Trading the #1 pick

[Donakebab]

Drafting small forwards is seriously hit and miss.

I'd rather draft midfielders that can be rotated through there or developed in to small forwards.

Eh small forwards often rotate through the midfield these days anyway, Ainsworth is the perfect example from this draft.

 

[cdcanman]

Drafting small forwards is seriously hit and miss.

I'd rather draft midfielders that can be rotated through there or developed in to small forwards.

You're not wrong.
However if you created a list of the best small forwards in the game today, or through history, most of them are specialists in that position. Betts, Rioli, Breust, Phil Matera.
Mids who can rotate through are all good and well, but rarely do they change a game when forward.
They've got guys who do a serviceable job in that mid/fwd role. Palmer, Smith, Greene, Reid. None are elite in the fwd 50 though. Imagine how good they would be if they had a truly elite small fwd?

 

[Roadto2018]

I'm not sure GWS need another non academy player tbh, they've already got that much talent so a non academy player likely just leaves after 2 years for unders, so why give a leg up to another club by effectively gifting them two high picks?

 

[The 747]

Purely hypothetical, but consider this:

What if Essendon and Dodoro planned to use pick one to wipe GWS and GC out of the draft?

They could potentially use pick one to bid on Bowes, forcing Gold Coast to move up the draft order and sacrifice much of their draft hand in order to secure him.

Then, holding pick 2, they could do the same thing to GWS by bidding on Setterfield.

Now I'm sure Gold Coast would not let Bowes go, but I'm less sure about GWS.

What I find interesting about this, is the threat of wiping both clubs out of the top end of the draft in exchange for one player each might be an interesting point of leverage in trade negotiations.

Would GWS for example by more inclined to trade with Essendon to relieve them of pick one and avoid that scenario?

As I said, purely hypothetical, I in no way think this is actually what will happen, but I find the possibility of it interesting.

What do you think?

Would work as long as you were sure that both clubs would take the bait and secure the academy player. Or if you actually valued either player at close to one, otherwise you could get screwed in reverse. Didn't Melb and someone do a trade that involved one club agreeing not to bid on a particular player as collateral?

 

[Jade]

Would work as long as you were sure that both clubs would take the bait and secure the academy player. Or if you actually valued either player at close to one, otherwise you could get screwed in reverse. Didn't Melb and someone do a trade that involved one club agreeing not to bid on a particular player as collateral?

Not sure, but would be considered draft tampering if they did.

 

[The 747]

Not sure, but would be considered draft tampering if they did.

Don't know how agreeing not to bid on a player is provable draft tampering.

 

[Jade]

Don't know how agreeing not to bid on a player is provable draft tampering.

You, you know, you know this is the AFL right?

 

[The 747]

You, you know, you know this is the AFL right?

I am sure I heard something about it with Melbourne - not that they came out with a press release on it or anything.

 

[dlanod]

0% chance GWS match a Pick 1 bid on any of their academy players. There is however a chance they trade with EFC in order to get Pick 1 as well as their Academy players. EFC will have no leverage to threaten bidding on their players though.

On GC and Bowes, it would be very hard for them not to match a Pick 1 bid. It is overs however, and even EFC wouldn't be stupid enough to commit that act of bastardry against an AFL client club with a rich trade bounty for years to come.

In short, EFC may trade down their Pick 1, but i don't think either GWS or GC will take remotely seriously the threat of Ess bidding 1 on Bowes or any GWS academy boy.

Just imagine the EFC fans reaction if Dodo got left with Setterfield or even a potentially go-home Bowes with Pick 1 lol. He just wouldn't do it for a whole host of reasons, and everyone in the industry would clearly know that.

GC have already apparently ruled out trading for Pick 1.

GWS may trade a lower first rounder and a player/s for it.

This is 100% my thoughts, so GTFO of my head.

GC has points to spare and needs an infusion of talent with the rumoured departures as well as last year's efforts. They'd absolutely match Bowes, even if it was overs.

GWS would just let the player get taken because they have a number of other prospects and it would ensure no one pulled that on them again. Macreadie might be the exception because he's in a bit of a position of need, but even that's debatable.

 

[Milanista28]

I want a number 1 pick in the side for when he's not performing like a number 1 should and I can defend him against all facts that point to him being a flop! I want that god dammit!!!

 

[YEMOC NAYR]

pick 1 just doesn't have the appeal like other years their is no standout player . Don't think bowes or setterfield is worth pick 1 . GC and GWS would pass .

sure there is no clear top but there is a clear top 2...

 

[TheSunGod]

Are Essendon not satisfied with bringing the game into disrepute already?

If I was Clayton I'd let them have Bowes. Gives us a chance of picking up a better player in Brodie, McLuggage, SPS or Ainsworth with pick 4, then another with Pick 8 (Melbourne) maybe Venables or McGrath, then a few more along with Scheer with our 4 x picks in the twenties. Jack then gets homesick after 2 years and comes back to the coast for a second rounder.

 

[Theo X]

EFC won't use pick 1 to bid on an academy player. The player they then end up taking at 1 will lose any 'feelgood' aura about them as what is meant to be the top rated player in the draft. Essendon need the hope that comes with a pick 1 after the cesspool they've dragged all their supporters and players through.

Would work as long as you were sure that both clubs would take the bait and secure the academy player. Or if you actually valued either player at close to one, otherwise you could get screwed in reverse. Didn't Melb and someone do a trade that involved one club agreeing not to bid on a particular player as collateral?

You mean Viney, GWS and pick 3? Viney was never rated that high so why would they bid, that's tinfoil hat stuff.

 

[Great8]

Are Essendon not satisfied with bringing the game into disrepute already?

If I was Clayton I'd let them have Bowes. Gives us a chance of picking up a better player in Brodie, McLuggage, SPS or Ainsworth with pick 4, then another with Pick 8 (Melbourne) maybe Venables or McGrath, then a few more along with Scheer with our 4 x picks in the twenties. Jack then gets homesick after 2 years and comes back to the coast for a second rounder.

It's not bringing the game into disrepute at all but I can't see us doing it anyway. Still think we will trade it out if possible

 

[citizen-erased]

Are Essendon not satisfied with bringing the game into disrepute already?

If I was Clayton I'd let them have Bowes. Gives us a chance of picking up a better player in Brodie, McLuggage, SPS or Ainsworth with pick 4, then another with Pick 8 (Melbourne) maybe Venables or McGrath, then a few more along with Scheer with our 4 x picks in the twenties. Jack then gets homesick after 2 years and comes back to the coast for a second rounder.

how would bidding on an academy kid = bringing the game into disrepute?

too risky for mine.
Don't know a lot about Bowes, but he isn't generating the same talk as Hopper and Mills so unlikely to be worth Pick 1.
Not sure 1 has value to GCS given i doubt any of Essendon, Freo or Brisbane are likely to bid before pick 4 rolls around.
So 4 = 1 to me and trading for it makes no sense.

I don't see any deal that sees 1 go anywhere else unless we swap it for someone like Crouch and Adelaide's 1st.
But even then, it seems unlikely

 

[M Malice]

IMO both the giants and suns would love to trade up for the number 1 pick. the suns have said no although this could be a tactic to get a better deal.

suns scenario/possible trade- d.prestia + pick 21 for pick 1. or picks 5 and 8 for pick 1.

giants scenario/possible trade- 2 of marchbank/tomlinson/steele + pick 17 for pick 1. or marchbank + pick 7 for pick 1.

with bowes and perryman or setterfield likely to be bid on before their current first pick it would be a waste of a potential other draft gun. both clubs would still have plenty of draft points to select their academy boys.

they would get a elite young talent on top of their academy guns, a no brainer for me.

 

[citizen-erased]

IMO both the giants and suns would love to trade up for the number 1 pick. the suns have said no although this could be a tactic to get a better deal.

suns scenario/possible trade- d.prestia + pick 21 for pick 1. or picks 5 and 8 for pick 1.

giants scenario/possible trade- 2 of marchbank/tomlinson/steele + pick 17 for pick 1. or marchbank + pick 7 for pick 1.

with bowes and perryman or setterfield likely to be bid on before their current first pick it would be a waste of a potential other draft gun. both clubs would still have plenty of draft points to select their academy boys.

they would get a elite young talent on top of their academy guns, a no brainer for me.

GWS could get lucky if the pies lose this weekend and slip a little further.
Gold Coast i think are fine. I would do 1 for 4&8 in a heartbeat, but i don't see Bowes being bid on in the first 3, esp with Brodie, McC, SPS and Ainsworth around, plus Marshall being around and Freo, Brissy and the Dons crying out for a FF.
GCS will likely have another top 6-7 pick from Prestia as well if either of the Tigers or Blues land him.

 

[M Malice]

GWS could get lucky if the pies lose this weekend and slip a little further.
Gold Coast i think are fine. I would do 1 for 4&8 in a heartbeat, but i don't see Bowes being bid on in the first 3, esp with Brodie, McC, SPS and Ainsworth around, plus Marshall being around and Freo, Brissy and the Dons crying out for a FF.
GCS will likely have another top 6-7 pick from Prestia as well if either of the Tigers or Blues land him.

probably more likely the giants would deal with you i agree. although a lot of phantom drafters have Bowes in the top 3 so it would be a bit of a risk on the suns behalf to go in with pick 4 and 8 and say one other top 10 pick (prestia) and then he gets bid on early. i am not right up with the points system and how it would work in that situation, i assume they would forfeit pick 4 and maybe part of the next and then how it plays out from there i don't know.

either way i think essendon are in a good situation re what to do with pick 1 unless they jag another win this year and that pick falls to the lions or if the lions land a beginning of first round PP. would you take Presta and pick 21 for pick 1?

 

[IanW]

either way i think essendon are in a good situation re what to do with pick 1 unless they jag another win this year and that pick falls to the lions or if the lions land a beginning of first round PP. would you take Presta and pick 21 for pick 1?

No. They arent in a good place - there is a band of players at the top, with no standout #1 pick, and their team has the number of holes.

Thus all the scenario planning by Essendon supporters about how to turn the #1 into multiple assets.

 

[Redeye Rambler]

Purely hypothetical, but consider this:

What if Essendon and Dodoro planned to use pick one to wipe GWS and GC out of the draft?

They could potentially use pick one to bid on Bowes, forcing Gold Coast to move up the draft order and sacrifice much of their draft hand in order to secure him.

Then, holding pick 2, they could do the same thing to GWS by bidding on Setterfield.

Now I'm sure Gold Coast would not let Bowes go, but I'm less sure about GWS.

What I find interesting about this, is the threat of wiping both clubs out of the top end of the draft in exchange for one player each might be an interesting point of leverage in trade negotiations.

Would GWS for example by more inclined to trade with Essendon to relieve them of pick one and avoid that scenario?

As I said, purely hypothetical, I in no way think this is actually what will happen, but I find the possibility of it interesting.

What do you think?

To run with your hypothetical, and the bids are matched, and draft positions stay where they currently are.
Essendon bid at pick 1. Gold Coast match. Gold Coast pick 5 moves to pick 1 and their pick 8 drops to 63.leaving them with picks something like 10, 21, 22, 26, 40, 58 & 63.
Essendon bid with pick 2 and gws match. They will use pick 7 and pick 14 drops to 49. they then hold picks 15, 17, 33, 35, 49, 53 & 71.
Both clubs all hold plenty of assets in the draft.

 

[Suma Magic]

GWS and GC have to consider the impact of their decision on future years.

I'd back them to think long-term.

 

[citizen-erased]

probably more likely the giants would deal with you i agree. although a lot of phantom drafters have Bowes in the top 3 so it would be a bit of a risk on the suns behalf to go in with pick 4 and 8 and say one other top 10 pick (prestia) and then he gets bid on early. i am not right up with the points system and how it would work in that situation, i assume they would forfeit pick 4 and maybe part of the next and then how it plays out from there i don't know.

either way i think essendon are in a good situation re what to do with pick 1 unless they jag another win this year and that pick falls to the lions or if the lions land a beginning of first round PP. would you take Presta and pick 21 for pick 1?

Definitely. Prestia is proven and I'd be keen on his skills (he'd essentially be what we'd get in Brodie or mcC anyway) plus 19 and 21

 

[juss]

Purely hypothetical, but consider this:

What if Essendon and Dodoro planned to use pick one to wipe GWS and GC out of the draft?

They could potentially use pick one to bid on Bowes, forcing Gold Coast to move up the draft order and sacrifice much of their draft hand in order to secure him.

Then, holding pick 2, they could do the same thing to GWS by bidding on Setterfield.

Now I'm sure Gold Coast would not let Bowes go, but I'm less sure about GWS.

What I find interesting about this, is the threat of wiping both clubs out of the top end of the draft in exchange for one player each might be an interesting point of leverage in trade negotiations.

Would GWS for example by more inclined to trade with Essendon to relieve them of pick one and avoid that scenario?

As I said, purely hypothetical, I in no way think this is actually what will happen, but I find the possibility of it interesting.

What do you think?

I'm no expert on the rules, but wouldn't this be a form of draft tampering?

 

[Cripps 'n' Blue Bloods]

GWS could get lucky if the pies lose this weekend and slip a little further.
Gold Coast i think are fine. I would do 1 for 4&8 in a heartbeat, but i don't see Bowes being bid on in the first 3, esp with Brodie, McC, SPS and Ainsworth around, plus Marshall being around and Freo, Brissy and the Dons crying out for a FF.
GCS will likely have another top 6-7 pick from Prestia as well if either of the Tigers or Blues land him.

I think anyone would... except the team giving up 4 & 8.
Pick 1 is worth 3000 points. 4 = 2034 points and 8 = 1551 points, that's a total of 3585 points.
GC would be losing over 500 points. The only way a GWS or GC would give up 2 x 1st rounders for a top 3 pick, is if they are gaining academy points.

 

[Jade]

I'm no expert on the rules, but wouldn't this be a form of draft tampering?

I actually don't think so.

Because it's not an agreement per se, so much as it's forcing a clubs hand similar to bidding on Silvagni last year.

So no, not draft tampering.