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Certified Legendary Thread Race for the flag, in squiggly lines
- Thread starter Final Siren
- Start date
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Membling
Brownlow Medallist
Bump... the mare continues
I dont mind.
The squiggle needs to retire. It's been completely all over the shop. Reminds me of projections in SuperCoach. When your projected to roll a bloke by 400 but somehow you get smashed.
Millky95
Starchild > You
Pretty poor finals series for the Squiggle. Interesting to see if the flagpole comes through
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Don't blame squiggle. The Bulldogs have been defying everyone.
The Squiggle is not really equipped to assess a team that has actually just scrapped through with significant personnel unavailable. The return of plenty of those injured players has simply meant they have been able to play much better than squiggle could ever predict.
The Squiggle is not really equipped to assess a team that has actually just scrapped through with significant personnel unavailable. The return of plenty of those injured players has simply meant they have been able to play much better than squiggle could ever predict.
- Oct 26, 2009
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Swans seem to be in their sweet spot for flags...
Doggies should have no chance according to squiggle...
Squiggle needs to man up and put its house on the Swans to win
Doggies should have no chance according to squiggle...
Squiggle needs to man up and put its house on the Swans to win
The swans zone seems to equal unpredictability, and the doggies are also in that zone. Closest seems to be 2009.
Id say 2008 for the 'underdog vector' but both grand finalist that year were firmly among the past premierships zone
Me? im going thold favourite 'sunglasses in the gf parade predictor. Hopefuly bevo coaches his guys well
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SJ
Premium Platinum
No one picked the Dogs for wins in all of weeks 1-3. You'd be doing well if you tipped them more than once.
The Squiggle is not meant to be an expert tipper. All it knows are scores and home grounds. Footy watchers know far more than that and we still couldn't get most of these results either!
Dannnnnnnnnn
Moderator
- Aug 24, 2012
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- #8,559
I take it back.
tazaa
Hall of Famer
Squiggle is on 2/8 correct tips for finals?
Half the reason, the unequal draw, for squiggle is missing in finals
- Banned
- #8,563
At this point the squiggle is basically a crime against humanity.
Only one man can save us now.
Only one man can save us now.
tad off topic (and probably wholly unnecessary...), but that is not how the saying 'exception that proves the rule' should be used. it refers to a situation where an exception is identifiable - such as 'no smoking during dinner service' - that helps identify the rule that smoking at times outside dinner service is allowed. it doesnt make sense to say that, because an exception to a general proposition has been demonstrated it somehow strengthens that general proposition. it clearly and logically weakens 'a rule' when an exception is found, it doesnt prove it - saying that a rule is more true by not always being true, essentially.
i dont think this says anything much about the squiggle, beyond perhaps its a simple algorithm with simple inputs that makes no claim of being infallible. some years its very accurate, some years its very average, and some years its very inaccurate.
squiggle hasnt had a decent finals series, but i tried my hand at a tipping comp for the first time in my life and squiggle absolutely smashed me during the regular season and the finals. the most ridiculous part of this was that i decided to base my tipping on the damn squiggle, and still managed to do far worse than it. the only finals game ive got right so far was adelaide v north...
My algorithm is running at 4/8 this final series - I missed Sydney v GWS and all three Bulldogs wins.
- Aug 18, 2009
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I'm back! What did I miss?
swansfan51
Brownlow Medallist
- Jun 3, 2007
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I wish I had better news. Your club now has the longest active grand final drought
cryptor
Brownlow Medallist
- May 11, 2008
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Nothing much. Everything went as expected.
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tazaa
Hall of Famer
As soon as you left everything went to shit man
Now that your back Doggies fans wont be too happy
- Aug 18, 2009
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A quick review of the last couple of weeks! I'll post a proper Grand Final preview later.
So first, obviously, OMG BULLDOGS. In no way did the squiggle see this coming. What that means is that while most teams reveal themselves through their spread of results throughout the year, the Bulldogs almost immediately transitioned from a team that was fairly average in the latter half of the home & away season (losing to Fremantle & St Kilda, struggling against Richmond, North & Collingwood, getting belted by Geelong) into a GODDAMN FINALS POWERHOUSE.
Now a stats guy like me will say this is almost certainly an aberration, and the Dogs are heading for a nasty collision with the reality train this Saturday afternoon. Because it's just so unusual. But WHAT IF THE DOGS ARE JUST SUDDENLY GOOD. I think we should run with this possibility. I mean, I'm a writer, too; I like stories, and this one is amazing. You have to enjoy the delicious suspension of probabilities, where anything might happen, before they collapse into something that did.
Also it's worth noting that the Bulldogs foxed the squiggle last year, too, when they abruptly changed from a 14th-placed team in 2014 into a 2015 finalist. Usually you can see that coming to a degree, because the 14th-placed team starts beating up the real cellar dwellers and juuuuust falling short against better teams. Or, in reverse, if a team is headed down the ladder, they start getting belted in losses and juuuuust falling over the line in wins. So their scores lead their ladder position. But the Dogs didn't do that: instead, they just suddenly got better in 2015.
Anyway, more on that in the GF preview, later.
The other surprising thing this finals series is how many times the away team has won! Although that's mostly still due to the Dogs. But home teams won 78% of non-grand finals in the 20 years to 2014, then 50% (4-4) last year, and 38% (3-5) this year.
Hawthorn: It's easy to say that this was statistics catching up to the hawks, who were due to drop a close one. So I will. That's what it was. They could have easily been in a prelim. But much more easily, they could not have finished top 4 in the first place. They're a good team, but a long way from where they were in 2015.
North Melbourne: About like everyone thought.
Geelong: Such a hard team to rate all year, because they delivered better results against strong teams than weak ones. We humans usually consider that a sign that a team will excel in finals. But no. For a season with so many wild swings, they wound up performing at about the level you'd think if you averaged out all their results.
Adelaide: Oh, Adelaide. It could have been different! But it wasn't. They still finish in a very respectable area of the chart, playing the kind of football I think is explosive enough to get out of jail most of the time, when you're not up against Sydney at the SCG. But that's where they had to go, and they weren't good enough to scale the mountain.
GWS: See you next year. I don't want to. But I know I will.
Here is how Flagpole stands at the moment. It expects a big Sydney victory, of course, BUT WHAT WOULD IT KNOW. The Swans have really only been high since Round 20, when they started packaging big scores along with their ability to choke the life out of opposition forwards. For most of the year, the more attacking teams sat higher, and all those are out of the finals now.
Post-Prelims 2016
So first, obviously, OMG BULLDOGS. In no way did the squiggle see this coming. What that means is that while most teams reveal themselves through their spread of results throughout the year, the Bulldogs almost immediately transitioned from a team that was fairly average in the latter half of the home & away season (losing to Fremantle & St Kilda, struggling against Richmond, North & Collingwood, getting belted by Geelong) into a GODDAMN FINALS POWERHOUSE.
Now a stats guy like me will say this is almost certainly an aberration, and the Dogs are heading for a nasty collision with the reality train this Saturday afternoon. Because it's just so unusual. But WHAT IF THE DOGS ARE JUST SUDDENLY GOOD. I think we should run with this possibility. I mean, I'm a writer, too; I like stories, and this one is amazing. You have to enjoy the delicious suspension of probabilities, where anything might happen, before they collapse into something that did.
Also it's worth noting that the Bulldogs foxed the squiggle last year, too, when they abruptly changed from a 14th-placed team in 2014 into a 2015 finalist. Usually you can see that coming to a degree, because the 14th-placed team starts beating up the real cellar dwellers and juuuuust falling short against better teams. Or, in reverse, if a team is headed down the ladder, they start getting belted in losses and juuuuust falling over the line in wins. So their scores lead their ladder position. But the Dogs didn't do that: instead, they just suddenly got better in 2015.
Anyway, more on that in the GF preview, later.
The other surprising thing this finals series is how many times the away team has won! Although that's mostly still due to the Dogs. But home teams won 78% of non-grand finals in the 20 years to 2014, then 50% (4-4) last year, and 38% (3-5) this year.
Hawthorn: It's easy to say that this was statistics catching up to the hawks, who were due to drop a close one. So I will. That's what it was. They could have easily been in a prelim. But much more easily, they could not have finished top 4 in the first place. They're a good team, but a long way from where they were in 2015.
North Melbourne: About like everyone thought.
Geelong: Such a hard team to rate all year, because they delivered better results against strong teams than weak ones. We humans usually consider that a sign that a team will excel in finals. But no. For a season with so many wild swings, they wound up performing at about the level you'd think if you averaged out all their results.
Adelaide: Oh, Adelaide. It could have been different! But it wasn't. They still finish in a very respectable area of the chart, playing the kind of football I think is explosive enough to get out of jail most of the time, when you're not up against Sydney at the SCG. But that's where they had to go, and they weren't good enough to scale the mountain.
GWS: See you next year. I don't want to. But I know I will.
Here is how Flagpole stands at the moment. It expects a big Sydney victory, of course, BUT WHAT WOULD IT KNOW. The Swans have really only been high since Round 20, when they started packaging big scores along with their ability to choke the life out of opposition forwards. For most of the year, the more attacking teams sat higher, and all those are out of the finals now.
Gydafud
Premium Platinum
So if the dogs win, will they be one of the "lowest" rated teams on the squiggle? Or would a potential victory catapult them right up into the premiership zone?
- Aug 18, 2009
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Not unless it's a monumental smashing. It would almost certainly be the lowest-ranked flag.
But, you know, you'd take it.
I think the season end bye threw the squiggle off course.
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