Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2012 Mock Draft

[Hellgood]

You would be loving seeing all the Grundy tapdowns to Kennedy at ruck contests in their highlights!

 

[Wargreymon90]

Pendlebury and swan won't get any touches. All the taps will go to Kennedy

 

[Swallow9]

Hey Knight what are you thoughts on

Taylor Garner
Mason Wood
Mitchell Wilkins

 

[Balony_pony16]

Hey knight...are you going to do a team by team review/ratings of the draft? I would like to know your thoughts on the Lions draft

 

[Megaman123]

Km, Jackson Thurlow a justified pick 16 for the cats in your opinion. Especially with Grundy, Simpson and Kennedy still available? Wells does t get it wrong to often, he seemed the biggest bolted of the first round. He wasn't in you power rankings either?

 

[smashbox gill]

Knightmare how do you rate Carltons draft with picking up Menzel, Temay and Graham?

 

[Tazwegian]

Km, Jackson Thurlow a justified pick 16 for the cats in your opinion. Especially with Grundy, Simpson and Kennedy still available? Wells does t get it wrong to often, he seemed the biggest bolted of the first round. He wasn't in you power rankings either?

He should have listened to me, I tried to warn all these guys ages ago Maybe they'll listen next year.

 

[Chris25]

Get yourself a half decent U18s coach, and maybe then I'll come around.

 

[pavchamp]

Can't believe Banfield wasn't drafted, is he a chance for pre-season or rookie draft?

 

[TheTigerEffect]

Hey Knightmare, what's your view on the Tigers drafting? Don't know much on McIntosh, McBean and McDonough apart from the fact they are apparently really good kicks. Also, do you think we will be active players in the PSD? Hearing something about Salopek coming to us. Would prefer Toy but Salopek is pretty good as well (as long as he stays on the park).

 

[Knightmare]

You would be loving seeing all the Grundy tapdowns to Kennedy at ruck contests in their highlights!

They are close mates. Both stoked to get the opportunity to play together at the next level.

Kennedy I like more as a damaging forward flanker but the club consider him more of a midfielder than I do - generously comparing him to Shane Crawford so it will be interesting to see how that partnership works out.

As a Pies fan I certainly like both selections and see big value at both selections with both really dominant even back as 17 year olds.

Hey Knight what are you thoughts on

Taylor Garner
Mason Wood
Mitchell Wilkins

Solid draft for North Melbourne.

Garner can become a very good player if his shoulders hold up which is the query there but as a forward who can later develop into a midfielder there is something to work with.

Wood could prove to be another good get. Might find a role on a forward flank or possibly even a wing. Really elite endurance runner and has really come on this year and with some luck continues his development next season.

Wilkins could prove to be a good get as a defender. Haven't seen too much of him since he missed the whole second half of the season but has some talent - uses it well, can play on various sizes and good overhead for his size so there might be something also.

Hey knight...are you going to do a team by team review/ratings of the draft? I would like to know your thoughts on the Lions draft

That's the plan. I'm still tossing up whether I should do it after the rookie draft or do it this weekend or next week.

To be honest I didn't like the Brisbane draft at all. Mayes so early while he was always linked to Brisbane heavily was absolutely not the guy I would have taken, Brisbane would have loved Wines if available but that was never to be with Port Adelaide smartly taking him at 7.

Paparone at 23 while a key forward is a need is another selection I didn't like so much either. Has elite endurance but I'm just not sure I see him as anything above average in any position whether it be CHF/wing/HF. All of Spencer White, James Stewart, Tim O'Brien, Tom Clurey, Mason Shaw and Kamdyn McIntosh would have been higher on my list as talls at that stage.

Close at 32 is interesting. Again not the guy I would have taken but has some athleticism and again elite endurance which I suggest is something that really appeals to Brisbane with the reduced interchanges and potential future interchange caps which might be something to watch for with Close probably the more interesting of the bunch though not sure whether he is quite that high end key forward Brisbane need.

Km, Jackson Thurlow a justified pick 16 for the cats in your opinion. Especially with Grundy, Simpson and Kennedy still available? Wells does t get it wrong to often, he seemed the biggest bolted of the first round. He wasn't in you power rankings either?

Not a selection I'd be making but I suggest Geelong have done their scouting and seen more of him than I have so this is one to really evaluate in hindsight.

Thurlow is someone I rated in my own rankings in the 60-70 type range if I was to expand it because I just can't say with any certainty that he will be anything. I'm weary having seen Peter Yagmoor as a similar (but smaller) high production back flanker really get plenty of the ball also in the u18s due to that sheer quantity of ball going into the back half and using it well but then this year really struggle with that pace of the game at a higher level and I can't help suspect similar will happen with Thurlow and because of that rating him significantly lower than his strong performances at the u18 champs suggest he probably should.

I'm a big fan of what Wells does on draft day typically and if he has enough confidence to take Thurlow over Grundy, Simpson, Kennedy, Hrovat and others then he must be confident and have a very good reason to be doing so.

Thurlow is certainly not a selection I would have even entertained at that stage though, especially with the other talent available. Even with the highest imaginable rating of Thurlow, Grundy would still have been my selection, regardless of perceived ruck depth - he is the best ruckman since Naitanui to feature in the draft and for those who have seen him play live it's really mindboggling that he slid so far, even with clubs now better understanding the success they can have with rookie rucks, not wanting to develop ruckmen themselves and with the knowledge they can pretty easily trade for opposition ruckman. Grundy is ready to play so I strongly believe it an oversight by all those who passed him over and that he does not fit that category of that young ruckman who needs time, because he can play next year and hold his own at AFL level without much issue if the opportunity arises.

Knightmare how do you rate Carltons draft with picking up Menzel, Temay and Graham?

Menzel is a heck of a talent and if his knees can hold up Carlton have really found someone - in Carlton's situation not a bad risk to take but I'm expecting he will have more major knee injuries so long term I'm not guaranteeing anything. Very capable of playing next year and can have a big impact both up forward and through the midfield, very much one to be excited about.

Temay has a solid game. Best known for his shutdown role on Whitfield which gets spoken about a touch too much. Has mostly played down back but can play some midfield. Chance to find a role but not sure who he gets past.

Graham I've been up and down on. I see him more as a very good state league player. Good user of the footy and has a really complete game with a good tackling mark, marking ability, an good endurance for someone so late draft and has the verstaility to play wherever you need him to play. Just not sure if he finds a position, as a midfielder there are much stronger bodied midfielders who will always play first, not quick enough to play outside. If he can find a position then could go ok.

If Menzel works out then that on it's own can make it a really excellent draft but I would rate Carlton somewhere around a C+ grade as I'm not confidence Menzel's knee holds up long term then Temay and Graham are both more for mine outside chances who can make the grade, but slightly against the odds with other players on the list probably likely to remain ahead of them.

Can't believe Banfield wasn't drafted, is he a chance for pre-season or rookie draft?

I'd suggest he would be one someones short list. Won't be as many rookie selections this year as usual but Banfield is still one I'd say would be strongly in the mix.

 

[GrandBlue]

Are your 2013 Power Rankings going to be updated any time soon? Or are they still up to date?

 

[Knightmare]

Hey Knightmare, what's your view on the Tigers drafting? Don't know much on McIntosh, McBean and McDonough apart from the fact they are apparently really good kicks. Also, do you think we will be active players in the PSD? Hearing something about Salopek coming to us. Would prefer Toy but Salopek is pretty good as well (as long as he stays on the park).

Solid draft for Richmond.

McIntosh as a tall defender is one with the ability to find a role as he can play tall/small without any issues. Really disciplined type and will do his job every week and one I expect Richmond to be very happy with.

McBean at 204cm is probably more a super tall KPP who can play forward or back well. Despite his height I don't see him making it through the ruck as he is too light bodied and not athletic enough to be anything more than depth through there so I hope Richmond view him as a KPP. Plays both ends well with previous success as a key forward with this year more key defence.

McDonough is a selection I quite like. Really strong bodied. Will need to lean down and build his endurance but very strong 1v1 player, overhead as strong as you'll find at his height and just knows where the goals are and finds a way to hit the scoreboard. Slightly unconventional as a forward being that big marking, shorter type but I think there is something and I think if things go right he could also rotate into the midfield for some minor minutes but a fit I'm really liking.

With Richmond I expect it to be a recycled type player with Richmond's recent tendency to go for those types.
Perhaps Josh Toy but he could go rookie draft. Salopek also could be a chance and if he gets his body right could be interesting on a stronger team. As a Josh Toy fan I hope he receives another opportunity - I'm just not believing the can't get his heart over 100bpm business and is too talented not to take, particularly when he won't cost you a thing.

 

[Knightmare]

Are your 2013 Power Rankings going to be updated any time soon? Or are they still up to date?

2013 power rankings up to date and reasonably satisfied with that for a starting point going into next season.

I'm sure if I'm back again next year things will look very different this time next year with some improving, others going backward but this is a starting point and a group of players to look out for, for next year.

 

[Chris25]

Just on the 2013 rankings, Luke Reynolds is a medium forward/midfielder not a ruckman/KPP and Darcy Hourigan is a forward not a defender. Luke Dunstan is also a midfielder (a very good one) and not a forward.

I can see there being a lot of South Australians taken in the first round again next year. Should be good.

 

[doggies ftw]

Really keen on how you think the doggies did!

 

[Knightmare]

Really keen on how you think the doggies did!

Very good draft! One of the real winners for mine. Did a great job capitalising on what GWS let slide with Stringer and Macrae both excellent early. Both look really exceptional and I think will be two of the really elite players to come from this draft.

Hrovat I'm a big wrap for and would have said anywhere after pick 10 is a good get. Not sure he is a fit in that increasingly deep WBD midfield, not sure who he gets past but like his game and can certainly step in and play.

Hunter as F/S good value and in my mind a 2nd rounder.

 

[Sam The Doc]

As those high level immediate types I'd expect: Oliver Wines, Lachie Whitfield, Jimmy Toumpas, Brodie Grundy, Jackson Macrae to be regulars and play at a high level.

Ben Kennedy, Dayle Garlett, Jesse Lonergan, Nick Vlastuin, Taylor Garner, Troy Menzel, Nathan Hrovat can all play roles and will get games but probably less regularly.

Much of this will come down to the team drafting them. Is there a role for them? But this is a general starting point.

Post draft, do you still think these blokes will get plenty of game time next season?

Will Ben Kennedy struggle to get a go at your mob in 2013?

Wines should fit in nicely at port -Broadbent Bock Wingard and Wines!

Any others you think might get a fair bit of game time next season? Thurlow?

 

[Knightmare]

Post draft, do you still think these blokes will get plenty of game time next season?

Will Ben Kennedy struggle to get a go at your mob in 2013?

Wines should fit in nicely at port -Broadbent Bock Wingard and Wines!

Any others you think might get a fair bit of game time next season? Thurlow?

Oliver Wines can play 22 and play a major role in that Port Adelaide midfield. They've absolutely nailed that selection and if you are thinking dreamteam/supercoach is he, is that 1st rounder to look at first with all the inside ball he can win.

Jack Viney should be a regular, high producer.

Troy Menzel will produce right away in a big way both forward and through the midfield.

Brad Crouch I'm also betting while minidraft will have a big first season.

Mature agers Dean Towers (Syd), Nicholas Kommer (ess), Dean Turlich (melb), Mark Hutchings (WCE), Matt Jones (Melb), Dylan Van Unen (Ess) all have the opportunity to play season one.

Jesse Lonergan with his strong body can also play right away and with Gold Coast needing more strong inside ball winners he will get games - but don't expect more than 10-15.

Tim Membrey and Matthew McDonough interesting if good preseason reports from their new clubs and can find roles in their respective forwardlines.

Hrovat while I'm a fan of his game I think will struggle in a deep, young WBD midfield so probably won't get more than a couple of games.

Ben Kennedy should get games but not expecting a major role in his first season. Nathan Buckley doesn't mind playing first year players and in Malthouse's last season Nathan critical of him for not playing more young players so I expect both he and Grundy to receive 5-6 games each.

The high end draft picks: Whitfield, O'Meara from the minidraft, O'Rourke, Toumpas, Macrae, Stringer, Garner and Vlastuin among others will all play season one but as those higher draft picks too costly for fantasy football with cheaper rookies to be had. Thurlow with the way Geelong play those rookies early also a chance to get some games.

 

[Snake Charmer]

Do your rookie draft

 

[GuyIncognito]

Hi Knightmare,

Thanks for the information and work you have put into your thread, it is really quite an outstanding effort especially given all the responses and analysis you provide.

I asked this of Snoop so may as well get another knowledgeable opinion. Just wondering where you would place Caddy in this years draft? Also, I am a bit surprised the Cats didn't take Grundy (along with most other clubs) and I don't know much about Thurlow, what do you think of him going to Geelong so early and of him as a player?

Thanks

 

[Knightmare]

Do your rookie draft

I probably won't do a full rookie draft but I might go club by club and list some who have been linked and name some of the best of the rest.

Pretty keen to get a review of the trade and draft period of this year as well as a review of 2010 with a fair bit of demand building for that also.

Hi Knightmare,

Thanks for the information and work you have put into your thread, it is really quite an outstanding effort especially given all the responses and analysis you provide.

I asked this of Snoop so may as well get another knowledgeable opinion. Just wondering where you would place Caddy in this years draft? Also, I am a bit surprised the Cats didn't take Grundy (along with most other clubs) and I don't know much about Thurlow, what do you think of him going to Geelong so early and of him as a player?

Thanks

Caddy is worth somewhere around pick 10. Really excellent find for Geelong and perfect fit for that midfield needing that little bit more inside help to take some pressure off Selwood. I think he'll transition into that midfield from round 1 if his preseason goes well and with Geelong's strong development program I'd back him in to play close to 20 games as a regular.

I think a lot of clubs have really missed by passing on Grundy and I think hindsight will suggest that Grundy should have been a top 10 selection so we'll have to wait and see. Thurlow I don't rate nearly as highly as Geelong do but I have a strong respect for what Wells puts together for Geelong each draft period so I suspect he knows something I don't.

 

[swansfan51]

Do you see a lot of Jared Polec in Macrae? Very similar size, tallish skinny wingman, doesn't have elite foot speed but uses tricks and agility to evade players, similar long left-foot kick.

 

[Dazb86]

His kicking looks a bit shonky at distances IMO.

Happy to have him though. Actually happy with all of them.

 

[Knightmare]

Do you see a lot of Jared Polec in Macrae? Very similar size, tallish skinny wingman, doesn't have elite foot speed but uses tricks and agility to evade players, similar long left-foot kick.

Different games. Polec the better kick with that penetration and more precision by foot.

Macrae for mine is the better player though. Just so smart whether he has the ball or is getting in position to get the next ball. Will be the higher production player and will probably develop the better inside game while he's at it.