Analysis 2016 List Management Discussion

[HBF]

http://www.theage.com.au/afl/afl-ne...oalkicker-matthew-wright-20160721-gqb0zn.html

Thoroughly deserved. Has done far more than what I thought we'd get out of him this year.

 

[LordLucifer]

Thoroughly deserved. Has done far more than what I thought we'd get out of him this year.

Agreed !!

 

[LordLucifer]

I actually really like Rowe, but what could he be worth on the market?

Bugger all.

 

[HBF]

Still think we can well and truly satisfy Gold Coasts demands. SOS is a very smart operator at the trade table.

 

[HBF]

Agreed !!

He'd almost be the first player signed this year I reckon.

 

[LordLucifer]

Question for all those advocating the recruitment of Adam Tomlinson ........

Why would you bring him to the club when he would be playing the same role that young Jack Silvagni is right now ??

Added to that, if we don't trade Everitt and CCurnow doesn't move into the midfield, wouldn't they too be playing a similiar role to that which Tomlinson would be recruited for ??

 

[Jabba73]

Deserves a two year contract imo... not just one.

If he's happy with a 1 yr deal it's good, as it doesn't limit us next year if SOS and co want to shake things up.

Sent from my SM-N915G using Tapatalk

Never said only give him one year, simply said he deserves another contract. Would be shocked if we only offered one year after what he has given us this year.

 

[Jabba73]

Question for all those advocating the recruitment of Adam Tomlinson ........

Why would you bring him to the club when he would be playing the same role that young Jack Silvagni is right now ??

Added to that, if we don't trade Everitt and CCurnow doesn't move into the midfield, wouldn't they too be playing a similiar role to that which Tomlinson would be recruited for ??

Yes, two mobile and strong marking half forwards are much harder to stop than one.

Everritt can play in the reserves if he is not performing better than the others, C Cunow should get more exposure in the middle and could easily play from the square if needed to. Long leads then back to goal would kill most full backs, early Buddy style. Can't see us playing all 4 in the one side as forwards, Everritt seems to be the one most likely to give way if he cannot reinvent himself or become much more consistent and uncompromising.

 

[BluesRule]

Very happy today to see Jenkins sign along the dotted line. Casboult's stock just rose considerably, particularly at Brisbane.

What can we expect / hope for in return? I think a first-round pick isn't out of the question.

If Cas is traded to Brisbane I wonder if we can work pick #4 and pick #2 into the deal so we can get Brodie (assuming Essendon take McCluggage with #1)?

i.e. Cas and pick #4 to Brisbane for picks #20 and #2? That would be a great outcome.

Probably optimistic

 

[Mezzoculo]

Still think we can well and truly satisfy Gold Coasts demands. SOS is a very smart operator at the trade table.

I'm not sure if I should be getting excited by the upcoming trade period, but I am!

 

[BluesRule]

Apparently we've now "entered the race" for Prestia.

I hope it isn't true. I want a second batch of early draft picks.

Want both picks and new traded talent.
Like last year please

 

[HARKER]

Question for all those advocating the recruitment of Adam Tomlinson ........

Why would you bring him to the club when he would be playing the same role that young Jack Silvagni is right now ??

Added to that, if we don't trade Everitt and CCurnow doesn't move into the midfield, wouldn't they too be playing a similiar role to that which Tomlinson would be recruited for ??

Not advocating anything re. Tomlinson but he'd play a very different role to Silvagni.

He'd be wing/half forward.............a player that can run all day along with CCurnow.........Flexibility is the key.

 

[Gethelred]

Lol we'd be incredibly stupid to draft Todd Marshall.

Marshall would have been behind McKay and others last year as a KPP and is only being pushed up because there are no KPP in this draft.

Mids only please.

I seem to recall people saying exactly that about Cam McCarthy in his draft year; that he was expected to go between late first round and early second, because the draft was a midfielders draft, and he was only being mentioned because he was the only likely looking key position prospect in the draft.

Fast forward to last year, he was in the conversation for the coleman early, and had succeeded in pushing Patton out of the GWS forward line.

Given I haven't seen him play, and beyond that clip I know nothing about him, if others who are in the know believe him to be an AFL talent then I'm all for his selection. Imagine having two huge key talls, but unlike the unwieldy Nth Melbourne set McKay and Marshall are maneuverable, agile and quicker than their opponents. They'd clunk the marks, or bring them down and rove just as well.

Honestly, while I can understand your perspective, you've a habit of going a bit hard a bit early. Don't see why you feel so strongly about what is just conjecture.

 

[FlowersByIrene]

I seem to recall people saying exactly that about Cam McCarthy in his draft year; that he was expected to go between late first round and early second, because the draft was a midfielders draft, and he was only being mentioned because he was the only likely looking key position prospect in the draft.

Fast forward to last year, he was in the conversation for the coleman early, and had succeeded in pushing Patton out of the GWS forward line.

Given I haven't seen him play, and beyond that clip I know nothing about him, if others who are in the know believe him to be an AFL talent then I'm all for his selection. Imagine having two huge key talls, but unlike the unwieldy Nth Melbourne set McKay and Marshall are maneuverable, agile and quicker than their opponents. They'd clunk the marks, or bring them down and rove just as well.

Honestly, while I can understand your perspective, you've a habit of going a bit hard a bit early. Don't see why you feel so strongly about what is just conjecture.

He may be good, but id rather someone else have that fun, we need mids. No good have three or four big key forwards with no clean inside50's

 

[Smalls0304]

I don't believe the points systems can be used for that way, to me it's just a system built by the AFL to put some structure around the academy system.

A gun midfielder is worth a lot more than an average HBFer and an upgrade from pick 16 to 9....particularly when history shows us the difference between those picks is rrally only personal preference. There is unlikely to be any significant difference in exposed talent, it's not like it gets them to the pointy end of the draft.

Sydney would only do that if Mitchell was definitely leaving and no one offered anything better. Why wouldn't they just take a first round pick and get two goes at the draft?

Touchy has a bit to offer but he's not much more than average. Plenty of players like him and around. Not to mention that Sydney have taken to playing a couple of their umpteen quality mids across HB.

I think you're undervaluing Touhy. He was Coaches Assosiation team of the year last year, voted by the coaches. That puts him in the top 2-3 running defenders for the year and he has carried alot of that form into this year.

 

[Azul]

Not advocating anything re. Tomlinson but he'd play a very different role to Silvagni.

He'd be wing/half forward.............a player that can run all day along with CCurnow.........Flexibility is the key.

'Swingman'. Walker, White and Everitt won't be at the club in 2018. (nor Jamison, Foster, Jones, Rowe)

pick your 6 talls, 2 rucks and Cripps, with Tomlinson a bench warmer whom the coach brings on to play any number of positions.

B: Glass-McC
HB: Weits Plow
C: Cripps
HF: McKay C-Curnow
F: Silvagni
R: Kreuzer
Int: Phillips, *Tomlinson

 

[Blue Baggers]

Tomlinson is going to be a big bodied mid at carlton. Marchbank is upto 70% heading to blues. Have a little faith in the direction of the club. I think we'll be pleasantly surprised

 

[Blue_Fusion]

Alrighty, might want to slow down a second here.

In 2001-2005, the Hawks had the advantage of different priority pick rules, which gave them a comparative treasure trove to build with.

While this is true, it doesn't take away from the fact that it is what it is. Early picks yielded elite talent. Same story these days, only we don't have it as easy to get them. That's why I said we need to be bold and trade one of our best players.

 

[Azul]

I think you're undervaluing Touhy. He was Coaches Assosiation team of the year last year, voted by the coaches. That puts him in the top 2-3 running defenders for the year and he has carried alot of that form into this year.

Positionally, maybe.

But first picked in drafts are mids, key positions, gun rucks, goalkicking small forwards. Priorities for half back flankers who don't rotate through the midfield are well down on that list.

Sydney have been mentioned, mainly because they face generational change in their backline with Teddy going, Johnson and Reid injury central, Talia on drugs and Grundy turning 30. Even then, their first pick sounds too high for someone of Tuohy's years.

 

[Smalls0304]

Positionally, maybe.

But first picked in drafts are mids, key positions, gun rucks, goalkicking small forwards. Priorities for half back flankers who don't rotate through the midfield are well down on that list.

Sydney have been mentioned, mainly because they face generational change in their backline with Teddy going, Johnson and Reid injury central, Talia on drugs and Grundy turning 30. Even then, their first pick sounds too high for someone of Tuohy's years.

26 years old? When they are in a premiership window? Dont know what KPP like Teddy, Grundy & Reid have to do with Tuohy? Completely different position. They've lost Shaw and Malceski and didnt replace them with any genuine HBF. Mills is being played there but is a midfielder. I agree Tuohy isnt worth their first alone, but i do believe that they are interested in him because he fits a need. I dont really get the point you were trying to make in bold

 

[LordLucifer]

He may be good, but id rather someone else have that fun, we need mids. No good have three or four big key forwards with no clean inside50's

We traded #7 two-years ago, Brisbane took Peter Wright at #8 in that draft. Look at his progress this year, we'd give our left leg to have him on our list now.

Marshall could be like Wright, I'd be trusting the recruiting people to make that call as they will know better than all of us mugs on the internet.

We need more mids, we all know that and are hoping the club will draft some more good ones this year. But we shouldn't cut off our nose to spite our face if this Marshall kid (or another of his height etc) is deemed to be a good long-term investment.

I've said it before and I'll say it again, the immediate & urgent shopping list via the draft for us is 4-5 grunt mids (with speed) & 2-3 genuine key position players over the next two years. The order in which they are assembled is irrelevant to me as long as we get 6-8 players of serious quality.

Once we have exhausted all of our efforts (ie. sharp trading of players for draft picks etc) gaining those specific player types only then should we look at our other less pressing needs (eg. small crumbing forward, another back-up ruck etc)

 

[LordLucifer]

Positionally, maybe.

But first picked in drafts are mids, key positions, gun rucks, goalkicking small forwards. Priorities for half back flankers who don't rotate through the midfield are well down on that list.

Sydney have been mentioned, mainly because they face generational change in their backline with Teddy going, Johnson and Reid injury central, Talia on drugs and Grundy turning 30. Even then, their first pick sounds too high for someone of Tuohy's years.

But we'll take it if they offer it.

 

[Blue_Fusion]

Yes, I do still hold that view, we will play finals next season.

Fair enough. Not sure what draws you to that conclusion though.

The poster you referenced had a clearly laid out vision of how the trading would go, no where did it include giving up pick #4 or more for Prestia. No body has suggested that, in fact, no experienced AFL trade observer would suggest such a thing. Prestia is originally a what? Pick #9, he's currently out for the rest of the season with a knee injury, has had other injuries in the past and is, most importantly, out of contract. No one will be giving pick #4 for Prestia, it will be a much lower deal. I'd suggest somewhere in the #12-20 range or equivalent players/points. Again, no one has suggested Marchbank is worth pick #4, and we won't be giving up pick #4 for him, the Carlton football club has categorically stated we will not be trading out of the first round this year. No matter who we get trade wise, we'll still have at least one pick in the first round. Mitchell, yes "let's not forgwt the midfield he has around him" I agree with that. Because you seem to think Mitchell is some outside midfielder who gets all his disposals off the hard work of others, oh wait, he's a contested bast, has a good tank and gives a scrap. Mitchell is in no way "protected" by the other midfielders. He's not the type of player you tag because his outside work isn't particularly damaging and you can't stop his inside work. He'd be "protected" at Carlton as well as other clubs would always see Cripps, Murphy or Gibbs as more damaging. Will he have the same impact here? You bet he would, he may even have more of an impact.

Yeah he said pick#4, Everitt and Touhy to get Prestia, Mitchell and Marchbank. That is giving up pick#4! And no, I don't "think" anything about Mitchell's game I've watched him play many, many times. When he has the other guys around him then the attention gets focused on them as well. We have a midfield that is nowhere near Sydney's.

I'm all for your trading older experienced players and later picks for higher picks. I agree with that. How would you propose to have a functioning forward line without Casboult is another question. As for the building out of the draft. No body disagrees with you here. I agree with that completely. I've constantly said any trades we should do should be based around trading our 2017 first pick, as we will go up the ladder (As I said above) and we can always trade back into the first round by moving on kids or other mature age players and using our second round pick next year. As for two top 10 picks, well this year would have to be the worst year to do that. Outside of the top 3-5 players it's basically even down to about the twentieth kid. This will be one of those years where pick #16 turns out better than pick #6 etc etc. Two picks in the top 10 is probably worth less this year than any other year. We should aim for one pick in the top four or multiple picks in the #10-20 range.

2017 Draft is said to have some real elite talent in the top 10. Giving up that first rounder would be foolish.

Lol i'm not going to respond to people who suggest trading Gibbs, they obviously don't know anything about football.

But, I have suggested this a few times now and you've responded to me on those occasions as well. Look, if you don't think trading Gibbs is a good idea then fine, you're entitled to your opinion but don't go around saying shit like I know nothing about football. How many times do people have to be told on here not to play the man? It's clear that any mention of trading Gibbs offends you for some reason, you his mate or something? The guy has shown little leadership since Murphy's been out and doesn't go hard at the ball. Exactly what we don't need. In a side like GWS he will thrive. He will have the freedom to play his outside game and get away with it. Shuey bumped him off tackles easily, Shiel bumped him off the ball easily. Gibbs is like the cream on top but he's not going to show the youngsters the way like you think he is.

All well and good, it's certainly one way we could go down, but I think there are better ways.

Well that's great.

Prestia was one of the top 20 midfielders in the game when GC have been well and truly above us on the ladder. They've fallen down the ladder largely due to players like O'Meara, Swallow, Prestia etc being injured for lengths of time. Marchbank was best 22 at the start of the season, played very well and only fell out due to small niggling injuries. Kid is talented. And Mitchell, as you said, is clearlhy best 22 at the Swans.

So now you change your tune. GC are not above us on the ladder. End of story. Marchbank was best 22? Or was he getting a run to see his worth?

Cripps was taken at pick #13 or so, plenty of great footballers have been taken at late first round positions. And if we're really desperate for a top pick. Our first and second can be easily packaged up to an Academy club for their first for points reasons.

Why package our first and second when we can package our second and two third rounders? Like I said pick#24 + #40 + #49 > Pick#9 in terms of points...

As for the Hawks period, they didn't exist in a period where half the top end talent was cornered away at an expansion club. I'm not going to dive too far into that whole conundrum, as it's a bit superflous, you could talk about any club and have different results from their trading. We just need to trust SOS and the team to build a quality list.

Of course we need to trust SOS, but look at what he did last year. Smart trading that got us a plethora of early draft picks and players with potential. That's what I think we should do again this year. I've already mentioned it a multitude of times!

Now let's look at the Carlton team; we already have the following elite talent on the list. Bolded being well and truly proven. I know we have more kids than this in total, but I think these are the kids who are elite or could be best 22 in a Carlton finals side.

2011 Draft: Sumner?? (10) Docherty (12) Kerridge?? (27)
2012 Draft: Plowman (3) Jaksch?? (12) Graham?? (54)
2013 Draft: Cripps (13) Byrne (Cat B Rookie)
2014 Draft: Boekhurst?? (19) Viojo-Rainbow?? (28)
2015 Draft: Weitering (1) McKay?? (10) Curnow (12) Cuningham?? (23) Silvagni?? (53)

Curnow well and truly proven to be elite? Jumping the gun a bit early there. I like the guy and am very excited about his potential but we need to see him in action a bit more to make that call.

I personally think, adding another young, maturer player into the mix who will have an immediate impact is not a bad thing. And I don't believe drafting and trading in players are mutually exclusive. Last year we managed to trade 4 kids inside the top 25 and bring in elite talent via trade. I think we can add elite young talent via trade and the draft this off season.

Neither do I. Again, I've already mentioned this in previous posts.

Do I think we can get Prestia and Mitchell in probably not. But I think we can well and truly secure; Prestia/Mitchell, Pick #4, and a few kids from GWS, maybe Marchbank if we can get the deal right. At the cost of say; Casboult, Touhy, 2017 First and some Seconds/Thirds.

Aquire;

• (GWS 3/4, Marchbank, Tomlinson, Steele/Ahern/WHE, Stewart) = 2017 First Round & Carlton 2016 3rd Round
• Option 1 (Mitchell) = #14 and Touhy. Trade Casboult to Brisbane/Fremantle for pick #20/21 (before FA picks), 3rd Rounder might be necessary to add along here. Trade Pick #20 and Carlton 2nd Round Pick to GWS for GWS's 1st, Roughly #14. Trade #14 and Touhy to Sydney for Mitchell.
  
• Option 1(a) (GC 3rd) = Trade Everitt to GC for their 3rd Round Pick, or higher if they have one.
  
• Option 2 (Prestia) = #14 and Everitt. Trade Casboult to Brisbane/Fremantle for pick #20/21 (before FA picks), 3rd Rounder might be necessary to add along here. Trade Pick #20 and Carlton 2nd Round Pick to GWS for GWS's 1st, Roughly #14. Trade #14 and Everitt to Gold Coast for Prestia.
• Option 2(a) (Syd 2nd) = Trade Touhy to Sydney for their 2nd Round Pick

GAIN: Marchbank, Tomlinson, Steele, Stewart, Mitchell/Prestia and GC 3rd/Syd 2nd
LOSE: 2017 1st Rounder, 2016 2nd Rounder, 3rd Rounder, Bulldogs 3rd Rounder, Casboult, Everitt and Touhy
RETAIN: 2016 1st Rounder

The elite youth would look like so;

2010 Draft: Prestia (9)
2011 Draft: Tomlinson?? (9) Sumner?? (10) Docherty (12) Mitchell (21) Kerridge?? (27)
2012 Draft: Plowman (3) Jaksch?? (12) Stewart?? (27) Graham?? (54)
2013 Draft: Cripps (13) Byrne (Cat B Rookie)
2014 Draft: Marchbank (6) Boekhurst?? (19) Steele (24) Viojo-Rainbow?? (28)
2015 Draft: Weitering (1) McKay?? (10) Curnow (12) Cuningham?? (23) Silvagni?? (53)
2016 Draft: Elite Mid (4) Sydney 2nd, Rookies/Late Picks such as Kerbatieh and Bradley

I prefer Mitchell over Prestia for Mitchells durability, although Prestia is the player with more strings to his bow. Let's for arguments sake, say Will Brodie is pick #4 that we draft this year, because I absolutely love the look of Brodie, although he'll probably go top 2.

FB: Byrne Weitering Marchbank
HB: Docherty Plowman Viojo-Rainbow
R: xxxx Cripps Brodie
C: Boekhurst Mitchell Cuningham
HF: Curnow Stewart Tomlinson
FF: Silvagni McKay Sumner
Int: Steele, Jaksch, Kerridge, Graham

I don't know about others, but I think that's a pretty bloody stellar looking line up.
Then we trade back into the 2017 First round and add another capable kid there, and focus on two things from 2017 onwards, nabbing big Free Agents and hitting our first rounders right.

Looking at the age profile, if we do what I propose, we'll bunch up a lot of our elite kids in the 2011-2015 Draft bracket, a tight bunching that will mean most will peak together and that will be the key to success. From then on we just keep adding kids into an already tight and strong youth core and the snowball effect happens. We go onto win three premierships in a row etc etc.

But you include Brodie even though you don't think we'll get him? Doesn't make sense. Rainbow is struggling in the two's very hard to see him excelling at AFL level.

Here's what I proposed earlier:

We should try and get a second rounder for Casboult. Couple that second rounder with ours and throw in Everitt as steak knives to get that pick from them. Two picks from #23-#27 should have the points of pick#8-#9 covered if not, give up the Dogs third rounder as well.

That will leaves us with Pick #4-#5 + #8-#9 + #40-#41.

Then for the GWS4, we give up a package of players and future second rounder. I'd say throw in Touhy + Rowe and 2017 2nd rounder. Touhy and Rowe should be worth 2 second rounders. Coupled with next year's second rounder it's essentially 3 2nd round dps for Marchbank and Tomlinson. Too many other clubs chasing Steele by the sound of things and it's not worth giving up any extra. I'm already going cold on Tomlinson and Marchbank is already struggling to get on the park. If GWS want to ask for more, then good luck to them I'd say.

Then, next year we will have our top 10 pick from where we finish and we can go all out for another by offering up the 2018 first rounder and another player worthy of a second round pick.

4 top ten picks over the next couple of drafts is what we should be aiming for. Three years of multiple top 10 picks and smart trading will get us where we want to be.

IF that all falls into place, then by 2018 we'll look something like this:

B: Docherty Marchbank Byrne

HB: Gibbs Weitering Plowman

C: Tomlinson Cripps 2016#2

HF: Murphy C.Curnow Boekhorst

F: Silvagni McKay 2017#2

FOL: Kreuzer 2016#1 E.Curnow

I/C: 2017#1, Cuningham, 2016#3, Sumner

With 2016#1 => Pick#4-#5
2016#2 => Pick#8-#9
2017#1 => Pick#6-#7
2017#2 => Pick#9-#10

So you see, I'm not fully against trading in players. Just do NOT want to give up our first rounders. Instead we need to work out how to bring in more! Notice how I kept Gibbs in? Because I know it's highly unlikely that we'll ever trade him.

 

[HBF]

I'm not sure if I should be getting excited by the upcoming trade period, but I am!

I am as well. Suspect we'll be as active as we were last year. Even if we just take the last 24 hours, we are well on our way to securing Marchbank, Tomlinson and Prestia.

 

[Gethelred]

...Marchbank is already struggling to get on the park.

Erm, you do realise he's nineteen, and possibly still growing? A key defender, with rebounding and lockdown skills, capable of playing in the ones for a significant amount of time in the GWS ones, and you seem to be reluctant to part with value for him? Of the GWS 4 mentioned, Marshbank is the one that they really wouldn't like losing, because players of his attributes and skill don't grow on trees.

I agree with a lot of what you've said in that post, but the potting of Tomlinson now he looks almost like a certainty to be wearing the navy next year is getting very old. He is being played out of position at GWS, to cover for injured backmen, and it shows.