Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2015 Draft Almanac

[eth-dog]

Right now there are several TAC players who go to VFL clubs (mostly stand alone) and play in the reserves.

 

[Procrastinator35]

I am all for mature aged players getting drafted, but I think a model of u/19s that are attached to a VFL club like the SANFL and WAFL is a better option as it means the more developed teenagers are able to test themselves against the bigger bodies in the seniors and the AFL clubs get to view them playing senior football prior to the draft.

Yep....I get your point, but I suppose it's all about exposure versus likelihood of getting drafted!

How many over-age kids from the SANFL & WAFL'S get picked up in the Draft each year?....1, possibly 2 at best?

Mature aged kids at TAC CUP level who can dominate against their younger peers & show significant improvement, are often drafted ahead of those who do well at the lower end of the second tier VFL comp.

Usually it's the boys who coaches & staff consider as already possessing some sort of AFL elite level talent, that are given a second chance at TAC CUP level....It's about displaying their skills & wares against their peers & not having them bashed from pillar to post by hardened, bigger mature bodies.

 

[ItsAllAboutMe]

Yep....I get your point, but I suppose it's all about exposure versus likelihood of getting drafted!

How many over-age kids from the SANFL & WAFL'S get picked up in the Draft each year?....1, possibly 2 at best?

Mature aged kids at TAC CUP level who can dominate against their younger peers & show significant improvement, are often drafted ahead of those who do well at the lower end of the second tier VFL comp.

Usually it's the boys who coaches & staff consider as already possessing some sort of AFL elite level talent, that are given a second chance at TAC CUP level....It's about displaying their skills & wares against their peers & not having them bashed from pillar to post by hardened, bigger mature bodies.

Fair call, I would just think someone like Kovacevic who is playing for Calder would be better off showing what he can do in the ruck against men than running around rucking against kids again. He wasnt drafted because of doubts about if he could step up to the next level so running around dominating kids again I dont see how it would help him get drafted.

 

[Procrastinator35]

Fair call, I would just think someone like Kovacevic who is playing for Calder would be better off showing what he can do in the ruck against men than running around rucking against kids again. He wasnt drafted because of doubts about if he could step up to the next level so running around dominating kids again I dont see how it would help him get drafted.

Kovacevic is probably one example of an under-age kid who already has a man's body & could easily cope with the rigors....Though he'd be the exception rather than the rule!

 

[Knightmare]

Hey Knightmare....Have noticed quite alot more Mature-agers at TAC CUP level in the squads this season....Any of em in particular catch your eye as having improved significantly enuf to warrant serious consideration for being Drafted in 2015?....Also, have any mature-aged smokey's popped up out of nowhere, who weren't on a list last season, to warrant consideration?

Have heard good raps thus far on Michael Mattingly from Northern & Callum Moore from Calder....Will either make the Metro State Squad in your opinion?

I expect clubs can have up to 7/8 overagers, though some are down the lower end of the spectrum with only 3-4.

As for who can make the metro squad of the overagers. Kade Answerth, Michael Mattingly and Rory Sheridan-Ferrie would all be in the mix. Mark Kovacevic if they want an overage ruckman is a fair chance.

I don't think Callum Moore has played a game yet, so I'm not sure of his status specifically.

No Metro overagers have really stood out and screamed definite draft prospect, but Mattingly who you mentioned would of the Metro boys based on the first three rounds be leading that group of draft possibles. Otherwise I'm still waiting for some others to blow my socks off.

What is the eligibility criteria to play TAC as a mature aged player? What is the real value in a player playing TAC rather than playing VFL/SANFL etc.

I don't know the specific criteria, but I imagine it's just be nominated by your regional tac cup side and that's fine, even if you are that year older - just with a limitation as to how many each club can have on their list and use per game.

The value of going back to the TAC rather than playing VFL/SANFL is they'll actually get a game at the TAC Cup level. If they progress to say the VFL, they'll most likely play reserves and hardly get noticed with scouts like myself paying more attention to the Tac Cup.

Some players and Tom Langdon is an example of this a few years ago as an overager, he played the first half of the season in the TAC Cup, dominated and then went to the VFL for the second half of the season and was a regular and strong performer there.

So there are different and lots of different ways they can go about it.

 

[Knightmare]

Personally for me if it's a question of TAC Cup or VFL. I tend to prefer they play in the TAC Cup. With the VFL it's just not that likely you get games. And then if you're out and out dominating in the TAC Cup, you can look better, than barely staying afloat in the VFL or more likely VFL reserves.

The advantage with the VFL if you can actually play at VFL level and stand out, that's the ultimate and shows that you are v those others in the system performing, so that's going to earn you a greater level of credit. But so few can as overagers dominate like this at VFL level which is why generally for me anyway I'd say go back to the TAC Cup and if things are going so great over the first half, do a Tom Langdon and look to the VFL later.

 

[Procrastinator35]

Some players and Tom Langdon is an example of this a few years ago as an overager, he played the first half of the season in the TAC Cup, dominated and then went to the VFL for the second half of the season and was a regular and strong performer there.

So there are different and lots of different ways they can go about it.

Pretty sure that Tyson Goldsack was another over-ager at TAC CUP level, that Collingwood has drafted only recently ( 5 seasons ago? ).

Isaac Smith presents as a real late blooming bolter who bucked the usual trend...Went to Ballarat Uni after being over-looked in his initial year playing for New South Wales along-sides Suckling...Then played for Redan in his final year at Uni, in the Ballarat league, before being called up for North Ballarat for the last 6-8 games of the season by the Legendary Fitzpatrick....Where-upon he proceeds to cut up the Box-Hill Hawk boys one day, with his electrifying pace & composure.

He is in fact, the last bloke the Hawks held onto their first round pick for, in order to secure....You have to say, He was worth it!

 

[Knightmare]

Pretty sure that Tyson Goldsack was another over-ager at TAC CUP level, that Collingwood has drafted only recently ( 5 seasons ago? ).

Isaac Smith presents as a real late blooming bolter who bucked the usual trend...Went to Ballarat Uni after being over-looked in his initial year playing for New South Wales along-sides Suckling...Then played for Redan in his final year at Uni, in the Ballarat league, before being called up for North Ballarat for the last 6-8 games of the season by the Legendary Fitzpatrick....Where-upon he proceeds to cut up the Box-Hill Hawk boys one day, with his electrifying pace & composure.

He is in fact, the last bloke the Hawks held onto their first round pick for, in order to secure....You have to say, He was worth it!

I was long red hot for Hawthorn to get Isaac Smith seeing Hawthorn as a win now situation looking for some electricity on the outside. I was so much pro Smith that I took him in the bigfooty official phantom that year for Hawthorn as the Hawthorn recruiter. His situation though was while a late bloomer, he was several years older so it's not like he would have been able to play in say the TAC Cup. But the pace, ability to play big games and step up a level so easily. The way he has developed shouldn't be surprising.

Goldsack you are right was taken as an overager - going back to Gippsland Power for a further season. Jamie Elliott is another example out of the TAC Cup. So Collingwood have taken a few going that route.
In the early 2000s clubs took many more overagers, particularly late/rookie draft. But just these past 10 years, it's gone out of fashion.

 

[Procrastinator35]

I was long red hot for Hawthorn to get Isaac Smith seeing Hawthorn as a win now situation looking for some electricity on the outside. I was so much pro Smith that I took him in the bigfooty official phantom that year for Hawthorn as the Hawthorn recruiter. His situation though was while a late bloomer, he was several years older so it's not like he would have been able to play in say the TAC Cup. But the pace, ability to play big games and step up a level so easily. The way he has developed shouldn't be surprising.

Goldsack you are right was taken as an overager - going back to Gippsland Power for a further season. Jamie Elliott is another example out of the TAC Cup. So Collingwood have taken a few going that route.
In the early 2000s clubs took many more overagers, particularly late/rookie draft. But just these past 10 years, it's gone out of fashion.

Also, Don't forget about Ceglar....Want to thank you blokes especially for that one!

The thing with Isaac Smith was that he was able to slot straight into our senior side straight away & looked at home almost immediately....That's some come-up in level & yet the kid never missed a beat!....when was the last time THAT ever happened????....From Redan to AFL Senior Footy in 6 months!

 

[Knightmare]

Also, Don't forget about Ceglar....Want to thank you blokes especially for that one!

The thing with Isaac Smith was that he was able to slot straight into our senior side straight away & looked at home almost immediately....That's some come-up in level & yet the kid never missed a beat!....when was the last time THAT ever happened????....From Redan to AFL Senior Footy in 6 months!

Collingwood have been too quick to move on a number of guys not just Ceglar. Jye Bolton, Michael Hartley, Jon Ceglar, John McCarthy along with numerous veterans who Collingwood for me should have been asked to come back and have instead taken on some really poor depth guys who just aren't anywhere close to best 22 quality.

In saying that Ceglar never projected to be a long term ruckman or anything more than depth with both Grundy and Witts superior talents.

Still Ceglar as a sort of 20th/21st player for Hawthorn, he's fine and can play his role to a standard that is adequate to win with, with those other pieces more than in place for Hawthorn to be successful.


Most guys generally with Kyle Martin who was an ex Collingwood rookie as an example going from local footy up to VFL and then finding his way into the AFL due to that strong year at VFL level.

Relatively speaking the most impressive situations are those whereby international rookies come in from having not played at AFL level and produce. Marty Clarke again a Collingwood example, but he came in half way through his first season of playing AFL, became a clear best 22 player. Mark Blicavs also is a really interesting example and while he played AFL growing up, his transition from athlete to footballer so quickly was also one that really stands out to me.

But Isaac Smith's situation and his ability to step up so easily, it just speaks as per other similar cases to his incredible talent but then also work ethic to make it happen.

 

[redandblack]

I see that the best player medal for the Academy side against Werribee went to .........

Aaron Francis.

 

[Procrastinator35]

Collingwood have been too quick to move on a number of guys not just Ceglar. Jye Bolton, Michael Hartley, Jon Ceglar, John McCarthy along with numerous veterans who Collingwood for me should have been asked to come back and have instead taken on some really poor depth guys who just aren't anywhere close to best 22 quality.

In saying that Ceglar never projected to be a long term ruckman or anything more than depth with both Grundy and Witts superior talents.

Still Ceglar as a sort of 20th/21st player for Hawthorn, he's fine and can play his role to a standard that is adequate to win with, with those other pieces more than in place for Hawthorn to be successful.


Most guys generally with Kyle Martin who was an ex Collingwood rookie as an example going from local footy up to VFL and then finding his way into the AFL due to that strong year at VFL level.

Relatively speaking the most impressive situations are those whereby international rookies come in from having not played at AFL level and produce. Marty Clarke again a Collingwood example, but he came in half way through his first season of playing AFL, became a clear best 22 player. Mark Blicavs also is a really interesting example and while he played AFL growing up, his transition from athlete to footballer so quickly was also one that really stands out to me.

But Isaac Smith's situation and his ability to step up so easily, it just speaks as per other similar cases to his incredible talent but then also work ethic to make it happen.

Ceglar's improvement over these past 12 months has been phenomenal....His mobility & agility for a bloke of 204cm is tremendous.....At the beginning of 2014 he was fighting both Lowden & Grimley for the 3rd Ruck spot....Fair to say, he has beaten them both off with a big stick & is now seriously pressing his claims to take Hale's spot before the season has run it's course....He'd be almost our first choice ruck-man right at this moment.

Other left-of-center recruits in Pike from Canada & Hanley from Ireland have also been surprisingly successful....Marty Clarke was a very good player, though Hanley's ball use is the best of all the irish recruits I've ever witnessed; going back some 30 odd years now.

Puopolo & Stratton are 2 relatively mature-aged players we have managed to pluck from the WAFL & SANFL respectively, at 21 & 23 years of age....At picks 46 & 66, they've been seriously good value & are 2 of our most underrated players AFL wide!....Both will play their 100th game this season. Stratts is seldom beaten & can play on both talls & smalls at 192cm.... Puopolo leads all of our 1%ers, with regards pressure acts!....Solid citizens the 2 of em.

 

[Knightmare]

Ceglar's improvement over these past 12 months has been phenomenal....His mobility & agility for a bloke of 204cm is tremendous.....At the beginning of 2014 he was fighting both Lowden & Grimley for the 3rd Ruck spot....Fair to say, he has beaten them both off with a big stick & is now seriously pressing his claims to take Hale's spot before the season has run it's course....He'd be almost our first choice ruck-man right at this moment.

Other left-of-center recruits in Pike from Canada & Hanley from Ireland have also been surprisingly successful....Marty Clarke was a very good player, though Hanley's ball use is the best of all the irish recruits I've ever witnessed; going back some 30 odd years now.

Puopolo & Stratton are 2 relatively mature-aged players we have managed to pluck from the WAFL & SANFL respectively, at 21 & 23 years of age....At picks 46 & 66, they've been seriously good value & are 2 of our most underrated players AFL wide!....Both will play their 100th game this season. Stratts is seldom beaten & can play on both talls & smalls at 192cm.... Puopolo leads all of our 1%ers, with regards pressure acts!....Solid citizens the 2 of em.

Hawthorn are terrific developers of talent. Probably at that specifically the best in the game.

Hanley and Pyke both have been terrific with Hanley particularly the best of the international recruits in a long time. Ball use with the internationals and particularly the Irish recruits generally isn't an issue and has with a number of them really developed to a very advanced level even by AFL standards.

Hawthorn as recruiters, I'd class them as actually fairly poor when it comes specifically to junior talent. But Hawthorn from a recruiting perspective, the clubs relative advantage is the ability to identify mature talent - be it from opposition lists or state leagues, Hawthorn see a guy who can either upgrade the team at a specific position or fill a need, and then add the clubs excellent player development and excellent coaching and that's where the magic happens.

 

[ItsAllAboutMe]

Yes take out 2004, hawks have wasted as many first rounders as any team, and threw away Josh Kennedy

 

[Procrastinator35]

Hawthorn as recruiters, I'd class them as actually fairly poor when it comes specifically to junior talent. But Hawthorn from a recruiting perspective, the clubs relative advantage is the ability to identify mature talent - be it from opposition lists or state leagues, Hawthorn see a guy who can either upgrade the team at a specific position or fill a need, and then add the clubs excellent player development and excellent coaching and that's where the magic happens.

I think that's a fair & accurate assessment & explains why it is that we've specifically avoided going into the draft with any first round picks 5 of these past 6 easons!

Apart from 2004 where we scored the ultimate triffecta in Rough, Buddy & Lewy...We've blown a few thereafter!

2005.................3.Ellis....Missed Pendlebury....6. Dowler....Missed Ryder....14....Birchall....Score....18....Bailey....(Knees)....21....Muston....(Knees)
2006....The Super-Draft: 6. Thorp....Missed Selwood....24 Renouf....Missed McKenzie....33....Morton....Missed Garland....40....Kennedy... (peanuts.)
2007....We did O.K here with 12.....Cyril....28....Whitecross....45....Dew (Premiership Hero)
2008....16....Schoenmakers.....Dear OH....34 ....Shiels....O.K

2009....First pick traded Away
2010....19....Isaac Smith (Mature Aged)
2011....First pick traded Away....33....Brad Hill....Steal & Score!
2012....First pick traded Away....28....Tim O'Brien....Wait & See
2013....First pick traded Away....24....Billy Hartung....Wait & see.
2014....First pick traded Away....31....Daniel Howe....Wait & see.

Those 2 drafts in 2005 & 2006 were shocking for us....Little wonder then why we struggled in 2009-2010 & why our recruiters have shyed away from first round picks on kids ever since.....Though, these years also encompassed the compromised drafts of the Gold Coast & G.W.S. so maybe it was just good planning?....Who knows!

 

[Knightmare]

I think that's a fair & accurate assessment & explains why it is that we've specifically avoided going into the draft with any first round picks 5 of these past 6 easons!

Apart from 2004 where we scored the ultimate triffecta in Rough, Buddy & Lewy...We've blown a few thereafter!

2005.................3.Ellis....Missed Pendlebury....6. Dowler....Missed Ryder....14....Birchall....Score....18....Bailey....(Knees)....21....Muston....(Knees)
2006....The Super-Draft: 6. Thorp....Missed Selwood....24 Renouf....Missed McKenzie....33....Morton....Missed Garland....40....Kennedy... (peanuts.)
2007....We did O.K here with 12.....Cyril....28....Whitecross....45....Dew (Premiership Hero)
2008....16....Schoenmakers.....Dear OH....34 ....Shiels....O.K

2009....First pick traded Away
2010....19....Isaac Smith (Mature Aged)
2011....First pick traded Away....33....Brad Hill....Steal & Score!
2012....First pick traded Away....28....Tim O'Brien....Wait & See
2013....First pick traded Away....24....Billy Hartung....Wait & see.
2014....First pick traded Away....31....Daniel Howe....Wait & see.

Those 2 drafts in 2005 & 2006 were shocking for us....Little wonder then why we struggled in 2009-2010 & why our recruiters have shyed away from first round picks on kids ever since.....Though, these years also encompassed the compromised drafts of the Gold Coast & G.W.S. so maybe it was just good planning?....Who knows!

As a rule one comment I have is understanding the quality of talent in drafts. Clubs severely overrated draft picks and underrated established AFL talent. I like how Hawthorn get this and consistently capitalise.

The dynamic now more than ever is win now. If you're winning. Guys are going to want to join you. Be it via free agency or trade week. That's how Hawthorn have and remain up.

Building through the draft flat out doesn't work. You need veteran leadership and excellent coaching to get anywhere. The AFL is a 22 man game and even if you have the top overall pick, as Carlton, Melbourne and Richmond have long proved with those high end draft picks. It doesn't get you anywhere. And Richmond have since become top 8 relevant not because of those they took through the draft, but rather have come good with the guys they've traded for.

I'm now also liking what Melbourne are doing going more heavily into trade week and making moves for guys who have proven they can play. Lumumba as a previous All Australian and a consistent performer for a long time. Jeff Garlett who through the first half of 2012 was on pace to be an All Australian and had a number of strong seasons before that, and it's not like he has lost any pace so his NAB Challenge and round 1 form shouldn't surprise anyone. Then Ben Newton when he actually played for Port Adelaide was incredibly productive in those limited minutes he got. And they're doing it the right way for a retired guy, a late pick and a delisted free agent. It's in my view the way all clubs should look to build, as the highest percentage way of getting better and building a relevant list.

It's nice if you can be Collingwood and Geelong - going into the draft every year and nailing those picks. But for me that's no more important than being able to assess and pick out good opposition talent. And that for me for Collingwood particularly has been a pet failing of mine with Collingwood consistently unable to find guys from opposition lists, just picking up poor speculative depth guys who aren't those clear best 22 players the majority of those who go to Hawthorn/Sydney/Richmond and now Melbourne continue to introduce. Gold Coast and GWS in recent years I also give credit for learning this and finally learning that building through the draft just doesn't get the job done.

 

[Procrastinator35]

As a rule one comment I have is understanding the quality of talent in drafts. Clubs severely overrated draft picks and underrated established AFL talent. I like how Hawthorn get this and consistently capitalise.

The dynamic now more than ever is win now. If you're winning. Guys are going to want to join you. Be it via free agency or trade week. That's how Hawthorn have and remain up.

Building through the draft flat out doesn't work. You need veteran leadership and excellent coaching to get anywhere. The AFL is a 22 man game and even if you have the top overall pick, as Carlton, Melbourne and Richmond have long proved with those high end draft picks. It doesn't get you anywhere. And Richmond have since become top 8 relevant not because of those they took through the draft, but rather have come good with the guys they've traded for.

I'm now also liking what Melbourne are doing going more heavily into trade week and making moves for guys who have proven they can play. Lumumba as a previous All Australian and a consistent performer for a long time. Jeff Garlett who through the first half of 2012 was on pace to be an All Australian and had a number of strong seasons before that, and it's not like he has lost any pace so his NAB Challenge and round 1 form shouldn't surprise anyone. Then Ben Newton when he actually played for Port Adelaide was incredibly productive in those limited minutes he got. And they're doing it the right way for a retired guy, a late pick and a delisted free agent. It's in my view the way all clubs should look to build, as the highest percentage way of getting better and building a relevant list.

It's nice if you can be Collingwood and Geelong - going into the draft every year and nailing those picks. But for me that's no more important than being able to assess and pick out good opposition talent. And that for me for Collingwood particularly has been a pet failing of mine with Collingwood consistently unable to find guys from opposition lists, just picking up poor speculative depth guys who aren't those clear best 22 players the majority of those who go to Hawthorn/Sydney/Richmond and now Melbourne continue to introduce. Gold Coast and GWS in recent years I also give credit for learning this and finally learning that building through the draft just doesn't get the job done.

All excellent points.

Take G.W.S & Gold Coast for an example.....For the very reasons you have just adumbrated. I actually rate the G.W.S list as better than the Gold Coasts.

They have better key position players, more mature aged recruits & an excellent list of young gun mids....Gold Coast have almost no key position forwards other than Lynch....They have 8 gun kids who are almost all mids or outside flankers, with only ablett, Malceski, Harbrow & Rischitelli as experienced mature-bodied, hardened AFL heads.

G.W.S are miles in front of Gold Coast's list IMO for this very reason...They have Mumford, Griffen, Patfull, Shaw, Davis, Ward, Palmer & Scully. to teach & shore up the kids coming through....In 3 years time Ablett, Malceski & Rischitelli will be gone!...Zero forward planning & just crazy stuff.

Both of these clubs require a serious injection of hardened & mature AFL bodies over the next 3 seasons!

 

[Knightmare]

All excellent points.

Take G.W.S & Gold Coast for an example.....For the very reasons you have just adumbrated. I actually rate the G.W.S list as better than the Gold Coasts.

They have better key position players, more mature aged recruits & an excellent list of young gun mids....Gold Coast have almost no key position forwards other than Lynch....They have 8 gun kids who are almost all mids or outside flankers, with only ablett, Malceski, Harbrow & Rischitelli as experienced mature-bodied, hardened AFL heads.

G.W.S are miles in front of Gold Coast's list IMO for this very reason...They have Mumford, Griffen, Patfull, Shaw, Davis, Ward, Palmer & Scully. to teach & shore up the kids coming through....In 3 years time Ablett, Malceski & Rischitelli will be gone!...Zero forward planning & just crazy stuff.

Both of these clubs require a serious injection of hardened & mature AFL bodies over the next 3 seasons!

Gold Coast are better today but you are right that GWS are looking the better list with their combination of established players they have managed to add over the years. Gold Coast still took a step in the right direction by adding Malceski and Hallahan, but they'll still need to continue adding to that over coming years with Gary Ablett still carrying the burden and no clear flag on the horizon long or short term.

In both situations, even with all that young talent, if they add no further established list talent I don't think either and certainly not Gold Coast, and possibly not GWS, I can't see them winning a flag. It's really going to take those continued ongoing established players to continue coming in before things happen for them.

On Gold Coast's forwards. I'm ok with those pieces. Lynch as you mentioned is really a player and for me he can be a top five key forward in the game. Peter Wright if he plays forward can be that second option. Charlie Dixon as a deep option can really provide a target. Sam Day I look at more as depth, but as depth he's fine. That's a nice group, not GWS or Sydney nice, but I'd take that as a core if I'm looking from say 2017 to contend for a flag and Gold Coast should be aiming.

 

[Gmod23]

Gold Coast are better today but you are right that GWS are looking the better list with their combination of established players they have managed to add over the years. Gold Coast still took a step in the right direction by adding Malceski and Hallahan, but they'll still need to continue adding to that over coming years with Gary Ablett still carrying the burden and no clear flag on the horizon long or short term.

In both situations, even with all that young talent, if they add no further established list talent I don't think either and certainly not Gold Coast, and possibly not GWS, I can't see them winning a flag. It's really going to take those continued ongoing established players to continue coming in before things happen for them.

On Gold Coast's forwards. I'm ok with those pieces. Lynch as you mentioned is really a player and for me he can be a top five key forward in the game. Peter Wright if he plays forward can be that second option. Charlie Dixon as a deep option can really provide a target. Sam Day I look at more as depth, but as depth he's fine. That's a nice group, not GWS or Sydney nice, but I'd take that as a core if I'm looking from say 2017 to contend for a flag and Gold Coast should be aiming.

How do you rate what the Dogs have put together? Used draft almost exclusively with fringe players traded in (Darley, Stevens, Biggs, Hamling), plus Crameri and Boyd (who is really a draft pick).
Is a midfield of The Bont, Wallis, Libba & Macrae as good or better than Green, Shiel, Treloar & WHE.

 

[ItsAllAboutMe]

How do you rate what the Dogs have put together? Used draft almost exclusively with fringe players traded in (Darley, Stevens, Biggs, Hamling), plus Crameri and Boyd (who is really a draft pick).
Is a midfield of The Bont, Wallis, Libba & Macrae as good or better than Green, Shiel, Treloar & WHE.

Got lucky with father sons, similar to Geelongs premiership team.

 

[ItsAllAboutMe]

KM I am assuming the Blues finish bottom 4, it is obvious we need at least 1 key forward. Is there a clear selection with a top 5 pick? I am also hoping we might have another pick in top 6 by letting Kruezar go via free agency and getting pick 6 as compo, is there a standout KPD who could eventually replace Jamo.

 

[Knightmare]

How do you rate what the Dogs have put together? Used draft almost exclusively with fringe players traded in (Darley, Stevens, Biggs, Hamling), plus Crameri and Boyd (who is really a draft pick).
Is a midfield of The Bont, Wallis, Libba & Macrae as good or better than Green, Shiel, Treloar & WHE.

I'm loving what Luke Beveridge is doing as head coach and his influence is obvious already. The play of the Dogs just feels so much more solid particularly with what he has done with the backline and how well drilled he has them as a collective group. If the Dogs are competitive he deserves big credit because on paper, the Dogs have the worst list in the league today and I'd argue worse even than that of St Kilda and Melbourne to be totally honest with you.

The list for me thought is way too young and last offseason I felt was a big loss. Losing Cooney, Gia, Griffen, Higgins, Jones and Williams all in the one offseason is disastrous! That's 1000 games of experience lost in that group that was delisted last year. And only really Boyd was gained, and he'll take another few years before being a reliable option in the front half.

If you ask me the question who would I start a team with, looking to start a new team and looking long term. I'd have Bontempelli up there with those very first guys you'd pick. Libba is terrific, as is Macrae. Minson and Murphy as veterans are both terrific. Dahlhaus can really play. Crameri as a forward is a real impact player and Stringer in time can also be. Mitch Wallis is a component to a winning team. T.Boyd long term can be terrific and M.Boyd is still productive. So there are some pieces there as there are on any team.
But it's not nearly a midfield with the talent of GWS. Griffen, Ward, Treloar and Shiel would all be starting mids for the Dogs this season with Liberatore injured. And if you were in theory to put the Dogs list and GWS list together to create a best 22 I can only see Bontempelli, Libba, Macrae, Minson, Murphy, Dahlhaus and Crameri being a part of that best team.
So there is still a lot that needs to be added to that developing core and a lot of established players who can really help to build something meaningful.

Just through the draft or through opposition talent identification, I'm not excited by the moves the Dogs have made all in all if looking at the totality of what I've seen since the Dogs have trended downward. The young talent other than those obvious options doesn't excite me a great deal, then there hasn't been a whole lot of good established talent added with a lot of the Dogs best talent walking out the door.
As a small market team down the bottom of the ladder, it's challenging to add those established players. But for me that's what will need to happen for a meaningful push up the ladder to happen.

 

[Knightmare]

KM I am assuming the Blues finish bottom 4, it is obvious we need at least 1 key forward. Is there a clear selection with a top 5 pick? I am also hoping we might have another pick in top 6 by letting Kruezar go via free agency and getting pick 6 as compo, is there a standout KPD who could eventually replace Jamo.

Carlton finishing bottom 4? I see Carlton finishing more around that 9-14 region myself, but it's round one, ladder positions are anyone's guess at this stage. While the young talent on the Carlton list is fairly baron - with Menzel and Cripps the two obvious exceptions who can break through and establish themselves or in the case of Menzel become more of a factor at AFL level. Carlton still have more than enough established talent and had added a number of recycled players and mature age recruits over recent seasons, so I think Carlton will be a lot more competitive than you're thinking.

I'd also advise holding onto Kreuzer and other established players. I'd hope Carlton fans of all people would know better than putting all your chips into the draft and hoping to build that way. And certainly not Kreuzer who is the one worthwhile ruckman on Carlton's list with Robert Warnock a tap ruckman who doesn't find it around the ground and Cameron Wood a long time non-improver who is neither a dominant tap ruckman or a consistent threat forward of centre. Also worth noting with the compensation formula and how it is set up, it's not going to get you that high first round pick you may think it will, and based on Higgins and Malceski only attracting 2nd round picks last year, that's what I'd anticipate Kreuzer would fetch Carlton in the situation he walks, with the compensation not there with the intent to fully compensate teams for the loss of whoever walks during free agency.

But to answer your questions. In the top 5 if you want a key defender. Jacob Weitering is the standout guy and a genuine top 5 pick. He last year spent time up on a wing showing he could really use it and be a factor offensively. But he is now genuine key position size and would at CHB be ideal - though perhaps there would be overlap with Jaksch, even though Weitering is a substantially better option. So given that overlap I'd probably pass in Carlton's situation assuming the club still see Jaksch as a long term option at seasons end. Second round with key defenders Kieran Collins and Sam Skinner would be possibles and they are two to watch.

As your key forwards Joshua Schache is the clear standout for me. Could be a consideration top 5, but at this stage probably closer to pick 10 feels better. Sam Weideman if you don't mind the Collingwood heritage could be a possibility but is probably more a late first rounder at this stage.
Matthew Allen and Karl Brown could be two further key forwards who may rise up the rankings with strong seasons, but still both have a lot to improve and could just as easily go late draft or even go undrafted depending on what they show over the season.

 

[matt_bas]

Hey mate, great effort so far. What's your thoughts on J Matera? You don't rate him high enough to go highe or more that no one will bid for him?

 

[Knightmare]

Hey mate, great effort so far. What's your thoughts on J Matera? You don't rate him high enough to go highe or more that no one will bid for him?

The vast majority of the father sons to be honest with you I've got in there to be kind and to let fans know they exist and could be of some late draft relevance with improvement, as I know as I do every year I will get countless questions about those who are father son eligible.

Matera last season as a forward didn't have much of an influence outside of kicking a few goals in a couple of games and one game where he really brought a great tackling energy.

This season Matera is on the upward which is the sign you want and with his footballing pedigree he has some chance to develop. This season he is starting to find more of the ball, hit the scoreboard more consistently and has stepped up the pressure side to his game, and seems a few cm taller and a few kg heavier. So he is doing his part, now it's on him to continue to improve on the early season benchmark he has set for himself over the course of the season.

Matera isn't a dominant talent and doesn't look like going early. But someone who is doing enough, where if he continues his progress, you could take a shot at him late. That's where I'd consider his draft relevance to be at to give you that rough feel.