Certified Legendary Thread Race for the flag, in squiggly lines

[sverik25]

Wow look at where the bulldogs ended up..

Squiggle mistaken the last quarter against the Suns for the whole game?

 

[Spoken4]

No I put money on a Hawks-Freo Grand Final mid year in 2013. $9 it was paying.

Anyway the real issue is why is the top of the ladder team so far off the mark that even Melbourne would probably beat them this week. What is happening?

Could be a range of things. Mid-season form slump, 4 weeks in a row playing in the wet, heavy training load, several players struggling for form etc.

Port went through the same thing last year but lost too many games during their slump to finish top 4. They recaptured their form leading into the finals and went within a whisker of beating Hawthorn in a prelim (they should have won that game with significantly more scoring shots).

I expect (and hope) for Freo to capture the form they showed in the first part of the season and finish the season strong.

 

[Richo83]

Didn't a poster show you up for saying that Freo wouldn't make the 2013 grand final?

That was me. And guess who thinks you have no chance of winning the grand final? Me. You don't score enough and you don't have the depth that Hawthorn does nor the experience winning the key games. Roby has said this for years now, and guess what? He's right! And in previous years, so has the squiggle. It thought that Fremantle was more likely to win the grand final early in the year because Fremantle kept winning, Hawthorn dropped some games and it seemed like Hawthorn would have to play Fremantle at home (Hawthorn win that IMO) but don't be surprised if it changes, if it's already changing. My prediction is that Hawthorn are in the squiggle predicted grand final by round 22, wouldn't be surprised if the squiggle is predicting a Hawthorn grand final by then too, where it's Hawthorn v West Coast, Sydney or Fremantle and Hawthorn is winning. They're, what one win off second? And they play second and third in matches where they'll start favourites?

Plus, the squiggle has Hawthorn around where Hawthorn's 2008 premiership is, whereas no premiership side scored so little as Fremantle currently does. So while the squiggle isn't predicting a Hawthorn grand final because it thinks it will lose on the road, it still thinks that Hawthorn has a premiership type form, whereas Fremantle doesn't. Simple fact is that Fremantle haven't proven to anyone that they can beat Hawthorn, let alone Hawthorn at the MCG, especially in a grand final.

 

[Richo83]

Could be a range of things. Mid-season form slump, 4 weeks in a row playing in the wet, heavy training load, several players struggling for form etc.

Port went through the same thing last year but lost too many games during their slump to finish top 4. They recaptured their form leading into the finals and went within a whisker of beating Hawthorn in a prelim (they should have won that game with significantly more scoring shots).

I expect (and hope) for Freo to capture the form they showed in the first part of the season and finish the season strong.

Poor forwardline that requires a winning score from a small forwardline and midfielders and keeping the opposition to 60 points, two things which wont and don't happen if you're playing Hawthorn in a grand final.

 

[Spoken4]

That was me. And guess who thinks you have no chance of winning the grand final? Me. You don't score enough and you don't have the depth that Hawthorn does nor the experience winning the key games. Roby has said this for years now, and guess what? He's right! And in previous years, so has the squiggle. It thought that Fremantle was more likely to win the grand final early in the year because Fremantle kept winning, Hawthorn dropped some games and it seemed like Hawthorn would have to play Fremantle at home (Hawthorn win that IMO) but don't be surprised if it changes, if it's already changing. My prediction is that Hawthorn are in the squiggle predicted grand final by 22, wouldn't be surprised if the squiggle is predicting a Hawthorn grand final by then too, where it's Hawthorn v West Coast, Sydney or Fremantle and Hawthorn is winning. They're, what one win off second? And they play second and third in matches where they'll start favourites?

Plus, the squiggle has Hawthorn around where Hawthorn's 2008 premiership is, whereas no premiership side scored so little as Fremantle currently does. So while the squiggle isn't predicting a Hawthorn grand final because it thinks it will lose on the road, it still thinks that Hawthorn has a premiership type form, whereas Fremantle doesn't. Simple fact is that Fremantle haven't proven to anyone that they can beat Hawthorn, let alone Hawthorn at the MCG, especially in a grand final.

Agree that scoring has dried up. But Freo was top 4 for offense in the first 1/3 of the season and that was against quality opposition. Hoping for a form reversal in the coming weeks.

 

[Spoken4]

Poor forwardline that requires a winning score from a small forwardline and midfielders and keeping the opposition to 60 points, two things which wont and don't happen if you're playing Hawthorn in a grand final.

Yet Hawthorn smashed Freo today with no Roughead and Gunston being held goaless? Their midfield scoring is what did the damage.

 

[Lithium]

Funny thing is, if we loose to the Swans next week we won't stand a chance.

 

[Crankyhawk]

Wow, a whole 4 months age difference. Your point is what exactly?

Acute bean deficiency.

 

[Richo83]

Yet Hawthorn smashed Freo today with no Roughead and Gunston being held goaless? Their midfield scoring is what did the damage.

Tasmania isn't really a key forward's state. On the MCG in September, you need a side which scores more than 70-80 points. Hawthorn has the firepower, Fremantle doesn't. And doesn't the fact that Hawthorn scored 115 points without Roughead and Gunston firing prove my point that they have so many more weapons than Fremantle? Fremantle are missing Johnson, that's obvious. But if Fremantle are to be seen as premiership contenders, they're going to need to work through losing one key defender.

Agree that scoring has dried up. But Freo was top 4 for offense in the first 1/3 of the season and that was against quality opposition. Hoping for a form reversal in the coming weeks.

All the good sides you've beaten, you've beaten at home. You've lost 10 of the last 12 games against Hawthorn, and you haven't beaten Hawthorn in Victoria since 2001. You also haven't beaten Sydney in Sydney since 2011.

 

[Spoken4]

Acute bean deficiency.

It's a serious medical condition!!

 

[markr]

About now is when the Hawks have typically looked really flat over the last few years. I've always attributed it to a big training load to peak for finals, and we certainly aren't the only club to do it. We can't do it this year because we lost too many games early. It's what I'd be looking to if I was a Freo fan. I wouldn't be too concerned unless unless the form wasn't back by round 17-18.

 

[Spoken4]

Tasmania isn't really a key forward's state. On the MCG in September, you need a side which scores more than 70-80 points. Hawthorn has the firepower, Fremantle doesn't. And doesn't the fact that Hawthorn scored 115 points without Roughead and Gunston firing prove my point that they have so many more weapons than Fremantle? Fremantle are missing Johnson, that's obvious. But if Fremantle are to be seen as premiership contenders, they're going to need to work through losing one key defender.

Actually, no it doesn't. Earlier in the season, Fyfe, Mundy and Barlow were kicking 2-3 goals per game. Hill and Pearce were regularly kicking multiple goals. Fact that they are not doing that right now doesn't change the fact that they can be weapons much like Hawthorn's midfielders.

All the good sides you've beaten, you've beaten at home. You've lost 10 of the last 12 games against Hawthorn, and you haven't beaten Hawthorn in Victoria since 2001. You also haven't beaten Sydney in Sydney since 2011.

We've beaten a number of top 8 sides away this year (Adelaide, Western Bulldogs). Lost two one top 8 side at home (Richmond) and one away (Hawthorn).

Referencing Sydney is probably not the best right now as they are barely going either. In any event, Freo drew with them last year in Sydney.

 

[The King!]

Freo were lucky to get that draw we also beat them in the final then they went out in straight sets

 

[Spoken4]

Freo were lucky to get that draw we also beat them in the final then they went out in straight sets

Yep you certainly did.

 

[TassieEagle]

Tasmania isn't really a key forward's state. On the MCG in September, you need a side which scores more than 70-80 points. Hawthorn has the firepower, Fremantle doesn't. And doesn't the fact that Hawthorn scored 115 points without Roughead and Gunston firing prove my point that they have so many more weapons than Fremantle? Fremantle are missing Johnson, that's obvious. But if Fremantle are to be seen as premiership contenders, they're going to need to work through losing one key defender.

One Word: Thirteen

 

[Richo83]

Actually, no it doesn't. Earlier in the season, Fyfe, Mundy and Barlow were kicking 2-3 goals per game. Hill and Pearce were regularly kicking multiple goals. Fact that they are not doing that right now doesn't change the fact that they can be weapons much like Hawthorn's midfielders.

Yet Hawthorn also has the forwardline to score. I mean if Fremantle's attack was as good as Hawthorn's, then why has Hawthorn outscored Fremantle by 376 points this year? That's an average of about 25 points per game. Even the advanced metrics like the squiggle says the same thing.

We've beaten a number of top 8 sides away this year (Adelaide, Western Bulldogs). Lost two one top 8 side at home (Richmond) and one away (Hawthorn).

Referencing Sydney is probably not the best right now as they are barely going either. In any event, Freo drew with them last year in Sydney.

Sydney are closer to the flag than Fremantle is IMO. But yes, you've beaten a few mid table sides, but full disclosure, you aren't seen as a legitimate chance for winning the grand final in Richo's rankings until you beat Hawthorn in Victoria. I can't help but feel like Hawthorn is the gatekeeper of the flag, beat Hawthorn, then you have a chance. And you may have to do it in Victoria as well.

 

[Richo83]

One Word: Thirteen

Two words: North's "backline".

 

[Royce Hafey]

Yet Hawthorn smashed Freo today with no Roughead and Gunston being held goaless? Their midfield scoring is what did the damage.

They could do it because they were playing against you - not another Hawthorn.

 

[DrEvil_]

Eagles tracking very well. Underrated by all at the moment. I see them as Hawthorn 2008, young, in form, and would not be surprise if they go all the way this year.

 

[Xtreme]

Have previously mentioned that the Eagles are the team I'd love to see win the flag if Hawthorn don't. Most people write them off because of the fixture they have not truly "testing" them. But if Collingwood, Sydney, Fremantle can say it... then the Eagles can only beat who they face each and every week and they have done well for themselves this year.

 

[Hawkk]

Funny thing is, if we loose to the Swans next week we won't stand a chance.

Why?

If we qualify for the top 4 we are a massive chance

Two cracks at an interstate final followed by MCG finals is all we need

 

[Hawkk]

Yet Hawthorn also has the forwardline to score. I mean if Fremantle's attack was as good as Hawthorn's, then why has Hawthorn outscored Fremantle by 376 points this year? That's an average of about 25 points per game. Even the advanced metrics like the squiggle says the same thing.



Sydney are closer to the flag than Fremantle is IMO. But yes, you've beaten a few mid table sides, but full disclosure, you aren't seen as a legitimate chance for winning the grand final in Richo's rankings until you beat Hawthorn in Victoria. I can't help but feel like Hawthorn is the gatekeeper of the flag, beat Hawthorn, then you have a chance. And you may have to do it in Victoria as well.

In fairness to Fremantle its very difficult to defeat Hawthorn in Victoria when the ridiculous fixturing does not allow

 

[Hawkk]

Have previously mentioned that the Eagles are the team I'd love to see win the flag if Hawthorn don't. Most people write them off because of the fixture they have not truly "testing" them. But if Collingwood, Sydney, Fremantle can say it... then the Eagles can only beat who they face each and every week and they have done well for themselves this year.

The real precedent in recent times is Adelaide circa 2012

 

[Suntory Boss Coffee]

The real precedent in recent times is Adelaide circa 2012

West Coast is actually in good squiggle territory though. Adelaide were in an awful spot.

 

[Billy ray]

West coast to beat sydney by 9 points! Aargh!
Who would have thought the sequel to the sequel, would be as good as good as the original and sequel.....