Prediction How many wins to Mid-season bye ?

[RookiePick]

I played with that ladder predictor thingy.

I had us at 16-6 away to Norf in a week 1 elimination final.

Faaark I hope I am just pessimistic about our chances and rating other teams more highly. I had 3 teams on 18 wins and 3 teams on 17 wins lol.

 

[KamakazeSalami]

Just did the ladder predictor on the AFL site, and I've got Cats on top with 18 wins, then GWS, Swans & Hawks all on 17, then Eagles, Dogs & Crows on 16, and Norf in 8th on 15 wins. Then 9th is on 11 wins. So it's going to be very even by the looks of it (well in my view anyway) So we need to keep smashing sides at home, and try and pinch one of those harder away games to push into the top 4, and possibly top 2.

Fair few variables in that though, Hawks could fall away, so could Cats, GWS, and even us or the crows, Dogs are an unknown away from Etihad. Anything could happen, but every game from now is crucial. Glad we didn't choke against Port.

I realise you've used the ladder predictor and it's based on current form, however, recent history shows that 12 wins gives you a very good chance of making the 8 (something like 85%) and 13 wins guarantees it (see article below). Further, while teams have made the top four with only 13 wins, 16 wins seems to guarantee it. This suggests that along the way there are going to be hiccups and teams are more likely to lose a few they aren't meant to and as we've seen in the past all it takes is an injury to a key player (Mummy for GWS last year, Gaz for the Suns the year before) for things to go pear shaped....that and the Hawks seem to be able to time their run perfectly. Bastards!

I think we can go 10-3. Optimistic I know, but I feel like things are slowwwwwwwly coming together for us. I think we underestimate the impact of a shortened pre-season on the players. I'm heartened by the fact we have not played our best footy yet and are still in a decent position. We'd want to get our shit together soon though.

http://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/lei...n/news-story/90261db1d54e5847a31938d690e5fc85

 

[WCE_phil]

While historically 12 wins gave you a good chance of making the 8 that is no longer the case as there are now 18 teams instead of 16. If you have 16 teams in a comp with a final 8 then 12 wins potentially gets you there as it's just above 50/50. In an 18 team competition i think 13 wins now is what 12 wins used to be.

 

[KamakazeSalami]

While historically 12 wins gave you a good chance of making the 8 that is no longer the case as there are now 18 teams instead of 16. If you have 16 teams in a comp with a final 8 then 12 wins potentially gets you there as it's just above 50/50. In an 18 team competition i think 13 wins now is what 12 wins used to be.

Theoretically this seems right yet in reality since the expansion clubs have come in there has only been one year where 8th place had more than 13 wins (in 2012). And even in that year 13 wins would have secured 8th spot (Port were 9th with 12 wins).

8th on ladder (number of wins)
2011 - Essendon (11)
2012 - North Melb (14)
2013 - Carlton (11) ...would have been Port (12) if not for Essendon's sanction
2014 - Richmond (12)
2015 - North Melb (13)

Small sample size still I guess but it seems if you can get to 12 wins you're a 'pretty good' chance of making the Eight, but 13 guarantees it.

Sent from my SM-G900I using Tapatalk

 

[Keys]

Bulldogs away
Adelaide home
Brisbane away

Need to win two of these minimum and get to the bye at 9-4 at worst

Contrasting games against solid sides in the next 2 weeks

Bulldogs are the strongest defensive team in the top 8 but the lowest scoring

Adelaide are the opposite - the highest scoring team with the leakiest defence

So expect a scrap followed by a shootout

For the record we are the 4th highest scoring side in the 8 and have conceded the 4th lowest scores against

 

[kranky al]

I get the feeling we are starting to hit our straps after the late start to preseason. Im going to be bullish and say all three are winnable and anything less than 2 and a competitive loss is a complete fail.

Having said that im expecting all three.

 

[SpaceClef]

Im writing us off this year if we put up the same sort of performance against WB as we did against Hawthorn/Geelong.

 

[Biggie]

Im writing us off this year if we put up the same sort of performance against WB as we did against Hawthorn/Geelong.

A fair call.

I'm backing we'll come out fairly focused & ready for the battle this weekend.

 

[FatPizza]

As long as we're mentally switched on next Sunday I think we're in with a very good chance. Whilst the Bulldogs are a very good team, apart from maybe Stringer(who's been very hot and cold lately) there's not much that particularly 'scares' me.

 

[kranky al]

Mr squiggle sees us as second after rd 10.....

 

[Beutbrute]

During the telecast on the weekend one of the commentators made a fair call (I think it was Gerard Healy) He mentioned not to underestimate the impact McKenzie will have towards the back end of the season as he gets over his knee injury. I think this is a good point. Thoughts?

 

[Biggie]

Its a good point.

 

[Matera LeNui]

To tip us this week or not...

 

[DickDunn]

I get the feeling we are starting to hit our straps after the late start to preseason. Im going to be bullish and say all three are winnable and anything less than 2 and a competitive loss is a complete fail.

Having said that im expecting all three.

Completely agree. We're showing a lot more intent too, I reckon. We were sloppy at times yesterday but our pressure was much better.

I think the Dogs are beatable. Just need to be prepared to scrap it out.

 

[SpaceClef]

Completely agree. We're showing a lot more intent too, I reckon. We were sloppy at times yesterday but our pressure was much better.

I think the Dogs are beatable. Just need to be prepared to scrap it out.

When we are fired up and physical we become a 3-4 goal better side IMO

I really like that Simpson acknowledged we won't be able to rely on sexy (flat track) footy to win big games and finals.

We looked so much better against Port because we played hard footy. if the message about dirty footy keeps filtering through to the players, we will be every chance to beat the Dogs.

If the players want to play like millionaires then they'll get pumped

 

[JackOutback]

I get the feeling we are starting to hit our straps after the late start to preseason. Im going to be bullish and say all three are winnable and anything less than 2 and a competitive loss is a complete fail.

Having said that im expecting all three.

I've been arguing the same for a few weeks now. I think the Eagles are timing their run and will be a top four, hopefully top two, team this year. Guys like McKenzie, Redden and Jetta will become more comfortable as the season goes on (already seeing good signs from EMac and Redden, Jetta was ok yesterday). I think we will drop one game at worst before the bye, but could see us winning all three.

 

[MIKE85]

I feel like the dogs amsbushed us a bit last year. Nobody expected them to be as good as they were, it was our first game without our fullback, and minutes in we lost our replacement FB to an ACL. They did however kick pretty badly, and I think the 10 point margin flattered us a little (think they had 10 more scoring shots)

I feel like we know what to expect now from the Dogs, and if we have a go, we can win it. Etihad can suit our style, and with their backline looking a little shaky, we could have the fire power to get it done.

Having said all that, I'm a negative prick, so I'll be assuming a loss, as I usually do

 

[Lolbert]

I feel like the dogs amsbushed us a bit last year. Nobody expected them to be as good as they were, it was our first game without our fullback, and minutes in we lost our replacement FB to an ACL. They did however kick pretty badly, and I think the 10 point margin flattered us a little (think they had 10 more scoring shots)

I feel like we know what to expect now from the Dogs, and if we have a go, we can win it. Etihad can suit our style, and with their backline looking a little shaky, we could have the fire power to get it done.

Having said all that, I'm a negative prick, so I'll be assuming a loss, as I usually do

I'm always pessimistic too. I think our game plan matches up pretty well against the WB. We NEED to be kicking accurately though, which we have done of late. Big game needed from our talls up from and in defence.

 

[Hap Hapablap]

i think winning this game will go a long way in our premiership credentials.

the only away games id be slightly worried after this is collingwood gws and adelaide but theyre all winnable.

win this and we could literally go on a winning spree for some time ahead.

 

[Forward Press]

We beat the Dogs and Adelaide, and we will be premiership favourites.

Cannot overstate the importance of our game this weekend, and next, they will really determine where we sit this year. Beating Port away got the monkey off the back, but in the end they are still an ordinary side this year, and it was business as usual against Gold Coast which no-one gave a shit about.

Defensively the best team in the comp after Round 10, putting 100 past the Dogs on their own dungheap will have the Vics worried.

 

[ziad]

I have my seat for the Crows game in Adelaide. So Far I have see two beltings - one each way. What will it be?

I am growing in confidence as the team settles in. Lysett and Nic getting physical along with Bunger will make the team stand taller. I suspect this is the Simmo plan.

 

[SpaceClef]

We beat the Dogs and Adelaide, and we will be premiership favourites.

Cannot overstate the importance of our game this weekend, and next, they will really determine where we sit this year. Beating Port away got the monkey off the back, but in the end they are still an ordinary side this year, and it was business as usual against Gold Coast which no-one gave a shit about.

Defensively the best team in the comp after Round 10, putting 100 past the Dogs on their own dungheap will have the Vics worried.

We couldn't kick 100 against a Port side with no ruckman.

Not saying we won't win, but it's pretty unlikely we'll dominate to that extent

 

[kranky al]

We beat the Dogs and Adelaide, and we will be premiership favourites.

Cannot overstate the importance of our game this weekend, and next, they will really determine where we sit this year. Beating Port away got the monkey off the back, but in the end they are still an ordinary side this year, and it was business as usual against Gold Coast which no-one gave a shit about.

Defensively the best team in the comp after Round 10, putting 100 past the Dogs on their own dungheap will have the Vics worried.

Sydney would be who i bet the house on if i were forced to bet my house on it.

 

[Brer Bear]

Everyone done melting yet? 9 wins 4 losses wouldn't be the end of the world.

 

[DickDunn]

Everyone done melting yet? 9 wins 4 losses wouldn't be the end of the world.

Can't see us beating Adelaide next week.

The most frustrating thing is we don't play another good side away until mid-August. The flat track bully tag isn't going away.