick or take a delisted player as a free agent.

Probably only one rookie, too (unsure who's getting cut, all the guys who are left have a reasonable claim to stay on)

 

[Miguel Sanchez]

Here's my guesstimates

Adelaide
39 senior players in 2012
4 players out (Doughty, Knights, Symes, Tambling? - Tippett to remain on list until post ND)
3 players in (Crouch, Graham, Callinan)
2 live picks (20 and 53 pending investigation)

Brisbane
40 senior players in 2012
7 players out (Buchanan, Drummond, Hudson, Sheldon, Retzlaff, Hawksley, Stiller)
4 players in (Moloney, Martin, McKeever, Crisp)
3 live picks (8, 24 and 33)

Carlton
38 senior players in 2012
5 players out (Russell, Bower, Kerr, Collins, Thornton)
3 players in (Tuohy, Casboult, Curnow)
4 live picks (11, 36, 56, 71/PSD/delisted player)

Collingwood
40 senior players in 2012
9 players out (Tarrant, Dawes, Wellingham, T.Young, Wood, Rounds, Buckley, Ugle, Cegler)
4 players in (Lynch, C.Young, Russell, Williams)
5 live picks (18, 19, 21, 39, 82/PSD/delisted player)

Essendon
40 senior players in 2012
6 players out (McVeigh, Monfries, Slattery, Lonergan, Reimers, Ross)
3 players in (Goddard, Daniher, Baguley)
3 live picks (35, 52, 55)

Fremantle
40 senior players in 2012
6 players out (Grover, Broughton, Van Berlo, 3 to come)
3 players in (D.Pearce, C.Pearce, Spurr)
3 live picks (17, 37, 40)

Geelong
40 senior players in 2012
6 players out (Scarlett, Wojcinski, Hogan, Byrnes, Gillies, Stephenson)
4 players in (Caddy, Rivers, McIntosh, Stringer)
2 live picks (16 and 79)

Hawthorn
40 senior players in 2012
7 players out (Bateman, Bruce, Young, Gilham, Murphy, Boumann, Osborne)
4 players in (Lake, Spangher, Anderson, Simpkin)
4 live picks (29, 68, 72/PSD)

Melbourne
39 senior players in 2012
11 players out (Green, Moloney, Rivers, Gysberts, Martin, Morton, Jurrah, Bate, Bennell, Petterd, Cook)
8 players in (Viney, Dawes, Byrnes, Rodan, Barry, Pedersen, Evans, Nicholson)
4 live picks (4, 49, 53, 70/PSD)

North Melbourne
39 senior players in 2012
7 players out (Pedersen, Edwards, Warren, McKinley, Speight, Garlett, Campbell)
4 players in (Gysberts, Gibson, Daw, Mullett)
4 live picks (15, 38, 42, 48)

Port Adelaide
39 senior players in 2012
9 players out (McCarthy, Chaplin, Pearce, Rodan, Banner, Surjan, Salopek, Phillips, Jacobs?)
7 players in (Monfries, Hombsch, Neade, Stevenson, Heath, Pfeiffer, Jonas)
3 live picks (7, 30, 31)

Richmond
38 senior players in 2012
7 players out (Moore, Graham, Webberley, Connors, MacDonald, Browne, Post)
3 players in (Knights, Chaplin, Edwards)
6 live picks (9, 32, 34, 43, 92, PSD/delisted player)

St Kilda
38 senior players in 2012
7 players out (Goddard, Cripps, Peake, Polo, Crocker, Gram, Clarke)
4 players in (Lee, Hickey, Dennis-Lane, Dunell)
5 live picks (25, 26, 41, 44, 77/PSD/delisted player)

 

[Miguel Sanchez]

Sydney
38 senior players in 2012
6 players out (Spangher, Dennis-Lane, Seaby, Moore, Meredith, Gordon)
0 players in
8 live picks (23, 45, 47, 66, 67, 103 and onwards/PSD/delisted players)

West Coast
40 senior players in 2012
7 players out (Swift, Lynch, Stevenson, Stevens, Neates, Strijk, Weedon)
4 players in (Wellingham, Morton, Cripps, Dick)
3 live picks (46, 61, 62)

Western Bulldogs
40 senior players in 2012
10 players out (Gilbee, Hargrave, Djerrkura, Lake, Mulligan, Moles, Hooper, Hill, Panos, Sherman)
5 players in (Stevens, Young, Hunter, Campbell, Johanissen)
5 live picks (5, 6, 22, 51, 89/PSD/delisted player)

 

[Slattery_20]

A hell of a lot of those later picks are going to go up the order then, with some clubs finished by the 30s or 40s.

 

[Snoop Dog]

good work Five Strings.

yeah I am thinking only 50-60 or so players are going to get taken plus some Rookie elevations. Clubs voting this draft with their feet.

 

[dlanod]

Using Five Strings' work and making an assumption of three minimum for Fremantle, here's the draft order (Note: those picks known to be used on rookie upgrades have been omitted I believe):

ROUND ONE
1 Greater Western Sydney
2 Greater Western Sydney
3 Greater Western Sydney
4 Melbourne (GWS compensation - Tom Scully)
5 Western Bulldogs
6 Western Bulldogs (GWS compensation - Callan Ward)
7 Port Adelaide
8 Brisbane Lions
9 Richmond
10 Essendon (father-son selection committed to Joe Daniher)
11 Carlton
12 Greater Western Sydney
13 Gold Coast (Saints' FA compensation - Brendon Goddard, on-traded to Gold Coast)
14 Greater Western Sydney
15 North Melbourne
16 Geelong
17 Fremantle
18 Collingwood
19 Collingwood
20 Adelaide
21 Collingwood (GWS compensation - originally via Adelaide - Phil Davis)
22 Western Bulldogs
23 Sydney Swans

END OF ROUND ONE
24 Brisbane Lions (GC compensation - Michael Rischitelli)

ROUND TWO
25 St Kilda
26 St Kilda
27 Melbourne (father-son selection committed to Jack Viney)
28 Greater Western Sydney
29 Hawthorn
30 Port Adelaide (FA compensation - Danyle Pearce)
31 Port Adelaide (FA compensation - Troy Chaplin)
32 Richmond (GC compensation - originally via Port Adelaide - Nathan Krakouer)
33 Brisbane Lions
34 Richmond
35 Essendon
36 Carlton
37 Fremantle
38 North Melbourne
39 Collingwood
40 Fremantle
41 St Kilda
42 North Melbourne
43 Richmond
44 St Kilda
45 Sydney Swans

ROUND THREE
46 West Coast
47 Sydney Swans
48 North Melbourne
49 Melbourne (FA compensation - net result for Brent Moloney and Jared Rivers)
50 Western Bulldogs (father-son selection committed to Lachie Hunter)
51 Western Bulldogs (GWS compensation - Sam Reid)
52 Essendon
53 Melbourne
54 Adelaide
55 Essendon
56 Carlton
57 Geelong
58 West Coast
59 West Coast (FA compensation - Quinten Lynch)
60 Sydney Swans (Via Hawthorn - FA compensation - Clinton Young)
61 Sydney Swans

ROUND FOUR
62 Hawthorn
63 Melbourne
64 Carlton
65 Hawthorn
66 Collingwood
67 Port Adelaide

ROUND FIVE
68 Western Bulldogs
69 Richmond
70 Sydney Swans

ROUND SIX
71 Sydney Swans

ROUND SEVEN
72 Sydney Swans

 

[dlanod]

Notes:

• Fremantle definitely has two slots (Van Berlo, Grover and Broughton gone and Pearce added), but any delistings before today's deadline haven't been confirmed. They still need to delist at least one more to satisfy AFL rules.
• Brisbane has at least one more slot on their list after Hudson's retirement, but that may be used on a rookie upgrade.
• St Kilda has four picks, all in the second round somehow.
• Obviously rookie upgrades are going to reduce this further, as are delisted free agents.

 

[Slattery_20]

dlanod, are you sure GC will have that many picks? Remember they've got O'Meara coming in, and the reducing list.

 

[dlanod]

dlanod, are you sure GC will have that many picks? Remember they've got O'Meara coming in, and the reducing list.

FiveStrings didn't have them in his list so I was too lazy to figure it out for myself. If you can give me a number for their live picks, I'll update accordingly.

 

[Miguel Sanchez]

FiveStrings didn't have them in his list so I was too lazy to figure it out for myself. If you can give me a number for their live picks, I'll update accordingly.

Yeah struggled to work out the Gold Coast and GWS rules, and Freo's moves

Gold Coast
46 senior players in 2012 (to be reduced to 42)
10 players out (Fraser, Caddy, Hickey, Krakouer, Iles, Flanagan, Moss, Jolly, Magin, Toy)
4 players in (O'Meara, Murphy, Horsley, Cameron)
2 live picks (13 and 57)

 

[dlanod]

Yeah struggled to work out the Gold Coast and GWS rules, and Freo's moves

Gold Coast
46 senior players in 2012 (to be reduced to 42)
9 players out (Fraser, Caddy, Hickey, Krakouer, Iles, Flanagan, Moss, Jolly, Magin)
4 players in (O'Meara, Murphy, Horsley, Cameron)
1 live pick? Not sure about that, although Horsley and Cameron would make up the minimum three draft picks.

I suppose Toy will probably come off the list as well.

Actually I think that sounds right. I've heard one live pick elsewhere before. I'll update it accordingly.

Greater Western Sydney I can answer:

Greater Western Sydney
44 senior players in 2012 (to a maximum of 50)
5 players out (Segrave, Clifton, Power, McDonald, Hombsch)
3 players in (Gilham, Frost, Philips)
Up to 8 live picks, but the most likely scenario is 6 plus two delisted free agents/PSD/spare.

Fremantle are a weird one. It appears they only have two slots free at the moment. I've updated assuming they'll take just the three minimum, though I suspect one or more will be on upgraded rookies.

 

[borderbarry]

Saints have announced that they will use Picks 24, 25, 41, 44, and 77, and they have promoted Dunell to the Senior List.